2006 15TW Update

At some point in the off-season I like to look back at the prospect lists I have made for the amateur drafts the past couple years, just to see how the players I listed are doing. Tonight I look at my first list, the one I put together in 2006. It was my first attempt to look at college baseball players, and all things considered, the list still looks okay. All of my original write-up are available here, and below are quick snapshots of how everyone is doing now:

15. Whit Robbins, 1B/OF, Twins (A) - The letter(s) in parentheses are the level the player spent the most time at in 2008. By far, Robbins' best attribute is his plate discipline, as evidenced by all his walks. However, he does not have much power, and he is a little old for the league he is in right now. Still, he repeated this league and posted an OPS about 200 points higher this year. Robbins has clearly progressed, but not enough to warrant a look in the majors any time soon.

14. Evan Longoria, 3B, Rays (MLB) - 2008 American League Rookie of the Year, and arguably the face of the Rays franchise. I would say he is on track to make an impact in the majors.

13. Chad Huffman, OF, Padres (AA) - Chad is worth watching closely right now. He spent all of last season in AA, where he hit for good average and showed good plate discipline. However, he did not have much power. If Huffman develops some power, he may get an extended look in the majors soon (especially considering San Diego's current urge to purge salaries).

12. Luke Hopkins, INF, Blue Jays - I'm assuming he is out of baseball, because he has not played in two years. He never really got a chance to a play, and I'm not sure what ever happened with him.

11. Ryan Strieby, 1B, Tigers (A) - Strieby has a big, strong frame that suggests a ton of power potential. He found his power stroke in a big way, to the tune of 29 home runs despite missing the last month of the season. Strieby got especially hot at the end of the year, posting OPSs well over 1.100 in both July and limited time in August. Next year he will prove whether he has taken a big step forward, or was simply hot for a couple months.

10. Brad Lincoln, P, Pirates (A) - It is hard to be too critical of Lincoln thus far. He missed all of 2007 with an arm injury, and he just began to work his way back last season. The upcoming year will be much more indicative of Lincoln's ability than anything he did this season.

9. Steven Wright, P, Indians (AA) - Wright made the jump from A to AA with mixed results. He maintained his strikeout and ground ball rates fairly well, but he was clearly hit harder. Wright took a huge step forward this past season though, and if he takes a similar step forward in 2009 he may get called up to the majors. It was an awfully big step forward though, and it's probably too much to expect.

8. Wade LeBlanc, P, Padres (AAA) - LeBlanc had an interesting year in AAA, and his stats do not tell the whole story. He got off to a horrific start, but steadily got better as the season wore on. He got lit up as a September call-up for the Padres, but he is probably the guy that will take Jake Peavy's rotation spot once Peavy is traded. Wade's biggest downfall is that he is a fly ball pitcher, and when he's off, he tends to give up lots of home runs. He's got great stuff though, and if/when he learns to control it better, he will be a good pitcher.

7. Jon Jay, OF, Cardinals (AA) - After having a significant portion of 2007 robbed by injuries, Jay rebounded with a quality 2008. By August, he was promoted to AAA, where he kept peforming at a very high level. I expect to see him start the year in AAA, but if he hits like he did last year, a promotion to the majors may come soon.

6. Cole Gillespie, OF, Brewers (AA) - Milwaukee is loaded with prospects right now, so it easy to overlook Gillespie. He had a real nice year in AA. Part of the reason he gets so little attention is because no one skill really stands out with him, but he also has no big weaknesses. Gillespie's power numbers dropped off significantly in the second half of the season, so it will be interesting to see whether the powerful first half or the weaker second half was the exception to the norm for Cole.

5. Max Scherzer, P, Diamondbacks (MLB) - Max split his time almost evenly between AAA and the majors last year, but that will not be the case in 2009. He is going to be on Arizona's opening day roster, and he will likely be the number four starter unless the D'Backs sign someone. He's got wicked stuff, and he should establish himself as the third starter in the rotation behind Webb and Haren by the end of the year. In fact, it would not surprise me if those three are the best starting trio in the majors next year.

4. Eddie Degerman, P, Cardinals (A) - It looks like I missed on this one. Degerman is already 25, and his numbers suggest a bad case of nibbling around the plate and not getting away with it all that well. Still, his strikeout numbers and rather low home run rates suggest that he has some good stuff. Degerman needs a big year in 2009 to have a chance at the majors.

3. Craig Cooper, OF, Padres (AA) - Cooper continues to show pretty good ability to make contact, but a little more plate discipline and some more power would go a long way towards getting him to the big leagues. Without either (especially the power), Cooper looks destined to be a bench bat at best.

2. Andrew Miller, SP, Marlins (MLB) - Miller has as good of stuff as anyone in baseball, but he lacks command of it. He should learn how to control his pitches as he matures, but how much he does will determine how good he becomes. It does not help that he was rushed to the majors, but he has the potential to develop quickly because he needs just a little more command.

1. Tim Lincecum, SP, Giants (MLB) - He is the 2008 National League Cy Young award winner; I rest my case. It's hard to say Lincecum was not the best player available in this draft, though a strong case can be made for Evan Longoria.

