Enigma Bound For Emerald City

While I was off on a nine-day wind ensemble tour through Canada and western Washington, the Mariners made a couple moves. First, they signed Arthur Rhodes to a minor league contract and invited him to spring training. The odds are that he will make the team and that is good news because Eric O’Flaherty is young and promising, but not ready. Though this is not the turn-of-the-millennium Rhodes that was dominant for the Mariners, he should be a little better than O’Flaherty and it is nice to see a face with ties to the most successful run in Mariners history.

However, more noteworthy was the signing of Jeff Weaver to a 1 year, $8.35 million deal with $1 million more that could be earned in incentives. Weaver will take the rotation spot that was up for grabs between Jake Woods and Cha Seung Baek.

Was signing Jeff Weaver a good move? It is hard to say. He struggled mightily last year, as evidenced by his 8-14 record and ERA well over 5.00. On my rating system he was a 5.2 last year, which means he was arguably not even a decent option as a number five starter. For comparison, Jake Woods was a 4.6. Based on Weaver’s 2006 numbers alone, this was an awful signing.

But 2006 was Weaver’s worst year of his career and only his 2003 season with the Yankees even comes close to being as bad. Outside of those two years Jeff Weaver has been a quality top-of-the-rotation type of guy and at 31 years old with no injury history, there is no reason to think that he is washed up. If the Mariners get the pitcher that Jeff Weaver has been for the majority of his career, than it was a pretty good signing.

So, which Jeff Weaver did they get? At over $8 million, it’s pretty clear the Mariners think he will regain his form and maybe even be considered the staff ace by the end of the year. I definitely don’t think Weaver was worth the money the M’s gave him, but for only one year I can deal with the exorbitant contract. I’m much more concerned about Weaver’s productivity.

Even Jeff’s numbers do not provide many answers to his future. As mentioned earlier, he had a bad season in 2003 with the Yankees out of pretty much nowhere and once he got out of New York he rebounded just fine. Many people chalked up his bad performance to the pressure of playing for the Yankees. I don’t completely buy that because he did just fine after being traded to them halfway through the 2002 season, but his sudden rebound can’t be ignored. Interestingly, he faced another awkward situation last year when Jered Weaver, his younger brother, came up and replaced him. It is possible that Jeff was in another stressful situation and that it affected his performance.

I am not sold that is what really happened though. If the situation with the Angels was really that bad, Weaver should have been better with the Cardinals than he was in the regular season. However, Jeff admits that with the Angels he started to press and it had a negative affect on his mechanics, which Cardinals pitching coach (more like pitching wizard) Dave Duncan fixed. Maybe that really happened because, though Weaver was rather ineffective for St. Louis in the regular season, he regained his old form in the postseason.
Despite these positive signs, I am still not convinced Weaver will bounce back. In 2005 with the Dodgers he went 14-11 with a 4.22 ERA and 1.17 WHIP – all numbers that are a little better than his career averages. However, he allowed a whopping 35 home runs that season, well more than his previous career high of 27 from back in his rookie season and nearly double the 19 he allowed in 2004. At the time it seemed like a fluke number for Weaver, just some bizarre blip on his radar. However, it’s much harder to ignore now because he backed up his 35-homer 2005 season by allowing 34 dingers in 2006. He didn’t get away with it last season because he gave up more hits.

What Jeff Weaver will do in 2007 is anybody’s guess. He is as tough to project as they come. It is entirely possible that Weaver finds the form that he has had in five of his last seven seasons and the Mariners look smart for signing him. On the other hand, it is also possible that he continues to hand out home runs like candy and he is nothing more than a serviceable five starter, which the Mariners already have in Jake Woods or Cha Seung Baek for a fraction of the price. My best guess is Weaver’s home run rate will go down only because he will be pitching in Safeco Field, but I also think his WHIP will improve because I see him rebounding some from 2006. Ultimately, I see Weaver pitching around 200 innings for the Mariners with an ERA around 4.50, a WHIP of 1.35, and an 11-11 record. That may not sound very exciting, but it would rate as a 3.8 on my pitcher’s scale, which would make him about as good as Miguel Batista and Jarrod Washburn and a noticeable upgrade over Woods or Baek. Jeff Weaver was not worth the money, but for one year overpaying is not that big of a deal. All things considered, signing Weaver was a solid move by the Mariners.

M's Talking to Lawrence

The Mariners, in the never-ending quest to try to piece together a starting rotation this year, have fixed their eyes on one more free agent arm, Brian Lawrence. He last pitched with the Nationals in 2005 because he blew out his arm in spring training last year and missed the entire season. The Padres, Rockies, and Pirates are also believed to be interested in this pitcher as well.


