No Melky, Probably a Problem, But We Shall See

Dexter Fowler (Wikimedia Commons, author EricEnfermero)

The White Sox signed Melky Cabrera to a 3-year, $42 million deal. Why the Mariners could not match or better this deal is beyond me. I had really warmed to the idea of Melky replacing Michael Saunders* because the Mariners are a team worth spending money on.

*For the record, I fully expect the Saunders-Happ deal to turn out badly. I do not like that deal at all. Happ is a rental that might turn out to be the M's sixth best starter. Now they have a hole in the outfield. Happ is also older, more expensive, and on a shorter contract than Saunders. Happ is a decent lefty. I don't expect him to bomb, but the trade is still remarkably bad.

The Mariners really need a right fielder and the free agent market looks pretty barren at this point. Jack Zduriencik will do something, and at this point I have resigned myself to the fact that either Taijuan Walker or James Paxton will be peddled for an "impact" bat. The only realistic impact target is Justin Upton, who is a free agent after 2015 and only unblocked the M's from his no-trade clause this past year. I like Upton, but do not like the idea of trading a premium prospect for him, all things considered.

There are some other options though! None of them are as good as Michael Saunders, but we no longer live in a world where Michael Saunders exists on the Mariners roster. With a little creativity the M's could find a nice right-fielder though. Some ideas:

• Justin Upton - The Braves are significantly retooling, and behind closed doors I bet they would admit that they do not care how competitive they are in 2015. The Nationals are really good right now, but face some contract crunches after next season. So, I bet Atlanta really cares about being good in 2016. That makes Justin Upton rather expendable. The problem is that he probably costs either Walker or Paxton, unless Zduriencik gets creative. Personally, I wonder what would happen if the Mariners took on both Justin and B.J. Upton. Would absorbing those contracts only cost Erasmo Ramirez and a lower level prospect or two?
• B.J. Upton - Mancrushes die hard, I suppose, because I still see a glimmer of hope in B.J. He remains an adequate defender in center field, which means he is a good candidate to be an above average defender in right. Furthermore, B.J. still sports one of the highest walk rates in baseball and he still steals bases at an above average rate. Upton is also only 30 years old, which is easy to forget with how long he has been around in the big leagues. I would not want to count on B.J. Upton to be an everyday player on a contending team, but I bet he could be had for very cheap and a change of scenery back to the American League might help him find a bit of his dynamic form from his Tampa years.
• Dexter Fowler - Truth be told, this is the guy I would target if I were in Jack Z's shoes at this point. He is a free agent after the 2015 season, which should suppress his trade value some. I would dangle Erasmo Ramirez and I would think that the Astros would have to listen and think about that deal long and hard. Fowler is a remarkalby similar player to Melky Cabrera, believe it or not. Both are switch-hitters with similar production profiles. Fowler was worth 17.3 runs of offense according to Fangraphs, which compares quite favorably to Melky's 16.0 runs. Fowler's defense grades out worse - but only slightly worse than Cabrera while playing center field, which is a more demanding defensive position. Fowler should not be a center fielder anyway. He could be moved to right field and has a decent chance to be as productive as Melky Cabrera - and for only a shade under $6 million.
• Allen Craig - Craig absolutely tanked last year, but was a solid 2+ WAR player for three seasons prior. However, many trends in his stats are troubling, in particular a long and precipitous fall in his power numbers. Craig would be a borderline reclamation project, which means he should not be depending on as a cog in a contending team's lineup. However, if the Mariners can't find anyone else, this would be one of their best gambles. He might be worth gambling on even if the M's find someone else for right field, particularly if they can get him for something like Stefen Romero and an organizational depth arm - a guy like Jordan Pries.
• Colby Rasmus - The Mariners probably won't sign Rasmus, but they should consider it. Defensive ratings fluctuate wildly for him, but he remains very athletic and in his prime at 28 years old, plus he has played center field his whole career. He has a good chance to grade out as a good (or even great) right fielder. Rasmus also packs some thump in his bat, though it comes with an absurd amount of strikeouts. Rasmus is left-handed and sports a large platoon split, so that's enough to probably strike him from the M's thoughts. However, I would look at signing him and sitting him against lefties. Nelson Cruz can play right in those instances, and maybe that's enough outfield time to keep Cruz happy.

In general, my strategy and preference is to find a center fielder and convert him to right field. I think the Mariners could find some hidden value there - or, at the very least, I prefer to take a gamble on someone making that transition instead of someone who is already trying to hang on as a corner outfielder. With that said, my sinking fear is that the Mariners will acquire Dayan Viciedo from the White Sox and make him the next Carl Everett** or (gasp) maybe even the next Brad Wilkerson.