I have learned a ton the past couple years that I hope has made me a much better evaluator of college prospects. However, especially for a first try, this list is not bad at all. I don't know of many people that though Lincecum was the best pitcher available in the 2006 draft, but to this point he has made an extremely convincing argument that he was. The hitters on this list have not failed, but the way I ranked them certainly has room for improvement. In the end though, a team drafting according to my list would have ended up with some solid ballplayers.

Cabrera and Willis?!

I was confident that Miguel Cabrera would be dealt at the winter meetings (to the Angels, if you happened to read my last post), and it would not have surprised me if the Marlins moved Dontrelle Willis either. However, both in the same deal...to the Tigers? Did the two sides seriously come to an deal in a matter of hours, after rumors had circled around both Cabrera and Willis for the better part of the past two years? This deal is stunning, both in its magnitude and rapid consummation. Trades just don't fall into place this quickly in baseball these days, especially ones as monstrous as this.

The Marlins were certainly interested in trading Cabrera and Willis, but they were being slow and methodical with trade talks, making sure to get the best offer they could for both. This was definitely the right approach, especially given how important it is for the Marlins to continue to reload with uber-prospects if they have any hope of competing with their limited funds. So, since they accepted this deal so quickly, they obviously were blown away by the package. Here is a brief look at all the players they acquired:

• OF Cameron Maybin (46/84) - To say the least, Maybin is an impressive prospect. He clearly wasn't ready for the major leagues last year, but he was only 20 years old. Maybin is the kind of gifted athlete that scouts drool over, but make no mistake, his stats show that he is a darn good baseball player too. It's hard to not imagine Maybin becoming a star, though he's not going to be a star next year. Ideally he would be in AA or AAA to start the season, but I'm not sure the Marlins have the luxury to do that.
• SP Andrew Miller (67) - Miller, like Maybin, is seen as a star in the making. A year in AAA would not hurt him, but he can hold his own in the majors now, and he will certainly be in the Marlins' 2008 rotation. I'm not quite as sold on Andrew Miller as most though. I see the potential, but he got hit a bit harder and gave up a few more walks than I expected to see out of him, even in the minors at some lower levels where he was playing guys the same age as him. He's going to be a good starter, but I'm hesitant to guarantee that he is going to be great.
• RP Eulogio de la Cruz (58/78) - Eulogio lights up the radar gun to the tune of triple digits, which almost by default makes him an intriguing prospect. However, even with an overpowering fastball, he hasn't been real overpowering in the minor leagues. He has starting experience, but he looks to me like a serviceable reliever at best, with the added bonus that the crowd will check the radar gun after every pitch when he's in the game.
• C Mike Rabelo (62) - Rabelo isn't even a prospect anymore at 27 years old. I know the Marlins were looking for a catcher, but Rabelo is a marginal backup at best.
• SP Dallas Trahern (55/79) - Trahern's numbers are pedestrian, but he did post them at only 21 years old in AA. He could develop into a dependable starter a couple years down the road.
• SP Burke Badenhop (46/84) - Like Rabelo, I don't see Badenhop as a piece that added much to this deal. Though he has shown good control and an uncanny ability to keep the ball in the ballpark, his low strikeout rate at a low level where he is a bit older than most his competition is quite worrisome.

Here is an even briefer look at who the Tigers acquired:

• 3B Miguel Cabrera (88) - His defense and burgeoning waistline may be common areas of criticism, but his accomplishments at the plate at 24 years old compare favorably to A-Rod's. As good as Cabrera has been, he may still be four years away from entering his prime. Now he will continue to develop in a lineup loaded with offensive talent, and the things he could potentially do are flat-out scary.
• SP Dontrelle Willis (70) - The D-Train clearly had a down year, but he is still young, and he was still a workhorse. I've though Willis is overrated for a couple years now, but with that said I think he will bounce back some this year, he is better than Andrew Miller right now, and the city of Detroit should have no problems falling in love with him.

I'm up well past my bedtime, but I am still trying to fathom this deal, and just how good the Tigers are now. Incredibly they have added Edgar Rentaria, Miguel Cabrera, and Dontrelle Willis while only losing Andrew Miller off of their 25-man roster. They were good to start with, but now they have to be considered a bona fide championship contender. As for the Marlins, they just gutted a roster already picked fairly clean. At the least they are really young, really cheap, and really talented. Though it is hard to argue with a deal that nets Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller, I'm surprised the Marlins accepted the trade so quickly. Personally, I feel that Miguel Cabrera alone might have been worth Maybin and Miller, though I probably would have settled for Maybin and a couple other good-looking prospects.

Despite all the players involved, this trade really boils down to Cabrera, Willis, Maybin, and Miller. It is up to Cameron Maybin to develop into the next Miguel Cabrera, and Andrew Miller to be the next Dontrelle Willis for this trade to be fair. Miller has a good chance to fulfill his expectations, but I think Maybin is doomed, even though I think very highly of him. The problem is that Miguel Cabrera is just that special. At Maybin's age, Cabrera hit .268 in the majors with a .793 OPS (for comparison, Maybin batted .143 with a .473 OPS), and proceeded to explode into a premium offensive player over the next two seasons. Even with as high as Maybin and Miller's ceilings are, they are both going to have to reach their full potential rather quickly to make this a fair trade. Even with prospects as great as those two, the odds are against that happening. The Marlins must see things differently, but they are really playing with fire with this trade. I don't think they understand how special Miguel Cabrera is.