Rule 5 Draft Preview

There are literally hundreds of players eligible to be picked in the Rule 5 Draft. I would have to manually compile the list, and I do have enough of life outside of musing about the Mariners to keep me from doing that.

Instead, I will offer a couple modest lists. First of all, college players from the 2006 draft not on a team's 40-man roster are eligible this year. That was the first year I compiled a watchlist. Here are the players from my 2006 list available in this year's Rule 5 draft:

• Whit Robbins, 1B
• Steven Wright, RHP
• Eddie Degerman, RHP
• Craig Cooper, 1B

Of those players, I would only take looks at Wright and Cooper. Steven could be a mop-up man in a bullpen, and maybe develop into a decent reliever. Craig is a right-handed bat with a little gap power,and a good eye. He can play some first base and outfield, so he also brings some versatility, and he has a little speed too. He does enough things to perhaps justify a bench spot on a 2010 major league roster, though he won't threaten any incumbent starter.

If I were Jack Z, I wouldn't be looking at any of them. However, I think most teams (especially in the NL) should at least take a look at Cooper.

Second, here is the list of M's players available in the Rule 5 draft:

• Andrew Baldwin, RHP
• Leury Bonilla, 2B
• Dwight Britton, OF
• Edilio Colina, 2B
• Aaron Cotter, RHP
• Ogui Diaz, RHP
• Gavin Dickey, OF
• Jeffrey Dominguez, SS
• Wellington Dotel, OF
• Juan Fuentes, C
• Eddy Hernandez, LHP
• Thomas Hubbard, 1B
• Aaron Jensen, RHP
• Cesar Jimenez, LHP
• Brent Johnson, OF
• Johan Limonta, 1B
• Kuo Hui Lo, OF
• Maximo Mendez, OF
• Erick Monzon, INF
• Israel Nunez, C
• Luis Nunez, 2B
• Blake Ochoa, C
• Kyle Parker, RHP
• Carlos Peguero, OF
• Stephen Penney, RHP
• Ronnie Prettyman, INF
• Steven Richard, RHP
• Mumba Rivera, RHP
• Robert Rohrbaugh, LHP
• Pat Ryan, RHP
• Kalian Sams, OF
• Travis Scott, C
• Terry Serrano, SS
• Alfredo Venegas, RHP
• Mike Wilson, OF

I hope that's everyone (and everyone on the list is actually eligible). I am a baseball geek, but not a big enough one to go through this process for every organization. Only a few names pop out on the list for me. Cesar Jimenez certainly does. He was injured last year, but he's only 25 years old with a little MLB experience, and his brief time in the majors was good too. Teams are always looking for left-handers. Because of that, Robert Rohrbaugh also could be looked at. Andrew Baldwin and Kyle Parker may get a few sniffs too, and maybe someone likes one of them as a middle reliever. Baldwin in particular sits in the low 90s, so he has a pretty decent arm.

Among position players, Mike Wilson, Johan Limonta, and Carlos Peguero are the players that stand out above the rest for me. Of that trio, Limonta is the most polished product, and he also brings the most defensive versatility (though I don't think he is that great of a defender anywhere). Wilson has great power, but holes that have been exposed repeatedly in AA and AAA. Peguero is a younger version of Mike Wilson. They should have too many flaws to get picked, and definitely have too many to stick with another team.

So, if anyone is getting picked from the M's, I'd bet on Rohrbaugh or Jimenez. Don't pay much attention to Rule 5 draft previews, either. They mostly focus on trying to find diamonds in the rough. The majority of players picked profile as fringe bench players or stopgaps in bullpens. If they were that good, they wouldn't be eligible for the Rule 5 draft...at least 999 times out of 1000 or so. The rare diamond in the rough is what gives the Rule 5 draft any appeal at all.

2009 West Tenn Diamond Jaxx At a Glance

My Mariners midyear organizational review continues with a look at their AA team, the West Tennessee Diamond Jaxx. It has been a tough year for the team, though they are hot right now with six wins in a row. Even with the winning streak, their overall record for the season is 38-48. Still, there are a few Mariners prospects on the team worth mentioning and watching in the second half of the season:

Phillipe Aumont, RHP - The M's 2007 first-round draft pick was recently promoted to West Tennesee from High Desert, and so far so good. The new M's regime switched Aumont to the bullpen because they feel his mentality is better suited for it, and it also puts him on a faster track to the majors. His stuff is ready for the majors (remember how silly he made David Wright look in the World Baseball Classic?), but it is a matter of consistency for Phillipe. Considering he is only 20 and still growing into his 6'7" frame, a little inconsistency is more than understandable. It is only a matter of when Aumont joins the M's bullpen, not if. I think at least half a season in Tacoma would do him good, but a strong spring training in 2010 could land him a spot on the opening day roster. I would definitely send Phillipe to the Arizona Fall League after this season for a little extra work.

