Old But Good

It seems that the predominant overnight reaction to the Russell Branyan deal is "Why?" It does not make sense for a team out of a pennant chase to give up younger players for an older one.

There are exceptions though, and we do not have to look very far to find one.

Back in August of 2006, the Mariners traded Jamie Moyer to the Phillies for Andrew Baldwin and Andrew Barb. At the time, the Mariners were clearly out of the race, Moyer was on the wrong side of 40 years old, and Baldwin and Barb were in low levels of the minor leagues. This was a classic trade deadline kind of deal. Presumably, the Phillies were mortgaging small pieces of their future to bolster their 2006 team.

Fast forward to today. Moyer is still with the Phillies, and has been worth roughly 6 WAR for them over his tenure (I am guessing some on how much WAR he provided in 2006 for them, because I can only find his WAR for that entire season). He is now crowding 50, but is still a serviceable pitcher.

Andrew Barb got cut by the Mariners years ago. He never made it out of the low levels of the minors. Andrew Baldwin is in Tacoma for his third season, where he has posted mediocre numbers at best. He is now 27 years old, and is yet to make a major league appearance, or even get on the 40-man roster for that matter.

Oh, and furthermore, the hole left by Moyer in the M's rotation was filled by signing Miguel Batista as a free agent.

Again, the whole point of trading Moyer back then was to gain pieces for the future. However, long-term, Moyer has proven to be significantly better. With the advantage of hindsight, it is easy to see that the Mariners would have been in better shape for the foreseeable future if they had kept around the 40-something southpaw.

I bring this up now because of the Russell Branyan deal. Juan Diaz is totally cut out of the Barb/Baldwin cloth. Ezequiel Carrera is better, but not by leaps and bounds. The trade the Mariners made last night to get Branyan back is constructed similarly to the Moyer deal years ago, except this time around the Mariners are the ones acquiring the veteran.

Now, I just admitted that the M's gave up more in this deal than they acquired with Moyer. Furthermore, Moyer has stayed a serviceable pitcher much longer than I think anyone envisioned. The overwhelming odds are that Branyan does not provide the same kind of production for the Mariners that Moyer has given to the Phillies, and I also think it is likely that Carrera and Diaz provide more value to the Indians than Barb and Baldwin have given the Mariners.

Still, nobody doubts that the Mariners are a better team today than they were yesterday. Sometimes, good players stay good for a little while longer. Often, marginal prospects do not pan out. Branyan could end up impacting the Mariners long term as much as the prospects they gave up could have. We will not have that answer for several years, but the precedent is there.

Rule 5 Draft Preview

There are literally hundreds of players eligible to be picked in the Rule 5 Draft. I would have to manually compile the list, and I do have enough of life outside of musing about the Mariners to keep me from doing that.

Instead, I will offer a couple modest lists. First of all, college players from the 2006 draft not on a team's 40-man roster are eligible this year. That was the first year I compiled a watchlist. Here are the players from my 2006 list available in this year's Rule 5 draft:

• Whit Robbins, 1B
• Steven Wright, RHP
• Eddie Degerman, RHP
• Craig Cooper, 1B

Of those players, I would only take looks at Wright and Cooper. Steven could be a mop-up man in a bullpen, and maybe develop into a decent reliever. Craig is a right-handed bat with a little gap power,and a good eye. He can play some first base and outfield, so he also brings some versatility, and he has a little speed too. He does enough things to perhaps justify a bench spot on a 2010 major league roster, though he won't threaten any incumbent starter.

If I were Jack Z, I wouldn't be looking at any of them. However, I think most teams (especially in the NL) should at least take a look at Cooper.

Second, here is the list of M's players available in the Rule 5 draft:

• Andrew Baldwin, RHP
• Leury Bonilla, 2B
• Dwight Britton, OF
• Edilio Colina, 2B
• Aaron Cotter, RHP
• Ogui Diaz, RHP
• Gavin Dickey, OF
• Jeffrey Dominguez, SS
• Wellington Dotel, OF
• Juan Fuentes, C
• Eddy Hernandez, LHP
• Thomas Hubbard, 1B
• Aaron Jensen, RHP
• Cesar Jimenez, LHP
• Brent Johnson, OF
• Johan Limonta, 1B
• Kuo Hui Lo, OF
• Maximo Mendez, OF
• Erick Monzon, INF
• Israel Nunez, C
• Luis Nunez, 2B
• Blake Ochoa, C
• Kyle Parker, RHP
• Carlos Peguero, OF
• Stephen Penney, RHP
• Ronnie Prettyman, INF
• Steven Richard, RHP
• Mumba Rivera, RHP
• Robert Rohrbaugh, LHP
• Pat Ryan, RHP
• Kalian Sams, OF
• Travis Scott, C
• Terry Serrano, SS
• Alfredo Venegas, RHP
• Mike Wilson, OF

