Mariners Acquire Zach Lee

Zach Lee

The Mariners made a minor trade of sorts yesterday, in that it involved minor league players who are sort of prospects but sort of not. Jerry Dipoto shipped INF Chris Taylor to the Dodgers for RHP Zach Lee.

The motivation for the move is relatively obvious, at least from the Mariners perspective. The Mariners could really use some starting pitching depth, or pitching depth in general. This is more a function of an inordinate amount of injuries to the pitching staff that leave it dangerously thin than poor planning from the M's front office. Felix Hernandez and Wade Miley are on the DL from the starting rotation, and news just broke that Taijuan Walker is getting an MRI on his foot. In the bullpen Charlie Furbush, Ryan Cook, and Evan Scribner are all yet to make their season debuts. No team suffers that many arm injuries without consequences.

All in all, the Mariners have almost half a pitching staff with significant injury concerns. Furthermore, Jerry Dipoto had to work in the offseason to build pitching depth that was largely ignored and decimated by the end of the Zduriencik era. This is approaching (if not arriving) at a worst-case scenario for how the year could have unfolded for the pitching staff.

So, on some level, Zach Lee fills a need that developed with the way the season unfolded. However, Dipoto announced that Lee will report to AAA Tacoma, meaning he does not fill an immediate need on the 25-man roster.  He also does not fit the profile of a typical stop-gap player. There is a little more to this deal beneath the surface.

Zach Lee, not all that long ago, was an interesting prospect. The Dodgers drafted him in the first round straight out of high school and backed up a Brinks truck to the tune of $5.25 million to sign him away from playing quarterback at LSU. He signed, and the rest is history to some degree. Lee steadily climbed the minor league chain before stalling in AAA where has neither flourished nor floundered. Lee now profiles as a durable innings-eater. He doesn't miss a ton of AAA bats, which suggests he will pitch to even more contact in the majors. However, Lee also does not walk that many batters. One might say he controls the zone. I would sandwich Lee somewhere between Blake Beavan and Doug Fister, for those of us who enjoy comps.

Chris Taylor is sort of a known commodity. I saw him play several times in Tacoma and am sorry to see him go. He has hit too much in AAA to stay as anemic in the majors as he has. Taylor has gap power and just needs to cut down on strikeouts to stick and be a serviceable MLB infielder. He has no amazing tools but relatively few weaknesses as well. Taylor is simply a solid, fundamentally sound baseball player.

This trade is about more than immediate depth though. Zach Lee is almost exactly a year younger than Chris Taylor with about half a season less of MLB experience. Maybe more importantly, only one of his option years is used up. Lee might never become a frontline starter in the M's rotation, but he brings several years of minimal cost-controlled certainty to the team.

If the Mariners really just needed another arm they could have probably found a veteran for cheap. For instance, Mat Latos is in DFA limbo right now after the White Sox removed him from their roster. There were ways to add arms that involved holding on to a guy like Chris Taylor.

So this move isn't just about the injuries to Mariner arms. Zach Lee fits the Dipoto mold. He throws lots of strikes and comes to Seattle with lots of cheap, team-controlled years. I would hazard to guess that Lee has been on the Dipoto's radar for some time but Dipoto was holding out for a better deal that did not involve Chris Taylor. However, the M's current situation might have convinced Dipoto to pull the trigger.

In general, I would rather be the team acquiring a shortstop for a pitcher. However, Lee's extra team-controlled years and the immediate need for pitching depth over infield depth have to be considered. I think the Mariners gave up a better player than they received but they might have acquired the better asset. Lee won't just add depth this season; he adds depth for many seasons to come and he is young enough to still develop a bit.

Taylor Up, Bloomquist Gone

Hey look, that's Jose Vidro in the background!
(Wikimedia Commons, authors OlympianX & Andrew Klein)

The Mariners called up Chris Taylor today and to make space designated Willie Bloomquist for assignment.

Taylor is younger than Bloomquist and also a better player. He brings superior defense at shortstop and likely second base - and maybe even all the other spots Bloomquist plays if he is asked to go wherever just like Willie Ballgame has had to do throughout his career. Taylor also flashes surprising power in the minors for his build and swing type, but by no means is he a power hitter. Still, he probably possesses more power than Bloomquist.

