Mariners 2008 Offseason

With the Red Sox emphatically concluding 2007, the baseball offseason is upon us. The attention thus far has been on the Yankees, and rightly so with the departures of Joe Torre and Alex Rodriguez. At some point, a blog post may have to be dedicated to the Yankees, and free agency in general (my hitter and pitcher rating formula pages both have updated pay projectors, for anyone interested in seeing what free agents should be asking for). However, it would not be right to start with any team other than the Mariners.

The M's had two major shortcomings last year, one obvious and one not quite so obvious. The easy one to spot was the starting pitching, specifically the complete lack of a number five starter the entire year. However, it was not all the pitching's fault. The whole pitching staff was not helped out by the M's other major shortcoming, an outfield defense that featured the fielding equivalent of statues in left and right field. It is tempting to look at the 2007 Mariners and want to keep the team together, and just add a key piece or two in free agency. If the M's were able to do that, a 90-win season would seem well within reach. However, adding to this team is not the right thing to do. To start with, the pieces the M's need are not available in free agency, especially when it comes to pitchers. However, even if there were attractive free agents available, the wise thing for the Mariners to do would be to stand pat.

Starting with the everyday players, the only starter that may be lost in free agency is Jose Guillen. Granted, his offense will be difficult to replace from within the organization, but he also had very limited range in right field. In addition, Richie Sexson did not exactly have a sterling year offensively or defensively at first base. Ultimately, I think the Mariners' lineup will be just as good, if not better, if they move Raul Ibanez to first base, and start Adam Jones in left field, and Wladimir Balentien in right. This should provide noticeable defensive upgrades in left and right field, and perhaps even at first base. On top of that, it is plausible that Jones and Balentien's combined offensive production could rival Sexson and Guillen's combined production. However, given the defensive improvement, they have room to struggle offensively without making the team a worse one than it was last year. Also, by not signing Guillen, the team would save roughly $8 million dollars.

Like the everyday lineup, the pitching staff will be losing only one key member as well, Jeff Weaver. Though Weaver improved drastically after his epically terrible first month, he still was not worth $8.35 million. Unfortunately, Weaver was far from the worst pitcher on the staff either, thanks to Ho-Ram's lackluster performance. It may seem tempting to plug the holes with veteran starters like Josh Fogg, and though a move like that would improve the Mariners, it is not the best one for the team. Instead, they should promote from within here as well. Personally, I would let Weaver go and boot Ramirez out of the rotation, leaving two starting slots open. I would give Brandon Morrow one of them, and then have Cha Seung Baek and Ryan Rowland-Smith compete for the final one in spring training, with the loser being a long reliever out of the bullpen. It may seem very risky relying on such green, unproven players in two starting slots, but it has to be kept in mind that they are replacing Jeff Weaver and Horacio Ramirez, who did not set the highest of standards in 2007. There will be days where the two youngsters look bad, but there will also be days where they look great, and in the end the youngsters would be an upgrade. As an added bonus, the Mariners would save $8.35 million.

Honestly, I would consider it a successful offseason if the Mariners do absolutely nothing, and fill all their holes from within. It would save them around $16 million, and they likely would not field a worse team in 2008 than they did in 2007. If the M's keep that salary space open, and then let Richie Sexson go once his contract expires at the end of next year, they will have about $30 million to spend in 2009, which should be more than enough money to go after Johan Santana if he becomes a free agent. Imagine an M's team full of youngsters that all have a year of major league experience under the belt, and a starting staff that could feature two legitimate aces, plus an up-and-coming Brandon Morrow. Honestly, that trio would have a chance to reach the level of Mulder/Hudson/Zito, and Maddux/Smoltz/Glavine, which would be scary with a young offense that could feature 4 20-homer hitters in Adrian Beltre, Adam Jones, Wladimir Balentien, and Jeff Clement.

If the Mariners do nothing this offseason, they likely won't be a strong playoff contender in 2008. However, they will be quite young, pretty good, and gain the financial flexibility to explore adding a guy like Johan Santana, who in 2009 could be the piece that takes them from a playoff contender to a championship contender. Hopefully the Mariners recognize all the benefits of steering clear of the free agent market this offseason. Based on the moves they have already made, as well as rumors floating around, I believe that they do.

New And Improved Jeff Weaver?

Tonight's game against the Pirates looked like a marathon waiting to happen. On the mound for Pittsburgh was Paul Maholm, owner of a 3-9 record and 5.01 ERA, and countering him was Jeff Weaver, owner of an ERA that was still over 10.00, and an opponents batting average that was still over .400. Two hours, seven minutes later I was left wondering if Jeff Weaver had really toed the rubber tonight.

Seriously, was that Jeff Weaver? Did he really just throw a complete game shutout? Did he really just throw 109 pitches, with 76 for strikes? Was that him consistently throwing fastballs in the low 90s? One thing is clear: that was not the Jeff Weaver that was sent to the DL.

To be honest, I thought Weaver's DL stint was mostly a hoax, the M's last-ditch effort to try to get any value out of the $8.35 million they invested in him. There was talk about working with his mechanics, but pitchers that have been around as long as Weaver just don't reinvent themselves in a month. However, after by far the worst stretch in his career, tonight he delivered perhaps his greatest performance ever. Maybe there was something to all the talk of messing with his mechanics. To give an idea of just how out-of-line Weaver's performance tonight was from the rest of his season, he went into tonight's game with a 44 rating according to my pitcher rating formula. Adding in tonight's game, his rating is now 58.

