2015 Non-Roster Invitee Rankings, Week 4

Opening day feels pretty close now, in part because it is! Just a little over one week to go, leaving little time for remaining non-roster invitees to state their case. A reminder of the point system:

• 1/3 point for each out (- for hitters, + for pitchers)
• 1 point for each walk (+ for hitters, - for pitchers)
• 1 point for each strikeout (- for hitters, + for pitchers)
• (batters only) 1 point for each total base, 1 point for each stolen base, 1 point subtracted for each caught stealing
• (pitchers only) 3 points subtracted for each home run allowed

Here are the rankings going into this weekend (total +/-, change in point total from last week). Players in bold are still in MLB camp, and thus still in the running for a roster spot:

1. Tyler Olson (20.67, -0.33)
2. Jordan Pries (15, +2)
3. Endy Chavez (14.33, +1.67)
4. Jordy Lara (12.67, 0)
5. Tyler Marlette (12.33, 0)
6. Patrick Kivlehan (12.17, 0)
7. John Baker (10.67, 0)
8. Mike Dowd (9.33, 0)
9. D.J. Peterson (8.83, 0)
10. Stephen Landazuri (6.67, 0)
11. Justin Germano (5.67, 0)
12. Steve Baron (5.17, 0)
13. Franklin Gutierrez (5.08, 0)
14. Shawn O'Malley (2.33, -2.33)
15. Sam Gaviglio (1.67, 0)
16. Mark Lowe (-1, -4.67)
17. Carlos Rivero (-2.33, -8.67)
18. Forrest Snow (-3, 0)
19. Rafael Perez (-3.33, 0)
20. Kevin Correia (-4.33, -15.33)
21. Joe Saunders (-11.67, -5)

Non-roster invitees played much less in the past week because, for one thing, there are fewer of them in camp. However, starters are getting more playing time as opening day approaches too. So, there is not as much movement...except for those atrocious pitching outings. Mark Lowe, Kevin Correia, and Joe Saunders were all long shots to begin with and I would have to think they are eliminated from the opening day roster at this point. Tyler Olson remains the only real interesting story left, especially given David Rollins's PED suspension. If Lloyd McClendon chooses to keep a second lefty in the bullpen then Olson could very well be the choice.

Otherwise, there isn't much to say. Most of the non-roster invitees had bad weeks and they already were/are probably on the outside looking in.

Playing Pepper 2015

Daniel Shoptaw at C70 At The Bat always does a series of team previews with the help of bloggers that follow each team. The Mariners post is up, and I added my two cents along with Jeff Engels at Jeff's Mariners blog. It's a fun little read to get thinking about the big storylines for the Mariners in 2015. Enjoy it if you get the chance!

Bizarro 2015 Mariners, Part 3: True to the Blue

One of the great perks of writing this blog is a preview copy of Out of the Park Baseball, now in its 16th edition. This is very much a plug for the baseball simulator because it is well-earned. OOTP 16 continues the upward trajectory of baseball's most robust simulation game. There is a learning curve because of all the options, but for a hardcore baseball geek, it is nirvana.

I downloaded my preview copy of OOTP 16 and naturally chose to take Jack Zduriencik's post with the 2015 Mariners to simulate the 2015 season. What unfolded is epic enough to split into three posts. This is the second post in the trilogy. You can read part 1 here and part 2 here.

The season closed out without much drama. Standing pat at the trade deadline worked out just fine for me and my bizarro Mariners. The team went on some mini winning streaks, and in particular showed a good nose for beating up on the Angels in head-to-head match-ups down down the stretch. This opened up a lead in the division that ballooned into double digits!

In the end, my bizarro 2015 Mariners were the first team to clinch a playoff spot in baseball. In fact, the ended up with the best record in the big leagues, which was pretty surprising given that we finished 93-69. That's certainly a good record, but rarely good enough to top everyone. Before revealing what happened in the playoffs, here are what turned out to be some of the more entertaining storylines of the 2015 season:

Mike Zunino found his stroke again

The atrocious production of my catchers was laughable through the All-Star break. I sent Mike Zunino down to Tacoma when he was batting around .120 (not an exaggeration or typo). David Ross, whom I acquired, batted about .150. Thankfully, Zunino showed signs of life in Tacoma and he brought his rediscovered stroke with him back to Seattle when he got called back up in a desperation move to find some more offense. His season numbers left much to be desired, but he was worth about 1.0 WAR after the All-Star break. His finish was an underrated part of how the Mariners separated themselves in the AL West.