So, basically, Chris Taylor is a better baseball player than Willie Bloomquist in all phases of the game. The most surprising part of this move is how long Bloomquist survived on the roster, given the M's depth of solid middle infield prospects. I don't know why the Mariners pulled the trigger on this move today or what kind of playing time Taylor will receive moving forward, but it is fair to assume that this move is skin deep as far as its motives. The Mariners are a more talented team with Chris Taylor taking Willie Bloomquist's place.

Few players have a career quite like Bloomquist. He is the definition of replacement level. In 3,136 plate appearances he has amassed a grand total of 1.0 WAR. For comparison, that's about what Mike Trout has produced every three weeks or so while in the majors. Bloomquist took about 12 years longer to accumulate the same amount of production.

I never understood why the Mariners signed Willie Bloomquist for two years in the 2013 offseason. Anyone could see the middle infield logjam developing from a mile away, and here we are. They signed him after they had Robinson Cano in the fold, and well before Nick Franklin got traded away. The deal never made any sort of sense, and while it didn't break the budget, it still seemed so unnecessary. In fact, why couldn't the money the M's threw at Bloomquist been used on a legitimate backup catcher?

None of these issues I have with Willie Bloomquist and his contract really have to do with Willie Bloomquist. It's amazing to look at his lengthy career in the majors, devoid of anything approximating a "career year" or anything that gave hope he might have a short stint as a serviceable starter, and wonder just how he hung around for so long. It's not like the Mariners were the only team to irrationally love him. Both the Royals and Diamondbacks employed him too. Maybe one organization could be dumb and make silly mistakes year after year. Three organizations making the same irrational choice is less likely.

I can only find one logical conclusion: Willie Bloomquist is legitimately one of the "good guys" in baseball. He must be fun to have around a clubhouse and the kind of guy that has the respect of his peers. Bloomquist never played much, and when he did he was neither an asset nor too large of a liability, so there is no good reason he should have stuck around the majors so long. He must have brought other things to the table that don't show up in box scores.

For instance, Peter Gammons tweeted out today that Adam Jones credits Bloomquist for much of his success. I find that fascinating. Jones didn't spend much time with Bloomquist as a pro. We barely got to know Adam Jones in Mariner blue before he left in the ill-fated Erik Bedard deal, and yet he was apparently around long enough for Willie Ballgame to do something influential and momentous for him.

So consider this my farewell to Willie Bloomquist. I like Chris Taylor quite a bit and thought he should have been on the ballclub at least a month ago, so I can't say I'm sorry to see Bloomquist go. However, Bloomquist's 72 at-bats this season are also not the reason the Mariners have struggled. They hardly made a dent on the field, in true Bloomquist fashion.

Minor Leaguers of Note, April

The Mariners graduated quite a bit of talent to the major leagues the last few seasons, which means there are few "household" prospect names down on the farm. This makes it a bit of a fun time to tune in and see what happens because the names and numbers feel more fresh and unknown.

Obviously, the season is only a month old. Supposedly the Mariners are much better than they have shown, particularly in Houston so far, so supposedly all of the following minor leaguers could be much better or worse than they have been so far. However, a month is a month, and perhaps some of these great starts are a harbinger of bigger things to come. Here are 14 players of note from the first month of the minor league seasons. Each team name is linked to stats for all players on that roster:

Tacoma Rainiers (AAA)

• Chris Taylor, SS - Taylor seems to have recovered from his broken wrist in spring training. He is hitting with some authority in AAA and has sprinkled in 6 steals. He is also playing some second base thanks to the presence of Ketel Marte, which shows off his versatility. It is only a matter of time until Taylor gets called up to Seattle.
• Patrick Kivlehan, LF - Kivlehan has done well his first month in AAA, slugging five home runs and stealing five bases.
• Justin Germano, RHP - Germano is a journeyman, but his eye-popping start to the season should be noted. 20 innings, 7 hits, 4 walks, 17 strikeouts. He is unlikely to maintain such amazing success, but a tip of the cap to an unheralded minor league signing in the offseason.
• Mark Lowe, RHP - Lowe isn't recovering his triple-digit velocity from many years ago, but the results are great so far: 8 innings, 7 hits, 0 walks, 11 strikeouts. The lack of walks is particularly promising.

