Scott Baker Joins Roster Mix

Scott Baker, back in the day (Keith Allison, photographer)

The Mariners made a couple small moves today, ditching Carlos Peguero on the Royals for cash or a player to be named later, and signing Scott Baker to a minor league deal with an invite to spring training (plus incentives for innings pitched). The Peguero move is minor - he was already in DFA limbo - though I will miss his mammoth at-bats in Tacoma. He was a fun one to watch, much in the same way Dan Cortes was a few years back. POWER and FATAL FLAWS, which will win?! In AAA, the outcome wasn't so certain as it is in the majors. Hence the fun.

The more interesting move is Scott Baker, who has been rumored as a fit for the Mariners for some time now. He joins Mark Rogers on the M's scrap heap of possible rotation arms, though is much stronger bet than Rogers, given that Rogers has struggled to throw strikes throughout his minor league career. Baker, on the other hand, sports 17.5 career WAR in nearly 1,000 MLB innings.

Baker, now 33 years old, isn't exactly a workhorse, given that he has only topped 200 innings once in his career. He also doesn't do anything particularly well - he has a decent strikeout rate, good walk rate, average home run rate, his fair share of ground balls, doesn't work all that deep into ballgames - literally no stand-out skill. However, Baker also doesn't have any real flaws, and no flaws over 170-ish innings racks up some surprising WAR.

Now, there is the possibility that Baker is finished, particularly given that he had Tommy John surgery in 2012. However, he made it back for three starts right at the end of last season and held his own. Many Tommy John arms bounce back more the second year after returning to the mound too, so there is a non-zero chance that Scott Baker gets stronger as 2014 wears on. If he does, the Mariners have themselves a solid rotation arm.

Frankly, a roster spot is Baker's to lose. His contract reportedly includes incentives tied to innings pitched. The only way he doesn't crack the rotation is if both James Paxton and Erasmo Ramirez look good in spring training, and in that case Baker is likely a bullpen arm.

Ervin Santana and Ubaldo Jimenez, the top arms left in free agency, have had some up-and-down years recently, though both entered the market after "up" seasons. Baker hits the market "down." He probably isn't as good as Santana or Jimenez, but there isn't a $10 million talent gap between them, and his contract isn't about to make things awkward if/when more of the M's young arms are ready for a try in the rotation. It's been a while since I've felt this good about a move the Mariners made.

Minor Youth Movement Begins

Gone are Ryan Langerhans and Milton Bradley. In their places are Carlos Peguero and Mike Wilson.

Obviously, the most interesting part of all of this is that Bradley is gone, and his baseball career might very well be over. I could say something, but plenty has already been said.

Instead, I will take a look at what this means on the field. It is a puzzling pair of moves, though in the end they might not make any sort of difference.

Winter Updates

There are lots of Mariners playing baseball right now. Some just wrapped up their season in Arizona, while others are playing in Venezuela, the Dominican Republic, and Australia. For a complete list of M's spanning the globe right now, click here. I could give a few thoughts on each player, but the list is quite long. Instead, I will pick out players from the crowd to highlight.

Rule 5 Draft Preview

There are literally hundreds of players eligible to be picked in the Rule 5 Draft. I would have to manually compile the list, and I do have enough of life outside of musing about the Mariners to keep me from doing that.

Instead, I will offer a couple modest lists. First of all, college players from the 2006 draft not on a team's 40-man roster are eligible this year. That was the first year I compiled a watchlist. Here are the players from my 2006 list available in this year's Rule 5 draft:

• Whit Robbins, 1B
• Steven Wright, RHP
• Eddie Degerman, RHP
• Craig Cooper, 1B

Of those players, I would only take looks at Wright and Cooper. Steven could be a mop-up man in a bullpen, and maybe develop into a decent reliever. Craig is a right-handed bat with a little gap power,and a good eye. He can play some first base and outfield, so he also brings some versatility, and he has a little speed too. He does enough things to perhaps justify a bench spot on a 2010 major league roster, though he won't threaten any incumbent starter.

If I were Jack Z, I wouldn't be looking at any of them. However, I think most teams (especially in the NL) should at least take a look at Cooper.

Second, here is the list of M's players available in the Rule 5 draft:

• Andrew Baldwin, RHP
• Leury Bonilla, 2B
• Dwight Britton, OF
• Edilio Colina, 2B
• Aaron Cotter, RHP
• Ogui Diaz, RHP
• Gavin Dickey, OF
• Jeffrey Dominguez, SS
• Wellington Dotel, OF
• Juan Fuentes, C
• Eddy Hernandez, LHP
• Thomas Hubbard, 1B
• Aaron Jensen, RHP
• Cesar Jimenez, LHP
• Brent Johnson, OF
• Johan Limonta, 1B
• Kuo Hui Lo, OF
• Maximo Mendez, OF
• Erick Monzon, INF
• Israel Nunez, C
• Luis Nunez, 2B
• Blake Ochoa, C
• Kyle Parker, RHP
• Carlos Peguero, OF
• Stephen Penney, RHP
• Ronnie Prettyman, INF
• Steven Richard, RHP
• Mumba Rivera, RHP
• Robert Rohrbaugh, LHP
• Pat Ryan, RHP
• Kalian Sams, OF
• Travis Scott, C
• Terry Serrano, SS
• Alfredo Venegas, RHP
• Mike Wilson, OF

I hope that's everyone (and everyone on the list is actually eligible). I am a baseball geek, but not a big enough one to go through this process for every organization. Only a few names pop out on the list for me. Cesar Jimenez certainly does. He was injured last year, but he's only 25 years old with a little MLB experience, and his brief time in the majors was good too. Teams are always looking for left-handers. Because of that, Robert Rohrbaugh also could be looked at. Andrew Baldwin and Kyle Parker may get a few sniffs too, and maybe someone likes one of them as a middle reliever. Baldwin in particular sits in the low 90s, so he has a pretty decent arm.

