2007 Fall and Winter League Spotlights

In the final post of this three-part series, I take a look at the fall and winter leagues. Major League Baseball may wrap up by the end of October, but that is when seasons begin in Arizona, Hawai'i, Mexico, the Dominican Republic, and Venezuela. A diverse set of players participate in these leagues, and a certain number shine. Though there are many others worth mentioning, here are 30 players whose performances are noteworthy. They are organized by league they played in, and a brief introduction to each league is included as well. The parentheses () next to a player's name includes the rating they have based on the stats they have accumulated in the league, followed by their rating according to their minor league numbers in the 2007 regular season.

Arizona Fall League

As you will notice, nearly half of the players highlighted in this post come from the Arizona Fall League (AFL). In essence, the AFL is like the Futures Game that takes place All-Star Weekend, except with more teams and for an entire month. With so much young talent on display, the AFL gets the most coverage of any post-season league. However, since it is only a month long, it is also possible for players to perform drastically above or below their capabilities. For the most part, I focused on the players who performed the absolute best, and even though many performed equally well in the AFL, they are not of equal talent.

RP Mitch Stetter (107, 77/89), Brewers - Stetter's ERA was mysteriously high in the minors, given his impressive numbers. However, he still got a quick look at the end of the season in the majors, and then Milwaukee sent him to the AFL, where he absolutely dominated. A 6'4" left-hander, Stetter definitely deserves to be in Milwaukee's bullpen next year. His numbers suggest he could be the 2008 version of Hideki Okajima (80).

OF Sam Fuld (106, 58/75), Cubs - Fuld was named the AFL MVP, as he should of been with the numbers he put up. With that being said, he played well over his head in the league, and still is not a real interesting prospect. He should start the year in AAA, but will likely get called up at some point in 2008.

RP Dewon Day (99, 66/77), White Sox - Chicago picked Day up in the minor league phase of the Rule 5 Draft a couple years ago, and have unearthed an interesting prospect. Day racks up a ton of strikeouts, but he also racks up a ton of walks. His numbers were much more impressive in the AFL because he cut down on his walks. My guess is that his Fall League performance was a bit of a fluke, but if he continues to show improved command in Spring Training, he may find himself on the opening day roster. Actually, even if his control is erratic he may still wind up on the team. His strikeout numbers are impressive enough to overcome his great weakness.

SP David Purcey (96, 61/78), Blue Jays - Toronto's pitching staff is quite strong, so there is not much of a path for Purcey to crack the majors. However, trading A.J. Burnett (82) may change that. Purcey is no blue-chip prospect, but he should be on the radar at this point.

RP Calvin Medlock (96, 64/81), Rays - Medlock started 2007 in the Cincinnati organization, but was one of the pitchers traded to Tampa Bay for 2B Jorge Cantu (66/77). Medlock is yet to make his Major League debut, but between the Rays atrocious bullpen last season and his success in the fall league, he is in good position to make the Rays opening day roster in 2008.

RP Fernando Hernandez (94, 60/82), White Sox - Fernando is still probably a year away from the majors, but he had a very good year in AA and followed that with a terrific AFL performance. He should be ticketed for AAA for sure in 2008, and may make the majors at some point during the year.

SP Jake Arrieta (93), Orioles - Arrieta was a draft choice this year and only played in the AFL. It will be interesting to see where Baltimore puts him next year, because I am guessing they sent him to the AFL just to give him some pro experience. I doubt they expected a performance quite this good. He did not even allow a run.

OF Brett Gardner (92, 63/81), Yankees - Trade rumors have circled around OF Melky Cabrera (76/86) and OF Hideki Matsui (84), and the team is less than thrilled with OF Johnny Damon's (79) 2007 performance, especially defensively. So, it seems potential outfield spots in the Bronx may be opening up in the next year or two. Gardner has great speed, and has also flashed good hitting ability. He may develop into a solid leadoff hitter, though he is still at least a year away from really pushing for a spot in the majors.

RP Brian Anderson (91, 52/73), Giants - San Francisco already has a pretty good pitching staff, so Anderson does not figure to get much of a look this year. However, his Fall League performance was good enough to merit consideration from other teams in trades which could net the Giants some much-needed younger position talent.