Ezequiel Carrera, CF - With all the players the M's acquired in the Putz trade that have already contributed at the major league level, it is easy to forget about the younger prospects in the deal. Carrera was one of them, and all he is doing is batting .320 with a .438 on-base percentage and great speed at the top of the Diamond Jaxx lineup. He just turned 22 and should be in Tacoma by next year. Carrera is similar to High Desert prospect Tyson Gillies.

Josh Fields, RHP - Last year's first round draft pick has a 4.70 ERA so far, but in his case that is a terrible judge of the season he is having. Josh is all about a power fastball and power curve, and after nearly a year off thanks to how long contract negotiations were, he figured to be rusty. He was, as evidenced by his high walk rate. However, his batting average against is under .200, and he is striking out well over a batter per inning. Moreover, half his walks came in April, and his ground ball to fly ball ratio has gone from around .5 to 1 at the start of the season to around 1 to 1 now. Josh is getting the ball down and in the strike zone as he shakes the rust off. His stuff is already major league quality, so it is only a question of command. I would definitely send Fields to the Arizona Fall League once the season is over, and prime him to come into spring training next year and compete for a spot in the Mariners bullpen. He is closer than his season statistics indicate.

Greg Halman, OF - A break-out 2008 season transformed Halman from a toolsy talent to one of the M's top prospects. Just 21 years old, Halman is having an interesting season in AA. His batting average is only .215, which is not surprising with his 114 strikeouts and just 17 walks in 274 at-bats. His plate discipline leaves plenty to be desired. However, 34 of his 59 hits are for extra bases, including 20 home runs! Halman has serious power, especially for his age. He also has good speed, though his stolen base numbers have plummeted this year. Halman needs to work counts more, and shortening his stroke would not be a bad idea either. Still, despite major flaws that would sink most 21-year-olds in AA, Halman is staying afloat. He probably has the most raw talent of any Mariner farmhand.

Nick Hill, LHP - The 24-year-old West Point graduate has found a home in the bullpen this year. Though a southpaw, he has been more effective against righties, but the split is not too drastic even in a limited sampling size. Hill keeps the ball on the ground and strikes out more than his fair share of batters. He should be in Tacoma next year, but also could be a dark horse to make the M's 2010 opening day roster, like 2008 Diamond Jaxx pitchers Chris Jakubauskas and Shawn Kelley did.

Kyle Parker, RHP - The 24-year-old UW graduate is putting together a solid season for the Diamond Jaxx. He has been solid and productive at every level so far, and though nothing stands out, he is a local product on track to be in Tacoma next year. Parker reminds me a bit of Ryan Franklin as a prospect - nothing real flashy, but if he gets a chance in the majors, he may stick around for a while.

Justin Souza, RHP - Justin split last year between low and high A, pitching primarily out of relief. This year, he has pitched primarily as a starter, and despite the new level and role is putting up comparable numbers to his 2008 performance. Souza generally does not work deep into ballgames, so his home may ultimately be in relief. He is also a fly ball pitcher, though those fly balls do not leave the ballpark often. Souza's good command certainly helps.

Between Aumont, Fields, and Hill, it seems likely that at least one player currently on the West Tennessee roster will play for the Mariners at some point next year. Looking down the road (perhaps as early as 2011), Aumont and Fields could be an end of the game tandem unlike Seattle has ever had. Can you imagine King Felix or Brandon Morrow handing the game to those two after seven strong innings of work? It is fun to think about.

Tomorrow wraps up the minor league portion of the Mariners midseason review with a look at AAA Tacoma. It will be a bit of an anticlimactic finish because so much of the talent has been up with the Mariners already, but it is where any help from inside the organization this year will come from.

Prospects Looking At Promotions

Though the unofficial halfway mark for the MLB, the All-Star Break, is still a month away, minor league teams are about halfway through their seasons now. Since the low level leagues divide the season into two halves, conveniently around the draft, it's fairly typical to see players who have done quite well so far this year to get promoted throughout the system. So, here's a look at some Mariners prospects that are most likely to get promoted:

WISCONSIN (A)
Andrew Barb, RP - Barb, acquired in the Jamie Moyer trade, has served as the closer for the TimberRattlers and he's been sensational, with a sub-1.00 WHIP and striking out well over a batter an inning. Like Kantakevich, he has nothing more to prove at this level.