**Never forget the RALLY DINO!

Mariners 2015 Offseason Plan

Yoenis Cespedes
(Kieth Allison, wikimedia commons)

It is impossible to say what the Mariners will do this offseason. The free agent and trade markets are too dynamic. So, instead of fearless predictions, I offer the strategy I would put together if I were Jack Zduriencik with targets that fit the plan.

The Mariners have the luxury of finally having a pretty decent team without a ton of glaring holes. That gives them some flexibility and I am curious to see how they use it. Here is how I would go about the offseason:

• Pick up Hisashi Iwakuma's 2015 option ($7 million): Total no-brainer here. One of the best deals in Major League Baseball. The rotation looks pretty solid with Iwakuma back in the fold. It would go something like this:

1. King Felix
2. James Paxton
3. Hisashi Iwakuma
4. Taijuan Walker
5. Roenis Elias

Yes, I'd put Paxton second, for a couple reasons. First, his power stuff from the left side contrasts with both Felix and Kuma's deadly offspeed repertoire from the right side. Second, Paxton, Walker, and Elias all are yet to prove they consistently get deep into ballgames. I want some more certain rest for the bullpen spread throughout the rotation instead of bunched up at the top.

• Sign a DH. The market isn't great for hitters but the Mariners can take advantage of the DH and get someone serviceable at a reasonable price. Aging sluggers that are defensive/injury liabilities won't get much attention from NL clubs. The Mariners could dangle an offer for significant playing time on a potential playoff contender, instead of a chance to pinch hit every now and then. That should appeal to some batters. I would prefer an aging slugger with defensive liabilities because I think that's the kind of player who can have an impact on a cost-effective, short-term deal. My targets, in order of preference:

1. Josh Willingham: Willingham finished the year on KC's bench and never saw the light of day with Ned Yost's..."steady hand" at the helm. He should have played more than he did. Still, Willingham is about to turn 36 years and has never been noted for his defense. Willingham brings power and on-base skills from the right side, and because he got buried on the Royals bench he might come a bit cheaper.
2. Victor Martinez: Clearly, V-Mart is the most talented option, but I cringe at how much money (and the length of the deal!) that would pry him out of Detroit. Plus, he won't duplicate 32 home runs ever again, meaning he hits the market at a peak value he'll never reach again. The Mariners don't need an albatross of a contract sitting at DH.
3. Billy Butler: Butler played ahead of Willingham for the Royals but that doesn't mean he's the better hitter. Butler doesn't have Willingham's power and his eye seems to be deserting him too. Plus, thanks to all the playing time in the middle of the order of a World Series team, Butler will probably be more expensive - thought not by much since he's perceived as a pure DH. Butler is only 28 years old, so perhaps he can bounce back with a change of scenery, but I still like Willingham better. I'm not looking for a long-term option at DH - and if I am, I might as well pay a clearly superior Victor Martinez.
4. Mike Morse: Would the Mariners dare a third try with Morse? He has hit for power when he's not with the Mariners and makes some good sense at a reasonable price if he can put a season more like his ones in Washington and San Francisco. Third time's a charm?
5. Michael Cuddyer: The Rockies, interestingly, put a qualifying offer on Cuddyer, which jacks up the price for signing him quite a bit. It's too high of a price, in my opinion, given his age and mounting injury history.

• Dangle Michael Saunders and Yoervis Medina in a trade for a corner outfielder. I really like Michael Saunders, but I wonder how much damage the M's did when they questioned his work ethic publicly. It might make sense for Jack Z to shop him around and avoid any awkward tension next season. Along with that, the M's bullpen already has too many good arms. I would ship out Medina, but really just about any arm would do. My trade targets:

1. Yoenis Cespedes: Boston might shop Cespedes because he has only a year before free agency. He brings a thunderous right-handed bat and is also cost-friendly at only $9 million. Given all the affordable team controlled years Boston adds in a deal for Saunders and Medina this is a trade that makes quite a bit sense and could happen.
2. Matt Kemp: Kemp isn't the defender he used to be, but he had a very good season at the dish. If he can be convinced to move to a corner outfield spot, and the Dodgers take on a hefty chunk of what he's owed, this deal could make some sense. The Mariners could kick in a prospect like Tyler Marlette to knock the price tag down further.
3. Marcell Ozuna: Everyone talks about Giancarlo Stanton, but Ozuna patrols Miami's outfield with Giancarlo and has quietly developed in a hurry. This is probably wishful thinking on my part. There's no reason the Marlins would trade him (or should trade him), but I would at least ask. Maybe they'll be pleasantly surprised that someone called and did not ask for Stanton.