OF Nate Schierholtz (88, 74/87), Giants - The Giants are not completely devoid of young position talent. Nate Schierholtz had a great year in AAA, and he backed that up with a great AFL season. He should be ready to contribute in the major leagues now, though the Giants seem pretty set in the outfield with Randy Winn (80), Rajai Davis (79/85), Dave Roberts (70), and their big free agent signing, Aaron Rowand (84). I would look to trade Winn to a team needing a centerfielder (perhaps the Braves?) and get a couple decent prospects in return (perhaps SS/OF Brent Lillibridge (62/79) and someone else?). Maybe the Braves have no interest in Winn, but Schierholtz should be starting somewhere in the Giants outfield on opening day, and there is no spot for him right now.

OF Travis Snider (85, 46/80), Blue Jays - Really, at 19 years old after a season in A ball, Snider should still be a long way from the majors. However, his AFL performance is tantalizing. He did play in a pitcher-friendly league, and exploding in 2008 after this fall league performance is not out of the question. Snider probably played beyond his actual abilities right now, but he clearly was not outmatched despite being one of the youngest players in this league.

3B Evan Longoria (83, 63/85), Rays - Any hesitancy the Rays may have had handing the hot corner over to Longoria in 2008 seem to be squelched by his fall league performance. Only an injury could stop him from starting for the Rays on opening day at this point.

OF Matt LaPorta (81, 47/78), Brewers - The Brewers top pick in this year's draft (and #1 on my 25TW list) got a little pro experience after signing, and then got more of a look in the fall league. Camparing favorably to guys like Travis Snider and Evan Longoria in a month-long season is not enough to make LaPorta a great prospect himself, but it is a promising start.

3B Matt Tuiasosopo (77, 51/76), Mariners - Tuiasosopo failed miserably in the fall league last year, so while his performance was not spectacular, it was a huge leap forward. His best attribute is his plate discipline, and if he ever shows some power his stock will go up considerably.

Hawai'i Winter League

The Hawai'i Winter League is kind of like the AAA version of the AFL. Teams are only allowed to send a certain number of players to the AFL, and often if they have other younger players who they want to get an extended look at, they ship them to this league. The Hawai'i Winter League has only four teams, and interestingly a high number of Japanese players populate these rosters. Still, a few players from major league teams are worth taking a look at.

SP Blake Wood (90, 46/77), Royals - There were some Japanese pitchers that were better than Wood, but I am guessing they already have commitments to play in Japan. Wood was the best hurler from the states, which probably says more about the talent level of this league than it does about the Wood. He had a nice year in A ball, and a very nice season in Hawaii, but that is the general them with Wood. He is a nice-looking pitcher, but not a great-looking one, and his fantastic performance in Hawai'i does little to change that.

OF Michael Wilson (88, 45/67), Mariners - Wilson had enough of a breakout year in 2006 that the M's felt the need to protect him with a 40-man roster spot. However, if it is possible for a player to un-break-out, Wilson did that in 2007 by seemingly losing all hitting ability. The only thing that salvaged his rating was his tremendous power. Now, in Hawai'i, Wilsons seems to have re-emerged again. His raw power is about as good as it gets, but everything else about his game is checkered with question marks. Because I am not sold on the quality of competition in this league, I am not convinced Wilson has turned it around.

C Matt Wieters (79), Orioles - Wieters was easily the highest profile player in Hawaii, but his performance was not eye-popping. In fact, given that players like Wood and Wilson were significantly better, it is somewhat disappointing that Wieters did not make a stronger showing. However, this was his first taste of pro baseball after sitting around for over three months. Wieters likely had some rust to shake off.

Mexico Winter League

Mexico also has a full summer season, but in the winter some major league players migrate south to join the Mexican stars. Latin America and Japan get plenty of publicity for the baseball talent they produce, but Mexico should not be overlooked. Because this league features many veterans, the competition is much stiffer than in the AFL or Hawai'i. Also, the season is longer, so the performances are a bit more telling of a player's true abilities. Looking at this league, there are several Mexican players that I think are good enough to earn at least bullpen and bench roles in the majors, and I take the time to highlight one pitcher in particular. There were also some players who for sure will be looking to make MLB squads in 2008.

