Seager Staying Put

...Or, alternatively, Mariners Prove Even Mariners Can Produce AND Keep Home-Grown Position Player.

Kyle Seager (Wikemedia Commons, User UCInternational. Source: Flickr, author hj_west)

Reports surfaced this morning that the Mariners and Kyle Seager are placing the finishing touches on a 7-year, $100 million deal with an option for a $20 million eighth year. Year-by-year totals aren't available yet (and may never be officially available; Zduriencik tends to be tight-lipped) but presumably the annual money escalates for at least a little while. This deal buys out all three of Seager's arbitration years and then four of his free agency seasons. Seager is now under contract until he is 33 years old, ensuring his entire prime is played in navy and teal.

The real significance in Seager's deal comes from the dearth of contracts to players like Seager for a long, long time. However, first, the deal itself is very good for the Mariners.

Reports also surfaced this morning that both Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval signed with the Red Sox, for 4 years-$88 million and 5 years-$90 million respectively. Ramirez is four years older than Seager and produced 3.4 fWAR last season, compared to Seagers 5.5 fWAR. Sandoval is only a little over a year older than Seager and posted a 3.0 fWAR.

Simply put, both Ramirez and Sandoval are older, inferior to Seager's overall talent level right now, and still earned average annual values in their contract right around what Seager might make in his option year, which is presumably a peak annual value. While I would expect Seager's deal to be cheaper annually because all three of his arbitration years were bought out, it is clear that the free agent seasons bought out in his contract are still well under the current going rate for starting infielders of his caliber. Financially, Seager's contract is a great deal for the Mariners.

However, the real significance of this contract comes from the echoes of Mariners history...and the echoes go on for a long time. The hallway of homegrown hitters signed to contract extensions has a long, bleak stretch that spanned unblemished until today.

Consider this stunning, depressing, and amazing fact: Kyle Seager is only the second home-grown position player the Mariners have signed to a contract extension that was drafted in my lifetime. The other is Ken Griffey Jr. and he barely counts. I was born in January 1987 and he was drafted that June. I don't particularly remember him being drafted, though of course remember him playing. Also, Griffey's extension was nothing like Seager's. It was not a long-term deal and he ultimately signed a long-term extension upon a trade to the Cincinnati Reds.

Now, if you are like me, you are probably asking, "but what about (insert several M's hitters)?" Here are those answers:

• Jay Buhner: Not home-grown. Acquired in a trade with the Yankees, forever captured in a Seinfeld episode.
• Ichiro: Debatably could be included, though I wouldn't say he was developed by the Mariners. He signed as an international free agent, never spent a day in the minors, and was the AL MVP in his first MLB season after making the jump. He was a free agent acquisition in my eyes.
• Edgar Martinez: Signed as a 16-year-old in 1982, before I was born.
• Dan Wilson: Not home-grown. Acquired in a trade with the Reds.

There are also the hitters that got away. The Mariners had some chances, a few more obvious than others:

• Jose Cruz Jr: Had a decent career - elsewhere, after he was traded to the Jays for bullpen depth.
• Raul Ibanez: Allowed to walk for nothing and emerge with the Royals, before coming back to Seattle a couple times.
• Tino Martinez: Traded to the Yankees, after becoming an All-Star in Seattle, for Russ Davis and Sterling Hitchcock.
• David Ortiz: Traded to the Twins for Dave Hollins, though Ortiz was a raw prospect and a no-name at the time of the trade.
• Jason Varitek: Traded to the Red Sox (along with Derek Lowe) for Heathcliff Slocumb. Never forget.
• Alex Rodriguez: Undeniable talent, but hard to argue the M's ultimately lost out when he signed with Texas.

The list could grow with names such as Bret Boone added, but he was traded for Dan Wilson, so that seems harsh and not really in the spirit of this post. Boone was not a missed opportunity; he was a trade chip for another long-term piece (and he even came back and enjoyed his best seasons in Seattle anyway).

The Mariners are maligned for their inability to produce hitting prospects, and to a degree they have earned that reputation. However, they had several chances to lock up home-grown hitters the past quarter century, and for one reason or another, never did.