Ol' Lloyd knows how to work platoons

Seth Smith had a 3.0 WAR season, Dustin Ackley 2.0 WAR, and Justin Ruggiano 1.0 WAR despite missing a few months with an injury. McClendon's management of the pile of AAAA outfielders I gave him was nothing short of masterful. He mixed and matched and made a pretty decent outfield out of what shouldn't have been too much to work with on paper. By the end of the season McClendon was even mixing in Ackley in center field to get his bat in the lineup against good matchups.

The Jean Seguera trade was a disaster

Shockingly, Brad Miller lost some confidence when I acquired Jean Seguera. He regressed badly in the final few months of the year. Meanwhile, Seguera couldn't figure out how to adjust to life as a designated hitter. His OPS fell almost 100 points on the season after he came to Seattle, and obviously he wasn't contributing anything defensively. Thanks for pushing for a shortstop, Howard Lincoln. That worked out oh so well.

Brandon Morrow rises from the ashes

Brandon Morrow put together a second half for the ages. Lloyd McClendon installed him in the starting rotation from day one and that turned out to be one of his best decisions managing the team all year (you may recall me from part one dreading this choice). Morrow fired gem after gem after gem in the heat of the pennant race. When it was all said and done, Morrow ended up winning the American League ERA title. This is, at least in my opinion, the greatest storyline of this bizarro 2015 Mariners season. Remember when we all dreamed about Brandon Morrow and King Felix at the top of the M's rotation? And then Jack Zduriencik shipped Morrow away for Brandon League? Well, that wish came true in this bizarro 2015 season and it went better than anyone could have imagined. Brandon Morrow: claimed off waivers from the Padres on May 7, American League ERA champ on on October 6. Crazy.

The playoffs

Honestly, the playoffs could not have gone any worse, or at least been any more infuriating. The trouble started the day after the Mariners clinched their playoff berth. Kyle Seager came up injured with what turned out to be a broken hand. He would be gone for the next month, meaning he could possibly make it back for the World Series.

That wasn't enough though. I set my playoff roster, and then Robinson Cano woke up on the wrong side of the bed. He strained his back and was gone for a month, literally the rest of the playoffs before they had begun.

No Cano or Seager in a lineup that already struggled to score runs. Even worse, I could not make a substitution on my playoff roster for Cano because I was technically considered "mid series" even though the games hadn't started. So, I was also down to playing with 24 guys. The bench was a mess because I hadn't spent time building a ton of depth behind Cano and Seager. I had enough depth to cover one sort of comfortably, but not both at the same time. Jean Seguera got to play the field some, and Patrick Kivlehan got pressed into duty after struggling in Tacoma all year.

The Mariners faced the Red Sox in the first round, and fought hard despite such crippling injuries. They took the Red Sox all the way to game five before being defeated. In some ways that made the frustration even worse. Yes, the playoffs are a crapshoot, but it just wasn't fair getting dealt such an awful hand - and still, the team was so, so close to advancing. It's hard not to wonder what might have been with a more healthy team.

Then again, it feels so Seattle to have a team with some excitement and expectations tragically collapse. It felt like another example of OOTP 16's remarkably realistic simulation.

Boston didn't make it any further, so maybe the Mariners wouldn't have either. The Kansas City Royals took the Red Sox out in six games to advance to their second consecutive World Series. They faced the Dodgers, who finally found a way to make $200+ million transform into a championship.

Still, despite such bitter disdain at the end of my bizarro 2015 Mariners season, the OOTP 16 simulation got me fired up for what will happen in the real 2015 season. Baseball throws unexpected challenges and gifts left and right, and it's hard to remember those during spring training. It was fun watching the trials and tribulations of the the bizarro 2015 Mariners and we can only hope for similar drama and fun in the real 2015 season.

If you'll excuse me, it's time for me to start working on what's left of my 2015 team to get them ready for 2016. Howard Lincoln wants me to re-sign Brandon Morrow and he also thanked me profusely for getting a "top six" shortstop in Jean Seguera. My oh my...