RP Adrian Ramirez (92) - A number of Mexican pitchers have made strong showings in this league, but I chose to highlight Ramirez in particular for a couple reasons. First, he is still young, as he turned 24 in October. Second, he is a left-handed reliever. Listed at 5'6" and 185 pounds, Ramirez is not exactly an imposing figure on the mound, but he obviously does something that makes him hard to hit in an underrated league. Some team should give this guy a look.

SP Dana Eveland (88, 75/88), Athletics - Acquired in the Dan Haren (86/89) mega-deal, Eveland is one of the newest A's, and should have a very good chance to make the A's starting rotation out of spring training. He was injured most of 2007, so my player rater uses his 2006 numbers to determine his rating. If Eveland's Mexico numbers are any indication, it appears he has recovered from his injury well, and should be more than ready to compete in spring training.

1B Jason Botts (84, 71/80), Rangers - Botts has received some fairly long looks in the majors the last couple years, and with 1B Mark Teixeira (87/90) gone figures to have a chance to stay in the majors for all of 2008. He certainly has not hurt his chances with his showing in Mexico this winter.

1B Brian Myrow (82, 78/83), Padres - Myrow has only received nominal looks in the majors the last couple years, in 2006 with Dodgers, and 2007 with the Padres. However, his minor league numbers suggest that he could be a real contributor if given the chance. At 31 years old he is not exactly a prospect at this point, but he is good enough to be on a major league team. Myrow has not shown much power in Mexico, but his .464 on-base percentage is sensational. At worst, he should be a good left-handed pinch-hitter.

Dominican Winter League

The Dominican Republic is a great baseball country, but the winter league is strengthened by the number of players shipped to it by MLB teams for further development. Often, these players are making some major transition, such as from starter to reliever, or from bench player to everyday starter. Also, some players looking for one more chance in the big leagues will perform here, hoping to catch the eye of some MLB team.

RP Julio Manon (92, 73), Athletics - At 34 years old, Manon is a player who is not a prospect, but he also has not logged much time in the majors. He did appear in 23 games for the Expos in 2003, and 22 games for the Orioles in 2006, but his cumulative major league numbers are not that impressive (4.66 ERA, 1.70 WHIP). Manon is not on the A's 40-man roster, so his affiliation with the organization is loose at best. The bottom line is that some team with thin relief pitching (Orioles, Rays, et al.) should give Manon a try.

RP Oneli Perez (91, 62/82), White Sox - Chicago had a couple young relievers light up the AFL, but this young reliever should not be overlooked. He posted great numbers in AA, and figures to be in AAA to start 2008, with a pretty good chance to see some action in the majors before the season over.

OF Vince Sinisi (90, 70/81), Padres - I have read some rumors that the Padres are interested in trading for OF/1B Xavier Nady (76/78) to serve as their top bench player, getting spot starts in the outfield and first base. While I am a fan of Nady, I think Sinisi is an in-house option the team should seriously consider. He had a solid year in AAA that suggests he is a good bench option, and he has backed it up with a huge winter league. Between Sinisi and Brian Myrow (refer to the Mexico League section for more on him), I think the Padres bench is in solid shape as is.

RP Francisco Cruceta (90, 73/85), Rangers - Faithful Rainiers fans may remember Cruceta from 2006, when he led the PCL in strikeouts while pitching for Tacoma, earning a fleeting glance in the majors with the Mariners. The Rangers picked him up off waivers last offseason and he pitched in Oklahoma the entire year, eventually getting switched to the bullpen. He has pitched exclusively out of the bullpen in the Dominican and looked very good. Texas would be wise to give Cruceta a very long look in Spring Training, because he is good enough to contribute to their bullpen.

SS Erick Aybar (74, 62/77), Angels - There is not much about Aybar's offensive game worth getting excited about, which is precisely why I am taking the time to point him out. Aybar, according to Angels manager Mike Scioscia, will get the first chance to replace SS Orlando Cabrera (79). Simply put, he will be a huge offensive downgrade. The Angels would be much wiser to give INF Maicer Izturis (79/83) the starting job, even despite the injury concerns.

Venezuela Winter League

Venezuela's winter league is quite similar to the Dominican Republic's winter league. Even though I do not think there is much of a difference in the talent level between the two leagues, I would send prospects to the Dominican if I were a major league team because of the ongoing political unrest in Venezuela (several years ago the M's pulled Gil Meche out of this league because the political tension was so high). Still, there are players in this league fighting for roster spots that have made strong showings.