Jackson Generals (AA)

• Dario Pizzano, LF - Pizzano has flown underneath the radar but hit well in the lower minors in previous years. He has continued to hit in Jackson, to the tune of a .410 batting average to date. He hasn't shown much power, and such a high average is unsustainable, but eventually his hitting might get some more recognition.
• Stephen Landazuri, RHP - I thought Landazuri might get more of a look in spring training, but he looked solid in his limited opportunities and is off to a nice start in Jackson. He remains on the Brandon Maurer track to success as a late-round high school pick that the Mariners have developed. 
• Misael Siverio, LHP - Siverio is old for the league at age 25, but this is his first year playing baseball outside of Cuba. So far AA hitters have struggled to make contact against him in his 3 starts. It will be interesting to see how he fares as he settles in and sees some teams multiple times.

Bakersfield Blaze (A+)

• Tyler Marlette, C - Marlette has been an under-the-radar darling for a few years, and I was a bit disappointed to see him open up in the Cal League instead of in AA with Jackson. He has come out of the gate swinging and seems to be in line for a promotion at some point this season.
• Edwin Diaz, RHP - There's an argument to be made that Diaz is the M's best starting pitching prospect in the minors at this point, particularly with the tragic and untimely passing of Victor Sanchez this spring. Diaz is straight-up dealing in the Cal League, to the tune of a 1.44 ERA on the strength of a 0.76 WHIP with 27 strikeouts in 25 innings. This could be Diaz's breakout campaign.
• Trey Cochran-Gill, RHP - Some believe Trey profiles as a reliever who will quickly work his way through the minor leagues. His first month in Bakersfield only strengthens that view of him. 14.2 IP, 5 hits, 2 walks, 14 strikeouts. That will do. I doubt Cochran-Gill finishes the year in Bakersfield.

Clinton Lumberkings (A)

• Joe DeCarlo, 3B - DeCarlo is raw but has flashed above average power from the hot corner so far in pitching friendly Clinton. He is worth watching as the season unfolds. Can he cut down his strikeouts and get his errors on defense under control?
• Gianfranco Wawoe, 2B - Besides rocking the best name in all the M's organization, Wawoe has hit very well in his first taste of full-season pro ball. Here's hoping he keeps it up so that there are more excuses to say his name.
• Daniel Missaki, RHP - If you want a comp for Missaki, think Erasmo Ramirez. Missaki isn't huge but largely depends on command to be effective. He has 4 walks and 30 strikeouts in 29.1 innings so far in his first full season of pro ball, and he will become a better known name as he works his way through the minor league system. He might also garner extra attention as a Brazilian, given the novelty of a baseball player hailing from Brazil.
• Pat Peterson, LHP - While Peterson is a bit old for the league at 23 his phenomenal start can't be denied. It also helps that Peterson is left-handed. I would consider him a strong candidate for an in-season promotion to the California League based on his age and strong start.

Lastly, another reminder of how little spring training stats matter. Remember all the excitement over Alex Jackson's bombs? He remains the M's best hitting prospect, but so far in Clinton he has batted .132 with no home runs. He has some work to do. Gabby Guerrero also has a sub-.600 OPS in Jackson so far. These starts also double as a reminder of how little a month may or may not tell us about a player's true talent.

The Trouble With Spring Training Battles

Brad Miller remains my pick at shortstop
(image credit: Keith Allison, Flickr)

Chris Taylor and Brad Miller are locked in quite the battle to win the opening day shortstop assignment. Miller battled Nick Franklin last year and won, though this year's battle appears more intense so far. Miller clearly outhit Franklin in spring training last year, but Chris Taylor is more than giving Miller a run for his slugging money this spring.

That really should not matter though. Spring training statistics are largely useless. There are two fundamental problems with spring training statistics that compound one another.

First, there are sample size issues. Fangraphs includes in their sabermetrics library a handy guide for when different statistics stabilize - in other words, when stats stop fluctuating enough to suggest a player's underlying talent level. For batters, strikeout rate is the only thing that might stabilize within spring training, and even then a batter would have to play a full 9 innings pretty much every day (which is rare for anyone in spring training). The news is even less rosy for pitchers, where any hurler would need to pitch about 20-25 innings for anything to stabilize. This would mean tossing 5-6 innings regularly every 5 days - again, a fairly rare feat within the confines of spring training.

Still, let's suppose that some batters and pitchers reach large enough sample sizes for a few stats to stabilize. There is still a second significant issue. Spring training competition levels vary wildly from game to game, and even inning to inning. Teams will play split squad games, which means one team may have only half their starters and a bunch minor leaguers ticketed for AA (or lower!) Also, as spring training games progress to later innings, teams often sub out regulars and put in minor league players of interest, particularly early in the spring. So, any batter or pitcher compiling enough time to have their stats stabilize is almost certainly compiling a noteworthy percentage of their stats against minor league competition. The magic marks for statistical stability assume MLB competition 100% of the time so the minor league competition is an issue.

