League & Delabar Traded; Mariners Continue Rebuilding

Today is my birthday, but I got one of my presents early this year. Wrapped up with a bow on his head, the Mariners sent Brendan League to the Dodgers for a pair of minor league prospects. The Mariners also completed a deal with Toronto that sent Steve Delabar away, continuing their trend of giving away players during this home stand.

Fortnight Over

The silence has been deafening. We went a fortnight between posts at the Musings. There is activity behind the scenes. Free time has been sparse with my work schedule this month, and what free time I've had has been sunk into draft prep.

It's time for a post of some sort though. Let's talk about the state of the Mariners roster. The series against the Rockies and Rangers were largely awesome. The current series against the Angels has been a bust so far. This team is up and down, which is hard to watch at times, but I'll gladly take it over the down and really down we've dealt with the past couple seasons. Still, are there any major roster inefficiencies at this point? Here are my takes:

Sinking League

This one's for Allen. He hasn't enjoyed Brandon League's recent inability to save one-run ballgames.* Allen asked me what's wrong with League, and I said nothing. We went back and forth for a bit, and I steadfastly stuck to my initial statement. However, I have to admit that I haven't seen League pitch much this season (I follow on the radio for the most part), and I didn't have any numbers in front of me as Allen and I texted back and forth.

*I haven't either, for the record.

I've looked at the numbers. Brandon League is different, but he's still Brandon League. The only thing that might be wrong is League's pitch selection, but that's nothing new.

Sample size is a significant issue with early season reliever data, but that's only if we are worried with predictions. Data helps us paint an exact picture of what's already happened, and that's at the heart of what Allen asked anyway. So, let's look at the numbers so far.

There are concerns in Brandon League's 2012 performance. Through 14 innings, his K/9 is 5.14, which would easily be a career low. His BB/9 is 3.86, which would be about a walk per 9 innings above his career average. League's ground ball rate is currently at 48.8%, and if that holds, it would be the first time he posts a rate below 50%. These are all troubling numbers.

However, League has counteracted the issues with some good fortune (or a newfound skill?) He has stranded 77.8% of baserunners so far, which is a rate 10% better than what we've seen out of him his past couple seasons as a Mariners. Also, with more fly balls, League should be more susceptible to home runs. However, he is yet to give up one!

The pros and cons of Brandon League's 2012 performance have roughly balanced each other. His ERA is at 2.57, which would be his lowest ERA as a Mariners, if it holds. The numbers suggest that Brandon League has been a bit more of a heart attack this season, but ultimately as effective.

The stranded runners and lazy fly balls won't last forever though. League has some concerns. The issues are connected, and hopefully can be fixed.

Progress Report: Pitchers

Congratulations to you for making it through a month and a half of Mariners' baseball! If you're reading this, you haven't completely given up on the M's this year (yet). You also haven't gouged your eyes out from watching this team throughout the roller coaster ride it has been since they opened the year in Japan back in March. Since then, we have seen winning and losing streaks, blown saves, and the Athletics. Boy, have we seen alot of Athletics baseball. In fact, Mariners fans have probably been to more Athletics games than Athletics fans have this year (Zing!).

Since we've been through more than a month of baseball this year, I think it's time for a progress report. Remember back when you got progress reports in school? Remember when you would try to check the mail before your parents did so that way they never knew about that 'F' you got in Home Economics? Well, this is nothing like that. This is just me throwing out grades which I feel approximate how well the players have done so far and are in no way scientific. Simply put, these are my opinions. Feel free to disagree in the comments, I love a good argument.

For part one of this series, I'll focus on the pitching staff.

The Aftermath

So, the Mariners lost last night. In one of the most frustrating fashions in which they could have lost, they lost.

Since last night, I can't shake the feeling of disappoint that came over me after Brandon League gave up the narrow one run lead in the 9th.

When I can't shake something from my mind, I write about it. So, here is my attempt to shake my disappointment over last night, the same way an alcoholic might try to make sense of his latest bender the morning after.

Big League Closer

Brandon League (Getty images)

I didn't see this coming out of spring training.

Well, I did, sort of. We all knew that Brandon League would open up as the M's closer with David Aardsma on the shelf. What none of us knew was that he would convert his first nine save opportunities...and counting. For what it's worth, most of those have "looked" good too, meaning he didn't seem to be on the brink of destruction.

Even with League's good start, Brandon Morrow still has a WAR edge (0.6 to 0.4) in the early going this season. So, the much-questioned trade is still questionable at best. However, League has the edge in WPA (0.86 to 0.35), which he couldn't say last year with his fatty negative total.

Back to the current Mariners team. Maybe League is just hot right now, and he is bound to cool off. However, with Aardsma likely close to returning, there is no reason to mess with success.

2011 Arbitration Eligibles

2011 Mariners week continues with a look at the arbitration eligible players. Arbitration functions as a process to transition players from the league minimum salary to whatever their value is on the open free agent market. As such, all arbitration eligible players are a good value in theory.

