Mariners Bullpen Far From Finalized

The one place the Mariners actually have some legitimate spring training competition is in the bullpen. As much as the Bedard trade impacted the M's starting rotation, its effects are prominent in the bullpen too, thanks to the departure of George Sherrill (86/84) and "return" of Brandon Morrow (75/81). Here is how the bullpen is shaping up as of now:

LOCKS TO MAKE THE OPENING DAY BULLPEN

• J.J. Putz (89/87) - He is one of the best closers in baseball, and there is no way anybody is taking away his job, no matter how he or others perform.
• Brandon Morrow (75/81) - Morrow went to Venezuela as a starter to prepare for a likely job in the rotation, but the acquisitions of Carlos Silva (75/74) and Erik Bedard (96/94) changed things. He will be back as the right-handed setup man, the same role he worked his way into last year.
• Sean Green (73/72) - Green was a bit of an unsung hero for the Mariners last year, but his breakout performance did not go unnoticed by McLaren and the front office. He will man primarily the seventh inning, as he did by the end of last year.

Depending on the number of position players the Mariners keep, that leaves either three or four spots in the bullpen yet to be determined. Here are the prime contenders for the remaining spots:

LEFT-HANDERS

• Eric O'Flaherty (78/83) - Though Sean Green was a pleasant surprise, the real unsung hero for me from last year's bullpen was O'Flaherty. He is a better left-hander than he gets credit for, even from the Mariners. For me, he would be a lock to make the bullpen, but that does not seem to be the case with the Mariners. He should take over Sherrill's role the last couple years, and even though he is not a lock, he is still the clear front-runner.
• Cesar Jimenez (60/72) - Jimenez missed a bunch of time last year due to injury, but showed some promise in Tacoma in his 16 appearances. He is healthy again, and the Mariners like him enough to give him a chance to compete with O'Flaherty for the lefty specialist job. Cesar has a very nice change-up, and it is the main reason the M's see him as a viable option this year. If I were in charge he would be ticketed for Tacoma, both because I think he still has a little room to grow before being a good bullpen option, and also because I think highly of O'Flaherty.
• Horacio Ramirez (55/55) - There is no spot for Ho-Ram in the rotation, but he's still making over $2 million a year, so it is hard to believe the M's will have no qualms sending him down to Tacoma to start the season. That is where he should be, but at this point he seems to be a leading candidate for long relief.
• Ryan Rowland-Smith (73/79) - I cannot tell what the Mariners are thinking with Rowland-Smith. Along with Morrow, Ryan was stretched over the winter to become a potential starter, though he was a long shot to make the rotation even before the Bedard trade. The M's seem quite enamored with Jimenez, and may opt to keep him and O'Flaherty, and send Rowland-Smith to Tacoma and let him develop as a starter. They may also decide to keep Ho-Ram around as a long reliever, which would also squeeze Ryan out of the picture. To me it is obvious that O'Flaherty and Rowland-Smith should be the two bullpen lefties though.

RIGHT-HANDERS

• Chris Reitsma (50/50) - Listening to McLaren talk about Reitsma, one of the bullpen slots may be his to lose. Chris has been a solid major league pitcher for a long time, but really fell off the table last year thanks to several arm injuries. He is healthy again, and according to the M's coaching staff he has looked impressive. If he returns to form, he would be a valuable pitcher to have. He is a non-roster invitee, so a spot on the 40-man roster would have to be cleared for him.
• Mark Lowe (68/87) - Lowe's rating in my system is based off of his 2006 numbers, because he did not play much in 2007 thanks to a very serious arm injury. Lowe throws hard and has good mound presence, but he still looks a little rusty to me. If the M's can afford to (and they can), it would be best to let him get back in the groove of professional baseball in AAA.
• R.A. Dickey (64/67) - The Rule 5 selection and knuckleball specialist does not have as good of a chance to make the roster now that Erik Bedard is in town, but he still has a chance. Thanks to the low strain a knuckleball puts on the body, he could pitch multiple innings on consecutive days, making him an intriguing option as a long reliever. His first couple spring outings were rather rocky, but his most recent was quite good.

OTHERS WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE

• Ryan Feierabend (57/72) - The M's are giving him a bit of a look as a left-handed reliever. He may be a solid option, but there are at least three better options for that role in O'Flaherty, Rowland-Smtih, and Jimenez. He should continue to develop as a starter in AAA.
• Jake Woods (51/59) - Also a lefty, but he simply is not as good as other ones in camp. He is off to a hot start this spring, and if he stays hot he may stick around and be considered a little more seriously.
• Cha Seung Baek (73/73) - Baek was going to get a look as a potential starting candidate until the Bedard trade, so now he is an option for long relief. However, I think there are too many pitchers in front of him the M's prefer for him to have a realistic chance.
• Sean White (65/65) - White was a Rule 5 selection last year, but did not play much thanks to an injury. Like Baek, I think there are too many guys the M's prefer in front of him. He was stretched out as a starter in the winter, and he may get a chance to continue to start in Tacoma.
• Jon Huber (53/62) - Huber turned heads when he posted a 1.08 ERA in 16 appearances with the M's in 2006, but really struggled in 2007. He'll likely have to bounce back in Tacoma before the Mariners strongly consider him again.