All in all, it is safe to say that there is no realistic way for spring training statistics to honestly reveal a player's underlying talent level. Neil Payne at FiveThirtyEight did an interesting study on spring training stats last year that looks pretty solid in  hindsight, but even his analysis came to a predictable conclusion: players with established track records who take quantum leaps forward or backward in the spring are probably going to be a little bit better or worse than expected, but that's about all that can be said.

Scouting reports on Miller or Taylor should not change in the next few weeks no matter what they do on the field. Perhaps Taylor's batting ability is a bit better than expected, but even making that assumption is haphazard if it is only based on his hitting tear in the Cactus League. Maybe it is a bit more reliable if scouts see something different mechanically in Taylor's swing, or if the Mariners also know something about Taylor's training in the offseason and/or have some measurements that suggest improved bat speed. However, these hypotheticals would still confirm the overall point of this post - spring training statistics say almost nothing on their own.

The M's shortstop battle likely boils down to whether Brad Miller or Chris Taylor fits Lloyd McClendon's vision of a quality MLB shortstop better. I think Chris Taylor ends up winning that battle, and that's based as much on how McClendon used Taylor and Miller down the stretch last season as it is on what has transpired so far in the spring. However, neither Taylor nor Miller has been declared a winner in the battle yet, so McClendon is still analyzing something. It will be interesting to see how he reaches his conclusion and when he reaches it.

Rainiers Recap - 7/3/14, Reno 1, Tacoma 5

Skydivers entered the stadium pre-game. America!

I attended the Rainiers' annual Independence Day spectacular, and it was spectacular indeed! I also chose it as my annual game to take score at, simply to find out if I still remember how to score a baseball game. It turns out that I do, and armed with my score card, I'm capable of a nice little game recap.

Aces 1, Rainiers 5

Summary: This game was a cluster luck special, though the Rainiers gleefully accepted the good fortune. Tacoma, according to Mike Curto's recap, went 20 innings without scoring a run before breaking though in the sixth inning last night. Jordan Pries stranded base runners left and right throughout his seven innings of work, while his adversary for the Aces, Charles Brewer, proved largely untouchable until the fateful sixth inning. The Rainiers strung together six consecutive hits in the sixth inning, with the pivotal blow stuck by Ji-Man Choi, a bases-clearing double (sort of - Justin Smoak got thrown out at the plate, so only two runs scored despite the emptied bases). Abraham Almonte added a home run that appeared to land on the hill across the street right outside the right field fence in the eight inning, adding a finishing touch to the game and serving as a fitting prelude to the fireworks extravaganza that followed the Rainiers victory.

Game notes:

• Jonathan Stewart, a current NFL running back for the Carolina Panthers, threw out the ceremonial first pitch. He graduated from Timberline High School and obviously maintains a connection with his hometown roots. It is odd to see the best athlete on a professional field throw out a ceremonial pitch and do nothing else. The wonders of AAA baseball, particularly on one of the biggest nights of the year.
• Jordan Pries makes the most of his talent thanks to his composure. Ultimately, his pitching line was pretty nice - 7 innings, 1 run, 6 hits, 3 walks, 7 strikeouts, 99 pitches. However, the line does not capture everything. Pries labored early on, throwing 18 pitches in the first inning and 25 in the second, where he also managed to wriggle out of a bases-loaded jam. His only clean 1-2-3 inning came in the third. He worked around a Chris Taylor error in the sixth. Pries had to deal with the stress of a very tight game too, given that the Rainiers did not score until the sixth inning. Pries topped out at 90mph, which is normal for him (I've seen him start a few times now), and if he threw a few miles an hour harder he would get way more buzz. His ability to manage his pitch count, continually strand base runners, and keep the Rainiers in the game until they broke through, was probably a bit lucky, but not all luck. Pries has high "pitchability" as scouts would say. He knows how to pitch.
• Stephen Kohlscheen pitched the eighth inning for the Rainiers. This was my first chance to see him and I was interested to see him. He hasn't generated much buzz despite blitzing through the M's minor leagues with impressive numbers out of the bullpen. He worked a fairly clean eighth inning, allowing no hits or runs with a walk and a strikeout. The first thing that stands out about Kohlscheen is his height - he's listed at 6'6" and looks every bit that tall. His eighth inning enthralled me because I'm not entirely sure how he generates the results that he does. Kohlscheen doesn't throw particularly hard. He consistently hit 90mph, and occasionally touched 91 or 92 when he reached back for a little extra on his fastball. However, he generated a surprising number of swings and misses, and some batters looked late and uncomfortable in the batter's box. The best explanation I have is Kohlscheen's wind-up. He uses his height to his full advantage with a high arm slot, which creates an abnormally downward angle for the ball's path to home plate. Moreover, Kohlscheen appears to hide the ball well from batters by keeping his pitching arm low behind his back and plant leg most of the delivery. The first comp that came to mind as I watched him last night is current Mariners miracle-worker Chris Young.
• Stephen Pryor worked the ninth inning for the Rainiers. He sat at 92mph early in counts with an easy delivery. However, the old flame-throwing Pryor seems to still be around, because once he got two strikes on a batter he dialed up to 95mph, again with a relatively easy delivery. He gave up a hard-hit double (that, by the way, probably gets caught by a better right fielder than Stefen Romero, who took a circuitous route before jumping up against the right field wall to try to catch it) but followed that with two strikeouts to finish off the Rainiers victory.
• Nick Franklin extended his hitting streak to 12 games with a double in the middle of Tacoma's sixth-inning barrage.