I hope that's everyone (and everyone on the list is actually eligible). I am a baseball geek, but not a big enough one to go through this process for every organization. Only a few names pop out on the list for me. Cesar Jimenez certainly does. He was injured last year, but he's only 25 years old with a little MLB experience, and his brief time in the majors was good too. Teams are always looking for left-handers. Because of that, Robert Rohrbaugh also could be looked at. Andrew Baldwin and Kyle Parker may get a few sniffs too, and maybe someone likes one of them as a middle reliever. Baldwin in particular sits in the low 90s, so he has a pretty decent arm.

Among position players, Mike Wilson, Johan Limonta, and Carlos Peguero are the players that stand out above the rest for me. Of that trio, Limonta is the most polished product, and he also brings the most defensive versatility (though I don't think he is that great of a defender anywhere). Wilson has great power, but holes that have been exposed repeatedly in AA and AAA. Peguero is a younger version of Mike Wilson. They should have too many flaws to get picked, and definitely have too many to stick with another team.

So, if anyone is getting picked from the M's, I'd bet on Rohrbaugh or Jimenez. Don't pay much attention to Rule 5 draft previews, either. They mostly focus on trying to find diamonds in the rough. The majority of players picked profile as fringe bench players or stopgaps in bullpens. If they were that good, they wouldn't be eligible for the Rule 5 draft...at least 999 times out of 1000 or so. The rare diamond in the rough is what gives the Rule 5 draft any appeal at all.

How Low Can They Go?

The Mariners are no longer on the verge of the playoffs. They are no longer on the verge of turning the season around. They are not even on the verge of a meltdown. The meltdown has arrived.

Tonight felt like their last gasp. It was game 10 of this 11 game road trip that the team felt would make or break their season. Already 0-9 on the trip so far, Seattle's odds did not look good tonight either with Jarrod Washburn going against John Lackey. The Mariners got down early 4-0 but battled hard and actually took the lead with a 5 run explosion in the fifth, highlighted by a three-run homer from Ben Broussard. It looked like the Mariners might hand the bullpen a lead for the first time in ages.

But it was not meant to be. Seattle was browbeaten for four more runs and the game seemed out of reach at 9-5 in the eighth inning. There was hope with runners on the corners and only one out, but with one pitch Scot Shields induced a double play ball off of Jose Lopez's bat to squelch that threat. Once again the Mariners mounted a charge in the ninth, but it fell short thanks to a series of questionable stike calls that led to a Snelling K to end the ballgame.

Then, as if the game and the losing streak was not enough of a gut shot, word broke that Jamie Moyer had been traded to the Phillies for a pair of low-level minor-leaguers. While Ichiro is very popular, Jamie Moyer in many ways was the face of this franchise. He certainly was a pillar in the community and a rare athlete who transcended sports in this region, especially considering he has never been a superstar. This is an absolute publicity nightmare, especially in the midst of a 10-game losing streak, but I would have been willing to swallow the deal if it made good, sound baseball sense. The problem is it does not. Moyer has now signed a mutual option for 2007 with Philadelphia, making a return to Seattle in 2007 seem unlike. The Mariners already had two holes to fill in their rotation with Meche and Pineiro likely to leave, and now the Mariners have added yet another one by eliminating Moyer, a rather safe bet to re-sign. Though one of the prospects they received in return looks like a potentially good reliever down the road, does the Seattle bullpen really look like a weakness right now? It does not help either that the first comment I read on the deal from GM Bill Bavasi was, "It's not a thrill." Though he was specifically addressing simply dealing away Jamie Moyer and he went on to say some good things about the prospects they picked up, that is not exactly the first thing you want to read from your GM's mouth.

I really cannot imagine things getting much worse for the Mariners. They have lost 10 straight games overall, and an unfathomable 19 straight against AL West opponents. And, if that was not enough of a gut shot, they traded Jamie Moyer. This has to be rock bottom, doesn't it?

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