Bizarro 2015 Mariners, Part 2: This Too Shall Pass

One of the great perks of writing this blog is a preview copy of Out of the Park Baseball, now in its 16th edition. This is very much a plug for the baseball simulator because it is well-earned. OOTP 16 continues the upward trajectory of baseball's most robust simulation game. There is a learning curve because of all the options, but for a hardcore baseball geek, it is nirvana.

I downloaded my preview copy of OOTP 16 and naturally chose to take Jack Zduriencik's post with the 2015 Mariners to simulate the 2015 season. What unfolded is epic enough to split into three posts. This is the second post in the trilogy. You can read the first one here.

I left off in part 1 mulling a massive deal. The Diamondbacks offered me 1B Paul Goldschmidt for 2B Robinson Cano and OF Alex Jackson.

I started playing with the trade proposal. I was comfortable dealing Cano for Goldschmidt straight up. I could go with Brad Miller, Chris Taylor, and Ketel Marte in the middle of my infield for years to come. Sure, the offense would take a hit without Cano, but would it in the end? Goldschmidt was a clear and obvious upgrade at first base and could immediately become the center of my lineup for years to come.

I was unwilling to part with Alex Jackson. The Mariners are thin on outfield prospects and power hitters. Jackson fills both needs. I wanted to offer up DJ Peterson in Jackson's place but, alas, at the time Peterson was injured so I was not allowed to try the proposal. I offered Patrick Kivlehan but Arizona would not agree to the deal. So, I backed off, and rejected the deal altogether.

Of course, Robinson Cano got injured the next week. He was gone for a month. Austin Jackson also hurt himself, so I called up a revitalized Franklin Gutierrez to take his place. He promptly got hurt a week later. Rickie Weeks, my Cano replacement for the time being, also decided to hit the DL during this time. Lastly, Hisashi Iwakuma must have felt left out, because he came up with a finger injury too. I was without all of these players for the majority of June.

It was time to tread water and hope for the best. The good news was that all of these key players would come back with plenty of the season left to go. I figured if I could go about .500 and stay within a few games of the division lead I would be okay.

Rickie Weeks came back from his injury first, but Lloyd McClendon didn't plan to play him above Chris Taylor in Cano's absence. Weeks hadn't hit much in his few at-bats to date anyway, so I decided to shop him around and see if I could pick up a serviceable outfielder with my glut of injuries. The Tigers surfaced with a somewhat surprising offer. I got Rajai Davis for Rickie Weeks straight up. Davis, thankfully, came over to Seattle and caught fire for the first month, right when I needed someone to do some hitting. Slowly but surely the team got healthy. More importantly, my bizarro Mariners never fell out of first place. I was starting to feel pretty good about the team.

Howard Lincoln was less enthused about the team - more specifically, one position. He remember his goals for me, and acknowledged that the team was doing better than he hoped. However, I hadn't done anything about shortstop. He really, really wanted someone besides Brad Miller or Chris Taylor or Ketel Marte at shortstop. I grated my teeth, forced my best grin, and went about making Lincoln's dreams come true.

It was really hard to find an upgrade at shortstop because Brad Miller was quite good. He established himself as the third best position player on the team behind Cano and Kyle Seager. Miller was having one of the better years out of a shortstop in baseball. Moreover, the Mariners were starved for runs, and only Cano had produced more at the plate than Miller.

I found one candidate that could work though: Brewers shortstop Jean Seguera. He was young, pretty cheap, and under team control for a while. He was also one of the few shortstops in baseball with a better OPS than Brad Miller. I needed to find an offensive upgrade, and Seguera would provide that while also getting Howard Lincoln off of my back. I went into trade discussions with Milwaukee, hoping to protect players on my 25-man roster plus D.J. Peterson and Alex Jackson, clearly my two best hitting prospects.

Milwaukee agreed to a 4-for-1 swap on July 9. I got Jean Seguera, they got SS Chris Taylor, SS Ketel Marte, OF Austin Wilson, and 1B Ji-Man Choi. I'm not sure why Milwaukee wanted both Taylor and Marte but at the end of the day I decided this deal had to get done. I had my guy. Actually, it is more accurate to say that Howard Lincoln got his guy.

Lloyd McClendon, bless his heart, put the greatest exclamation point on this deal. I was a little irritated by Lincoln's meddling, and apparently Ol' Lloyd was too. McClendon installed Jean Seguera as the starting DH and kept Brad Miller playing shortstop every day.