I really hope the Mariners are able to sign this guy. Though Lawrence suffered a major arm injury last year he has no history of injuries beforehand, leading me to believe it was a fluke injury, albeit a bad one. Even if his arm never fully recovers it is not as big of a deal for him because he does not rely on velocity heavily. He has never thrown remarkably hard.

Finally, the biggest reason I want the Mariners to sign him is because he was a good pitcher for several years before the injury. In 2005, the year before the injury, Lawrence went 7-15 with a 4.83 ERA, which looks horrible. However, he just had bad luck. Other numbers like his WHIP and home run rate did not spike considerably yet somehow his ERA went up almost a full run. Even using only Lawrence’s 2005 numbers he rated a 3.5. To give an idea of how good that is, Gil Meche rated a 3.7 last year. So, it is conceivable that Brian Lawrence could fully replace Gil Meche, or even be an upgrade.

However, to be fair, I decided to factor in injuries for Lawrence. For argument’s sake I projected him playing only half a season, which I think is rather harsh. Even with Lawrence projected to only play half a season his rating is a 4.3, still making him a better option than Cha-Seung Baek (4.5) or Jake Woods (4.6).

There is no denying Brian Lawrence is a bit of a risky signing thanks to the injury. However, he is only 30 years old and has no prior injury history and, on top of that, he will be a productive starter even if he never fully recovers. With his 4.3 rating he is worth about $3.75 million a year on my scale, so if I were the Mariners I would fully be willing to give him a major league contract. Furthermore, I think no team’s offer on the table to Lawrence even approaches the $3.75 million that I believe is his value on the market. I have not been overly pleased with the Mariners offseason, but signing Brian Lawrence would certainly make me smile.

LaRoche Finally Dealt

It has long been speculated that Braves first baseman Adam LaRoche would be dealt to the Pirates and they finally shipped him there, along with minor league outfielder Jamie Romak, for closer Mike Gonzalez and shortstop prospect Brent Lillibridge. LaRoche will be the starting first baseman for the Pirates and is expected to bat fourth between Freddy Sanchez and Jason Bay, while Gonzalez will be the Braves new closer.

So, who got the better end of the deal?

Let’s start with the Pirates. They expect LaRoche to come in and be the impact power bat they were looking for all off-season. While LaRoche does have good power, he is not as great as some make him out to be. Last year he was a 3.0 on my scale and for his career he is a 3.5. So, unless LaRoche takes another big step forward this year (and personally I think he will slide a little) he is a solid, every-day player. He will upgrade the Pirates offense, but calling him an impact bat might be a stretch. However, the upgrade comes at a price because it does weaken the Pirates bullpen. Mike Gonzalez rated a 5.2 on my scale, which makes him a good reliever. In his place the Pirates intend to use Salomon Torres, who is only a 6.6. That’s a fairly noticeable downgrade, so noticeable it might neutralize the added offense that LaRoche brings, even though according to my point scale LaRoche is more valuable than Gonzalez.

As for the Braves, they now have a formidable duo at the back end of their bullpen with Mike Gonzalez (5.2) and Rafael Soriano (4.6). They replace Danys Baez (6.0) and Ken Ray (7.6). So, Atlanta’s bullpen is clearly better. However, the belief is that the Braves will ask Scott Thorman to replace LaRoche. Thorman spent the majority of last year in AAA and, after adjusting his minor league numbers last year, he rates as a 4.6 in the major leagues. He is a very noticeable downgrade from LaRoche.

At the major league level neither team seemed to get much better or worse. Instead, they both solved a problem by creating another. This is rather remarkable for the Pirates because LaRoche is a significantly higher-ranked player than Gonzalez based on my rankings, yet despite that the team wasn't improved. So, the true winner of this deal (if there ever is one) will be decided by the prospects swapped.

Brent Lillibridge, the player the Braves acquired, played in both low-A and high-A ball last year and his stats combined yield an un-adjusted ranking of 1.4. Jamie Romak, whom the Pirates acquired, played only in low A last year and his un-adjusted ranking is a 3.3. Though Romak is two years younger and could develop, Lillibridge is the better prospect because he has done significantly better at a higher level, and he also has a longer track record of success.

In the end, though the Braves gave up more talent in the deal, they did a better job of improving their team in this trade than the Pirates. Because of that, I give Atlanta the slight edge in this deal.