Dodgers Inexplicably Sign Jones

I was sure that Andruw Jones was going to sign a one-year deal somewhere and test the free agent market again. Simply put, I did not think any team would give him an offer close to what he was demanding for more than a year, given the disappointing year he just had, and his once stellar defense that continues to decline at an alarming rate. The Dodgers proved me wrong, giving him a two-year deal worth a total of $36.2 million. The deal reportedly includes a $12.2 million signing bonus, with base salaries of $9 million in 2008 and $15 million in 2009. It also includes a no-trade clause.

Andruw Jones, according to my hitter rating formula, was a 72 last year. That makes him worth approximately $5.2 million on the open market. However, his agent, none other than the notorious Scott Boras, argued that the whole body of Jones's work had to be considered. Boras conceded that Jones had a down year, but even in his worst year he had 26 home runs, 94 RBIs, and another gold-glove year. Taking Andruw's career numbers and plugging them into my hitter rating formula, he registers an 80, which is worth about $9 million on the open market. Even if a team believed his defense is second to none (which is far from true at this point; he is living on reputation), he would have to cover multiple outfield spots at the same time to earn the money the Dodgers gave him. There is no justification whatsoever for the money Andruw Jones received.

What's even more ridiculous is that Jones doesn't even improve the Dodgers. He is actually a downgrade! Without Jones, the Dodgers were looking at starting Andre Ethier (79), Juan Pierre (79), and Matt Kemp (80). With Jones, Kemp and Ethier will likely platoon in right field, which is a shame because both are good enough to start for them right now, and they both have promising upside. It's unbelievable that the Dodgers willingly paid $36.5 million for a downgrade.

The only way signing Andruw Jones make a shred of sense is if Los Angeles uses Matt Kemp to acquire a great starting pitcher. They likely have the pieces to get a big deal done, but Matt Kemp was reportedly already a part of all their packages, so I wonder if L.A. will actually sweeten their offers with Jones in the fold. I really don't get the Dodgers at all. They have a ton of tremendous young talent, but they are reluctant to give any of it a chance to play in the majors, and they are also reluctant to trade any of it. They are rendering their greatest asset useless. Between the young talent they have and vast resources they have because of the market they are in, they have no excuse for continually being mediocre.

Cabrera and Willis?!

I was confident that Miguel Cabrera would be dealt at the winter meetings (to the Angels, if you happened to read my last post), and it would not have surprised me if the Marlins moved Dontrelle Willis either. However, both in the same deal...to the Tigers? Did the two sides seriously come to an deal in a matter of hours, after rumors had circled around both Cabrera and Willis for the better part of the past two years? This deal is stunning, both in its magnitude and rapid consummation. Trades just don't fall into place this quickly in baseball these days, especially ones as monstrous as this.

The Marlins were certainly interested in trading Cabrera and Willis, but they were being slow and methodical with trade talks, making sure to get the best offer they could for both. This was definitely the right approach, especially given how important it is for the Marlins to continue to reload with uber-prospects if they have any hope of competing with their limited funds. So, since they accepted this deal so quickly, they obviously were blown away by the package. Here is a brief look at all the players they acquired:

• OF Cameron Maybin (46/84) - To say the least, Maybin is an impressive prospect. He clearly wasn't ready for the major leagues last year, but he was only 20 years old. Maybin is the kind of gifted athlete that scouts drool over, but make no mistake, his stats show that he is a darn good baseball player too. It's hard to not imagine Maybin becoming a star, though he's not going to be a star next year. Ideally he would be in AA or AAA to start the season, but I'm not sure the Marlins have the luxury to do that.
• SP Andrew Miller (67) - Miller, like Maybin, is seen as a star in the making. A year in AAA would not hurt him, but he can hold his own in the majors now, and he will certainly be in the Marlins' 2008 rotation. I'm not quite as sold on Andrew Miller as most though. I see the potential, but he got hit a bit harder and gave up a few more walks than I expected to see out of him, even in the minors at some lower levels where he was playing guys the same age as him. He's going to be a good starter, but I'm hesitant to guarantee that he is going to be great.
• RP Eulogio de la Cruz (58/78) - Eulogio lights up the radar gun to the tune of triple digits, which almost by default makes him an intriguing prospect. However, even with an overpowering fastball, he hasn't been real overpowering in the minor leagues. He has starting experience, but he looks to me like a serviceable reliever at best, with the added bonus that the crowd will check the radar gun after every pitch when he's in the game.
• C Mike Rabelo (62) - Rabelo isn't even a prospect anymore at 27 years old. I know the Marlins were looking for a catcher, but Rabelo is a marginal backup at best.
• SP Dallas Trahern (55/79) - Trahern's numbers are pedestrian, but he did post them at only 21 years old in AA. He could develop into a dependable starter a couple years down the road.
• SP Burke Badenhop (46/84) - Like Rabelo, I don't see Badenhop as a piece that added much to this deal. Though he has shown good control and an uncanny ability to keep the ball in the ballpark, his low strikeout rate at a low level where he is a bit older than most his competition is quite worrisome.

Here is an even briefer look at who the Tigers acquired:

• 3B Miguel Cabrera (88) - His defense and burgeoning waistline may be common areas of criticism, but his accomplishments at the plate at 24 years old compare favorably to A-Rod's. As good as Cabrera has been, he may still be four years away from entering his prime. Now he will continue to develop in a lineup loaded with offensive talent, and the things he could potentially do are flat-out scary.
• SP Dontrelle Willis (70) - The D-Train clearly had a down year, but he is still young, and he was still a workhorse. I've though Willis is overrated for a couple years now, but with that said I think he will bounce back some this year, he is better than Andrew Miller right now, and the city of Detroit should have no problems falling in love with him.

