Twins Acquire JJ Hardy

We knew JJ Hardy was getting dealt this offseason. We also knew that the Twins could use a long-term answer at shortstop. Today, the Twins and Brewers announced a rare one-for-one swap today. Milwaukee sends SS JJ Hardy to Minnesota. The Twins send OF Carlos Gomez to the Brewers.

This is a tremendous deal for the Twins. Orlando Cabrera was a good stop-gap deadline pickup, but he is getting old. Hardy fits in with Minnesota's style of solid fundamentals. He plays a great defensive shortstop, and adds a little right-handed pop to the lineup. If he bounces back some at the plate (as he should), he will add some nice depth in the lineup behind Mauer, Morneau, Jason Kubel, and Michael Cuddyer. Carlos Gomez is not a huge loss to the Twins either, given the emergence of Denard Span. Gomez is young, and has lots of potential, but Hardy is a long-term solution at a position of much greater need for Minnesota.

As for the Brewers, I wonder a little what might have been. Hardy was Milwaukee's best trade chip, and has been for the past year. Additionally, their biggest holes were clearly in the starting rotation. Since Mike Cameron is a free agent, Carlos Gomez presumably takes his place in the starting lineup. He is one of the few guys who is actually a defensive upgrade over Cameron, but he is a far cry from Cameron at the plate (and I think always will be).

Carlos Gomez is a nice acquisition for the Brewers, and it wouldn't surprise me if he breaks out a bit at the plate in 2010. Between him and Alcides Escobar, Milwaukee may finally be able to shift Rickie Weeks down in the lineup, where his power and patience can be better used to drive in runs. Still, with such glaring holes in the rotation, and such a valuable trade chip as Hardy, I would not have pulled the trigger on this deal so fast. I would have wanted to see if other offers would have come in. I don't think this is a bad deal for Milwaukee, but it's not a slam dunk, and it would have taken a slam dunk for me to trade JJ Hardy a little over 24 hours into the offseason.

Hardy Down And Hall Out

Remember all the trade rumors around Brewers SS JJ Hardy? How he would have been a perfect fit for the Mariners, with their clear need to upgrade at shortstop, and SS Alcides Escobar sitting in AAA for Milwaukee? Especially once Jack Z got hired by Seattle, a trade never seemed imminent, but awfully realistic.

In the end, JJ Hardy stayed in Milwaukee. He's on the move now though.

He's going to Nashville, as in AAA Nashville. Alcides Escobar will take his place on the major league roster. Also, the Brewers designated INF/OF Bill Hall for assignment. Hall had a big year in 2006, and cashed in with a lucrative contract. He is still due around $10 million before the 2011 season, so that looks pretty bad at this point. Hall is too versatile to not get a chance with another team though, especially only for the veteran minimum that another team would have have to pay to Hall.

JJ Hardy is the more interesting case. He has really struggled at the plate this year, and the Brewers are in a bit of a tailspin right now. Changes were likely, and on some level sending Hardy down is a logical move. Escobar is one of baseball's best prospects right now. He is the reason Hardy has been rumored in trades for most of this season.

However, why send Hardy down now? Why bring up Alcides Escobar now? It feels a bit like a move for the future, a bit as if the Brewers are waving the white flag. Presumably, Alcides Escobar could grab the shortstop job and never look back.

However, if it was a move for the future, where does that leave JJ Hardy? It has seemed likely that Hardy would be traded once Milwaukee decided Escobar was ready, and it also seemed likely that Hardy could net a helpful pitcher in a deal. Sending Hardy down should hurt his trade value.

But does it?

Hardy, if he is down long enough, may have to wait another year for free agency. That could increase his value some. Would that really be the main reason that the Brewers sent him down though? I doubt it, but it's an interesting twist to the move.

More than anything, it is just kind of fun to watch players on other teams that have been talked about as potential Mariners. With Jack Wilson in the fold, JJ Hardy doesn't make sense for the M's anymore. He will make sense for someone though, and it's hard to see exactly what the Brewers are thinking right now. That's not to say they have made bad moves today, just ones that could be motivated by a number of factors.

