Erik Bedard, The Sequel

He's back, and this time he didn't cost the farm, and he isn't expected to be an ace. Erik Bedard is returning, to the tune of $1.5 million guaranteed with boatloads of incentives that could net him up to $8.5 million when it is all said and done.

The deal itself is another good one. Yes, Bedard has some serious injury concerns. However, is he that much worse than Ben Sheets, who got $10 million guaranteed from the A's? Here are their cumulative numbers from the last three seasons, side-by-side:

	Erik Bedard	Ben Sheets
Game Started	58	55
Innings	346	339.2
Hits	276	319
Walks	128	74
Strikeouts	383	264
Home Runs	36	34
WHIP	1.17	1.16
ERA	3.20	3.40

How exactly did one of these guys get $10 million guaranteed, while the other got only $1.5 million (plus lots of incentives)?

Also, if you care about the difference in leagues (and you should), Sheets compiled his numbers in the National League, which has clearly been weaker for many years now. Furthermore, Sheets missed ALL of last year, while Bedard missed significant parts of the last two years. Maybe that points to more chronic injury concerns for Erik, but at the same time, I think it makes him less of an enigma heading into this season.

Given that Bedard is guaranteed to miss at least a few months, I can see how Sheets would net more guaranteed money. The gap between the contracts is too extreme though.

Anyway, that's all to say that this is a good deal for the Mariners, based on the market set this off-season. However, what does this deal do for the Mariners on the field?

The short answer is nothing, and as the season rolls along, hopefully something. Bedard probably comes back sometime in June, and he will be rusty. It is one thing to get back on the field, and another to regain form. This could especially be the case with Bedard, considering his big pitch is a devastating curve ball. The thing has so much movement it was hard for him to control even when he was at his best, as evidenced by all the walks. Even if Bedard retains his curve's devastating movement after arm surgery, he will have to rediscover his feel for it. That likely translates to lots of walks, which means many precarious (and brief) outings.

However, the upside is inescapable. What if Bedard rounds back into form after a couple months back on the mound? He should get sharper as the season progresses. The M's could roll out three pitchers capable of completely shutting down teams on a routine basis. In a playoff series, that would be terrifying for an opponent.

The terms of the deal are interesting too. Although the M's budget is unknown, it seems unlikely that they had $8.5 million left to spend. I seriously doubt that Bedard earns all the incentives, even though I have no idea what it takes for them to kick in. Still, ownership had to sign off on the deal, which means they are willing to potentially pay that much if everything goes a certain way. I'd think part of the reason is because, realistically, if Erik reaches his incentives, the M's have three aces, and that is probably enough to make the playoffs.

Still, it's worth noting what this deal signals about what we don't know. I think part of the reason Jack Z adamantly refutes budget rumors is because it is probably fluid. He will lobby for more money if a deal warrants it, and I think he did to make the Bedard deal happen. Ownership seems to be open to Z's persuasion too, and trusts him enough to go potentially beyond budget if it means winning big.

What a difference a couple years makes. Erik Bedard came to the Mariners the anointed ace, with all the pressure to be the missing piece. He came to Seattle a little surly, very stand-offish, and with a promise to test free agency when he got the chance. With how things went, it was so easy to hate him.

Now, Bedard comes back on an incentive-laden deal. He said Seattle was his top choice, and he sees himself as starter 3A once healthy. This is not the same pitcher, or situation, but ironically enough, the stage is set for him to be the missing piece the M's thought they were getting in the first place.

Sequels tend to be disappointments, but here's hoping that this one is different. There are good reasons to think it will be too.

Keep Them Coming

Several people, such as the venerable Rob Neyer in this post, are scratching their heads over the M's recent additions. Ryan Garko seemed to especially spark questions. The two main questions seem to be:

1. Where is the playing time?
2. Where is the roster space?

As good as the questions being asked are, those answers will come in spring training. They don't matter right now. Jack Zduriencik's goal is to acquire talent. The team designated RHP Gaby Hernandez for assignment to make room for Garko. Is Garko a more talented player, and more likely to contribute, than Hernandez? Absolutely, and that upgrade essentially cost $150,000...unless Garko racks up plate appearances, and in that case his use will justify giving him more money.

This is an odd free agent market. MLB Trade Rumors over the weekend noted that 37 former all-stars were still available in free agency (that number has shrunk some with signings this week). Still, the point is that there is a surprising amount of proven talent available only a few weeks before pitchers and catcher report.

Putting talent on the field is always a good thing. Giving up talent is a bad thing. If the Mariners had cut loose Dustin Ackley to make room for Garko then this would be a bad move. If they had hamstrung their roster and finances by signing Garko for multiple years and millions of dollars, this could be a bad move. The same goes for Eric Byrnes.

That is not what the Mariners are doing though. They know who the core of this roster is, and it won't get touched. Most of the roster is adjustable, and if a better piece can be added to the adjustable parts, then the move is worth it.

Ryan Garko isn't part of the core. Ditto for Eric Byrnes. As long as they don't cost a piece of the core, or prohibit the Mariners from keeping the core, the question is if they are a better supporting piece than what the team cut loose. I like Byrnes more than I like Tommy Everidge, and I like Garko more than I like Gaby Hernandez. The supporting cast is stronger now than it was at the start of the week. That's a good thing.

The reality is that the Mariners are about out of roster spots for free agents. Well, technically they are completely out of options, but there is a handful of players I am willing to cut loose on the roster if someone better is added on a one-year deal (in other words, added to the supporting cast). So, if Johnny Damon or Orlando Hudson comes knocking on the door, I would invite them in and we would chat. Their talent merits that much, and if they want to join the team on team-friendly terms, I'd strongly consider them.

Ryan Garko Added To The Mix

This morning, the Mariners signed 1B/"OF" Ryan Garko to a one-year deal. Garko will earn $550,000 guaranteed, and could earn up to $1,075,000 through bonuses based on plate appearances.

In Garko, the M's are getting an uninspiring defender with a passable bat. The best qualities he brings is that he is right-handed, and for his career he has hit lefties much better than righties (.882 OPS against lefties compared to .749 against righties over the last three years combined). He is a right-handed bat with a little power, but that's about all he is.

It is hard to say exactly where Garko fits in. It seems that platooning him at DH with Griffey would be best (Griffey the past three years has a .715 OPS versus lefties, and .837 OPS against righties). That would leave Eric Byrnes, Milton Bradley, and Ryan Langerhans vying for two spots in the outfield. Bradley certainly has one of them.

This move is difficult to figure out because the Mariners might not know what's going to happen as of yet either. It may be up to who performs best in spring training. All of them could be kept if the team goes with an 11-man pitching staff too.

Plus, there are injuries to think about too. There is probably playing time for everyone throughout the season, as long as someone can go down to AAA from time to time.

The Mariners have one more option than they did at the start of the morning, and I'd pay $550,000 for that.