RP Francisco Butto (92) - Butto has never appeared in the majors, but was with the Yankees in 2006 and made it as high as AAA. A native Venezualan, he played in the Mexican summer league this past season, where he had a 3.27 ERA with 51 strikeouts in 44 innings pitched. Running his 2006 numbers through my player rater yielded a 56 rating, with a peak of 75. Though I doubt Butto has suddenly transformed into an incredible pitcher, his performance is noteworthy, and considering he is only 27 years old it looks to me like he has developed into a potential middle reliever.

SP Sean White (87, 65/72), Mariners - Most that are paying attention to M's in the winter leagues have focused on Brandon Morrow (75/86) and Ryan Rowland-Smith (73/84) as they have been stretched out to prepare for potential starting rotation spots. However, under the radar, Sean White has also been stretched out, and his WHIP is comfortably under 1.00 for the winter league season. White's already slim chances to make the M's starting staff effectively went to zero with the signing of Carlos Silva (75), but if he does not make the team as a reliever he has shown enough to merit regular starts in AAA.

INF Edgardo Alfonzo (86) - At 34 years old, Edgardo Alfonzo's best days are well behind him. However, in his prime, he was a pretty good player, and it looks like he still has a little something to offer. If the Mariners are serious about bringing someone in to compete with 2B Jose Lopez (68/81) for the starting job, they should give Alfonzo a look. They likely would only need to give him a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training, so there would be no risk at all. I do not think Alfonzo is as good as Lopez, or maybe even the recently acquired Tug Hullett (66/78) at this point, but I think Lopez would perceive Alfonzo as a legitimate threat. A veteran like him could push Lopez to start realizing his potential, and he is the ideal option because he would not require a guaranteed major league contract.

2B Jose Castillo (86, 62/70), Marlins - Castillo was with the Pirates in 2007, and as his rating suggests, did not perform real well (even the Pirates let him go, enough said). He took a step backwards in 2007, but at 26 years old he could still take a couple steps forward. Florida is considering moving Castillo to third base, but they also are toying with the idea of switching 2B Dan Uggla (76/80) to third and keeping Castillo at second, since he is considered the superior defender between the two. Personally, I would stick the better of the two defenders at third base, because it is a more demanding defensive position. That decision is made even easier because Uggla is the incumbent at second. Ultimately, Castillo will not be in the lineup at all if he hits as poorly as he did in 2007. However, looking at his career numbers and strong showing in winter ball, he appears to be poised for a bit of a rebound.

These are only 30 of the hundreds of baseball players performing in these leagues. If history is any guide, huge performances in these leagues lead to better opportunities in spring training, which leads to major league opportunities and success for a couple players each year. The dynamic of watching older guys trying to squeeze one last chance competing against young guys just getting their feet wet as a professional adds a certain character to the winter leagues that even AAA does not have. The collision of prospects at all levels in the AFL is special to that league as well. Every league has at least a couple diamonds in the rough; the only question is if teams find them and give them a chance. They may not be stars, but a quality pinch-hitter or middle reliever is worth something.

2007 25TW List Early Returns

This year, for the second straight year, I compiled a list of college players that the Mariners should consider drafting. I expanded the list from 15 players to 25, but once again none of the guys on my list were selected by the Mariners. They were all drafted though, and in my second end-of-the-year post looking at prospects, here is a look at the early returns for the 2007 25 to Watch (25 TW) list:

25. SP David Newmann (N/A), Rays (4th Round, Pick 1, 125th Overall) - Newmann did not appear at all at any level, so there is not much to say.

24. C/1B Josh Donaldson (53/85), Cubs (Compensation Round, Pick 18, 48th Overall) - Donaldson is listed as a catcher by some and a first baseman by others, so I cannot tell which place the Cubs are using him primarily. He was a catcher in college, so my guess is that he still is primarily a catcher. Regardless, Donaldson put on an offensive show in Boise, batting .346 with a .470 OBP and .605 slugging.

23. SS Dominic de la Osa (N/A), Tigers (10th Round, Pick 27, 331st Overall) - He did not sign with the Tigers, opting to return to Vanderbilt for his senior season. However, de la Osa did play in Cape Cod League over the summer, and did not fare well at all (his batting average was barely over .100). Still, he is an early candidate to make the 2008 25 to Watch.