Another Cheap Shortstop Option

With the All Star Break, there is not much use in updating the projected standings until next week. Thankfully, there is a little trade deadline news.

The middle infield trade options are thinner, at least for the time being. Word out of Pittsburgh is that the Pirates are looking to sign 2B Freddy Sanchez and SS Jack Wilson to contract extensions. The two are quite good friends, so good that neither will re-up without the other. It is an interesting turn of events, considering both seemed halfway out the door a week ago.

This is a disappointing turn of events for the Mariners. Both Jack Wilson and Freddy Sanchez would be good fits in Seattle, and the two teams matched up reasonably well in a possible deal. From Pittsburgh's perspective though, locking the duo up makes great sense. Neither is blocking a good-looking prospect. Keeping a few veterans would help restore the team's credibility with the fan base too, though I doubt anyone has forgotten that the team locked up Nate McLouth long-term in the offseason, and traded him for prospects midway through this year.

Anyway, where does this leave the Mariners?

The first thing is to look at Ronny Cedeno, the worst bat in the lineup. Sure, his hitting stinks, but his defense has been good. Yuni was by far the worst defensive shortstop in baseball, and if Ronny keeps up his current pace, he is arguably in the tier right below the elite players this year. On top of that, his BABIP is a stunning .200, and for his career it is .289 (including the .200 average this year). Granted, .289 is not great, but Cedeno has had horrible luck. Even with all his strikeouts, his batting line should be closer to .205/.242/.356, which is still awful, but less awful. It makes him Yuni Betancourt version 2009 awful, but with way better defense.

So, the goal is to find an upgrade at shortstop. There are a couple of options often discussed out there:

• Julio Lugo, INF, Red Sox - Boston may have to DFA or release Lugo any day now as guys return from the DL. Julio is in his 30s, so he is older. He is hitting decently well this year, and would be an upgrade at the plate. However, Lugo's defense has slipped dramatically this year. He certainly doesn't fit the Ryan Langerhans/Jack Hannahan light-hitting, great defense, cheap pick-up mold. I'm not sure he is better than Ronny Cedeno.
• J.J. Hardy, SS, Brewers - Hardy would clearly be an upgrade over Cedeno, as well as nearly any shortstop in baseball. He has a league average bat at a position with few league average hitters, and combines that with killer defense. Hardy is also just 26 years old, but all indications are that Alcides Escobar is Milwaukee's shortstop of the future. Alcides is sitting in AAA, tantalizingly easy to call up. On top of all that, the Brewers could use pitching, so guys like Erik Bedard and Jarrod Washburn must look attractive to them. I would be willing to part with one of them to get Hardy.

The Mariners should not go after Lugo, and I doubt they will. They should pursue Hardy, and I'm sure they are. You know Zduriencik has a good relationship with the front office personnel that he was working for at this time last year. I would dangle Erik Bedard, and if that's not enough, throw Jeff Clement in. I'd try to sell Milwaukee on the idea that they could use Clement at first base if Prince Fielder leaves once his contract is up, which appears likely.

Still, if the Brewers want a few more prospects for Hardy, he might cost a little too much for the Mariners. However, there is a cheaper option that is worth considering:

• Omar Quintanilla, SS, Rockies - At 27 years old, Omar is neither young nor old. He is yet to have success in the majors, and won't ever get an opportunity in Colorado with Troy Tulowitzki around. In fact, Quintanilla only has 32 at-bats all year despite playing in the NL, where pinch-hitters are used much more often. He is buried on the Rockies bench.

There is a reason Omar rides the pine though. He didn't hit well at all as Tulowitzki's injury replacement last year, especially away from spacious Coors Field. In fact, he has seen action in bits and pieces of the past five seasons, including this one, and never hit.

Why does Omar Quintanilla intrigue me then?