As of now, here is who I think the Mariners will carry in their bullpen:

• R.A. Dickey
• Horacio Ramirez
• Chris Reitsma
• Sean Green
• Eric O'Flaherty
• Brandon Morrow
• J.J. Putz

R.A. Dickey is the one I'm least confident on by far. I could see the M's going with Jimenez or Rowland-Smith instead, or deciding to go with only a six-man bullpen. Here is who I would keep in the bullpen:

• R.A. Dickey
• Ryan Rowland-Smith
• Sean Green
• Eric O'Flaherty
• Brandon Morrow
• J.J. Putz

Between more effective starters and Dickey, who can pitch multiple innings any given night, I think the bullpen would be just fine with only six members. Also, if the M's only carry a six-man bullpen, it will make it easier to keep INF Mike Morse (69/75), who is out of minor league options. As long as O'Flaherty takes over for Sherrill, I do not think there is much the Mariners can do to really irk me with their bullpen selections.

Mariners 2008 Offseason

With the Red Sox emphatically concluding 2007, the baseball offseason is upon us. The attention thus far has been on the Yankees, and rightly so with the departures of Joe Torre and Alex Rodriguez. At some point, a blog post may have to be dedicated to the Yankees, and free agency in general (my hitter and pitcher rating formula pages both have updated pay projectors, for anyone interested in seeing what free agents should be asking for). However, it would not be right to start with any team other than the Mariners.

The M's had two major shortcomings last year, one obvious and one not quite so obvious. The easy one to spot was the starting pitching, specifically the complete lack of a number five starter the entire year. However, it was not all the pitching's fault. The whole pitching staff was not helped out by the M's other major shortcoming, an outfield defense that featured the fielding equivalent of statues in left and right field. It is tempting to look at the 2007 Mariners and want to keep the team together, and just add a key piece or two in free agency. If the M's were able to do that, a 90-win season would seem well within reach. However, adding to this team is not the right thing to do. To start with, the pieces the M's need are not available in free agency, especially when it comes to pitchers. However, even if there were attractive free agents available, the wise thing for the Mariners to do would be to stand pat.

Starting with the everyday players, the only starter that may be lost in free agency is Jose Guillen. Granted, his offense will be difficult to replace from within the organization, but he also had very limited range in right field. In addition, Richie Sexson did not exactly have a sterling year offensively or defensively at first base. Ultimately, I think the Mariners' lineup will be just as good, if not better, if they move Raul Ibanez to first base, and start Adam Jones in left field, and Wladimir Balentien in right. This should provide noticeable defensive upgrades in left and right field, and perhaps even at first base. On top of that, it is plausible that Jones and Balentien's combined offensive production could rival Sexson and Guillen's combined production. However, given the defensive improvement, they have room to struggle offensively without making the team a worse one than it was last year. Also, by not signing Guillen, the team would save roughly $8 million dollars.

Like the everyday lineup, the pitching staff will be losing only one key member as well, Jeff Weaver. Though Weaver improved drastically after his epically terrible first month, he still was not worth $8.35 million. Unfortunately, Weaver was far from the worst pitcher on the staff either, thanks to Ho-Ram's lackluster performance. It may seem tempting to plug the holes with veteran starters like Josh Fogg, and though a move like that would improve the Mariners, it is not the best one for the team. Instead, they should promote from within here as well. Personally, I would let Weaver go and boot Ramirez out of the rotation, leaving two starting slots open. I would give Brandon Morrow one of them, and then have Cha Seung Baek and Ryan Rowland-Smith compete for the final one in spring training, with the loser being a long reliever out of the bullpen. It may seem very risky relying on such green, unproven players in two starting slots, but it has to be kept in mind that they are replacing Jeff Weaver and Horacio Ramirez, who did not set the highest of standards in 2007. There will be days where the two youngsters look bad, but there will also be days where they look great, and in the end the youngsters would be an upgrade. As an added bonus, the Mariners would save $8.35 million.

Honestly, I would consider it a successful offseason if the Mariners do absolutely nothing, and fill all their holes from within. It would save them around $16 million, and they likely would not field a worse team in 2008 than they did in 2007. If the M's keep that salary space open, and then let Richie Sexson go once his contract expires at the end of next year, they will have about $30 million to spend in 2009, which should be more than enough money to go after Johan Santana if he becomes a free agent. Imagine an M's team full of youngsters that all have a year of major league experience under the belt, and a starting staff that could feature two legitimate aces, plus an up-and-coming Brandon Morrow. Honestly, that trio would have a chance to reach the level of Mulder/Hudson/Zito, and Maddux/Smoltz/Glavine, which would be scary with a young offense that could feature 4 20-homer hitters in Adrian Beltre, Adam Jones, Wladimir Balentien, and Jeff Clement.

If the Mariners do nothing this offseason, they likely won't be a strong playoff contender in 2008. However, they will be quite young, pretty good, and gain the financial flexibility to explore adding a guy like Johan Santana, who in 2009 could be the piece that takes them from a playoff contender to a championship contender. Hopefully the Mariners recognize all the benefits of steering clear of the free agent market this offseason. Based on the moves they have already made, as well as rumors floating around, I believe that they do.