McClendon's shortstop solution opened up a new problem. Seguera took Nelson Cruz's playing time. Cruz led the team in home runs but that's about all that could be said about his production. He had been a mild disappointment and was on pace for about a 0.5 WAR season. The benching made sense, though it worried me gravely as general manager. Nelson Cruz, at 35 years old, was on my bench with three and a half years left on a $57 million deal. I needed to trade him ASAP - and by trade, I mean dump him. I was willing to take nothing in return if some other team was willing to take on his contract.

The Orioles decided that they missed Nelson Cruz too much. A week before the trade deadline I shipped Nelson Cruz to Baltimore for Alejandro de Aza straight up, no cash involved. While de Aza was not an amazing player he fit the roster pretty well at that point. He was right-handed and could play a serviceable left or center field. He was also a free agent at the end of the year, which was a perk to me. I wanted some financial flexibility heading into the offseason.

If you've been tracking all my moves in this season you probably realize already that I had collected a small army of mediocre outfielders. I had acquired Sam Fuld, Jae-Hoon Ha, Rajai Davis, and now Alejandro de Aza without trading away an outfielder (unless you count Nelson Cruz, which I don't). The offense still stunk and I had just traded away my most powerful right-handed stick. I needed to find a rental slugger and wondered if I could package a mid-level prospect or two with one of my mediocre outfielders to get the job done.

It turned out to be really hard finding a match, but I found a good enough one with the New York Yankees. Austin Jackson was having another rough year with an OPS hovering around the wrong side of .700. He was an impending free agent and I knew enough by July 26 to know I was highly unlikely to re-sign him. I shipped him back to the team that drafted him in the first place, along with John Hicks and Mayckol Guaipe, for OF Chris Young. Young could still play some center field but replaced Nelson Cruz's bat to some degree. The only way I was going to get someone better was if I used Alex Jackson or DJ Peterson, but even they weren't getting nearly enough in return.*

*True story: I tried to acquire the Braves backup first baseman (not Freddie Freeman). I thought this would be easy. Atlanta kept saying no to my deals so I finally asked them for a list of players they would consider. Their response? Only Robinson Cano. Not even other normal suspects like Peterson, Jackson, or Taijuan Walker would do. This is how brutal the trade deadline market was for hitters.

The trade deadline hit. I was still in first place, where I had been since late April. The Mariners had weathered a small barrage of injuries in that span, and while they still couldn't score runs too well, the pitching staff was phenomenal. Both King Felix and Taijuan Walker made the All-Star team. Felix, Walker, and Brandon Morrow (?!) had the top three ERAs in the whole American League, thanks in no small part to the best defense in the American League. The 2015 Mariners were clearly elite run preventers. I worried about the offense but decided to cross my fingers with hopes that Jean Seguera and Chris Young would be just enough to support my dominant pitching staff. So, July 31 came and went without any rumblings out of the Pacific Northwest.

It was time to hold on and hope for the best through the dog days of August and pennant chase in September.

Bizarro 2015 Mariners, Part 1: A Franchise Altering Proposal

One of the great perks of writing this blog is a preview copy of Out of the Park Baseball, now in its 16th edition. This is very much a plug for the baseball simulator because it is well-earned. OOTP 16 continues the upward trajectory of baseball's most robust simulation game. There is a learning curve because of all the options, but for a hardcore baseball geek, it is nirvana.

I downloaded my preview copy of OOTP 16 today and naturally chose to take Jack Zduriencik's post with the 2015 Mariners to simulate the 2015 season. What unfolded is epic enough to split into three posts.

The start screen for OOTP 16. Another huge addition this year: official MLB logos!

Obviously, the way this theoretical 2015 season unfolded is likely far from what will actually happen. That's why I am calling this series the bizarro 2015 Mariners. OOTP, I believe, is a very realistic simulator, but I am not a realistic impersonation of Jack Zduriencik. I have my own preferences and those show through as the season unfolds. I also may have taken advantage of a few unrealistic quirks in OOTP's AI, but who knows? Sometimes other teams make weird decisions.

I took over the Mariners on April 5, the night before the home opener. I was tempted to wheel and deal and begin to mold the team in my image. However, given that we were 24 hours from opening day, that did not seem realistic at all. So, I restrained myself and went into the season with the hand I was dealt.

