M's In the 2000s: A Series of Fun Facts

Everyone has some sort of decade in review of their own. Time to add mine to the masses. Staying true to this blog's title, this post is a true Mariners musing. Here is a review of the decade that was for the Seattle Mariners, in a series of fun facts:

• Average regular season record (rounded to the nearest win) in the decade: 84-78
• 9-10 record in postseason games in the decade
• Three general managers and five managers in the decade
• Two Rookies of the Year (Kazuhiro Sasaki in 2000, and Ichiro in 2001)
• One MVP (Ichiro in 2001)
• One Manager of the Year (Lou Piniella in 2001)
• One All-Star Game hosted (2001)
• No Cy Young awards or World Championships

Here are some fun facts about the hitters:

• Ichiro played the most games (1,426). Raul Ibanez played the second most (847).
• Ichiro had the most hits of any Mariner in the decade with 2,030. Not a big surprise. What's incredible is that he had almost 400 more than #2 and #3 combined.
• Ichiro had more intentional walks (142) than #2 through #4 combined (130)
• Ichiro had more triples (68) than #2 through #5 combined (67)
• Ichiro had more steals (341) than #2 through #5 combined (325)
• Ichiro also led the team in at-bats, plate appearances, runs, doubles, and hit-by-pitches
• Most RBIs in the decade? That's Ichiro too, with 515.
• Bret Boone hit more home runs than any other Mariner in the decade (127)
• Dan Wilson had more sacrifice hits (a.k.a. successful bunts) than any other Mariner (37)
• Mike Cameron struck out the most times (601)
• John Olerud drew the most walks (418), had the most sacrifice flies (36), and grounded into the most double plays (83)

The pitchers aren't quite as fun to look at as the hitters. Their biggest problem is that none of them are Ichiro:

• Jamie Moyer had the most wins (93), complete games (10), and innings pitched (1,371.1)
• Arthur Rhodes made the most pitching appearances (312)
• Aaron Sele pitched more complete game shutouts (4) than any other M's starter this decade
• Kazuhiro Sasaki notched the most saves (129), though J.J. Putz finished the most games (207)
• Felix Hernandez struck out more batters (810) and threw more wild pitches (46) than any other Mariner
• Ryan Franklin balked the most (six times)

Finally, my personal favorite, which is hard to believe but true...

• Ken Griffey Jr. started and ended the decade a Seattle Mariner

Weren't those fun? They were definitely facts.

Morrow Deal Official

Brandon Morrow is now property of the Toronto Blue Jays, in exchange for RP Brandon League and OF Johermyn Chavez.

First, let's take a look at what the M's acquired. League features a power sinker, which he uses to induce mostly ground balls and swings and misses. His ERA was a bit high this past season, but there is every reason to believe that is due mostly to bad luck. Brandon adds nice depth to the back end of the M's bullpen.

Johermyn Chavez is a shot in the dark. I will take him over the originally rumored prospect, JP Arencibia, but I am not in love with him. I will say that Chavez is a right-handed bat with power, or in other words, the kind of hitter that isn't likely to ever come to Safeco Field in free agency. However, Chavez went from a sub-.600 OPS in low A two years ago to one over .800 last year. Did he find something, or have a fluke year? Nobody knows, but it's easy to guess what the M's think (or hope). Here is more on him, if you are interested.

The real question is what the Mariners gave up. Like many that first saw this deal, I did not like it. I am still not sure I like it, though I think part of the problem is just how awesome all of Z's deals have been. All of them have had virtually no risk with good to great rewards. This trade, on the other hand, could look bad. Will it though?

Brandon Morrow's biggest problem is consistency. On one night, he looks unhittable, while on others he can't throw a strike. If he ever irons out those issues, and errs more on the side of unhittable, he will be great. If that happens, this deal looks awful for the Mariners. However, if Morrow stays inconsistent, the trade does not look bad at all. Personally, I prefer someone consistently good over a boom-or-bust type.

For a little anecdotal insight, I migrated to Baseball Reference, and checked out the 10 pitchers most like Brandon Morrow through 24 years old (his current age) in MLB history. Here is the list:

• Jim Hannon
• Joe Kerrigan
• Justin Masterson
• Terry Adams
• Dickie Noles
• Bill Caudill
• Johnny Ruffin
• Joey McLaughlin
• Ramon Monzant
• Danys Baez

Not exactly a who's who of former all-stars. There are some solid players in that bunch, but nobody that was a real top-of-the-rotation kind of talent (though in fairness we don't know what Justin Masterson will become).