  

  Jesus Montero (#40) didn't play in the
  game, but warmed up Jordan Pries a
  few times between innings.

• Abe Almonte had a very promising night. He saw 10 total pitches in his first two at-bats before getting aggressive in his final two. He ended up with two hits, a solid single the opposite way to left field in the sixth inning (on the second pitch of the at-bat), and the aforementioned bomb he pulled to right field that led off the eighth inning. What also made the home run impressive to me is that it came on the first pitch of the at-bat, off of Kevin Munson, whom the Aces had just inserted into the game. This suggests to me that Almonte's confidence at the plate is on the rise. He went into that at-bat knowing he would swing if he saw a particular pitch - clearly, he got it, and did not miss it. He wasn't just swinging at anything thrown, as evidenced by his extended at-bats early in the game. Almonte has holes in his swing and must compensate for them with a disciplined approach at the plate. He exhibited great discipline in this contest.
• Justin Smoak had an unassuming night at the plate. He went 1-4, collecting a single in the middle of Tacoma's sixth-inning outburst. The single in the sixth inning was easily his most impressive at-bat as it came on the eighth pitch in a 2-2 count.
• Stefen Romero is too aggressive at the plate. He ended up with a single in the sixth inning on a hard-hit ground ball that just eluded the shortstop. He only saw seven pitches total in his three plate appearances on the night and did not make memorable contact.
• Chris Taylor, despite an error on defense and a strikeout in the seventh inning, had a solid night overall. He got two singles, one to left field and one to right, along with a stolen base. He also did a solid job working counts, seeing 15 pitches total in his 4 plate appearances. The only plate appearance he saw less than four pitches was his sixth inning single, which he hit on the second pitch of the at-bat and got an RBI out of. At the time, that single tied the score at one. It turns out Taylor's single was the first of Tacoma's six consecutive hits in the sixth inning.
• Xavier Avery deserves a shout-out. He went hitless on the night but was a pest. He only got three trips to the plate but saw 15 pitches. This is even more impressive given that he only saw one pitch in his second plate appearance, which he dropped down for a beautiful sacrifice bunt that moved Humberto Quintero to third base in the sixth inning (right before the Rainiers strung together six consecutive hits.) Avery lacks power but has good speed and does little things that at least make him an annoying out.

The Rainiers hit the road for a week before returning to Cheney July 11 for a quick three-game home stand against the Fresno Grizzlies before the AAA all-star break.

Farmhands of Note (2014 Midseason Report, Part 1)

 Chris Taylor (photo credit: gty.im/480700409 by Mike McGinnis)

The Mariners play their 81st game tonight, exactly halfway through the schedule. That makes this time of year a nice one for reviewing the season so far, especially given that the trade deadline looms.

Minor league seasons aren't quite as a long as Major League ones, so they are passed halfway points or just starting seasons in the case of all the half-season affiliates. Regardless, it's time to check in on the farm.

