2015 Non-Roster Invitee Rankings, Week 4

Opening day feels pretty close now, in part because it is! Just a little over one week to go, leaving little time for remaining non-roster invitees to state their case. A reminder of the point system:

• 1/3 point for each out (- for hitters, + for pitchers)
• 1 point for each walk (+ for hitters, - for pitchers)
• 1 point for each strikeout (- for hitters, + for pitchers)
• (batters only) 1 point for each total base, 1 point for each stolen base, 1 point subtracted for each caught stealing
• (pitchers only) 3 points subtracted for each home run allowed

Here are the rankings going into this weekend (total +/-, change in point total from last week). Players in bold are still in MLB camp, and thus still in the running for a roster spot:

1. Tyler Olson (20.67, -0.33)
2. Jordan Pries (15, +2)
3. Endy Chavez (14.33, +1.67)
4. Jordy Lara (12.67, 0)
5. Tyler Marlette (12.33, 0)
6. Patrick Kivlehan (12.17, 0)
7. John Baker (10.67, 0)
8. Mike Dowd (9.33, 0)
9. D.J. Peterson (8.83, 0)
10. Stephen Landazuri (6.67, 0)
11. Justin Germano (5.67, 0)
12. Steve Baron (5.17, 0)
13. Franklin Gutierrez (5.08, 0)
14. Shawn O'Malley (2.33, -2.33)
15. Sam Gaviglio (1.67, 0)
16. Mark Lowe (-1, -4.67)
17. Carlos Rivero (-2.33, -8.67)
18. Forrest Snow (-3, 0)
19. Rafael Perez (-3.33, 0)
20. Kevin Correia (-4.33, -15.33)
21. Joe Saunders (-11.67, -5)

Non-roster invitees played much less in the past week because, for one thing, there are fewer of them in camp. However, starters are getting more playing time as opening day approaches too. So, there is not as much movement...except for those atrocious pitching outings. Mark Lowe, Kevin Correia, and Joe Saunders were all long shots to begin with and I would have to think they are eliminated from the opening day roster at this point. Tyler Olson remains the only real interesting story left, especially given David Rollins's PED suspension. If Lloyd McClendon chooses to keep a second lefty in the bullpen then Olson could very well be the choice.

Otherwise, there isn't much to say. Most of the non-roster invitees had bad weeks and they already were/are probably on the outside looking in.

2015 Non-Roster Invitee Rankings, Week 3

The Mariners trimmed their spring training roster quite a bit this past week, meaning the team is taking shape and this list is about to stop moving around. A reminder of the point system:

• 1/3 point for each out (- for hitters, + for pitchers)
• 1 point for each walk (+ for hitters, - for pitchers)
• 1 point for each strikeout (- for hitters, + for pitchers)
• (batters only) 1 point for each total base, 1 point for each stolen base, 1 point subtracted for each caught stealing
• (pitchers only) 3 points subtracted for each home run allowed

Here are the rankings going into this weekend (total +/-, change in point total from last week). Players in bold are still in MLB camp, and thus still in the running for a roster spot:

1. Tyler Olson (21, +2)
2. Jordan Pries (13, +2)
3. Endy Chavez (12.67, -0.33)
4. Jordy Lara (12.67, +1)
5. Tyler Marlette (12.33, 0)
6. Patrick Kivlehan (12.17, +5.67)
7. Kevin Correia (11, +1)
8. John Baker (10.67, -1)
9. Mike Dowd (9.33, 0)
10. D.J. Peterson (8.83, -3)
11. Stephen Landazuri (6.67, 0)
12. Carlos Rivero (6.33, +3)
13. Justin Germano (5.67, +0.33)
14. Steve Baron (5.17, 0)
15. Franklin Gutierrez (5.08, 0)
16. Shawn O'Malley (4.67, +1)
17. Mark Lowe (3.67, -1)
18. Sam Gaviglio (1.67, 0)
19. Forrest Snow (-3, 0)
20. Rafael Perez (-3.33, -12)
21. Joe Saunders (-6.67, +0.33)

The Mariners ended up making two rounds of cuts between rankings updates so the grim reaper did some serious damage on the non-roster invitee list. However, as I mentioned last week, this is not an interesting group of players. There is only one story at this point, right at the top of the list. Tyler Olson has opened eyes with his performance this spring and launched himself into legitimate consideration for a bullpen spot. He has outlasted Lucas Luetge, who was cut this week and sits on the 40-man roster (for the time being.)

The only other somewhat interesting question is how long the Mariners will let Joe Saunders continue to pitch in their camp. He has been pretty awful and I don't see any way he makes the M's roster. It seems to me that they are doing Saunders some favors and letting him try to show whatever he has left for other teams so that he might be able to catch on with someone at the end of spring training. At least that's what I hope the Mariners are doing because the Mariners have several better options than Saunders available in camp, including the aforementioned Tyler Olson.

Check back next week for the updated standings, though with most of the non-roster invitees gone the list is going to stagnate quite a bit.

The Trouble With Spring Training Battles

Brad Miller remains my pick at shortstop
(image credit: Keith Allison, Flickr)

Chris Taylor and Brad Miller are locked in quite the battle to win the opening day shortstop assignment. Miller battled Nick Franklin last year and won, though this year's battle appears more intense so far. Miller clearly outhit Franklin in spring training last year, but Chris Taylor is more than giving Miller a run for his slugging money this spring.

That really should not matter though. Spring training statistics are largely useless. There are two fundamental problems with spring training statistics that compound one another.

First, there are sample size issues. Fangraphs includes in their sabermetrics library a handy guide for when different statistics stabilize - in other words, when stats stop fluctuating enough to suggest a player's underlying talent level. For batters, strikeout rate is the only thing that might stabilize within spring training, and even then a batter would have to play a full 9 innings pretty much every day (which is rare for anyone in spring training). The news is even less rosy for pitchers, where any hurler would need to pitch about 20-25 innings for anything to stabilize. This would mean tossing 5-6 innings regularly every 5 days - again, a fairly rare feat within the confines of spring training.

Still, let's suppose that some batters and pitchers reach large enough sample sizes for a few stats to stabilize. There is still a second significant issue. Spring training competition levels vary wildly from game to game, and even inning to inning. Teams will play split squad games, which means one team may have only half their starters and a bunch minor leaguers ticketed for AA (or lower!) Also, as spring training games progress to later innings, teams often sub out regulars and put in minor league players of interest, particularly early in the spring. So, any batter or pitcher compiling enough time to have their stats stabilize is almost certainly compiling a noteworthy percentage of their stats against minor league competition. The magic marks for statistical stability assume MLB competition 100% of the time so the minor league competition is an issue.

All in all, it is safe to say that there is no realistic way for spring training statistics to honestly reveal a player's underlying talent level. Neil Payne at FiveThirtyEight did an interesting study on spring training stats last year that looks pretty solid in  hindsight, but even his analysis came to a predictable conclusion: players with established track records who take quantum leaps forward or backward in the spring are probably going to be a little bit better or worse than expected, but that's about all that can be said.

Scouting reports on Miller or Taylor should not change in the next few weeks no matter what they do on the field. Perhaps Taylor's batting ability is a bit better than expected, but even making that assumption is haphazard if it is only based on his hitting tear in the Cactus League. Maybe it is a bit more reliable if scouts see something different mechanically in Taylor's swing, or if the Mariners also know something about Taylor's training in the offseason and/or have some measurements that suggest improved bat speed. However, these hypotheticals would still confirm the overall point of this post - spring training statistics say almost nothing on their own.

The M's shortstop battle likely boils down to whether Brad Miller or Chris Taylor fits Lloyd McClendon's vision of a quality MLB shortstop better. I think Chris Taylor ends up winning that battle, and that's based as much on how McClendon used Taylor and Miller down the stretch last season as it is on what has transpired so far in the spring. However, neither Taylor nor Miller has been declared a winner in the battle yet, so McClendon is still analyzing something. It will be interesting to see how he reaches his conclusion and when he reaches it.

2015 Non-Roster Invitee Rankings, Week 2

The early part of the spring wraps up with the first round of cuts, which should come any day now. So, some of these non-roster invitee point totals are about to become final, for better or worse.