OOTP 16 includes extremely up-to-date rosters, meaning I already had Chris Taylor on the DL with a broken wrist (plus a handful of minor-leaguers, such as Ji-Man Choi, injured just as in real life). Franklin Gutierrez, Endy Chavez, Kevin Correia, Rafael Perez, and Joe Saunders had all accepted AAA assignments. Rule 5 pick David Rollins didn't make the team, so he wasn't in the organization at all. You would wonder such things if you are the type of person genuinely interested in the kind of simulation that OOTP provides. OOTP includes a Rule 5 draft in the offseason and tracks which players in your farm system are eligible for the Rule 5 draft.

Immediately a couple new features in OOTP 16 were obvious. I chose to play this simulation as "GM Only," meaning I would have owner demands to meet. This is not new to OOTP, but OOTP 16 includes a much more robust owner AI. Howard Lincoln (the game literally sends me an e-mail from Lincoln!) let me know that he expected a .500 season, but also included a 5-year goal to make the playoffs and an immediate goal to upgrade shortstop. The owner has always set an expectation for a record, but the long-term goal and meddling with roster specifics are new. I found Lincoln's request about shortstop awkward, given the presence of Brad Miller AND Chris Taylor (both of whom receive high marks in OOTP 16), but hey, it's Howard Lincoln. The fact that he wanted something more from shortstop felt very Mariners to me. I flippantly ignored his request.

The second new feature is how the GM interacts with the manager. OOTP 16 made a brilliant decision by adding detail and control to managers. The result is a more diverse set of manager traits AND a simpler game experience. In OOTP 15 I could micromanage the pitching staff, bench, and lineups, and if I forgot to do that when I made a roster move a hole would stay open for days, if not weeks. Now the manager controls those decisions, meaning I don't worry about them as the simulation unfolds. This feels much more lifelike and also made the whole season more enjoyable to simulate. It also led me to pay more attention to Lloyd McClendon's tendencies and what kind of a roster might work well under his leadership.

OOTP 16 labeled Lloyd McClendon's managerial style as "Unorthodox" with a "Controlling" personality. I was very curious to see what both would mean as the season unfolded. I haven't played OOTP 16 enough to give any real definitive answers, but I have some guesses with the oddities I saw. Ol' Lloyd certainly had some unexpected tricks up his sleeve...

...which began on opening day. McClendon decided to go with Danny Farquhar as closer and he moved Fernando Rodney to the 8th inning. I have absolutely no idea why he did this, but I kind of liked it. Fernando Rodney did not like it at all, and within a few weeks I had an e-mail from him grumbling about his role on the team.

That wasn't Lloyd's only pitching staff surprise. J.A. Happ opened up the season in the starting rotation, and had a couple solid starts to begin the season, but out of nowhere McClendon demoted him to mop-up duties in the bullpen and lifted Roenis Elias (who he had kept as the second lefty in the bullpen) into Happ's vacant spot. Again, I liked the move, but as GM I was staring at $13.3 million of disgruntled human beings in the bullpen. It was time to find some trading partners.

I found J.A. Happ a home in Oakland on April 28, trading him along with INF Shawn O'Malley for RHP Jesse Chavez and OF Sam Fuld. I was pretty proud of the move for a few reasons. Chavez could take over Happ's mop-up duties and serve as an emergency starter in a pinch. He was also $4 million cheaper and had a few years of team control, whereas Happ is a free agent at the end of the season. Furthermore, Sam Fuld provided something the real Mariners desperately need - a capable backup center fielder. I sent Fuld to AAA, but could rest a little easier at night if something happened to Austin Jackson.

The Mariners had a decent April, hovering a little above .500 and hanging within a game or two of first place the whole time. The whole AL West got off to a luke warm start. May treated the Mariners well though, thanks to a seven-game winning streak that provided a little distance between them and the Angels at the top of the standings.

The waiver wire heated up in May too. LHP Neal Cotts hit the wire and he looked like the perfect second lefty for my bullpen, so I put a claim in on him and got him. The Padres also decided to put RHP Brandon Morrow on waivers and I put a claim in on him too. I viewed him as a Fernando Rodney replacement. Both Cotts and Morrow joined the M's on May 7. Three days later I sent Fernando Rodney and OF Gabby Guerrero to the Cubs for C David Ross, 3B Jenner Emetrio, and OF Jae-Hoon Ha.