There is a catch in most cases though. Often, players are out of minor league option years by the time they hit arbitration. So, offering arbitration to a player is often attached to a commitment to keeping the player on the team.

While there is the occasional budding star mixed in arbitration, the majority of these players are in the serviceable to solid range. In other words, the majority are supporting pieces on a roster. Since the majority of arbitration deals come at good value, the real question is if the piece is worth keeping or not.

Here are the decisions the 2011 roster has to make. Current salary is in parentheses:

2010 Mariners Preview

It has been a while since I've woken up and known the M's are going to play a game that matters. That is the beauty of opening day for me.

By now you have probably checked out enough previews and predictions, so I will try to take a bit different approach. Instead of giving some broad overview, or trying to give exact numbers, I will focus on key changes, and key players. With this team, that's more than enough to write about.

So, here are my reasons the 2010 Mariners won't be just like the 2009 bunch.

First of all, the changes:

1. Chone Figgins replaces Adrian Beltre - It is debatable which of these two players is actually better, but let's not forget how bad Beltre's 2009 campaign was. He missed significant time with injuries, and even when playing, they made him a shell of the hitter he can be. Figgins in 2010 will blow away Beltre's 2009 production, even if the defense isn't as good. This is one of the biggest reasons to expect the M's offense to be better this year.
2. Casey Kotchman replaces Russell Branyan - Kind of an opposite argument here to the Figgins/Beltre one. With Branyan's back problems, it is pretty clear who is the superior player right now. However, there is no getting around the gaping hole Branyan's 2009 production at the plate leaves. Kotchman won't fill it, but he should at least hit for average, and he brings a much, much better glove with him to first. Casey is a very different player than Branyan, but overall I think he is a better replacement then most are giving him credit for right now.
3. Jack Wilson replaces Yuniesky Betancourt/Ronny Cedeno/et al - Jack isn't a great hitter, but he's definitely better than Yuni or Ronny was in 2009. His defense is light years ahead of virtually every shortstop too (especially Yuni). It's easy to point at Jack and say he is a reason this team won't score enough runs, but don't forget who he is replacing from 2009. He is a big reason this team has a better starting nine this year - and even a reason it is reasonable to expect the M's to score some more runs.
4. Milton Bradley replaces Endy Chavez/Michael Saunders - I don't care how good Bradley's legs are, the defense takes a hit with him out there. However, he is the superior hitter. Yet another reason this team will score some more runs, though not as clear-cut if this is a significant upgrade, considering the defense, and Bradley's well-documented past.
5. The starting rotation has more upside - Chris Jakubauskas, Garrett Olson, and Carlos Silva combined to make 25 starts for the 2009 Mariners. That's not going to happen this year. Ian Snell is in line to eat up a lion's share of those starts. Certainly, Snell is a question mark, but I'll take him over the trio he replaces. Furthermore, Cliff Lee is in line to take Jarrod Washburn's starts, and while Wash was surprisingly fantastic, I'll take Lee too.
6. Kanekoa Teixeira and Shawn Kelley are taking over middle relief - Both of these pitchers have question marks around their ability to handle this role, but would you rather have them, or the Miguel Batista/Garret Olson/Chris Jakubauskas cross-your-fingers-for-a-few-innings mix the M's had in that role in 2009? I thought so.
7. Brandon League is in the bullpen too - Brandon Morrow, Roy Corcoran, and Randy Messenger combined for 44 relief appearances last year. A healthy Sean White and Shawn Kelley may take some of those appearances, but many of them will likely be handed to Brandon League. That's a good thing.

There are key holdovers to watch too. Here are some particular situations worth watching:

• Ichiro will be worse, but how much worse? Ichiro had one of his best years in 2009. Age and regression to the mean should catch up to him in 2010. He can't be banked on to put an equally insane year, though he should still be great. However, on a team offensively challenged, this is worth pointing out, and worrying some about.
• How good will David Aardsma be? I liked Aardsma as a breakout candidate last year, but never expected him to be as good as he was. He isn't likely to keep his home run rate as low as he did last year, and he has been beaten around pretty hard in spring training too. I wonder how long Wak will stick with Aardsma in the closer's role. I think Mark Lowe takes over as early as mid-May. I'm that worried about Aardsma.
• How good will the catchers be? I mean this in a positive way. The M's have suffered through a couple seasons where the backstops have more or less been a black hole on offense. That shouldn't be the case this year. Both Rob Johnson and Adam Moore have some offensive upside, and in this case, even being below average is a noticeable improvement. Johnson and Moore are more than capable of that. Plus, gone are the days of pitchers whining about Kenji's pitch selection.
• Will Ken Griffey Jr. be better than last year? Supposedly, Griffey's knee has been bad for a few years, but is better now. For what it's worth, Griffey's walk rate increased significantly the past few years, and his BABIP went way down. There is a correlation, but that doesn't mean causation, especially at Griffey's advanced age. If the knee has really been that big of a problem, perhaps Griffey can bounce back more than almost anyone (including myself) thinks he can.
• How good is Franklin Gutierrez? As big as Guti's 2009 campaign was, 2010 is in some ways even bigger. He established that he is a good player, but how good? It's easy to look at his breakout season, and assume he will regress down towards his career rates in 2010. That's okay if that happens, but I'm just going to throw this out there: Guti finally got a chance to play every day. He flashed some serious power at times in 2009. The M's want to see more of that, along with more patience. They've seen enough of both out of Guti in spring training to toy around with hitting him third. What if he sticks in the third spot, and hits around 25 home runs? That would put him close to 100 RBIs, if not over. Combine that with a decent batting average, improved on-base percentage, elite defense (and the newfound love for defense in the media), and a pennant run by the M's, and Franklin Gutierrez might get some MVP consideration.