Obviously, Jeff Weaver isn't going to go out and pitch complete game shutouts for the rest of the year. It could even be argued that a spectacular performance like this was bound to happen, because he had to do something to get his season numbers closer to his career averages. However, watching him at the start of the year, how could anyone believe he would ever deliver a performance half as good as tonight's? Granted, he did face the anemic Pirates tonight, but nothing about the 2007 Jeff Weaver indicated he was capable of anything this good.

Whatever the M's did with Weaver while he was on the DL seems to have made a major difference. Before going on the DL his rating was 37; his three starts since returning garner a 97. Weaver can't keep up his current pace, but he was due for a bit of a hot streak after his horrendous start. The M's didn't get the ground ball pitcher they inexplicably expected (even tonight he had more flyouts than groundouts), but maybe they signed a reliable starter after all. His career rating is a 78, and if he can pitch at around that level for the rest of year the M's starting staff will be in much better shape than it has been. I'm tempted to say Weaver has turned his season around, though it's still too early to tell. He's clearly a much better pitcher since coming off the DL, and there's no doubt in my mind that he'll continue to be a better pitcher than he was at the start of the year. It's a question of how much better he'll be. So far, he's been an ace, but the odds of him keeping this up are astronomically thin. I'd settle for a solid inning-eater though.

Enigma Bound For Emerald City

While I was off on a nine-day wind ensemble tour through Canada and western Washington, the Mariners made a couple moves. First, they signed Arthur Rhodes to a minor league contract and invited him to spring training. The odds are that he will make the team and that is good news because Eric O’Flaherty is young and promising, but not ready. Though this is not the turn-of-the-millennium Rhodes that was dominant for the Mariners, he should be a little better than O’Flaherty and it is nice to see a face with ties to the most successful run in Mariners history.

However, more noteworthy was the signing of Jeff Weaver to a 1 year, $8.35 million deal with $1 million more that could be earned in incentives. Weaver will take the rotation spot that was up for grabs between Jake Woods and Cha Seung Baek.

Was signing Jeff Weaver a good move? It is hard to say. He struggled mightily last year, as evidenced by his 8-14 record and ERA well over 5.00. On my rating system he was a 5.2 last year, which means he was arguably not even a decent option as a number five starter. For comparison, Jake Woods was a 4.6. Based on Weaver’s 2006 numbers alone, this was an awful signing.

But 2006 was Weaver’s worst year of his career and only his 2003 season with the Yankees even comes close to being as bad. Outside of those two years Jeff Weaver has been a quality top-of-the-rotation type of guy and at 31 years old with no injury history, there is no reason to think that he is washed up. If the Mariners get the pitcher that Jeff Weaver has been for the majority of his career, than it was a pretty good signing.

So, which Jeff Weaver did they get? At over $8 million, it’s pretty clear the Mariners think he will regain his form and maybe even be considered the staff ace by the end of the year. I definitely don’t think Weaver was worth the money the M’s gave him, but for only one year I can deal with the exorbitant contract. I’m much more concerned about Weaver’s productivity.

Even Jeff’s numbers do not provide many answers to his future. As mentioned earlier, he had a bad season in 2003 with the Yankees out of pretty much nowhere and once he got out of New York he rebounded just fine. Many people chalked up his bad performance to the pressure of playing for the Yankees. I don’t completely buy that because he did just fine after being traded to them halfway through the 2002 season, but his sudden rebound can’t be ignored. Interestingly, he faced another awkward situation last year when Jered Weaver, his younger brother, came up and replaced him. It is possible that Jeff was in another stressful situation and that it affected his performance.

I am not sold that is what really happened though. If the situation with the Angels was really that bad, Weaver should have been better with the Cardinals than he was in the regular season. However, Jeff admits that with the Angels he started to press and it had a negative affect on his mechanics, which Cardinals pitching coach (more like pitching wizard) Dave Duncan fixed. Maybe that really happened because, though Weaver was rather ineffective for St. Louis in the regular season, he regained his old form in the postseason.
Despite these positive signs, I am still not convinced Weaver will bounce back. In 2005 with the Dodgers he went 14-11 with a 4.22 ERA and 1.17 WHIP – all numbers that are a little better than his career averages. However, he allowed a whopping 35 home runs that season, well more than his previous career high of 27 from back in his rookie season and nearly double the 19 he allowed in 2004. At the time it seemed like a fluke number for Weaver, just some bizarre blip on his radar. However, it’s much harder to ignore now because he backed up his 35-homer 2005 season by allowing 34 dingers in 2006. He didn’t get away with it last season because he gave up more hits.

What Jeff Weaver will do in 2007 is anybody’s guess. He is as tough to project as they come. It is entirely possible that Weaver finds the form that he has had in five of his last seven seasons and the Mariners look smart for signing him. On the other hand, it is also possible that he continues to hand out home runs like candy and he is nothing more than a serviceable five starter, which the Mariners already have in Jake Woods or Cha Seung Baek for a fraction of the price. My best guess is Weaver’s home run rate will go down only because he will be pitching in Safeco Field, but I also think his WHIP will improve because I see him rebounding some from 2006. Ultimately, I see Weaver pitching around 200 innings for the Mariners with an ERA around 4.50, a WHIP of 1.35, and an 11-11 record. That may not sound very exciting, but it would rate as a 3.8 on my pitcher’s scale, which would make him about as good as Miguel Batista and Jarrod Washburn and a noticeable upgrade over Woods or Baek. Jeff Weaver was not worth the money, but for one year overpaying is not that big of a deal. All things considered, signing Weaver was a solid move by the Mariners.