A reminder of the point system:

• 1/3 point for each out (- for hitters, + for pitchers)
• 1 point for each walk (+ for hitters, - for pitchers)
• 1 point for each strikeout (- for hitters, + for pitchers)
• (batters only) 1 point for each total base, 1 point for each stolen base, 1 point subtracted for each caught stealing
• (pitchers only) 3 points subtracted for each home run allowed

Here are the rankings going into this weekend (total +/-, change in point total from last week)

1. Tyler Olson (19, +13)
2. Endy Chavez (13, 0)
3. Tyler Marlette (12.33, +3.33)
4. D.J. Peterson (11.83, -0.33)
5. John Baker (11.67, +2)
6. Jordy Lara (11.67, +6)
7. Jordan Pries (11, +5)
8. Mike Dowd (9.33, -0.67)
9. Rafael Perez (9.33, +2.33)
10. Stephen Landazuri (6.67, -0.33)
11. Patrick Kivlehan (6.5, -7)
12. Justin Germano (5.33, -2)
13. Steven Baron (5.17, -0.33)
14. Franklin Gutierrez (5.08, -0.67)
15. Mark Lowe (4.67, -1.33)
16. Shawn O'Malley (3.67, -0.33)
17. Carlos Rivero (3.33, +1.33)
18. Sam Gaviglio (1.67, -8.33)
19. Forrest Snow (-3, -3)
20. Joe Saunders (-7, -12)

Biggest Rise: Jordy Lara (up 10 spots)

Biggest Drop: Sam Gaviglio (down 14 spots)

The real takeaway from this list and these standings is that the Mariners have about as uninteresting a group of non-roster invitees as imaginable. Tyler Marlette is sitting in third place on the strength of some well-timed singles and stands to be among the first cuts whenever they come. Joe Saunders has been awful enough to lay to rest any suspicions he could grab a left-handed spot in the bullpen. Perhaps Tyler Olson gets himself in the mix with his phenomenal spring, but he profiles as rotation depth. In reality he's auditioning for a call-up midseason if/when injuries hit. He is the non-roster story of the spring to this point though - a true darkhorse, unlike more heralded prospects like D.J. Peterson and Patrick Kivlehan (who have also made solid accountings for themselves).

This list should naturally separate some more as players get cut and players on the bubble of making the roster get more playing time. The points system is designed to favor "compilers," which in other words means players that play more should be able to earn higher point totals.

2015 Non-Roster Invitee Rankings, Week 1

The Mariners have only played three spring training games so far, but that's plenty enough to overreact to the results! I will update the non-roster invitee rankings every Friday until spring training is over. Already there is quite a bit of movement.

First of all, here's how players earn and lose points:

• 1/3 point for each out (- for hitters, + for pitchers)
• 1 point for each walk (+ for hitters, - for pitchers)
• 1 point for each strikeout (- for hitters, + for pitchers)
• (batters only) 1 point for each total base, 1 point for each stolen base, 1 point subtracted for each caught stealing
• (pitchers only) 3 points subtracted for each home run allowed

After three whole games here are the updated standings (point total, change from last week):

1. Patrick Kivlehan (13.5, +9)
2. Endy Chavez (12.33, -0.67)
3. D.J. Peterson (12.17, +5.67)
4. Sam Gaviglio (10, +4)
5. Tyler Olson (10, +4)
6. Mike Dowd (10, +4)
7. Tyler Marlette (9, +2)
8. John Baker (8.33, -1.67)
9. Justin Germano (7.33 , +0.33)
10. Rafael Perez (7, -1)
11. Stephen Landazuri (7, 0)
12. Mark Lowe (6, -1)
13. Jorden Pries (6, 0)
14. Franklin Gutierrez (5.75, -1)
15. Steve Baron (5.5, 0)
16. Jordy Lara (5.33, -0.67)
17. Joe Saunders (5, -5)
18. Shawn O'Malley (4, 0)
19. Carlos Rivero (2, -3)
20. Forrest Snow (0, -5)

Biggest Rise: Patrick Kivlehan (up 18 slots)

Biggest Drop: Joe Saunders (down 15 slots)

Kivlehan's 3-run home run is easily the most exciting thing a non-roster invitee has done in the first three games of the spring. Already, even with the initial point spread, every player who gained points in the first three games find themselves in the top half of the standings. Maybe the most interesting thing is to see John Baker leapfrogged (at least for the time being) by some non-roster catchers who will clearly get cut as the pitching staff gets thinned. Ultimately that is probably good news for Jesus Sucre's chances at an opening day roster spot.

But really, this is a for-funsies ranking system three games into an exhibition system. If this is what three games can do, we can only imagine what a whole week of games will do.

2015 Non-Roster Position Players

The Mariners held their first full workout today, meaning everyone has arrived in Peoria. So, it's time to look at the rest of the non-roster invitees just like I did last week with pitchers and catchers. here's how the initial rankings are tallied:

• 1 point per year away from 28 years old, either way (so super young and super old players are equally intriguing, though for different reasons)
• 1 point per league level. MLB is worth 4 points, AAA 3 points, and so on
• 1 point for being a lefty arm
• 1 point if the player has some special circumstance that adds to their intrigue

Without further ado, the initial position player rankings!

1. Endy Chavez (+13): The aged wonder soldiers on, accumulating this massive rating based on the fact that he somehow was a regular for the M's last year and he is closer to 40 than 30. He seems to always rise to the MLB roster.
2. Franklin Gutierrez (+6.75): Guti was hard to rate since he didn't play at all last season. Ultimately I gave him credit for half of his 2013 level (split between AAA and MLB) and then added a bonus point given the intrigue of how he might come back from missing all of last season.
3. D.J. Peterson (+6.5): I think Peterson is the first basemen of the future when he's ready, which isn't yet, but hopefully not too far into the future.
4. Jordy Lara (+6): Lara put up a big year in high A. This next season is an interesting one for him, though he figures to be among the early spring cuts.
5. Carlos Rivero (+5): Likely AAA depth, particularly after Rickie Weeks was signed.
6. Patrick Kivlehan (+4.5): I've got a prospect crush on Kivlehan, so I disagree with my own ranking here. Still, the system is the system, and the fact is that Kivlehan is a bit old as a prospect and hasn't hit AAA yet. I'm still excited to see how he does in 2015 though and I hope he tears up the Cactus league.
7. Shawn O'Malley (+4): Definition of minor league depth. He will probably stick around camp a while but it's impossible to see him on the opening day roster without an apoplectic amount of injuries.

So, the rankings of all non-roster invitees is as follows:

1. Endy Chavez (+13)
2. Joe Saunders (+10)
3. John Baker (+10)
4. Rafael Perez (+8)
5. Mark Lowe (+7)
6. Tyler Marlette (+7)
7. Stephen Landazuri (+7)
8. Justin Germano (+7)
9. Franklin Gutierrez (+6.75)
10. D.J. Peterson (+6.5)
11. Jordan Pries (+6)
12. Tyler Olson (+6)
13. Jordy Lara (+6)
14. Sam Gaviglio (+6)
15. Mike Dowd (+6)
16. Steve Baron (+5.5)
17. Carlos Rivero (+5)
18. Forrest Snow (+5)
19. Patrick Kivlehan (+4.5)
20. Shawn O'Malley (+4)

Frankly, I am surprised at what this simple rating system churned out. The top four scores pretty clearly reside with the four players most likely to earn opening day roster spots (though I do not expect any of them to earn roster spots). All that really says is that the most seasoned veterans the Mariners invited to camp are not idiots. They picked a place where they can compete for a roster spot. I will check in again with an updated list after a few games have been played, and detail how the ranking system will update based on spring performances.

2015 Non-Roster Pitchers and Catchers

The Mariners report for spring training Friday morning, which is very soon! Or, if you check on the blogosphere in the morning, it is happening or has already happened! Either way, the words pitchers and catchers reporting ceremonially close out the winter and welcome in spring, at least in my head.