22. SS Todd Frazier (48/79), Reds (Compensation Round, Pick 4, 34th Overall) - Frazier started out in short season A ball, and then got a brief call-up to low A for the final week of the minor league season. The only thing that kept him from being much higher than this on my list was a worrisome strikeout rate, but so far he has actually cut down on his strikeouts without losing much power. In 182 at-bats between short season A and Low A ball, Frazier batted .319 with a .405 OBP and .538 slugging, with a respectable 26 strikeouts.

21. OF Corey Brown (44/76), Athletics (Compensation Round, Pick 29, 59th Overall) - I had a very hard time figuring out where Brown went in my rankings because he excelled in all facets of the game except for one glaring hole...the incredible amount of strikeouts. I should have known he was destined for the A's. Brown batted only .260 with an alarming 77 strikeouts in 213 at-bats in short season A ball but, like any good Athletic, he got more than his fair share of walks (.379 OBP), and when he made contact, he made it count (.545 slugging). In many ways Brown looks like the next Jack Cust.

20. SP Adam Mills (44/76), Red Sox (8th Round, Pick 20, 264th Overall) - Mills pitched out of relief in short season A ball, so he only got 35.1 innings of work in 14 appearances. However, he only gave up 32 hits, 9 walks, and 3 homers while striking out 37. He was hard to rate also because he exploded his senior year at Charlotte, but to this point it looks like he might be more than a one-year wonder.

19. SP James Simmons (51/77), Athletics (1st Round, Pick 26, 26th Overall) - The A's really put the pedal to the metal with Simmons by starting him out in AA. His numbers aren't overwhelming (29.2 IP, 36 Hits, 8 walks, 23 strikeouts, 3.94 ERA), but considering they started him so high, the statistics are admirable. It seems like Oakland wants Simmons ready to take over a starting spot in the majors by opening day 2009 at the latest.

18. SP Cory Luebke (46/78), Padres (Compensation Round, Pick 33, 63rd Overall) - Luebke started in short season A, but dominated and was moved up to low A. He was impressive there as well (27 innings, 29 hits, 5 walks, 30 strikeouts, 3.33 ERA), and ending up getting two starts in high A, where he struggled. Still, three levels in three months is impressive.

17. SP Ross Detwiler (35/69), Nationals (1st Round, Pick 6, 6th Overall) - Detwiler did get to pitch one inning in the majors, but he is far from ready. Detwiler was overpowering in rookie ball, but only so-so at best once getting called up to high A.

16. SP Josh Collmenter (44/74), Diamondbacks (15th Round, Pick 9, 463rd Overall) - I did not expect Collmenter to last as long as he did in the draft, so I was curious to see if he would be as good as I thought he was heading into the draft. To this point, I would say so. Collmenter made 14 appearances (12 starts) in short season A ball and went 6-3 with a 2.71 ERA and 1.22 WHIP, striking out a respectable 57 batters in 66.1 innings, and giving up only 4 home runs.

15. SP James Adkins (51/82), Dodgers (Compensation Round, Pick 9, 39th Overall) - Los Angeles was ambitious with Adkins and started him off in low A, where he pitched the remainder of the summer. He pitched in only 26 innings, but posted a 1.04 WHIP with better than a strikeout an inning. Adkins is another candidate from this class to begin next season in high A.

14. SP Nick Chigges (46/79), Yankees (13th Round, Pick 30, 424th Overall) - I figured Chigges would last because he played at a small school, but he made plenty of noise in short season A ball. In 55 innings in short season A ball, Chigges posted a 2.29 ERA on the strength of a 1.16 WHIP, 10.15 K/9 rate, and only 3 home runs allowed.

13. C Mitch Canham (41/70), Padres (Compensation Round, Pick 27, 57th Overall) - Canham did not fail, but he did not excel like many of the 25TW did. He hit a respectable .293 with a .379 OBP in short season A ball, but did not show much power, and his strikeout rate went up noticeably as well. Even with such a small sampling size, the two of those combined suggests that the switch to wooden bats has slowed his bat speed considerably. On the other hand, since it is such a small sample size, Canham could have simply had a slump. Next year should provide firmer answers.