The 2009 Mariners befuddled many experts, and just as people started to pick out what was skill from luck, the roster changed drastically. The 2010 team has tons of new faces, and more than its fair share of question marks. Combine questions with a poor spring training, and it is not surprising that the M's have gone from a novel pick to do great things, to an overrated posse with obvious holes.

For me, the questions remain unanswered. About the only thing I am sure of is that this team will score some more runs. How many more though? Will the pitching and defense stay just as good too?

I don't know how good this team is, but I think guys like Franklin Gutierrez, Casey Kotchman, Milton Bradley, Erik Bedard, Ian Snell, and David Aardsma will go a long ways toward determining this team's fate. I just listed a quarter of the roster, and that's the point. Turn anywhere on this team, and there is a looming question mark. No matter how much the roster is analyzed, those answers won't come until the season starts to unfold.

Hopefully the answers are more good than bad.

Morrow Deal Official

Brandon Morrow is now property of the Toronto Blue Jays, in exchange for RP Brandon League and OF Johermyn Chavez.

First, let's take a look at what the M's acquired. League features a power sinker, which he uses to induce mostly ground balls and swings and misses. His ERA was a bit high this past season, but there is every reason to believe that is due mostly to bad luck. Brandon adds nice depth to the back end of the M's bullpen.

Johermyn Chavez is a shot in the dark. I will take him over the originally rumored prospect, JP Arencibia, but I am not in love with him. I will say that Chavez is a right-handed bat with power, or in other words, the kind of hitter that isn't likely to ever come to Safeco Field in free agency. However, Chavez went from a sub-.600 OPS in low A two years ago to one over .800 last year. Did he find something, or have a fluke year? Nobody knows, but it's easy to guess what the M's think (or hope). Here is more on him, if you are interested.

The real question is what the Mariners gave up. Like many that first saw this deal, I did not like it. I am still not sure I like it, though I think part of the problem is just how awesome all of Z's deals have been. All of them have had virtually no risk with good to great rewards. This trade, on the other hand, could look bad. Will it though?

Brandon Morrow's biggest problem is consistency. On one night, he looks unhittable, while on others he can't throw a strike. If he ever irons out those issues, and errs more on the side of unhittable, he will be great. If that happens, this deal looks awful for the Mariners. However, if Morrow stays inconsistent, the trade does not look bad at all. Personally, I prefer someone consistently good over a boom-or-bust type.

For a little anecdotal insight, I migrated to Baseball Reference, and checked out the 10 pitchers most like Brandon Morrow through 24 years old (his current age) in MLB history. Here is the list:

• Jim Hannon
• Joe Kerrigan
• Justin Masterson
• Terry Adams
• Dickie Noles
• Bill Caudill
• Johnny Ruffin
• Joey McLaughlin
• Ramon Monzant
• Danys Baez

Not exactly a who's who of former all-stars. There are some solid players in that bunch, but nobody that was a real top-of-the-rotation kind of talent (though in fairness we don't know what Justin Masterson will become).

Meanwhile, if you are wondering like I was, here are the pitchers most similar to Brandon League at his current age (26 years old):

• Tony Pena
• Mark Lowe
• Rick Camp
• John Boozer
• Darren Holmes
• Huck Betts
• Keith Foulke
• Matt Whiteside
• Bo McLaughlin
• Matt Belisle

Not exactly a list of legends, but arguably better than Morrow's. Keith Foulke is probably the most accomplished pitcher on either list.

Brandon Morrow could become a great pitcher. He has the stuff, and we all know Bill Bavasi and friends did him no favors with the way they "developed" him. Morrow seems poised to figure some things out and iron out some of his consistency issues.

However, Morrow could be the next Terry Adams. He had a pretty good arm, and a couple good years, and even bounced between the bullpen and rotation for a few years in his career.

Brandon could also be the next Danys Baez. He had a great arm, flashed potential as a reliever, then was tried as a starter, and is now a guy that bounces from bullpen to bullpen.

History tells us that the Mariners probably did not trade a future star. It could happen, but I am not sure any of us would be up in arms if we just traded our generation's Jim Hannon.

Jack Zduriencik did not get fleeced. We can blame Bill Bavasi for another underwhelming draft pick. Or, we can blame him for terrible mismanagement of Morrow's development. Either way, this trade should be lopsided in Toronto's favor, but it is not.