One of my favorite storylines in spring training every year are the non-roster invitees (NRIs). These are players not on the 40-man roster that participate in MLB spring training. They usually fall in two categories: 1) MLB veterans trying to catch back on and prolong their career 2) up-and-coming prospects. The dichotomy always makes the NRI list a study in contrasts, which is part of the fun. Most become distant footnotes in a hurry, but invariably a few surprise and even find their way to the majors.

I will look at the Mariners NRIs in two posts. Since pitchers and catchers report now, I will rate the pitchers and catcher now. Then, I will rate the batters when they show up. Together they will combine for weekly NRI power rankings based on their intrigue and, as they play, their performance. I will use a pretty simple +/- system which I will explain in more detail when games happen. For now, here's how the initial rankings are tallied:

• 1 point per year away from 28 years old, either way (so super young and super old players are equally intriguing, though for different reasons)
• 1 point per league level. MLB is worth 4 points, AAA 3 points, and so on
• 1 point for being a lefty arm
• 1 point if the player has some special circumstance that adds to their intrigue

Without further ado, the initial pitcher and catcher rankings!

UPDATE (2/22/2015, 12:22pm): The Mariners signed Joe Saunders to a minor league deal with a spring training invite yesterday. He ranks as a +10 in my ranking system and takes over the top spot on this list. You may remember him as a mediocre innings eater for the M's a few years back, and now he is in camp to compete for a bullpen spot.

1. John Baker (+10): This tells you all you need to know about how uninteresting the pitcher and catcher NRIs are. Baker was the Cubs backup catcher last year, and he's older. He's likely ticketed for AAA but has a chance to hang on as Mike Zunino's backup. That's easily enough for him to be the class of this list.
2. Rafael Perez (+8): Perez played in AAA last year, but gets a boost as a southpaw pitcher. He will likely get a long look as the second lefty in the M's bullpen, though the odds are he goes to Tacoma.
3. Mark Lowe (+7): Remember when Lowe came up with the Mariners as a flame-throwing righty? Those days are long gone, but the M's are giving him a chance to continue to show whatever he has got left - which probably is not a ton. Still, given his past as an M's prospect, I gave him an extra point for nostalgia's sake.
4. Tyler Marlette (+7): Marlette played in High Desert last year, and he is an underrated prospect. He has the potential to turn into a good hitting catcher. He won't make the majors this year but I hope he makes a little noise in the at-bats he gets before he is sent to minor league camp as the pitching staff is cut down. Marlette deserves more attention than he gets.
5. Stephen Landazuri (+7): Consider Landazuri a less heralded version of Brandon Maurer. He is a later round high school pick the M's got to sign and they have developed him into an arm that might make the majors. He has not earned the same kind of buzz Maurer developed, partly because he doesn't have the same kind of upside, but he isn't as far off as the lack of notoriety suggests. Landazuri could hang around camp longer than expected if he catches Lloyd McClendon's eye early on.
6. Justin Germano (+7): Germano is AAA depth and got this high of a rating largely by being a player in his early 30s willing to hang around.
7. Jordan Pries (+6): The Rainiers pitcher of the year is a very long shot to make the M's rotation out of spring training, but this is still an important spring for him. He could see the big leagues if he is, say, the sixth or seventh starter instead of the eighth or ninth.
8. Tyler Olson (+6): The former Gonzaga Bullog has progressed through the M's system fairly quickly. He is a "pitchability" lefty, meaning his stuff isn't amazing but he's got a good idea how to use what he's got. Olson, like Pries, will not make the Mariners out of spring training, but a good showing could help him push into the majors sooner rather than later.
9. Sam Gaviglio (+6): Gaviglio is new to the Mariners. He had a decent year in AA in 2014, and at 24 years old, isn't a hot prospect. Still, since Gaviglio is new to the organization and he will get a chance to play in big league camp for at least a few weeks, his pitching in the next fortnight or so could go a long ways towards his future in the organization.
10. Mike Dowd (+6): Dowd is a catcher in camp so that all the pitchers have someone to throw to. His OPS was below .600 in AA.
11. Steve Baron (+5.5): Although Baron is a former top pick, he's not much more than Dowd at this point. In fact, based on this rating system, he's a bit less, though I'm guessing the Mariners hold out more hope for Baron's upside.
12. Forrest Snow (+5): Forrest Snow is undoubtedly a great name, and by many accounts Snow is a tremendous person (I mean that; he frequently participates in Rainiers pre-game promos). However, he is also the definition of AAA depth, which doesn't make for a very compelling non-roster invitee.

The long, dreary wait is, for all intents and purposes, over. The next time this list gets updated it will be with results from GAMES. Exhibition games that do not count - but still, GAMES, as in scheduled competitions between two baseball teams that happen in the flesh in real life. Baseball is back.

Maurer a Mariner

This month promised to have lots of commitments outside of blogging, and it did not disappoint. Part of me hoped that the Mariners would make me feel better about this by silently waltzing through spring training in a bland, unassuming manner.

Early on the M's hitters were dinger-happy, and they are yet to stop. No Mariners team has hit more dingers in spring training than this one, for what it is worth.

Today the Mariners announced the juiciest news yet: Brandon Maurer made the starting rotation.

I haven't heard any of Maurer's starts on radio, or seen him pitch on TV (much less in person). I, like every blogger and most reporters, have no knowledge of all the work Maurer does behind the scenes too. I have no real good angle to provide insight on this decision - but I do have a blog about the Mariners, so there shall be an opinion.

Spring Dingers Almost Meaningless

If you are an optimist, the word "almost" probably jumped out at you in the title.

The Mariners have hit more home runs than any other team in spring training so far. The Mariners made a concerted effort to beef up their offense with some power hitters, so the early onslaught seems like a promising sign.

I decided to see if spring training dingers have translated into regular season dingers in recent history. Below are team home run totals in spring training vs. team home run totals in the regular season for the past four seasons, 2009-2012. I stopped in 2009 for no great reason; it gave me over 100 data points and was also the season Jack Zduriencik took over the Mariners.

Here's the data (click for larger image):

Correlation coefficient: 0.18

The data points look more or less like a random blob with perhaps a slight upward trend. The correlation coefficient confirmed what is obvious to our eyes - there is a slight positive correlation (suggesting teams that hit more home runs in spring do hit more home runs in the regular season), but it's impossible to stress slight too much. Barely any of the variation in regular season home runs is explained by spring training home runs in theory.

I got to thinking about the Mariners situation though. They go from playing in the warm, dry air of Arizona to the cool, damp confines of the Pacific Northwest. I wondered if park factors were obscuring a more noticeable trend in the data.

Spring 2011: Position Players

After taking a look at the catchers and pitchers vying for spots on the 2011 Mariners roster, it is time to take a look at the position players, given that they reported today. Once again, the handy-dandy Luis Ugueto intrigue scale will help us find players of interest. Here are the position players as I see them:

Spring 2011: Catchers and Pitchers

I haven't been able to write my usual YAY SPRING TRAINING IS HERE post, and since pitchers and catchers reported on Sunday, I think the time has passed for that. Instead, I offer this brief primer for all the players so far in camp, sorted into the different groups that I see.

Additionally, I offer an intrigue rating, using Luis Ugueto as the standard unit. Remember him? The Rule 5 guy on the 2002 M's that never did anything but pinch run here or there? The guy listed as a pinch runner on Baseball Reference? (not making that up)

Ain't over 'til it's over, and we haven't begun

Milton Bradley is getting ejected every other day. Cliff Lee got suspended, but it doesn't matter anyway with his abdominal strain. Doug Fister got drilled by a line drive. Jack Hannahan won't be ready for the start of the season. All Chone Figgins does is walk and boot more balls at second base than any of us are comfortable with. Jose Lopez isn't making anyone forget about Adrian Beltre at third base, either.

Where did all the optimism go?

It shouldn't be tempered as much as it is right now. There are all sorts of reasons to be excited for this team and its potential - or at least a whole bunch of reasons to not have a drastically different opinion after the past week or two of spring training.