12. 2B Tony Thomas (51/86), Cubs (3rd Round, Pick 3, 97th Overall) - Tony really exploded this past year at Florida State, and I was tempted to put him even higher on this list. His torrid hitting continued in short season A ball, where he batted .304 with a .404 OBP, .544 slugging, and added 28 stolen bases in the equivalent of about a third of a season. His strikeout rate was high, but all the positives cannot be ignored.

11. SS Josh Horton (44/72), Athletics (3rd Round, Pick 26, 90th Overall) - The A's did not push Horton as hard as Simmons, but he accumulated most of his at-bats in low A, a level higher than most play the half-season after being drafted. Horton showed very little power (.352 slugging), but he is transitioning to wooden bats, and played in a pitcher-friendly league. On a positive note, his eye was every bit as tremendous as it was in college (.279 average with a .417 OBP in low A). Horton was destined to be an Athletic with his offensive game. More power would be preferred, but that should come as he gets more comfortable with pro ball.

10. SP Travis Banwart (47/79), Athletics (4th Round, Pick 26, 126th Overall) - I went on a small tangent draft day about Banwart and Detwiler, because there was supposedly no question that Detwiler was the superior pitching prospect, even though his numbers were not as impressive as Banwart's in the same conference. It is hard to compare their pro performances thus far because Detwiler bounced all around, but in 45 innings in low A ball, Banwart struck out 41 batters, allowed only 2 home runs, and had a 1.02 WHIP. At the very least, Banwart is off to a nice start in the pros.

9. SP Will Kline (37/67), Rays (2nd Round, Pick 1, 65th Overall) - Kline got 9 starts in the and posted a 4.97 ERA in 29 innings pitched. He had good strikeout and walk rates, but quite simply he was hit significantly harder than in college. Given the ambivalent results in too small of a sampling size to make any conclusions anyway, there's not much more to say other than check back and see how he fares next season.

8. SP Tony Watson (46/78), Pirates (9th Round, Pick 4, 278th Overall) - On draft day, by the sixth round or so I was checking the results because I was sure I had missed Tony Watson getting drafted. I was that surprised to see him fall as far as he did. When the Pirates drafted him, I went as far as to say I think he'll prove to be better than their first round pick, Daniel Moskos. To this point, Tony is living up to my hype. Moskos struggled in short season A ball (1.97 WHIP), while Watson flourished to the point that he got a call-up to low A for his final three starts. Overall, in 13 starts as a pro, Watson had a 2.79 ERA, and struck out 58 while only walking 8. He does give up way more fly balls than ground balls, which may mean he'll eventually give up more than his share of home runs, but to this point he has not. I still say he was a steal at this point in the draft.

7. SP Nick Schmidt (41/72), Padres (1st Round, Pick 23, 23rd Overall) - Schmidt pitched only seven innings before developing a serious elbow injury that required reconstructive elbow surgery. He's already expected to miss all of 2008.

6. 2B Eric Sogard (41/70), Padres (2nd Round, Pick 17, 81st Overall) - Sogard was so-so at best for the month he spent in short season A ball, but got promoted to low A anyway, where he struggled to the tune of a .657 OPS. His strikeout rate did not go up much, but he clearly did not square up the ball too often. Maybe things will be different next year when he gets a chance to settle in at one level.

5. SP Bryan Henry (31/59), Diamondbacks (12th Round, Pick 9, 373rd Overall) - Like Tony Watson, I was stunned that Henry lasted so long. However, it looks like there was good reason that Henry did. In 12 starts, he posted a 5.28 ERA, allowing a whopping 13 home runs in 58 innings, as well as a .302 opponents' batting average. His strikeout to walk ratio was good, but pretty clearly he was catching too much of the plate. Of all 25 on this list, Henry is my early pick for most likely to not make it to the majors.

4. C Matt Wieters (N/A), Orioles (1st Round, Pick 5, 5th Overall) - It was challenging enough for the Orioles to sign Wieters, and he ended up not playing any baseball before the end of the regular season. He is playing in Hawai'i though (check back tomorrow for the Fall and Winter League post to see how he has done). He will be much more interesting to look at next season.