I immediately installed Ross as the starting catcher and demoted Mike Zunino to Tacoma to figure out his swing. He was struggling to hit .100 with a sub .500 OPS. It was brutal. Ha is a classic fourth outfielder, capable of playing respectable defense at all three outfield positions with a middling bat. He provided more center field depth, which seemed needed because both Guti and Sam Fuld were hurt in the minors at the time. Emetrio, while listed as a third basemen, had a blend of defensive skills that suggested a future in the outfield, even possibly in center field. Can you tell yet that I was on a hunt for some center fielders? I wasn't in love with losing Gabby, but getting Emetrio back made the deal worth it in my mind.

McClendon agreed with me that Ross was the starting catcher. However, Ol' Lloyd had different plans for Brandon Morrow. He went into the rotation and Roenis Elias became a third lefty in the bullpen. I threw my hands up and waited for Morrow to break down...

...sort of. I kept dumpster diving on the waiver wire. The Rays put RHP Ernesto Frieri on waivers and I claimed him too. He joined the Mariners on May 13. Frieri became the third new arm to join the Mariners in a week. I already had the best rotation and fewest runs allowed in the American League, but free talent is free talent as far as I'm concerned.

Somehow the roster churn convinced McClendon that Dominic Leone should be closer instead of Danny Farquhar, even though Farquhar was doing fine. Lloyd was basically going with a closer-by-committee. Whatever. I didn't really care because all the bullpen arms were roughly the same skill level.

Then came a supernova of a trade proposal from the Arizona Diamondbacks: They offered me 1B Paul Goldschmidt for 2B Robinson Cano and OF Alex Jackson.

Wow.

The Mariners were in first place at this point, and Chris Taylor was about a week away from being healthy. LoMo was shockingly effective, actually leading the Mariners in hitting with an average unsustainably north of .300, and Robbie Cano was giving Mike Trout a run for the best WAR total in the AL. However, Paul Goldschmidt was threatening for the lead in all the triple crown categories in the NL, and that's right about where his true talent level exists. Goldschmidt is also quite a bit younger than Cano, quite a bit cheaper too, and under control for almost as long as Cano.

Would you pull the trigger? I'll tell you what I did in Part 2.

2015 Non-Roster Invitee Rankings, Week 3

The Mariners trimmed their spring training roster quite a bit this past week, meaning the team is taking shape and this list is about to stop moving around. A reminder of the point system:

• 1/3 point for each out (- for hitters, + for pitchers)
• 1 point for each walk (+ for hitters, - for pitchers)
• 1 point for each strikeout (- for hitters, + for pitchers)
• (batters only) 1 point for each total base, 1 point for each stolen base, 1 point subtracted for each caught stealing
• (pitchers only) 3 points subtracted for each home run allowed

Here are the rankings going into this weekend (total +/-, change in point total from last week). Players in bold are still in MLB camp, and thus still in the running for a roster spot:

1. Tyler Olson (21, +2)
2. Jordan Pries (13, +2)
3. Endy Chavez (12.67, -0.33)
4. Jordy Lara (12.67, +1)
5. Tyler Marlette (12.33, 0)
6. Patrick Kivlehan (12.17, +5.67)
7. Kevin Correia (11, +1)
8. John Baker (10.67, -1)
9. Mike Dowd (9.33, 0)
10. D.J. Peterson (8.83, -3)
11. Stephen Landazuri (6.67, 0)
12. Carlos Rivero (6.33, +3)
13. Justin Germano (5.67, +0.33)
14. Steve Baron (5.17, 0)
15. Franklin Gutierrez (5.08, 0)
16. Shawn O'Malley (4.67, +1)
17. Mark Lowe (3.67, -1)
18. Sam Gaviglio (1.67, 0)
19. Forrest Snow (-3, 0)
20. Rafael Perez (-3.33, -12)
21. Joe Saunders (-6.67, +0.33)

The Mariners ended up making two rounds of cuts between rankings updates so the grim reaper did some serious damage on the non-roster invitee list. However, as I mentioned last week, this is not an interesting group of players. There is only one story at this point, right at the top of the list. Tyler Olson has opened eyes with his performance this spring and launched himself into legitimate consideration for a bullpen spot. He has outlasted Lucas Luetge, who was cut this week and sits on the 40-man roster (for the time being.)