First of all, the injuries are getting blown out of proportion. Jeff Sullivan over at Lookout Landing did an excellent job calming nerves about the Jack Hannahan situation. If Hannahan had pulled his groin in May, I'd be shocked if people reacted like they have right now. He is a utility infielder gone for a couple weeks, and he isn't the only utility infielder the M's have. Depth is as much about having guys you can limp along with when little things pop up as having guys as good as each other. This team can limp along with whoever takes Hannahan's spot.

Copy and paste that last paragraph for the Doug Fister's little injury, though I think in the end he will be ready anyway, and I'm not sure he makes the roster even if he is totally healthy.

Cliff Lee's abdomen is more troublesome. Not only is Lee a critical piece, but it wreaks of an injury that could linger. However, have we forgotten about the 2009 Angels already? Remember how they started the year without Kelvim Escobar or John Lackey, and everyone wondered who would step up in their rotation? Then, on top of that, Nick Adenhart DIED a couple weeks into the season? Kelvim Escobar never came back for the Angels, but John Lackey did, and at the end of the year the Angels were among the best teams in baseball.

Does an abdominal strain to the number two starter sound as bad as what the Angels faced last year? I know I am glossing over significant personnel differences, but the point is that nobody had the Angels pegged as a premier team coming out of spring training last year. People (including myself) looked at their injuries and said "no way," but yet there they were. There is freedom for things to happen when games are decided on the field, regardless of what might be expected.

Lastly, here and there I see some fretting over Griffey's lack of production in the spring, and the errors accumulating at second and third base. These worries could be prophetic. I'm not going to say they don't matter. However, if we are worried about spring performances, guys like Eric Byrnes and Casey Kotchman can't be conveniently ignored. Both look pretty darn good. Their performances have as much of a chance to be prophetic as anyone else's.

It is too easy to lose sight of the big picture in spring training. Production only becomes a story when it is connected to some pre-existing assumption. People already wondered if Griffey could produce, and already wondered if the Figgins/Lopez position switch would work too. Injuries are magnified because they upset the all-important opening day roster. From a player's perspective, I don't doubt that it's a big deal to break camp with the big league ballclub. From an organizational perspective though, injuries should be assumed. Losing a guy for a week or two is unfortunate, but it happens, and it's a week or two out of a six-month season whether it happens in early April or the middle of June.

A couple weeks ago, I thought this team had a chance to win the division, and a pitching staff with the potential to carry it on a deep postseason run. Nothing has happened since then to change this team's potential. We haven't learned much about this team in the past few weeks that we didn't know a couple months ago, Cliff Lee's abdominal pull notwithstanding. That's not enough for me to lose my optimism, especially with how young the season is. There is no good reason to think much of anything different yet.

The Sweeney Situation

Mike Sweeney refuses to cool down. He is still hitting almost .700, flashing extra-base power along the way. If intangibles matter at all, Sweeney beats anyone this side of Griffey. Sweeney's role on last year's team can't be ignored either. How could an established veteran, and core member of the clubhouse, bat .700 in the spring and not make the ballclub?

Here is how. The Mariners will carry 13 or 14 position players. Casey Kotchman, Jose Lopez, Jack Wilson, Chone Figgins, Milton Bradley, Franklin Gutierrez, Ichiro, Ken Griffey Jr, and a couple catchers are definitely on the team. That's 10 of the slots taken. At least one spare outfielder, and one spare infielder will be kept. That brings the total to 12 spots spoken for, none of which Mike Sweeney can fill.

Let's assume the spare outfielder is Eric Byrnes, and the spare infielder Jack Hannahan. That leaves Ryan Langerhans, Ryan Garko, Matt Tuiasosopo, and Mike Sweeney battling for one or two roster spots.

Tui can go down to AAA, and he might even benefit from a little more seasoning. So, let's take him out of the competition. The question becomes the pecking order between Langerhans, Garko, and Sweeney.

As far as defense goes, it's pretty easy to say that Langerhans is the best, Garko next best, and Sweeney the worst. Offensively, Sweeney and Garko are somewhat comparable, and Langerhans a step below both of them.

I'm glad I won't have to make the decision. It's going to be tough with how well Sweeney has performed, and what he does in the clubhouse. Players are professionals, but they are still people. I would be disappointed if I was a player and Sweeney didn't make the team, especially after a killer spring.

Is that enough to keep Sweeney though?

It might be if Eric Byrnes looks good enough to cover center field. Otherwise, Ryan Langerhans almost certainly takes a spot, and that might squeeze Sweeney out.

Cliff Lee's suspension situation is a significant deal too. The Mariners might be forced to start the season with 12 pitchers because of it, and the roster spot sacrificed might be the one Sweeney has a chance at.

One thing is for certain. Mike Sweeney has done everything he can to make the Mariners. I am interested to see how much he plays as the regulars get on the field more. It might be telling of what Wak is leaning towards doing.

I thought Mike Sweeney had no chance of making the Mariners, but he can't be ignored at this point.

Early Thoughts On Spring Training

It's about time I post something this month, but the problem is that there just isn't much to be said that isn't already being said by others. Spring training is fun, but it's hard to evaluate much of what going on when a) all you have are radio broadcasts b) players only get a few ABs, or 20-30 pitches, and c) in those few opportunities, many are trying to get rust off/work on something new.

So I don't write much about spring training, other than it's fun for what it is. Personally, I don't put too much stock in spring performances unless they are way too good or bad to ignore. So far, nobody has had time to be stellar, and only Garret Olson and Kenn Kasparek have had forgettable outings.

I've come up with a few thoughts to share though:

• I hope Chone Figgins stays at second, and Jose Lopez at third. Statistics and scouting both give good reasons to believe the move will work, and a few weeks into the experiment, both players seem to be acclimating fairly well.
• I wonder how long Dustin Ackley will stay in the major league camp. He is getting rave reviews much like Brandon Morrow did in his first spring training. That scares me a little, but there's absolutely no room for Ackley on the opening day roster. Personally, I would still send him down once minor league camp opens up. There are enough guys that need to get work in who figure to be a part of the 2010 Mariners, and Dustin will be best served getting a lion's share of time on the field, instead of a few innings here and there.
• Matt Tuiasosopo is off to a hot start, much like last spring training. Undoubtedly, that will increase interest in his chances to make the opening day roster. He projects as one of the final cuts anyway.
• Mike Sweeney is off to a hot start too. There is no spot for him on the roster, but if he continues to hit well, what do the Mariners do? The players are professionals, but Sweeney was such a big part of the team last year, and he has asserted himself in the clubhouse yet again. Add a strong spring, and his situation will be as delicate as an aging non-roster invitee's can be.
• I would like to see Ryan Garko get some time behind the plate. By all accounts, he only moved because Victor Martinez was ahead of him in the Indians organization. Garko becomes a much more valuable commodity if he can catch some.
• Respected M's reporter Shannon Drayer has said multiple times that Eric Byrnes "looks fast" out on the field. Coming off significant leg injuries, that is worth noting. I'm not convinced his legs caused all of his problems that past few seasons, but he at least has a chance to prove me wrong if his legs are indeed strong and healthy.

Those are some of my thoughts, in no particular order. I'm open to more, and may even post more of my own in the comments if something pops up. Most of all, it's nice to have some sort of baseball action to talk about again.

Spring Training Is Awesome

I love spring training, I really do. I wish it was maybe a week shorter, but not much shorter. If the season started out with no preparation, I may have a seizure from all the excitement, kind of like those crazy shows with all the super fast flashing lights. Thanks to spring training, I have pitchers and catchers reporting, then a week later everyone else reporting, and then the first spring training game, and a couple rounds of cuts...it's much healthier to spread the excitement enough to not hurt myself.

Plus, spring training by itself is really fun, especially with this new Mariners regime. Jack Hannahan and Ryan Garko both reported with the catchers. They've been catching bullpen sessions, meaning the M's will probably break camp with four players capable of going behind the plate and not making a fool of themselves. I especially love that Hannahan is doing bullpen sessions while there is still a plan to work him in at shortstop a bunch more.

There are the random moments that only happen in the spring too, like when 19-year-old first-rounder Steven Baron caught Felix Hernandez's bullpen session last week. He went from high school to King Felix. That wouldn't quite make my career, but those ten minutes would have made the whole trip to Peoria worth it for me.