Quintanilla has fielded pretty well, despite the offensive struggles. On top of that, his minor league track record at the plate is much more solid than his MLB shortcomings would suggest. The only similar defensive players to Omar I could find are guys like Augie Ojeda, Robert Andino, and Paul Janish. Those players do not hit either, but give no reason to believe that they are better than they have shown.

There is no way Omar would cost that much. I would offer Josh Wilson and Roy Corcoran, and see what the Rockies say. Colorado is looking for bullpen help, and maybe they would take a chance on a guy like Corcoran for such a small loss to them. Trading a struggling middle reliever for a potential starting shortstop would be good for the M's, and trading a useless bench player for a possible bullpen upgrade would be good for the Rockies.

Omar Quintanilla is essentially another Ronny Cedeno. He's got a good glove, but is yet to hit in the majors despite a track record of success in the minors. Collect enough guys like that, and one is bound to pan out.

Trade Worth Exploring #3

There are a couple versions of this deal. I am not sure if either are realistic, but they are worth exploring.

Brewers trade SS J.J. Hardy to the Mariners for SS Yuniesky Betancourt, SP Jarrod Washburn, RP J.J. Putz, and RP Mark Lowe

Why it makes sense for the Mariners: The Mariners need offense and defense, and they have a logjam in their pitching staff. While the loss of Putz would be noticed, Washburn and Lowe's combined 2008 production is replaceable from within, and Hardy would be a major upgrade over Betancourt.

Why it makes sense for the Brewers: With Ben Sheets and CC Sabathia hitting the free agent market (and Salomon Torres unexpectedly retiring), Milwaukee has all sorts of pitching holes. Washburn and Putz would fill a couple of them. Betancourt would be a downgrade at shortstop, but Milwaukee thinks top prospect Alcides Escobar is nearly ready for the majors anyway. If he is ready now, Betancourt could slide over to second, and Milwaukee's infield defense would be better than last year's. All of those are fairly short-term fixes though, so Mark Lowe is a piece that can stay in the organization for years to come, given that they are giving up a young shortstop that could be a Mariner for years to come.

Problems with the deal: The legitimacy of this deal is contingent on what the Brewers think of Betancourt and Lowe. Do they still think Yuni is a great fielder, and could be a decent hitter? Do they think Mark Lowe can re-gain the dominance he flashed when he first came up? If they say yes to both, this deal should be tempting. If they say no to both (as I would), they will probably look for better deals.

I'm not sure how Milwaukee would react to trade posed above. If they rejected it, I would make the follwing offer:

Brewers trade 2B Rickie Weeks and SS J.J. Hardy to the Mariners for SS Yuniesky Betancourt, SP Erik Bedard, RP J.J. Putz, OF Jeremy Reed, and RP Mark Lowe.

Why it makes sense for the Mariners: It's pretty much the same as above. The Mariners need offense and defense. Rickie Weeks could be the DH (as the M's try to move him to the outfield), and J.J. Hardy becomes the every-day shortstop. They M's also alleviate their pitching logjam with this deal.

Why it makes sense for the Brewers: If Bedard and Putz return to All-Star form, they more than offset the loss of J.J. Hardy, especially if Alcides Escobar is ready for the majors. Even if Escobar isn't ready though, Betancourt can play shortstop and utility man Bill Hall could take over at second. The bench would not be left bare thanks to Jeremy Reed, who is a decent pinch-hitting option and solid fourth outfielder.

Problems with the deal: How healthy do the Brewers think Putz and Bedard are, and how much are the Brewers thinking only about next year? This would be a risky trade with the possibility for big immediate returns. If they like Betancourt and Lowe enough as long-term options, this deal would look more attractive to them.

The Mariners should aggressively pursue a J.J. Hardy trade. If the Brewers are intrigued by J.J. Putz, Erik Bedard, and Jarrod Washburn, there may be a deal to be made. Hardy would be an upgrade offensively and defensively, and he is also under team control for a few years before he is even eligible for free agency. Beltre and Hardy would be oen of the best left diamond combos in all of baseball.