Until today. Kyle Seager, Mariner for life. Today, Kyle Seager transitioned from lovable surprise and a secret of the Pacific Northwest to one of the core position players in all of Mariners history. He will go down as one of the best to ever play in Seattle thanks to this contract.

Making Sense of the Hanley Rumors

Hanley Ramirez (Wikimedia Commons, user TonyTheTiger)

The Mariners, reportedly, have shown initial interest in SS Hanley Ramirez. This makes little sense at first glance, and it is important to qualify that rumors are rumors. Many whispers, particularly this time of year, come from agents trying to drive up the price tag on their players. The Mariners say they have money to spend and they want right-handed hitters, so it is possibly (if not likely) in the rumor source's best interest to say that the Mariners are interested in Hanley Ramirez.

Likewise, the Mariners should be interested in Hanley at the right price. If he signs a league minimum with the M's, who would complain? However, hidden underneath the "interest" is the deeper question about money. Would Hanley be worth the money it takes to sign him? That's a tougher question to answer, but the more I look at Hanley, the more I like him as a free agent target.

To start with, Hanley is somewhere between a good and great hitter. He has some power but his real value is in finding the gaps with a nice average and on-base percentage, not unlike Robinson Cano. Fangraphs estimates that Hanley's offense was worth 21.8 runs last year,* which is in line with his career averages and somewhere between good and great.

*For context, Fangraphs estimates that Kyle Seager's offense was worth 16.4 runs last year and Cano's 28.8 runs.

Ramirez also plays shortstop, a premium defensive position, though he has never been noted as a good defender (or all that bad either.) Chris Taylor is certainly a better defender than Hanley, and Brad Miller is arguably a better one too. Hanley could potentially switch over to third base or left field (he's reportedly willing to do either), but he certainly won't supplant Kyle Seager and even Dustin Ackley isn't a gimme to be supplanted anymore at this point. It's hard to imagine Ramirez playing a better left field than Ackley, which means he would have to outhit by a sizeable margin. He might do that, but at that point is the financial burden worth it?

However, Hanley Ramirez is a good enough hitter that he might still make good sense. He compares quite well against the popular Mariners target in rumor circles, Victor Martinez. V-Mart makes perfect sense. He's already a full-time DH and he absolutely raked last season. Martinez is the seemingly natural fit for the Mariners.

Indeed, Martinez was amazing last season. His offense was worth a whopping 40.7 runs last season, the 7th highest total in all of baseball. But the 2014 version of Victor Martinez has come and gone. The real question is what the 2015 version will do...

...and the odds are that 2015 V-Mart will be a good hitter, but not 2014 good. He just enjoyed the best season he will ever have. Martinez's best offensive season before 2014 was 2009 when he got traded from Cleveland to Boston and totaled a value of 20.4 runs. Yes, Victor's 2014 was literally twice as good as any other season he ever had.

It would be foolish to project anything beyond a value of 20 offensive runs from Victor Martinez, which, coincidentally is right around what Hanley Ramirez produced in 2014 in what was a rather normal season by his standards. Additionally, Hanley Ramirez is six years younger than Victor Martinez and can still play some defense around the diamond.

Hanley's relative youth is likely to get him a longer deal than Victor Martinez, but there is no guarantee a team will have to pay Hanley more per year than Victor at this point. The free agent market is in its infant stages and still developing. Who knows what happens.

For now, I would hope that the Mariners have reached out to Hanley Ramirez. If they are hellbent on getting a right-handed slugger for Safeco Field, I would much rather have Ramirez than Martinez if the annual salaries are close to equal. Of course, I would probably pass on both of them at the prices they are likely to demand, but if Victor Martinez makes sense for the Mariners then Hanley Ramirez makes even more sense for them.

Hanleywood

I was about to go to bed last night when my Twitter feed lit up with a deal between the Dodgers and Marlins. 3B/SS Hanley Ramirez and LHP Randy Choate are now in LA in exchange for RHP Nathan Eovaldi and RHP Scott McGough.