On the first full day of workouts, the M's took the field with Jose Lopez at third base, and Chone Figgins at second. It caused a bit of a stir, considering all conventional logic would put Lopez at second and Figgins at third. There has been so much written already analyzing the switch (the post linked to has more links too),  so I won't go over it at all, other than to say it makes spring training even more awesome.

If you are keeping track at home, that's a starting second baseman practicing at third, a starting third baseman practicing at second, the backup third baseman catching bullpen sessions with plans to practice at shortstop, a regular first baseman getting back behind the plate for the first time since the minors, and a guy who just graduated from high school catching the Cy Young runner-up.

This is why I love spring training. You'll see things you won't see during the season. Usually that means different prospects taking the field for a few innings, and one of them doing something that speaks to their potential. I still remember a few years back, when I went down to San Francisco to watch a Mariners-Giants exhibition game. A 20-year-old Michael Saunders got an at-bat, and roped a pitch just foul down the right field line, that, after a bounce, splashed down in McCovey Cove. I'm still looking for another foul ball that makes me drool quite like that one.

There is also room to experiment in spring training with more established players though, and I wish more teams did it. This is the only time players will get to play in real, live games that don't matter. There is ample room for things to fail spectacularly without repercussions. Pitchers should try new pitches, hitters new stances, fielders new positions. Statistically speaking, the sample sizes are too small to get any meaningful data anyway. It's practice and experience with no real pressure to perform, and the naked eye is the only way to possibly glean meaningful insights.

I remember when Randy Johnson worked on a different fastball in spring training during his time with the Diamondbacks. His spring numbers were horrific, and some people wondered if it would carry into the season. It did, but not in the way people implied. Johnson took a beating in the spring, but in the process learned a new pitch. He went out and got a Cy Young with his new weapon.

Most players (and teams) don't take a very experimental approach in spring training. Mixing up the batting order is about as far as many go. Not the Mariners though, and it's not surprising coming from this organization. What other team would take their top prospect and move him from center field to second base just to do it?

Spring training's meaningless games will eventually get to me, and I'll want the regular season to get here. I'm not even close to that point yet though. Spring training has a charm special to itself, and following the Mariners, it's going to be even more charming. They are treating it almost like little league, and I love it.

You know, while the M's are at it, they should let Ichiro pitch! They should take that old-school Griffey cloning ad and make it more of a reality too! Why not let King Felix work on his stroke a little more as well? We know he has some pop. For all we know, he could provide some right-handed thunder off the bench!

Okay, if there was any doubt that Don Wakamatsu runs a better spring training than I would, it should be gone now. There are experiments more likely to yield results than others, and thankfully he has an eye for those. I love the approach though. What's the harm in trying something different? It can only help the team, and it definitely makes spring training that much more lovable.

Draft 2008: Day Two Picks of Interest

Realistically, most of the Major League players out of this draft class have already been drafted. However, there is still some talent to be found, and perhaps even some great talent (Matt Holliday was 7th round selection, and Albert Pujols a 13th). Here are some noteworthy picks from day two:

7TH ROUND

• Paul Gran, a third baseman from Washington State, was picked by the Marlins
• Jordan Danks, an outfielder from Texas, was selected by the White Sox. He was in consideration for watch list. He does a little bit of everything and may have some power potential, thanks to his 6'5" frame.
• Eric Thames, #19 on my watch list, was selected by the Blue Jays
• Cleveland selected OF Tim Fedroff, a draft-eligible sophomore. He has been a real good hitter in college, and I was not completely sure if he was draft eligible. He got consideration for my watch list.

8TH ROUND

• The Rangers selected Mike Bianucci, and outfielder from Auburn. At first glance, he did not jump out at me, but with a closer look he nearly made my watch list. Bianucci showed the ability to hit for average with some power and speed in college, and it translated into success in the Cape Cod League as well.
• The Tigers took Andy Dirks, an outfielder from Wichita State. He has good speed and plate discipline, and has played for a winning program. He does not have star potential, but I have an easy time seeing him as a quality fourth outfielder.
• The Diamondbacks selected Pat McAnaney, a left-hander from Virginia. McAnaney was productive his whole career at Virginia, though he never really was the staff ace thanks to Jacob Thompson. Still, I am surprised a lefty as productive as he was in the ACC lasted this long.

9TH ROUND

• Matt Hague, an outfielder from Oklahoma State (and formerly the UW), was picked by the Pirates
• Nick Haughian, a lefty from Washington, was picked only two slots after Hague by the Orioles.
• LHP Dan Jennings, a University of Nebraska product, was selected by the Marlins. Jennings does not have overpowering stuff, but I still thought he was one of the better lefties available in this rather weak college crop of starting pitchers.
• The Tigers picked Anthony Shawler, a righty from Old Dominion that has posted big strikeout numbers the last couple years in their starting rotation. He had a sub-par junior year, and it would not surprise me if he decided to go back for his senior season and see if he could improve his draft stock.
• The Padres selected RHP Kyle Thebeau from Texas A&M. Though I did not put him on my watch list, I liked him. His WHIP and BAA were rather pedestrian, but he only gave up 2 home runs in nearly 70 innings pitched this season, and he struck out a ton of batters. San Diego got great value here.

10TH ROUND

• The Nationals selected LHP Tom Milone from USC. He had not done much until this year, where he had a fantastic showing in the Cape Cod League and followed it with a pretty good season in the Pac-10. He is a candidate to return to school, because another year like this one would likely improve his draft status.
• The Yankees took D.J. Mitchell out of Clemson. According to scouting reports, Mitchell does not have tremendous stuff, but he competes well on the mound. Statistically, he was among the best in the Cape Cod League and the ACC this past season. Even without the world's greatest stuff, I am a little surprised that he lasted this long.
  
• The Indians picked Donnie Webb, an outfielder from Oklahoma State. Webb had one of the best seasons of any college player in the nation, but this was his first year in Division I after two years in community college. It makes him a bit of a wild card. The lack of a track record is all that kept him off of my watch list, so he could certainly be the real deal.
  

11TH ROUND

• Jacob Priday, a senior outfielder from Missouri, was picked by the Astros. If he were a year younger, he may have been on my watch list. Still, he has a long track record of success and fairly steady progression at Missouri. I like what he has to offer, especially at this stage in the draft.
• Faithful followers of my blog may remember Dominic de la Osa from last year's watch list. He returned for his senior season at Vanderbilt and it turned out to be a little disappointing. It ultimately hurt his draft stock, as he went in the 10th round last year to the Tigers, and now is an 11th round choice by the Twins. He has good power, but I wonder if he can hit with a wooden bat after a very poor showing in the Cape Cod League, and a senior season in which he posted a rather high strikeout total.
  

12TH ROUND

• The Mariners selected Kenn Kasparek, a pitcher from the University of Texas. He missed all of last year with an elbow injury, but he is tall and has been rather productive on the mound. I like his potential, and I thought he had the look of an M's pitching prospect. In my opinion, he is the third best player the M's have drafted so far, only behind their top two picks. That says something about the value of Kasparek, and the value of the other players the M's have been picking.
• Matt Clark, a first baseman from LSU, was picked by the Padres. He hit well in the Cape Cod League and then had a really good junior season that ended with him being nominated one of the 50 finalists for the Golden Spikes award. Once Allan Dykstra went off the board (ironically to the Padres), this was the first baseman I hoped that the M's would take. Even though I like the Kasparek pick, I would have preferred Clark.
  

13TH ROUND

• The Nationals selected Blake Stouffer, an infielder from Texas A&M. He was in the mix for a spot on last year's watch list.
• The Brewers picked Rob Wooten, a reliever from North Carolina. I think this a steal for Milwaukee this late. Wooten was only a closer this year thanks to Andrew Carignan, who is now in the A's farm system and looking really good. Still, Wooten has pitched at a high level his whole college career and he had an outstanding summer in the Cape Cod League. Since he is a senior he is a bit older, but he was still one of the last players left off of my watch list. In fact, if the M's were not so desperate for a first baseman, I may have put him on over Nate Frieman. This guy definitely has Major League potential, and I am really surprised that he lasted this long.
  