Among position players, Mike Wilson, Johan Limonta, and Carlos Peguero are the players that stand out above the rest for me. Of that trio, Limonta is the most polished product, and he also brings the most defensive versatility (though I don't think he is that great of a defender anywhere). Wilson has great power, but holes that have been exposed repeatedly in AA and AAA. Peguero is a younger version of Mike Wilson. They should have too many flaws to get picked, and definitely have too many to stick with another team.

So, if anyone is getting picked from the M's, I'd bet on Rohrbaugh or Jimenez. Don't pay much attention to Rule 5 draft previews, either. They mostly focus on trying to find diamonds in the rough. The majority of players picked profile as fringe bench players or stopgaps in bullpens. If they were that good, they wouldn't be eligible for the Rule 5 draft...at least 999 times out of 1000 or so. The rare diamond in the rough is what gives the Rule 5 draft any appeal at all.

2009 High Desert Mavericks at a Glance

After looking at Clinton yesterday, it is time to move up a level in the system to High Desert. The High Desert Mavericks play in the California League, which is known for its offense. In fact, the Mavericks played a game a little over a week ago against the Lake Elsinore Storm that they lost 33-18! The loss was exceptional though; High Desert won the league's first half title. It has been a very good year for the Mavericks so far, and here are the prospects leading the charge:

Joe Dunigan, 1B/OF - Last year, Joe showed good power potential in the Midwest League, along with stealing 28 bases in 32 tries. However, he hardly made consistent contact, and at 22 years old in that league it was a discouraging sign. What a difference a year, and a more hitter-friendly atmosphere, makes. Dunigan already has more home runs and walks than all of last year, despite jumping up a level. He has cut down his strikeouts too. Some of the progress is likely due to the smaller ballparks, but not all of it with the quantam leap forward Dunigan has made. His power/speed combination remains what makes him intriguing.

Tyson Gillies, CF - The 20-year-old Canadian has burst on the scene this year after a good 2008 season in Everett. Speed is his most impressive tool, as he may steal 40 bases this year. He combines that with good plate discipline, which is even more impressive considering how young he is, and a little extra base power. Gillies has all the makings of a prototypical leadoff hitter, and perhaps is the heir apparent to Ichiro at the top of the M's order if he continues to develop.

Donald Hume, LHP - Honestly, Hume's numbers are about as pedestrian as they get. Nothing is all that spectacular about them. However, in the offensively-charged California League, normal numbers for a pitcher indicate a job nicely done. Hume is already 23, and without any qualities standing out he is a fringe prospect. He has been on a roll since June though.

Alex Liddi, 3B - Liddi struggled mightily last year, posting just a .673 OPS in the Midwest League. However, the 20-year-old Italian has exploded this year with an OPS that has stayed above 1.000 the entire season. He is a five-tool talent, though still a raw one. Liddi strikes out fairly often, and does not draw a ton of walks. Still, he is threatening to win the California League triple crown, and his immense progress this year is undeniable.

Jamie McOwen, OF - A 23-year-old repeating the California League after a modest 2008 did not figure to make this post. However, a 43-game hitting streak that is still going changes that. It is already the longest in California League history by 8 games, and is only the 20th hitting streak of 40 games or longer in professional baseball history (that includes the major leagues). Regardless of age or level, McOwen's hitting streak is impressive. Jamie will have to continue to make a ton of contact to be a decent prospect, because he has limited power, and nothing else aside from all the hits really jumps out. Nothing from his professional career indicated such an incredible streak coming from McOwen, but while hitting streaks are parts fluke and luck, 43 games certainly takes talent.

Carlos Peguero, RF - Peguero is extremely aggressive at the plate, but thus far in his professional career finds a way to hit a bunch of what he swings at pretty hard. This season he already has 14 doubles, 12 triples, and 18 home runs, which in total means over half his hits are going for extra bases. The trouble is that Peguero strikes out about once out of every three at bats. It is feast or famine with him at the plate, and at some point his batting average is likely to plummet. The good news is that Peguero already has twice as many walks this year than he did in all of 2008...then again, it is not hard to do that when you walk 10 times total in a season. Still, the ability to post a .900 OPS with few walks speaks to the 22-year-old's raw talent.

Travis Scott, C - Already 24 and repeating in the California League, Scott is already a fringe prospect. However, his OPS has gone from .791 last year to around 1.000, indicating significant improvement at the plate. With the first half Scott put up, I would be tempted to promote him to AA and see what happens.

Jacob Wild, RHP - Already 24, Wild is old for the level, and is not the best prospect on the Mavericks pitching staff (Juan Ramirez probably is, though Michael Pineda will give him a run for his money when he is healthy). However, Jacob has been the most productive pitcher on the Mavericks, even while bouncing between the bullpen and starting rotation. He gives up a ton of hits, but everyone on the staff has. It is the California League, after all. What sticks out for Wild is a low home run rate. Keeping the ball in California League ballparks is a challenge, and is a reason to believe Wild may develop into a useful major league arm.

Even in a league that inflates offensive numbers, the Mavericks best talent is clearly on offense. Juan Ramirez and Michael Pineda, two of the M's most promising young pitchers, are both in High Desert. I could have included them in the post, but I want to focus on the most productive prospects. Pineda has been injured most of the year, and Ramirez has been a little shaky. Plus, it is not hard to find information on Juan Ramirez, but guys like Donald Hume and Jacob Wild do not get as much publicity. Tomorrow we will move up to AA and check on the West Tennessee Diamond Jaxx, where the major leagues all of a sudden do not seem so far away.