The only other somewhat interesting question is how long the Mariners will let Joe Saunders continue to pitch in their camp. He has been pretty awful and I don't see any way he makes the M's roster. It seems to me that they are doing Saunders some favors and letting him try to show whatever he has left for other teams so that he might be able to catch on with someone at the end of spring training. At least that's what I hope the Mariners are doing because the Mariners have several better options than Saunders available in camp, including the aforementioned Tyler Olson.

Check back next week for the updated standings, though with most of the non-roster invitees gone the list is going to stagnate quite a bit.

The Trouble With Spring Training Battles

Brad Miller remains my pick at shortstop
(image credit: Keith Allison, Flickr)

Chris Taylor and Brad Miller are locked in quite the battle to win the opening day shortstop assignment. Miller battled Nick Franklin last year and won, though this year's battle appears more intense so far. Miller clearly outhit Franklin in spring training last year, but Chris Taylor is more than giving Miller a run for his slugging money this spring.

That really should not matter though. Spring training statistics are largely useless. There are two fundamental problems with spring training statistics that compound one another.

First, there are sample size issues. Fangraphs includes in their sabermetrics library a handy guide for when different statistics stabilize - in other words, when stats stop fluctuating enough to suggest a player's underlying talent level. For batters, strikeout rate is the only thing that might stabilize within spring training, and even then a batter would have to play a full 9 innings pretty much every day (which is rare for anyone in spring training). The news is even less rosy for pitchers, where any hurler would need to pitch about 20-25 innings for anything to stabilize. This would mean tossing 5-6 innings regularly every 5 days - again, a fairly rare feat within the confines of spring training.

Still, let's suppose that some batters and pitchers reach large enough sample sizes for a few stats to stabilize. There is still a second significant issue. Spring training competition levels vary wildly from game to game, and even inning to inning. Teams will play split squad games, which means one team may have only half their starters and a bunch minor leaguers ticketed for AA (or lower!) Also, as spring training games progress to later innings, teams often sub out regulars and put in minor league players of interest, particularly early in the spring. So, any batter or pitcher compiling enough time to have their stats stabilize is almost certainly compiling a noteworthy percentage of their stats against minor league competition. The magic marks for statistical stability assume MLB competition 100% of the time so the minor league competition is an issue.

All in all, it is safe to say that there is no realistic way for spring training statistics to honestly reveal a player's underlying talent level. Neil Payne at FiveThirtyEight did an interesting study on spring training stats last year that looks pretty solid in  hindsight, but even his analysis came to a predictable conclusion: players with established track records who take quantum leaps forward or backward in the spring are probably going to be a little bit better or worse than expected, but that's about all that can be said.

Scouting reports on Miller or Taylor should not change in the next few weeks no matter what they do on the field. Perhaps Taylor's batting ability is a bit better than expected, but even making that assumption is haphazard if it is only based on his hitting tear in the Cactus League. Maybe it is a bit more reliable if scouts see something different mechanically in Taylor's swing, or if the Mariners also know something about Taylor's training in the offseason and/or have some measurements that suggest improved bat speed. However, these hypotheticals would still confirm the overall point of this post - spring training statistics say almost nothing on their own.

The M's shortstop battle likely boils down to whether Brad Miller or Chris Taylor fits Lloyd McClendon's vision of a quality MLB shortstop better. I think Chris Taylor ends up winning that battle, and that's based as much on how McClendon used Taylor and Miller down the stretch last season as it is on what has transpired so far in the spring. However, neither Taylor nor Miller has been declared a winner in the battle yet, so McClendon is still analyzing something. It will be interesting to see how he reaches his conclusion and when he reaches it.

2015 Non-Roster Invitee Rankings, Week 2

The early part of the spring wraps up with the first round of cuts, which should come any day now. So, some of these non-roster invitee point totals are about to become final, for better or worse.