• The Yankees took Florida State outfielder Jack Rye. He is a senior who has consistently produced at a high level his whole college career. Nothing stands out about him, but the whole package he offers is a great value at this point in the draft.

14TH ROUND

• Jordan Merry, a UW pitcher, was picked by the White Sox. I thought Merry was the best pro prospect on the Huskies staff, and one of the better ones in the Pac-10 this year.
• Michael Schwimer, #20 on my watch list, finally is selected! He goes to the Phillies.

16TH ROUND

• UW outfielder Mike Conley was selected by the Dodgers. I thought Conley was the best prospect on Huskies this year, but I figured he would not go very high. Considering his a left-handed outfielder with a little pop, I thought he would have been a great second day pick for the Mariners.
• Ryan Keedy, a senior first baseman from UAB, goes to the Cubs. I wasn't super high on him, but he was one of the better first baseman still available.
  
• The Yankees took another first baseman the Mariners would have been wise to draft, Luke Anders. Luke has been awfully good in the Big 12 the last couple years, and he has flashed some good power.

17TH ROUND

• The Phillies selected Jim Murphy, a first baseman from WSU.

20TH ROUND

• The Yankees selected perhaps the most interesting prospect of all this year, Pat Venditte. He is a senior from Creighton that switch-pitches! He really is two pitchers in one. He has two separate wind-ups (he is more overhand from the right side, sidearm from the left side), and even features different pitches with the different arms. His numbers were quite solid at Creighton too, so he is more than a gimmick. They were good enough to earn a selection as on of the 50 finalists for the Golden Spikes award. It appears that Venditte was announced as a right-handed pitcher, but I am sure the Yankees will have him pitch with both hands and see what happens. I am really rooting for this guy to make the majors, even though he is Yankee property now.
  

22ND ROUND

• The Reds took Byron Wiley, an outfielder from Kansas State. I was fairly high on Wiley coming into this season, based on his track record of progression and success. However, he was horrible this season. Wiley certainly should go back to college for his senior season and try to rebound and raise his draft status.
  
• The A's selected Preston Guilmet, a righty from Arizona. He was the Pac-10 pitcher of the year in 2007 as a sophomore, but regressed quite a bit this year. I do not think he is as good as his sophomore numbers suggest, but there is still no way he should have lasted this long in the draft. He would likely benefit from going back to college for his senior season.

25TH ROUND

• Daniel Edwards, a solid reliever for Kansas State the last couple years, was selected by the Phillies. I have been following him for a couple of years now, and I think he should have gone much earlier today. Edwards posted a sub-1.00 WHIP with good strikeout and home run rates in the Big 12 this year.
  

27TH ROUND

• The Marlins selected RHP Elih Villanueva from Florida State. He had a big year for the Seminoles, but did not get much publicity, partly because he was a junior college transfer. He first got noticed by Florida State thanks to an impressive showing in the Cape Cod League a few years ago. I think he has some talent, and I certainly would have taken a chance on him many rounds before this.

28TH ROUND

• Nate Freiman is a Texas Ranger! Everyone on my list has finally been drafted. This is the longest it has ever taken. I figured it would take Freiman and Schwimer the longest to get drafted, but I am surprised Freiman lasted this long. The height is a concern, but his short stroke counteracts the problem, and he produced in the ACC and Cape Cod League! I sifted through just about every first baseman that I found interesting, figuring the Mariners would have to pick one of them, and they did not. Unbelievable.

30TH ROUND

• The Atlanta Braves picked an outfielder out of Georgia Southern named Chris Shehan. He was named one of the 50 finalists for the Golden Spikes award, and deservedly so with over 20 home runs, 20 stolen bases, a batting average north of .400, and an on-base percentage north of .500. He had an epic season, and he was on my watch list until I looked at his strikeout total, which was also surprisingly epic for his high batting average. Still, that kind of production cannot be ignored.

42ND ROUND

• Cole White, an outfielder for the Army, was picked by the Pirates. I first noticed White last year, and I gave him legitimate consideration for my watch list each of the past two years. His numbers are quite good, but become more remarkable when it is considered that he plays in the CAA, which is the most pitcher-friendly conference in Division I baseball, and also an underrated baseball conference in general. I was starting to wonder if he would get drafted, and I am pleased that he did. He probably will not hit for much power, but I will follow his professional career. Hopefully he gives baseball a chance.
  

The 2008 Draft is complete. Speculation and projection is over for now, and it is time to see these players play in some professional games. Most think this draft does not have a ton of star power, and it may not. But, judging by how late some players I really liked went, there may be a large share of players who make noise from later rounds. It looks like this draft was rather deep with solid talent, which helped make it a little more unpredictable than many. As always, time will write the story of this draft, no matter how hard anyone else tries to.

Spring Training Games Underway

I do not think a player can be properly evaluated in two games, and I also believe spring training statistics tend to be given too much consideration in decision-making. However, a player that performs remarkably well cannot help but grab the eye of a coaching staff, and it does make cutting them a little more difficult. Just two games into the spring training "season," the Mariners already have a couple of interesting players standing out:

• Mike Morse, INF/OF, (69/75) - Signing Miguel Cairo (70/68) practically spelled the end of Morse's career in Seattle (which I am not thrilled about). However, Mike is off to a rapid start in the Cactus League, and if he keeps it up, he may just stick around. The odds are still stacked against him, but I think the M's will have a hard time cutting him loose on waivers for nothing if he has a killer spring.
• Wladimir Balentien, OF, (70/81) - John McLaren has already anointed Brad Wilkerson (69/68) the starter in right field, and though he is off to a nice start, Balentien must have turned some heads with his multi-homer game. I was hoping for at least an open competition between Balentien and Wilkerson for the job, and so maybe it will become a competition if Wlad impales the ball for the better part of March.

Realistically, individual performances do not matter much in spring training, and considering that McLaren has already named virtually the entire opening day roster, he seems to not put much in spring training performances either. However, McLaren has laid out a number of goals for the team this year, and those changes should show up in spring training numbers:

• For pitchers, their has been a tremendous emphasis on pitching inside. So far, M's pitchers have hit three batters this spring, and I would expect to see many more hit batters if the coaching staff continues to drive it home to every member of the staff. I am sure nobody on the coaching staff is telling M's pitchers to hit batters, but I doubt they frowned when to Padres were plunked on Sunday.
• On the basepaths, McLaren wants to be much more aggressive, and has gone as far as saying he thinks that Ichiro can steal 80 bases, and Yuniesky Betancourt 40. I am not sure which prediction is more ridiculous, but on Saturday the M's stole four bases as a team, and on Friday Brian LaHair inexplicable tried to steal second and was thrown out by a mile. If the Mariners do not run wild in spring training, they certainly will not in the regular season, so this bears watching.
• Jeff Pentland has stated that he is working with M's hitters on being more selective at the plate in hopes of working pitchers more, and getting a few better pitches to hit. In theory, this should lead to more walks and higher pitch counts. In the first couple games the hitters have been drawing some walks, though that could be a product of wild pitchers as much as disciplined pitch selection at this point. Once again, if hitters are not going to take pitches when statistics do not matter, the odds of them taking more pitches when games count is extremely slim.

It is really hard to find any sort of intrigue this spring training because McLaren has made so many decisions already. I do not think that is necessarily a bad thing, especially looking at this year's team, but it does take some of the wind out of Spring Training's sails. There still are a few things to look at, but ultimately it is just nice to hear the sweet sounds of baseball again.

Mariners Announce Spring Invitees

Yesterday the Mariners announced that they had invited 18 players not on the 40-man roster to spring training. For any of these players to make the team a player would have to be dropped from the 40-man roster and thus potentially lost to another team for nothing, so it stacks the odds against any of them. However, just last year P Brandon Morrow (75/81), P Arthur Rhodes (76/72), and C Jamie Burke (69/70) were in these players' shoes and made the opening day roster.