I'm up well past my bedtime, but I am still trying to fathom this deal, and just how good the Tigers are now. Incredibly they have added Edgar Rentaria, Miguel Cabrera, and Dontrelle Willis while only losing Andrew Miller off of their 25-man roster. They were good to start with, but now they have to be considered a bona fide championship contender. As for the Marlins, they just gutted a roster already picked fairly clean. At the least they are really young, really cheap, and really talented. Though it is hard to argue with a deal that nets Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller, I'm surprised the Marlins accepted the trade so quickly. Personally, I feel that Miguel Cabrera alone might have been worth Maybin and Miller, though I probably would have settled for Maybin and a couple other good-looking prospects.

Despite all the players involved, this trade really boils down to Cabrera, Willis, Maybin, and Miller. It is up to Cameron Maybin to develop into the next Miguel Cabrera, and Andrew Miller to be the next Dontrelle Willis for this trade to be fair. Miller has a good chance to fulfill his expectations, but I think Maybin is doomed, even though I think very highly of him. The problem is that Miguel Cabrera is just that special. At Maybin's age, Cabrera hit .268 in the majors with a .793 OPS (for comparison, Maybin batted .143 with a .473 OPS), and proceeded to explode into a premium offensive player over the next two seasons. Even with as high as Maybin and Miller's ceilings are, they are both going to have to reach their full potential rather quickly to make this a fair trade. Even with prospects as great as those two, the odds are against that happening. The Marlins must see things differently, but they are really playing with fire with this trade. I don't think they understand how special Miguel Cabrera is.

2007 Winter Meetings Predictions

The Winter Meetings are almost here, and with them will come some notable trades and free agent signings. This year could be especially good because there are some very big names being dangled by ballclubs. Here is my best attempt to provide some bold, yet realistic, predictions:

• The first big story is going to be Johan Santana, and if the rumors are true, a final decision on whether to trade him or not will come in the next 24 hours. It is being reported that the Yankees have submitted their final offer, and have told the Twins they must accept it by tomorrow or it will be rescinded. The Twins have been smart about these trade discussions, and have the Red Sox and Yankees in a bidding war that has reportedly brought Phil Hughes and Jacoby Ellsbury, both thought to be untouchable at first, into the discussion. However, it is clear at this point that both teams have submitted their best offers, and now it is up to the Twins to decide if either offer is worth pulling the trigger on. Of course, even if Minnesota agrees to one of the deals, Johan will likely only waive his no-trade clause if he gets a contract extension that makes him the highest paid pitcher in baseball history. I'm sure there are split opinions within the Twins organization on whether to pull the trigger or not, and between that and the difficulties of hammering out an astronomical contract in short amount of time, I think somehow or another Johan Santana will still be a Twin when the meetings are over.
• Miguel Cabrera will not be a Marlin by the end of the meetings. Not much has come out about him in the past week, but I believe a deal for him is far from dead. It sounded like the Angels had come all the way up to the Marlins' full initial asking price for Cabrera, and all of sudden the Marlins decided to ask for a bunch more to make the deal happen. This ticked off the Angels, but the two sides will likely strike up conversation again at the winter meetings. Personally, I think the Marlins are willing to take the Angels offer, but really like what the Dodgers could potentially offer. My guess is that Florida is trying to create a bidding war between the two of them to extract as much as they can out of one of the teams for Miguel Cabrera. It's good, hard negotiating, which is what the team should use with such a valuable player as Cabrera. The only question is if they were so hard that they turned the Angels off for good. It seems like the Angels are hell-bent on winning though, sparing no expense and guarding no prospect, so I think it would nearly be impossible for the Marlins to disgust the Angels so badly that they would lose all interest in Miguel Cabrera . Unless the Dodgers decide in the next few days that Clayton Kershaw and Matt Kemp can go to the Marlins, I expect to see the Marlins trade Miguel Cabrera to the Angels for Howie Kendrick, Jeff Mathis, Joe Saunders, and Reggie Willits.
• The Mariners will walk away from the winter meetings with a new starting pitcher. The rumor tonight is that they have given Hiroki Kuroda a 4-year, $44 million offer, and I believe he will accept that. In addition, Kuroda will be the biggest free agent signing that any team makes during the winter meetings (not a real bold prediction looking at the free agents available). Even if the M's don't land Kuroda, they will trade for someone. They are not leaving these winter meetings without a new starting pitcher.
• No one will walk away with either Joe Blanton or Dan Haren. Anyone who has read Moneyball and remembers Billy Beane's trading rules knows that he will never do a deal because he needs to. The Mets are the logical fit, but they do not have the pieces to get a trade done now that they got rid of Milledge, because I doubt the A's care about Carlos Gomez's speed all the much. The only reason Beane is entertaining offers for either pitcher is because the free agent pitching market is so weak, and so many teams seem desperate for pitching. Beane understands the principle of supply and demand, and that he has the kind of high ground that allows him to leave the bargaining table unless he gets everything he wants. The bottom line is that a team will have to blow away the A's to acquire either Blanton or Haren, which no team is willing to do.
• The Rangers will be rumored to be after Orioles starter Erik Bedard, but not come close to acquiring him. Admittedly, I am pulling this one completely out of thin air, but it makes too much sense and I am trying to make bold predictions. Texas desperately needs starting pitching, wants to make a splash this off-season, and has plenty of money to burn since Torii Hunter did not sign with them. There are already murmurs that Baltimore will listen to offers for Bedard, and even if Texas never actually inquires, at the very least some reporter will make this Bedard-Texas connection and spin it into an inside scoop.

There are five bold predictions for the winter meetings. Whether any of them are correct will be known by Wednesday.