A reminder of the point system:

• 1/3 point for each out (- for hitters, + for pitchers)
• 1 point for each walk (+ for hitters, - for pitchers)
• 1 point for each strikeout (- for hitters, + for pitchers)
• (batters only) 1 point for each total base, 1 point for each stolen base, 1 point subtracted for each caught stealing
• (pitchers only) 3 points subtracted for each home run allowed

Here are the rankings going into this weekend (total +/-, change in point total from last week)

1. Tyler Olson (19, +13)
2. Endy Chavez (13, 0)
3. Tyler Marlette (12.33, +3.33)
4. D.J. Peterson (11.83, -0.33)
5. John Baker (11.67, +2)
6. Jordy Lara (11.67, +6)
7. Jordan Pries (11, +5)
8. Mike Dowd (9.33, -0.67)
9. Rafael Perez (9.33, +2.33)
10. Stephen Landazuri (6.67, -0.33)
11. Patrick Kivlehan (6.5, -7)
12. Justin Germano (5.33, -2)
13. Steven Baron (5.17, -0.33)
14. Franklin Gutierrez (5.08, -0.67)
15. Mark Lowe (4.67, -1.33)
16. Shawn O'Malley (3.67, -0.33)
17. Carlos Rivero (3.33, +1.33)
18. Sam Gaviglio (1.67, -8.33)
19. Forrest Snow (-3, -3)
20. Joe Saunders (-7, -12)

Biggest Rise: Jordy Lara (up 10 spots)

Biggest Drop: Sam Gaviglio (down 14 spots)

The real takeaway from this list and these standings is that the Mariners have about as uninteresting a group of non-roster invitees as imaginable. Tyler Marlette is sitting in third place on the strength of some well-timed singles and stands to be among the first cuts whenever they come. Joe Saunders has been awful enough to lay to rest any suspicions he could grab a left-handed spot in the bullpen. Perhaps Tyler Olson gets himself in the mix with his phenomenal spring, but he profiles as rotation depth. In reality he's auditioning for a call-up midseason if/when injuries hit. He is the non-roster story of the spring to this point though - a true darkhorse, unlike more heralded prospects like D.J. Peterson and Patrick Kivlehan (who have also made solid accountings for themselves).

This list should naturally separate some more as players get cut and players on the bubble of making the roster get more playing time. The points system is designed to favor "compilers," which in other words means players that play more should be able to earn higher point totals.

2015 Non-Roster Invitee Rankings, Week 1

The Mariners have only played three spring training games so far, but that's plenty enough to overreact to the results! I will update the non-roster invitee rankings every Friday until spring training is over. Already there is quite a bit of movement.

First of all, here's how players earn and lose points:

• 1/3 point for each out (- for hitters, + for pitchers)
• 1 point for each walk (+ for hitters, - for pitchers)
• 1 point for each strikeout (- for hitters, + for pitchers)
• (batters only) 1 point for each total base, 1 point for each stolen base, 1 point subtracted for each caught stealing
• (pitchers only) 3 points subtracted for each home run allowed

After three whole games here are the updated standings (point total, change from last week):

1. Patrick Kivlehan (13.5, +9)
2. Endy Chavez (12.33, -0.67)
3. D.J. Peterson (12.17, +5.67)
4. Sam Gaviglio (10, +4)
5. Tyler Olson (10, +4)
6. Mike Dowd (10, +4)
7. Tyler Marlette (9, +2)
8. John Baker (8.33, -1.67)
9. Justin Germano (7.33 , +0.33)
10. Rafael Perez (7, -1)
11. Stephen Landazuri (7, 0)
12. Mark Lowe (6, -1)
13. Jorden Pries (6, 0)
14. Franklin Gutierrez (5.75, -1)
15. Steve Baron (5.5, 0)
16. Jordy Lara (5.33, -0.67)
17. Joe Saunders (5, -5)
18. Shawn O'Malley (4, 0)
19. Carlos Rivero (2, -3)
20. Forrest Snow (0, -5)

Biggest Rise: Patrick Kivlehan (up 18 slots)

Biggest Drop: Joe Saunders (down 15 slots)

Kivlehan's 3-run home run is easily the most exciting thing a non-roster invitee has done in the first three games of the spring. Already, even with the initial point spread, every player who gained points in the first three games find themselves in the top half of the standings. Maybe the most interesting thing is to see John Baker leapfrogged (at least for the time being) by some non-roster catchers who will clearly get cut as the pitching staff gets thinned. Ultimately that is probably good news for Jesus Sucre's chances at an opening day roster spot.

But really, this is a for-funsies ranking system three games into an exhibition system. If this is what three games can do, we can only imagine what a whole week of games will do.