Every year three types of players are on this list: prized prospects that will not make the ballclub, but that the team wants to introduce to the major league environment, prospects the front office wants to take a closer look at, and veterans of either the majors or minors who could make it on the opening day squad, but more than likely are ticketed for AAA as needed organizational depth. Though prospects tend to get the headlines, I enjoy looking at the veterans because they have the best chance to make the team, and also because it showcases what I believe is Bavasi's greatest talent - finding players cast away by other teams that probably should not have been set free. He drives much nuts as a GM much of the time, but I admire his exceptional ability to find quality role players for cheap. Here is this year's list of spring training invitees:

P Phillipe Aumont (-/-) - Aumont definitely falls into the category of prized prospect with no chance to make the team. He will likely be compared to Morrow at some point, especially if he looks good in his first couple appearances, but he is much younger and even more inexperienced than Morrow was at this point last year. That being said, I am eager to get a chance to see how he does.

P Phillip Barzilla (59/63) - Barzilla is a 28-year-old lefty that had been in the Astros organization his whole career until now. He has major league experience, though only one-third of an inning's worth. I do not think he is much, but he was switched to the bullpen mid-season last year and posted a sub-1.00 ERA. I am guessing that is what prompted the Mariners to extend him an invite.

P Roy Corcoran (65/70) - Corcoran got cups of coffee in the majors in three different seasons with the Expos/Nationals, but spent all of last year in AAA at Albequerque, Florida's affiliate. He is a classic example of the kind of player Bavasi is great at finding. Corcoran is not a guy I would like to see working the late innings, but he is good enough to be a middle reliever on many ballclubs.

P Brodie Downs (56/66) - Downs is somewhere between "unique" and "intriguing." At 28 years old and a former 23rd round draftee, he does not seem to be exactly a prospect. However, he was drafted just last June, making him the only player besides Aumont invited to camp from the most recent draft class. His rating is the reflection of only 25.1 innings worth of work last season, so I do not know how well it reflects his actual ability. He is worth keeping an eye on.

P Stephen Kahn (50/68) - Kahn missed all of last season thanks to reconstructive knee surgery, so his rating is based on his 2006 numbers. A reliever, Kahn struck better than a batter per inning and kept his home run rate low, but also walked a bunch of batters and gave up a fair number of hits too. Much like Downs, he is a prospect the Mariners want to take a closer look at, but is quite unlikely to make the team.

P Kameron Mickolio (65/76) - I really like this guy, and so do the Mariners. He was drafted in the 18th round in 2006, but logged ample time in AAA last year and excelled. At 6'9" he is an imposing presence on the mound and has a bright future. Of all the prospects on this list, I think Mickolio has the best chance to make the team.

P Chris Reitsma (50/50) - Reitsma has really fallen off the table the last couple season, thanks in large part to injuries. If he has truly healed he may have some gas left in the tank and make a run at a spot in the bullpen. I think his chances are slim, but the real question is how much allegiance John McLaren has to him. If McLaren wants Reitsma on the roster, he will get every opportunity to make it.

P Arthur Rhodes (72/68) - Wisdom says that a pitcher in his late 30s coming off of major elbow surgery that made him miss all of last season would have almost no chance of making the team. However, this is Arthur Rhodes, and he is an exception for two reasons. First and foremost, McLaren remembers how dominant Rhodes was for the M's back in his prime, and without a doubt he would like to add Rhodes to the bullpen. However, beyond that, the numbers indicate that if he has recovered from the elbow surgery, he still has something to offer. Of all the veterans invited to camp, Rhodes has by far the best chance to stick.

P Robert Rohrbaugh (65/75) - Rohrbaugh has torn through the minors the past couple years rather quietly, only garnering attention the second half of last year when he was promoted to Tacoma and ultimately was named the Rainiers Pitcher of the Year. He was one of my darkhorses for the fifth starter spot until the M's signed Carlos Silva (75/74), but even without a spot to compete for on the roster, he will probably survive several cuts in spring training.

P Chris Tillman (46/78) - Many people are high on this former prep star, including the Mariners. They are treating him like a big-time prospect by inviting him to camp this year, though I think he is ultimately going to start the year in AA. I am not as sold on him as most, though I like his potential and do think he could take a big stride forward in 2008.

P Jake Woods (51/57) - He was a quality middle reliever in 2006, but struggled mightily in 2007. If he is sticking in the M's organization past March, he will be in Tacoma.

C Jair Fernandez (42/71) - Jair got invited most likely because the Mariners needed more catcher to handle all the pitchers. He is only 20 years old, but did not log even 200 at-bats in low A Wisconsin last year. He will likely be cut once enough pitchers are cut.

C Adam Moore (52/71) - Moore also gets an invite because of a need for catchers, but he may very well have received an invite regardless. He opened many eyes with an impressive season at Inland Empire, though it should be noted he was a bit old for the league at 23. He should open up the season in AA, and if he duplicates his performance last year he will become an even more interesting prospect.

C Brant Ust (56/61) - Much like Fernandez, Ust is here just for the pitchers. He is a 28-year-old utility player who did not even play much catcher last year in Tacoma. Still, it is a nice gesture by the team to give this career minor-leaguer a chance to play in a major league camp, even if it ends up being for only a few weeks.

2B Tug Hulett (66/72) - Hulett is a new-comer to the organization acquired in the Ben Broussard (73/72) trade. Hulett is not a star in the making, but he would be a good bench player. I would not be surprised if he hung around until one of the final cuts.

3B Mark Kiger (63/74) - Though Kriger has never appeared in a regular season MLB game, he has appeared in the playoffs with the A's in 2006! In fact, according to the Elias Sports Bureau, Kiger is the only player in major league history to make his major league debut in the playoffs. Last year he was in the Mets organization, where he spent most of his time in AA. He posted great numbers, though at 27 years of age he was rather old for the league. Kiger has played mostly third in his career, though he has played some at all infield spots. Kiger is another example of a quality role player that Bavasi has a knack for finding. He likely will not make the M's, but he should provide depth down in Tacoma.

3B Matt Tuiasosopo (51/70) - Tui has been invited several times to major league camp now, and it would still be stunning if he made the team. With that being said, I expect the team to give him a longer look this spring training, because I think he will ultimately start the year in Tacoma.

OF Bronson Sardinha (62/68) - Sardinha is a former first-round pick of the New York Yankees, and finally made the majors last year as a September call-up, appearing in only 10 games. His numbers were disappointing in AAA last year, but his combination of power and speed is intriguing, and at 24 years old he certainly could bounce back. Bronson is this year's version of OF Charlton Jimerson (59/69), except a little younger and a little better.

M's Roster Taking Shape

Today the Mariners announced that they had re-assigned one player to minor league camp (RHP Aaron Small), and sent four others to AAA Tacoma (RHP Sean Green, LHP Eric O'Flaherty, C Rene Rivera, OF Jeremy Reed). Though the Mariners had made several cuts before today's round, no one was cut before today that was thought to have a shot at making the ballclub. Especially with the four optioned to AAA out of the picture, the opening day roster has begun to take shape. As of now, the Mariners have 33 players in camp and must be down to 25 in a matter of days. Here is who is still left (* = a player not on the 40-man roster):


POSITION PLAYERS
Kenji Johjima (C)
Jamie Burke (C)*
Richie Sexson (1B)
Ben Broussard (1B/LF/RF)
Jose Lopez (2B)
Jose Vidro (2B/DH)
Yuniesky Betancourt (SS)
Gookie Dawkins (SS/3B)*
Rey Ordonez (SS)*
Adrian Beltre (3B)
Raul Ibanez (LF)
Ichiro (CF)
Adam Jones (CF)
Jose Guillen (RF)
Willie Bloomquist (IF/OF)
Mike Morse (IF/OF)


PITCHING STAFF
Felix Hernandez (RHP)
Jarrod Washburn (LHP)
Miguel Batista (RHP)
Horacio Ramirez (LHP)
Jeff Weaver (RHP)
Cesar Jimenez (LHP)
Arthur Rhodes (LHP)*
George Sherrill (LHP)
Jake Woods (LHP)
Jon Huber (RHP)
Justin Lehr (RHP)*
Mark Lowe (RHP)
Julio Mateo (RHP)
Brandon Morrow (RHP)*
J.J. Putz (RHP)
Chris Reitsma (RHP)
Sean White (RHP)


With Rene Rivera being sent down today the Mariners have only two catchers remaining in camp, which means Kenji Johjima (of course) and more surprisingly Jamie Burke will be on the ballclub by process of elimination. Sexson, Lopez, Betancourt, Beltre, Vidro, Ibanez, Ichiro, and Guillen are all locked in as starters on the club, and Willie Bloomquist was a shoo-in as a reserve at the start of the spring, but he has removed any doubt with his performance as well. So, that is a total of 11 position players with spot on the squad, and since it looks like the M's are going to carry 12 pitchers, 2 vacant reserve positions remain. Since the Mariners would probably like one of these guys to bat left-handed, Ben Broussard has likely made the ballclub because he is the only left-handed hitter among those that are not already on the ballclub. Between him and Willie Bloomquist, the Mariners have all the defensive positions covered, so they have the luxury of selecting the best player out of the pool remaining. If I were them, I would go with Mike Morse because he has the best bat of everyone left, the most versatility of anyone left, and he also is already on the 40-man roster.