3. 2B Tyler Mach (43/74), Phillies (4th Round, Pick 19, 143rd Overall) - Mach got off to a red-hot start, but slumped by the end of the season. Overall though, his numbers were pretty good. He spent the summer in short season A ball, batting .287 with a .362 OBP and .441 slugging. Given how hot he started, it was disappointing that he did not have better numbers at the end of the season.

2. SP David Price (N/A), Rays (1st Round, Pick 1, 1st Overall) - Price was another signing that came down to the wire, and he is yet to appear in a professional game.

1. OF Matt LaPorta (47/78), Brewers (1st Round, Pick 7, 7th Overall) - LaPorta didn't get much of a chance to play, but it was feast or famine with the small opportunity he got. In 88 at-bats in short season A-Ball, LaPorta had 8 double and 10 home runs, but also 22 strikeouts! All in all, he ended up accumulating a 1.142 OPS in those 88 at-bats, so I would deem it a success. However, it's quite the statistical line to look at. LaPorta also played in the Arizona Fall League, where he batted .241, but with tremendous power once again. In fact, in 227 pro at-bats, LaPorta has 18 doubles, 1 triple, and 18 home runs. However, he also has 58 strikeouts. LaPorta's strikeout rate reduced noticeably over his college career, so it is fair to believe that he can improve it as a professional. However, even it doesn't, his raw power alone is stunning.

Based on early returns, the 2007 25TW list is not much different than the 2006 version. It likely lacks a stud as good as Tim Lincecum (89/93), but few draft classes have a guy like that. Still, Thomas and Donaldson both are off to great starts, and the only player that struggled mightily on the list was Bryan Henry. At best, any player on this list played the equivalent half a season, so it is way to early to give up on anyone, or proclaim them a superstar. However, as a collective whole, the early returns are decent.

Yesterday, the list was 15 long. Today, 25. Tomorrow, I will look at 30 players who have excelled in fall and winter leagues. Some of the names will be repeats (like LaPorta and Wieters), but not many. Some will be veterans who have shown they have a little left in the tank, but most will be young guys trying to crack the big leagues for the first time. Check back tomorrow to see who makes the list.

2006 "15 to Watch" Update

October and November proved to be quite hectic for me, and as a result three posts that I have been planning to write for a long time stayed on the back burner. Now, with 2007 nearly complete, it seems fitting to look back at the 2007 season that was with those posts I put off. The first (this one) is a look at how the players on my 2006 "15 to Watch" (15TW) List fared last season. Tomorrow will look at the 2007 "25 to Watch" (25TW). Finally, Friday I will highlight players who have stood out in the fall and winter leagues this off-season. This is a great way to finish out the calendar year because young guns that make noise in the majors in 2008 will likely have made some noise in the minors in 2007.

Now, on to the 2006 15TW. Honestly, this list started as a day project only about a week before the draft. I was convinced that, as a general rule, the best baseball players in college tend to become the best players in the pros. So, I set out to find the best players in college and I came up with the list of 15. Most of the 15 prospects I highlighted back in 2006 now have a full professional season under their belts, so it is time to take a look and see how they fared:

15. 1B Whit Robbins (39/64), Twins - Robbins was impressive the summer after getting drafted, but he struggled mightily in high A. He hit for absolutely no power, and ultimately his season was cut short by an injury. Maybe the injury caused all his problems.

14. 3B Evan Longoria (63/85), Devil Rays - The Rays are moving Akinori Iwamura (73) to second base to make room in the lineup for Longoria next year. He is an early favorite to be the Rookie of the Year, though I think he will not end up winning the award. I see Longoria's year being similar to the one Alex Gordon (72/83) just completed. Regardless, Longoria has bolted through the minors and is one of the better position prospects in baseball right now.

13. OF Chad Huffman (54/80), Padres - Rather quietly, Huffman hit very well in high A and earned a mid-year promotion to AA, where his numbers dropped significantly (.269 average, .362 OBP, .793 OPS). Still, if Huffman continues to progress at his current rate, he could be in the majors by 2009.

12. INF Luke Hopkins, Blue Jays - He did not play at all last season after playing every day in short season A ball in 2006. I cannot find any information on Hopkins, so I do not know what has happened to him.

11. 1B Ryan Strieby (44/75) - Strieby did not fare well last year, but bounced back considerably from his 2006 summer. Strieby's numbers were not outstanding (.253 average, .342 OBP, .769 OPS), but they were pretty solid, especially for a 21-year old in a pitcher-friendly league.