Joseph Kantakevich, RP - Another product of last year's draft class, Kantakevich has done everything that can be asked of a reliever, even pitching multiple innings at times. He's got nothing left to prove at this level.

Kyle Parker, SP - Parker, a UW product, was drafted last year and so far has stood out, thanks to a dazzling whip hovering around 1.00. Nothing else is especially great about his numbers, but especially given how weak the High Desert staff has been, he's done enough to deserve a promotion to see what he can do. The lower minor league levels are going to have to be cleared out some anyway to make room for all the pitchers drafted this year.

HIGH DESERT (A-Advanced)
Casey Craig, OF - Craig has served primarily as High Desert's leadoff hitter, and he's done a marvelous job. He has shown good speed, a little power, but most impressively great plate discipline and the ability to hit for average. Craig has been on a tear the last couple weeks and has raised his batting average to almost .350 on the season. Though he's playing in a very hitter-friendly park, plate discipline and speed are not impacted by friendly confines.

Michael Saunders, OF - Saunders is on pace for a 20-homer, 40-steals year, all while hitting .300 with an OBP around .400. As with Craig, his stats are buoyed by the hitter's paradise he plays his home games in, but at the same time nobody else on the ballclub has flashed power and speed like Saunders.

Adam Moore, C - I wasn't happy when the M's drafted yet another catcher last year, but that guy turned out to be this guy, Adam Moore. All Moore has done is flash 30-homer potential with good hitting and plate discipline. He looks like a good, old-fashioned slugger. However, his power numbers could be largely a product of the ballpark he plays in. Still, I'd gladly demote current Diamond Jaxx backstop Rene Rivera to High Desert to see if Moore could bat better than .200 with just a hint of power in AA.

WEST TENNESSEE (AA)
Travis Chick, SP - Chick got hammered in a brief stint in Tacoma, but he's flat-out dominated AA in a couple outings. He's not getting challenged right now, so it's time to move him to Tacoma.

Brent Johnson, OF - Johnson has quietly hit well at all levels, and he's continued that trend at West Tennessee. He hasn't shown much power, but he can definitely hit. He's right on the bubble, but I would push him to Tacoma to make more room for Saunders and Craig. Still, there's a playing time issue in Tacoma too, thanks to Jeremy Reed, Adam Jones, and Wladimir Balentien.

TACOMA (AAA)
Adam Jones, OF - The improvement Adam Jones has made in the last two and a half years is astounding, and he continues to get better seemingly every day. His strikeout rate is still worrisome, but he's batting .330 with a ton of extra base hits. On top of that, he's developing into an excellent defensive player. If the M's could find a decent deal for Jose Guillen, I would trade him, move Ichiro back to right field, and hand center over to Adam Jones. Jones has as much power as Guillen, and his defense is much better at this point.

Mike Morse, IF - It could be argued that Morse isn't a prospect anymore, but what can't be argued is that Morse is hitting very well for the Rainiers right now, and his versatility makes him even more enticing as a bench player for the M's right now. If I were in charge, I would bring up Morse and send down Bloomquist, because little versatility is lost and a legitimate right-handed pinch-hitter is gained. Jason Ellison could become the main pinch-runner, and maybe even get to play a little more in the outfield too.

Wladimir Balentien, OF - Balentien seems to have put power and discipline together this year for the very first time. Two years ago, he had lots of power with few walks, and last year lots of walks but diminished power. Maybe Wladimir is a one-year wonder, but there's plenty of reason to believe this is simply him developing. What's also overlooked is his versatility (he can play all three outfield positions), and his speed (he's on pace for over 20 steals this year). Much has been made about his strikeouts, but he's actually struck out less than the more-touted Adam Jones. It could even be argued that Balentien is more major-league ready than Jones at this point. I'd consider moving Raul to first base full time, benching Sexson, and seeing what Balentien can do. However, more realistically, Balentien will compete for a spot with the Mariners next year.

Jorge Campillo, SP - Though it was Ryan Feierabend that got called up for a few spot starts this year, it's Campillo that has been the best pitcher on the Rainiers staff all year long. He's no ace, but he doesn't give up many home runs, and he could be a reliable starter at the back end of the rotation right now. The only problem is that Campillo is not on the 40-man roster, which prohibits him from being called up without someone already on the 40-man getting released. However, if the M's don't protect Jorge somehow, I think someone will be smart enough to purchase his contract and give him a chance.