Now on to the pitching staff. Hernandez, Washburn, Batista, Ramirez, and Weaver are the starting five for sure. However, the bullpen is very much up for grabs. Jake Woods figures to return to the long-relief role he filled so well last year, Chris Reitsma will be the set-up man, and Dudley-favorite Julio Mateo is sure to pitch in some crucial inning when better options are available (though I should say Mateo has looked good this spring, and I anticipate a good year from him). J.J. Putz would be a lock to make the team as well, but the Mariners may opt to put him on the DL to start the year if he is hurt bad enough. I think they won't though, so I will lightly pencil him in on the opening day roster. So, 9 of the 12 pitching spots are taken, leaving 3 to be decided between 8 hurlers. Mark Lowe can be eliminated because he is still hurt, so really there are only seven competing. Arthur Rhodes and George Sherrill should be on the club, because Hargrove really wants three lefties, especially since one (Woods) fills the long-relief role. That leaves only one position up for grabs among Jon Huber, Justin Lehr, Brandon Morrow, and Sean White. Of this quartet, Lehr has probably been the most unimpressive (though Huber is right there with him), and he is also a non-roster invitee. So, his chances of making the Mariners are slim to none.


That leaves Huber, Morrow, and White. Huber was impressive in his September call-up last year, but he has been roughed up a couple times this spring. Brandon Morrow has been dominant, and he's got the best stuff of this trio. However, he has virtually no professional experience and he's also not on the 40-man roster. As for Sean White, he has also looked good this spring and if the Mariners don't keep him they will have to return him to the Braves, since he was a Rule 5 draft pick. The last bullpen spot is easily the toughest decision the Mariners have to make, but if I were making the call I would go with Sean White, because he and Huber are relative equal in my eyes but Huber can be sent down; and also because I would prefer to see Brandon Morrow develop as a starter in the minors (plus adding Morrow would kick another guy off the 40-man roster).


So, here is who I think the 2007 Mariners will be:


STARTING LINEUP
Kenji Johjima, C
Richie Sexson, 1B
Jose Lopez, 2B
Yuniesky Betancourt, SS
Adrian Beltre, 3B
Raul Ibanez, LF
Ichiro, CF
Jose Guillen, RF
Jose Vidro, DH


BENCH
Willie Bloomquist
Ben Broussard
Mike Morse
Jamie Burke


STARTING ROTATION
Felix Hernandez
Jarrod Washburn
Miguel Batista
Horacio Ramirez
Jeff Weaver


BULLPEN
Jake Woods, Long Relief
Sean White, Long Relief
Julio Mateo, Middle Relief
George Sherrill, Specialty Lefty
Arthur Rhodes, Left-Handed Set-Up
Chris Reitsma, Right-Handed/Primary Set-Up
J.J. Putz, Closer


In this scenario, two non-roster invitees make the squad, so two players must be removed from the 4o-man roster. To open up one spot I would put Mark Lowe on the 60-day DL, and for the last one I would designate Sean Green for assignment. If J.J. Putz starts the year on the DL, I would call up Jon Huber, but my feeling is that the Mariners will choose Morrow instead. If Morrow is added to the roster, my guess is Travis Blackley is designated for assignment. I've often criticize Bavasi and Dudley for how they have handled the roster, but so far I like what I see. I'm scared they are going to kill Morrow's future (though I think he would be a solid reliever), but I'm even more scared they are going to keep either Rey Ordonez or Gookie Dawkins around. The M's are due for a brain freeze at some point this spring.

M's Spring Roundup - March 3

With spring training games and the inaugural World Baseball Classic starting up this week, baseball has returned with fervor! Only two games into the exhibition season there is little noteworthy to talk about, but a few interesting Mariner notes have popped up nonetheless:

• Felix Hernandez struck out the side on only 13 pitches to kick off the Mariners 2006 season! The hitters were Dave Roberts, Mike Cameron, and Brian Giles, most likely the first three hitters the Padres will field to start the season. It’s ludicrous to decide how good of a season a pitcher will have based on only 13 pitches, but it was still a great omen to see King Felix already in mid-season form. He isn’t just the Mariners best pitcher in the future, he’s their best pitcher right now.


• It will be interesting to keep tabs on Seattle’s team hitting statistics for the spring. There is a weak correlation between spring statistics and regular season statistics for individual players, but team statistics seem to be a little different story. The last few springs Seattle generated very little power and that has correlated to little production in the regular season. They didn’t have a home run in their first game this spring, but Ibanez did crack an opposite field solo home run today against the Cubs.


• Another team offensive stat to watch will be the K/BB ratio. Very few good offenses strike out a lot more than they walk. Against the Padres, Seattle struck out 12 times and only walked once. Against the Cubs they were much better, striking out five times while walking six.


• There are many pitchers worth watching in Mariners camp this year and a couple have already appeared in games. Perhaps the most intriguing is Matt Thornton, a southpaw that can rush it up to the plate in the upper 90s but doesn’t know where it’s going. New Mariners pitching coach Rafael Chaves has had Thornton make many changes, most noticeably moving to the other side of the pitching rubber, in hopes of improving his command. Results so far are promising, as Thornton didn’t walk a batter in his first appearance against the Padres.

Here’s some players to look out for Saturday's game against San Diego:

• Jesse Foppert: Foppert will start tomorrow and probably only work a few innings, but he’s in a very interesting position. Acquired in the Randy Winn deadline deal last year, Foppert was one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball before blowing out his arm a couple years ago. He has completely recovered and his stuff is coming back, most notably a big-time fastball that he consistently throws in the mid-90s. The Mariners starting five looks set, but if Foppert really impresses this spring, he may be able to bump Gil Meche and make the opening day roster.


• Clint Nageotte: Like Thornton a pitcher with control problems, Nageotte really started to find the strike zone by the end of last year, especially in the Arizona fall league where he was lights out. If he can build on his spectacular fall league showing, he will make the bullpen and open a ton of eyes in the process. The M’s bullpen looks very strong, and it will be one of the best in baseball if guys like Nageotte and Matt Thornton learn how to harness their stuff.


• Emiliano Fruto: Just 21 years old, Fruto has a fastball clocked around 97 MPH and a change-up and curve that have both been rated among the best in the organization. He played in AA last year and put up good, though not great, numbers because he doesn’t have great command of his pitches yet. Once he learns how to consistently throw at least two of his pitches for strikes, he will be able to dominate on any level, including the major leagues.


• There is an open battle for second base right now between Jose Lopez, Willie Bloomquist, and non-roster invitee Fernando Vina. Due to a minor injury, Vina has not played in a spring training game yet but he should be back soon. The job may be Vina’s to take because AAA ball probably would be best for Lopez right now and Mike Hargrove seems to love the idea of Willie Bloomquist being a super sub.


• Greg Dobbs has gotten off to a hot start and if he keeps it up, he may force himself on to the opening day roster. It’s what he did last year but he faces longer odds this spring as a non-roster invitee. Still, he should get plenty of playing time since Adrian Beltre is participating in the World Baseball Classic.

HOME