10. SP Brad Lincoln, Pirates - Like Hopkins, Lincoln did not play at all this year, though I know Lincoln did not due to an injury.

9. SP Steven Wright (44/72), Indians - Wright's home run rate in low A was high, but the rest of his numbers were impressive enough to convince the Indians to promote him to high A mid-season. However, Wright struggled in high A, though ironically his home run rate went down a ton. Even after a full season's worth of numbers, the drastic difference between the numbers at the different levels makes it hard to say how good Wright is.

8. SP Wade LeBlanc (56/82), Padres - LeBlanc is one of the more underrated pitching prospects in baseball right now. He was very impressive in high A this year, earning a promotion to AA where he was impressive as well. Baseball America ranks LeBlanc's slider as the best in the Padres' farm system, and it should propel him to AAA in 2008, if not all the way to the majors.

7. OF Jon Jay (48/74), Cardinals - Jay looked great last year, but he struggled some between AA and high A in 2007. He only accumulated 228 at-bats total, so it appears that he was limited by an injury.

6. OF Cole Gillespie (49/74), Brewers - Much like Jay, Gillespie looked unbelievable in 2006, but to a certain degree struggled in 2007. Cole batted only .267 in high A, though he still showed good plate discipline and good speed on the bases. He is already 23, which is a relatively older age for someone in high A too. Gillespie should be in AA next year, and he will need to produce at a pretty high level to be a legitimate prospect.

5. SP Max Scherzer (62/84), Diamondbacks - Max just about did not sign with the D'Backs, so he almost was on the 2007 25TW list. Upon signing and dominating for a few starts in high A, Scherzer spent his summer in AA, where he showed quite a bit of promise. Scherzer has overpowering stuff, as evidenced by a high strikeout rate with low hit and home run rates, but he does not have great control yet, as evidenced by averaging a walk roughly every other inning. He's much like Brandon Morrow (75/86), though more raw.

4. SP Eddie Degerman (51/78), Cardinals - At 23 years old after a fairly strong showing in short season A ball, I am not sure why the Cardinals started Degerman in low A this year. However, they did, and he dominated, eventually getting called up to high A. Eddie's walks went up a ton, but he was still pretty tough to hit. Looking at his numbers, his 5.93 ERA in high A should have been much lower. I would start him in AA next year and see how he does in a league where he is not one of the older members, but to this point St. Louis does not seem quite as interested in pushing him.

3. 1B Craig Cooper (51/78), Padres - Cooper does not have as much power as teams like to see in a first baseman, but he hits for great average with pretty decent gap power. Cooper's lack of power may keep him from being a great prospect, but his pure hitting ability should not be ignored. He will likely start next year in AA, and may be pushing for a bench spot on the Padres by 2009 or 2010.

2. SP Andrew Miller (67/81), Marlins - Originally drafted by the Tigers, he was one of the keys to the deal that landed Detroit 3B Miguel Cabrera (88/92) and SP Dontrelle Willis (70/78). It did not take Miller long to make the majors, and especially considering he is now on the Marlins, he is in the majors to stay. Miller has been a highly regarded prospect since his junior year at North Carolina, and his stuff is among the best in the game. Most see him as a future star, though just to play devil's advocate, for fun compare Miller and Jeff Weaver (63). The starts of their careers are awfully similar.

1. SP Tim Lincecum (89/93), Giants - I raved about Lincecum before the 2006 draft, and was not happy when the M's passed on him. Fortunately, Morrow looks like a really good pick, but he's still not better than Lincecum. Tim has exceeded all expectations, and is already one of the best pitchers in the majors, regardless of age. The combination of his diminutive stature, funky wind-up, and blazing fastball are what he is known for, but it is his curveball that has made him so successful in such short time.

The 2006 15TW List was largely the product of sitting at a computer and staring at stats for only six hours. It was a rather rudimentary statistical analysis, but the results thus far are promising. It helps that Lincecum has already hit it huge. By 2007, I had my player rating formula, and I used it to compare way more college players in a much more formal, impartial way. The rating system was what allowed me to feel comfortable expanding the list to 25 players. Check back tomorrow to see if the early returns on my 2007 25TW list measure up to these 15.