This is a season of transition in the M's farm system because so many of the bigger names have graduated to the MLB roster over the past year and a half. Still, there are talents worth getting to know, some of which are posted here:

Tacoma Rainiers (AAA)

• 1B Ji-Man Choi - Choi lost most of the first half to a 50-game suspension. However, his limited AAA at-bats show more of what he's flashed throughout his minor league ascent: patience with a little bit of  power. Choi recently started a game in the outfield too; I'm curious to see if that was just to get him on the field with Justin Smoak rehabbing, or something more to add some versatility. Choi is a guy to watch closely over the next month. I'll go out on a limb and say that, with a good July, Choi is in the majors by August - either with the Mariners, or with a team he's dealt to in a deadline trade for a bat.
• INF Nick Franklin - I won't spend too much time on Franklin because he's a fairly well-covered player now. Franklin hits in AAA and is yet to produce similar results in the majors. Robinson Cano has displaced him. If I was Jack Zduriencik, this is the player I would center any trade around to acquire a bat.
• RHP Stephen Kohlscheen - A former 45th round draft pick (!), Kohlscheen has quietly and methodically risen through the minor leagues. He just got to Tacoma a few weeks ago, but he was fantastic in AA. Given the struggles of Logan Bawcom and Carson Smith in Tacoma this year, there might be a larger opening for Kohlscheen than most realize. He's not a big-time prospect but it isn't hard to see him quietly eating up some middle innings in a bullpen in the near future. He's my early favorite to be a dark horse candidate for the M's opening day 2015 roster.
• RHP Brandon Maurer - Technically, Maurer is a Mariner right now, but his ticket back to Tacoma will be punched any day now. He has flamed out as a starter the past year and a half, but reports are that his fastball reaches 98mph out of the bullpen. I am intrigued to see how he fares in a regular bullpen role, and given the aforementioned struggles of Bawcom and Smith, there are some bullpen innings to grab in Tacoma.
• RHP Jordan Pries - For now, the Mariners rotation is fine, though history suggests it's only a matter of time before Chris Young breaks down. Pries is easily Tacoma's most productive starter and might be next in line for a rotation spot at this point (assuming Taijuan Walker gets called up for Monday's start). I've seen a few Pries starts in Tacoma. He's all about "pitch ability" and command, though not quite smoke and mirrors. He's basically another Blake Beavan at best. That might not sound exciting, but don't forget that Pries didn't cost Cliff Lee to acquire (the Mariners selected Pries in the 30th round in 2011).
• SS Chris Taylor - Truth be told, the reason Nick Franklin is my top trade trip is because of Chris Taylor. I love Taylor. I don't think he's a star, but he's a darn good middle infielder and would have no problem stepping into a backup role on the Mariners right now. Taylor is a solid defender that has (and will) stick at shortstop, though he has also played some second base this year. He doesn't have the power that Franklin has, but consistently drives the ball in the gaps and has good speed that generates a few triples where others have doubles. I'll be surprised if both Taylor and Franklin are still in the Mariners system come August 1.

Jackson Generals (AA)

• 3B Patrick Kivlehan - The former Rutgers football player continues to hit, even as he transitions out of High Desert's friendly confines and into a more pitcher-friendly Southern League. His defense is still an issue, and it's bad enough that he probably moves off of third base in the near future. At least I would move him off of third base at this point, and a corner outfield spot would make a ton of sense.
• RHP Stephen Landazuri - Landazuri is a bit like Brandon Maurer in that he's a prep arm the Mariners signed rather late in the draft (22nd round in 2010) and have slowly developed. The fruits of their labor look like they are about to pay off again as Landazuri continues to post better and better numbers each year even as he faces more advanced competition. An injury sidelined him for about a month and a half, but he's back now, and should be watched closely in the second half.
• 3B D.J. Peterson - The M's first round pick last year just got promoted to AA in the past week. It's amazing to me that he continues to play as much third base as he has. If he has a future in Seattle, it's clearly at first base. I would start grooming him at first base now with an eye towards making sure he's ready to take over at some point in 2015, perhaps as early as opening day.
• SS Ketel Marte - The Mariners were very aggressive with Marte when they placed him AA this year. He's very young for AA (just 20 years old) and essentially skipped High Desert. However, Marte has made the Mariners look smart. While his hitting isn't amazing - he's a slap hitter with speed - it's as good as it was in Clinton. He's handled the jump just fine. Don't let the 23 errors fool you; Marte's calling card will be his defense as he matures. He profiles as an above-average defender at shortstop. It doesn't take much hitting for a slick fielding shortstop, particularly one with Marte's speed, to be an MLB-caliber player. Marte will never be a top prospect, but he's another reason that Nick Franklin should be expendable at the trade deadline.
• LHP Tyler Olson - Olson got promoted to Jackson when Landazuri got hurt earlier this season, but wasn't sent back down once Landazuri was healthy. Olson, a southpaw from last year's draft, is already 24 years old and needed to move quickly through the minors to become an interesting prospect. He has, and so far has struck out more batters than I expected out of him. He's a fringe starting prospect at this point, and could provide depth as a sixth or seventh starter as early as next season.