• Take a chance on a bench player. I would look to add a player who projects as a bench bat but could turn into a regular contributor one way or another. I would look for ways to add some upside. Basically this is my way of carving out some room for bats that intrigue me. My targets:

1. Colby Rasmus: Rasmus had a disastrous 2014 campaign but still posted a positive WAR. He has contact issues but also offers power with legitimate defense in center field. He could provide nice outfield depth and compliment a right-handed DH well.
2. Yasmani Tomas: The 24-year-old Cuban slugger is unproven and will likely cost a good amount of money. However, if he's a little more like Cespedes and a little less like Dayan Viciedo, he will be a wise investment. This would be a risky move but could give the Mariners a power bat locked up at a reasonable price for a long time. He wouldn't be a bench bat if he pans out, but for 2015 he could make sense on the bench as he figures out life in the Major Leagues.

• Sign David Ross...or a similar legitimate backup catcher. I'd like to see Zunino get some more games off. Ross is a veteran with solid defense and a power stroke with holes in his swing. He would be similar to Zunino and might even serve as a decent mentor for Zunino as he develops into a star.

Here is what my potential 2015 Mariners would look like:

STARTING LINEUP

1. Austin Jackson, CF
2. Robinson Cano, 2B
3. Yoenis Cespedes, RF
4. Kyle Seager, 3B
5. Josh Willingham, DH
6. Logan Morrison, 1B
7. Mike Zunino, C
8. Brad Miller/Chris Taylor, SS
9. Dustin Ackley, LF

BENCH

• Colby Rasmus, OF
• Willie Bloomquist, INF
• David Ross, C
• (Miller or Taylor, depending on who is starting)

STARTING ROTATION

1. Felix Hernandez
2. James Paxton
3. Hisashi Iwakuma
4. Taijuan Walker
5. Roenis Elias

BULLPEN

• Tom Wilhelmsen
• Joe Beimel
• Dominic Leone
• Carson Smith
• Charlie Furbush
• Danny Farquhar
• Fernando Rodney

The lineup is deceptively good, especially if the Miller/Taylor shortstop duo and Mike Zunino take steps forward. There shouldn't be an automatic out, and that might go a long way with what could be a dominant pitching staff if Paxton, Walker, and Elias realize the potential they flashed at times in 2014. The projected lineup could be a league-average lineup, especially in the current environment that is so pitcher-friendly. It is also more balanced, which should make it less susceptible to southpaws. Also, who wouldn't want to watch the show Cespedes puts on in batting practice??

Mariners Need, and Can Get, a Centerfielder

Spring training couldn't start much worse for the Mariners. Hisashi Iwakuma is injured and won't open up the season with the Mariners. Franklin Gutierrez recently announced he won't play at all in 2014. Mind you both of these pieces of news came out before either player reported to spring training.

Forgive me for my lack of excitement around pitchers and catchers reporting. I only wonder what further horrors are in store once the Mariners actually play ball.

The Mariners roster had flaws before these injuries, but flaws have become open wounds already. The starting rotation really needs Taijuan Walker to step up, and he just might be able to do it. He kind of has to because the outfield is an utter mess that the Mariners would be smart to address.

Right now, the starting outfield is...what exactly? Logan Morrison, Michael Saunders, and Corey Hart? Maybe Dustin Ackley somewhere in there? Regardless, that could very well be the worst defensive outfield in Major League Baseball. What's even worse is that Safeco Field is one of the bigger outfields in the major leagues. I had my fingers crossed that Guti could somehow become the regular center fielder, because his defense alone would have saved the Mariners from a nightmarish scenario. The nightmare is reality as of now though - the Mariners simply aren't going to play outfield defense this year, apparently.*

*I will say that I like Michael Saunders, and I'm okay with him playing centerfield on occasion, or playing center regularly with strong corner defenders. Right now he has to save the entire outfield, and he's simply not Mike Trout out there.

The Mariners need a center fielder and I am convinced they can get one at a decent price. They need to call the Toronto Blue Jays.

Colby Rasmus

Toronto has a pair of center fielders on their roster, Anthony Gose and Colby Rasmus. Gose is unproven but has tremendous speed with questionable hitting ability. Rasmus is a borderline five-tool talent with only one year left before free agency.

The Blue Jays also have some holes up the middle. Ryan Goins is slated to be their opening day second basemen. The Mariners have guys like Dustin Ackley and Nick Franklin who might be able to fill that slot.

There's a deal to be made somewhere in there. Ackley for Gose? Ackley for Rasmus? Maybe the Jays would prefer Nick Franklin? Some other pieces would likely be needed, but the core framework for this deal might work.

The main focus for the Mariners seems to be on Nelson Cruz and getting another power hitter in general, but that outfield defense is the biggest hole on the Mariners roster right now. It can be improved too. Rasmus, as an added bonus, could be the power bat the Mariners want.

I don't like to make hypothetical trades because I don't have any information to really be able to tell what talks are going on or how other teams value Mariner players. I am pretty confident that the Jays and Mariners could find a deal that works for both teams though, and the Mariners look way better with Colby Rasmus or Anthony Gose in centerfield than they do without either of them.