Meanwhile, if you are wondering like I was, here are the pitchers most similar to Brandon League at his current age (26 years old):

• Tony Pena
• Mark Lowe
• Rick Camp
• John Boozer
• Darren Holmes
• Huck Betts
• Keith Foulke
• Matt Whiteside
• Bo McLaughlin
• Matt Belisle

Not exactly a list of legends, but arguably better than Morrow's. Keith Foulke is probably the most accomplished pitcher on either list.

Brandon Morrow could become a great pitcher. He has the stuff, and we all know Bill Bavasi and friends did him no favors with the way they "developed" him. Morrow seems poised to figure some things out and iron out some of his consistency issues.

However, Morrow could be the next Terry Adams. He had a pretty good arm, and a couple good years, and even bounced between the bullpen and rotation for a few years in his career.

Brandon could also be the next Danys Baez. He had a great arm, flashed potential as a reliever, then was tried as a starter, and is now a guy that bounces from bullpen to bullpen.

History tells us that the Mariners probably did not trade a future star. It could happen, but I am not sure any of us would be up in arms if we just traded our generation's Jim Hannon.

Jack Zduriencik did not get fleeced. We can blame Bill Bavasi for another underwhelming draft pick. Or, we can blame him for terrible mismanagement of Morrow's development. Either way, this trade should be lopsided in Toronto's favor, but it is not.

2009 Offseason Plan (v2.0)

The time has come for a revised off-season plan. You can check out my first here. It came before the M's had made any moves. Obviously, much has changed between then and now, most notably the stunning deals for Cliff Lee and Milton Bradley. Here is what I'd be doing now, in order of priority:

1. One more bat - I think packaging Brandon Morrow and Jose Lopez could bring in a quality hitter. I'd have to figure out who, but that is who I would offer. That would leave a hole at second base, but that can be filled in free agency by a guy like Kelly Johnson, Orlando Hudson, or Felipe Lopez. One alternative to this I would look at is signing Jason Bay. I would offer 3 years, $30 million or so with a vesting option for a 4th year, and if that's enough, I'd be happy to have him. That clearly would not have been at the start of the off-season, but the climate has changed. If Bay really wants to be a Mariner, that might be enough. We could at least find out. If neither a trade nor Bay pan out, I'd secure Russell Branyan.
2. One more dependable starter - The M's are more then set at the top with Felix Hernandez and Cliff Lee. What would be ideal is to find another dependable guy to go with Ryan Rowland-Smith. Someone who will throw a solid six innings on a consistent basis. If you are looking for an intriguing free agent name, there is Randy Johnson. More realistic free agent targets are Jarrod Washburn, Jon Garland, Doug Davis, and Joel Pineiro. Of the bunch, I probably like Garland best, though the price for Washburn might be right. I am not sure there is a logical guy to trade for out there.
3. Sign Felix Hernandez to a long-term deal - The King likes Seattle right now, and he should only like it even more with the way the off-season has gone. Also, he won't earn as much money in arbitration as he would in a contract extension, and all of a sudden that couple million saved might be worth placing towards a different piece of the puzzle. The M's look like an 85-88 win team on paper right now. Another four victories or so, and they go from probably on the outside of the playoffs to probably in. In other words, the Mariners are right in the vicinity where spending money even on rather small improvements is well worth it. That was not the case at the start of the off-season. Felix can wait at least until possible free-agent fits are no longer available. Still, the fact remains that Felix is an integral part of this team's long-term future.
4. Sign some catchers to minor league deals - They already have Eliezer Alfonzo, but I want more. Sign as many as possible, and keep the best ones.  That's how I prefer to use the minor league free agent process.

The best-case scenario is a trade that brings in a cost-effective player. However, there are free agents out there that make the 2010 Mariners a playoff contender, especially if the Angels continue to get shut out of major aquisitions.

Looking at the free agent options I suggested in this plan, it may take $15-$20 million to secure all the pieces. That is probably more than the M's have to play with. I would be interested to see if ownership is willing to go over payroll. I would push for that with this team, because they are at a point where one player might be the difference between going to the playoffs or not. That, by itself, is remarkable, especially given where this team was about 15 months ago.

UPDATE (9:14 PM) - The plan is already blown. Looks like Brandon Morrow is going to Toronto for Brandon League and a prospect. Interested to hear details, but clearly he is no centerpiece of a deal for a hitter.

UPDATE (9:28 PM) - As of now, it's looking like the prospect is C J.P. Arencibia. There goes my idea of adding minor league catchers too. I should stop trying to make up off-season plans. This deal, whoever is involved, is post-worthy.