High Desert Mavericks (A+)

• OF Jabari Henry - Henry's path in the minors, at least at this early juncture, looks a bit like Stefen Romero's. Henry, like Romero, was a college bat that posted a deceptively good year in Clinton his first full season as a pro. This year Henry has erupted at High Desert's launching pad. If he continues to hit when he gets a promotion to Jackson, either at some point this summer or at the start of next year, he will generate buzz. For now the jury is still out.
• RF Gabby Guerrero - Gabby started to flash his power potential at the tail end of last year in Clinton and has continued to build on that success. His game remains raw across the board, but the tools are there and the production is starting to show up.
• C Tyler Marlette - The Mariners don't look like they'll need a catching prospect for a little while with Mike Zunino already producing in the majors, which makes Marlette a quiet trade chip for the upcoming trade deadline. Marlette can hit and his receiving skills continue to develop.
• RHP Dylan Unsworth - Unsworth's season stats are pretty bad, but those need to be taken with a few grains of salt in High Desert. He's been doomed by unsustainable hits allowed and home run rates, which are partly products of High Desert's extreme hitting environment. Unsworth has flashed potential from time to time, most notably with a 12-strikeout performance on June 20. He's also from South Africa, if you are the type of fan who likes to root for international prospects from unexpected baseball locales.

Clinton LumberKings (A)

• RHP Edwin Diaz - Diaz dominated in Pulaski last season and has followed up with a solid debut in full-season ball for the first time. I'm interested to see if the Mariners place him in High Desert next year or push him to Jackson. He's quite young at only 20 years old.
• C Marcus Littlewood - Littlewood might be in the process of re-emerging as a prospect after an arduous transition to catcher. He projected to have a decent bat when he was drafted, but that disappeared until this season. Perhaps the high learning curve behind the plate was too much until this season. Littlewood will stay under the radar for the rest of this season, but next could (and needs) to be a big one for him if he's going to be a legitimate prospect. His production this year opens up the possibility that he could emerge.
• OF Tyler O'Neill - O'Neill's season came to a screeching halt when he punched his hand into a concrete wall after a strikeout. Walls are still undefeated. However, pre-temper tantrum, O'Neill had 6 home runs in only 119 at-bats as one of the youngest batters in the Midwest League. It's historically a league that dampens power production, and 6 home runs over a full season for O'Neill could have been a success. He will hopefully be back on the field soon, and a strong finish to 2014 will put him in prime position to be a breakout prospect next year.
• OF Austin Wilson - Wilson is a bit old for the Midwest League, and given his strong production, I'm a little surprised that he's still in Clinton. The power Wilson flashed in batting practice but not so often in Pac-12 games last year has been apparent in Clinton, which bodes well for his future. He still strikes out a fair amount though, which isn't an issue in low A, but should eventually be an issue.

The overarching message should be that the Mariners farm system is not bereft of talent. Jack Zduriencik has developed a pipeline. It's particularly telling that a handful of later draft picks are developing - that's a sign that the Mariners are honestly developing talent, not just lucking into finished products.  The Mariners have a deep enough system to pursue some sort of bat at the trading deadline without mortgaging their entire future.

The Next Wave

The recent wave of promotions from AAA Tacoma has altered the M's farm system as much as the MLB roster. There aren't many of the M's top prospects that haven't been in the majors at this point. We are down to the big three - and of those three, I don't think Danny Hultzen stays down in AAA the whole season.

So who is worth watching in the M's farm system at this point? I have compiled a starting lineup, along with a left-handed and right-handed pitcher, with the following conditions:

1. No 2013 draft picks included
2. Nobody in AAA Tacoma included

The Mariners still have talent in the farm system, even with the limitations I've put on my search. Here are some players worth keeping an eye on, because some of them are bound to make the majors. Consider them the next wave of Mariners prospects: