Current Hall of Famers

I have been watching college football all day, which is awesome, but it still isn't baseball. The holidays stalled my posts too. Well, that and a lack of any sort of news in baseball. There still is not much to say, though Hall of Fame inductees will be announced on the fifth.

That will do for a subject. I won't write a "who I would pick" kind of post, because I don't have a vote.

Instead, how about active players just waiting to make the Hall of Fame? Here is my starting lineup of active players who could end up in the Hall of Fame:

Thoughts On Doc

I missed all of the first day of the playoffs at work, which is a shame because it was a great day. In particular, it is amazing that Roy Halladay threw a no-hitter, the first in the postseason since Don Larsen's perfect game in 1956. It also happened to be Halladay's first postseason start, and his second no-hitter of the season.

My first thought was "wow." Doesn't yesterday's start put Roy Halladay in the Hall of Fame? I think his case has been growing, but a perfect game and no-hitter in the same season? A good chance that he will win a second Cy Young this year, and if he does, have Cy Young awards in both leagues?

Perfect Pair

Perfect games are amazing. They are never expected, and to me, arguably the most perfect feat in all of sports (mild pun perhaps intended). That's not to say that a perfect game is the hardest or greatest spectacle to accomplish. However, how many other things in sports are so staggeringly unlikely, yet approachable by just about anyone if it is their lucky day?

One perfect game in a year is amazing enough. After Roy Halladay's gem last night, we have witnessed two this month. With only 20 perfect games thrown in the last 120 years of Major League Baseball, I find that stunning.

What are the odds of that?

Actually, not too hard to figure out.

The odds on a perfect game are pretty simple to calculate, assuming a game goes nine innings. It is simply the chance that a pitcher retires 27 batters in a row. On-base percentage measures exactly how likely a pitcher is to get a hitter out, and how likely a hitter is to record an out. It is the only statistic we need. For our purposes, we will assume the defense never makes an error, which is rather reasonable, because reaching base on error is included in on-base percentage.

I looked up the box scores for both Dallas Braden's and Roy Halladay's perfect games, to figure out their odds of throwing perfect games against the hitters they faced. I compared each pitcher's opponents on-base percentages (essentially WHIP, but in OBP form), to the league average to figure out how above or below average both pitcher was, compared to the league average. Not surprisingly, both are well below league average. I then took the factor I had created through the comparison, and multiplied each hitter's on-base percentage by it. In theory, the resulting number was the expected on-base percentage in the matchup between the pitcher and hitter.

Since I was digging this deep into the calculations, I decided to go a step further. Both of these games were pitched early in the season, particularly Braden's. So, instead of using each hitter and pitcher's numbers at the time of the perfect game, I decided to go on their projection for the full season at this point, according to ZiPS. This brought regression into play, and should capture the true talent levels in the games better than the limited numbers accumulated had.

Bringing regression into play passes the eye test. It made Halladay's perfect game more likely than the raw numbers suggested, and Braden's four times less likely than the raw data implied.

Without further ado, the numbers:

• Odds of Dallas Braden throwing his perfect game: 11,402 to 1
• Odds of Roy Halladay throwing his perfect game: 5,938 to 1
• The Rays lineup Braden faced would have to play 373 seasons before it would be expected to have 1 perfect game thrown against it by an average pitcher
• The Marlins lineup Halladay faced would have to play 306 seasons before it would be expected to have 1 perfect game thrown against it by an average pitcher
• Odds of Braden throwing a perfect game this year: 296 to 1
• Odds of Halladay throwing a perfect game this year: 182 to 1
• Odds of Halladay and Braden both throwing perfect games this year: 53,936 to 1
• Odds of Halladay and Braden both throwing perfect games this year, within three weeks of each other: 3,545,976 to 1

I think the numbers illustrate why this hasn't happened before. Thanks to expansion, increasing strikeout rates, and better defenses, perfect games are more likely than ever before. Perhaps putting a more concrete number on how much more likely is a good topic for another post. How counterintuitive is it to think that perfect pitching is easier in an era where baseball offenses are understood better than ever before?

Still, perfect games in today's baseball world, however more likely they may be, are not that likely. A couple in a month, when it historically takes 15 or 20 years for a couple to get tossed, is beyond something we will never see again. It is something we never should have seen in the first place.

The Perfect Deadline Deal

I will write a trade deadline recap looking at all the deals. However, for me, one stands out way beyond the rest. Minutes after the deadline passed, a bombshell dropped across the newswires. Jake Peavy got traded to the White Sox for pitchers Clayton Richard, Aaron Poreda, Adam Russell, and Dexter Carter.

I don't even know where to start with this trade. It's as good as a deadline deal gets.

Jake Peavy is one of baseball's best pitchers when healthy. He has not been for months though. In fact, he is still on the DL. Chicago likes Peavy's chances to be back by the end of August. Jake is a former Cy Young award-winner, and relies on a wicked fastball-slider combo to overwhelm hitters. When healthy, he and Mark Buehrle will be a formidable 1-2 punch.

Clayton Richard is a 25-year-old southpaw in the midst of his first full season in the majors. He slid into the White Sox rotation in the middle of this year, and has been okay. His better days are ahead of him, and he will immediately look better in Petco's much more spacious confines. He looks like a third or fourth starter to me.

Aaron Poreda is the gem of the deal. He is only 22 years old, but has flown through Chicago's minor league system. A former first-round pick, he is a tall lefty with a powerful arm and good stuff. He has been effective in the White Sox bullpen in limited opportunities, but make no mistake, his future is as a starter. San Diego will send him to AAA for a little seasoning, which is a good idea. He should get a look in September though, and be in the rotation by 2010. He has as good of a chance to become a top-of-the-rotation starter as any prospect in baseball.

Adam Russell is a tall right-handed reliever (interestingly, all the pitchers the Padres got are abnormally tall). He is a bit older at 26 years of age, and got in 22 games for the White Sox last year out of the bullpen. Russell looks like an average reliever, but it's worth noting that he is inducing way more ground balls this year, and he is also moving to Petco. He could be a pleasant surprise in this deal, though he will not be a star.

Dexter Carter is the prospect by far the longest away from the majors. The 22-year-old from Old Dominion has plenty to like though. He has overpowered hitters since his pro debut around this time last year. Just this year, he has 143 strikeouts in 118 innings. Carter has been pitching in the pitcher-friendly Carolina League, and he is if anything a little old for the league. Still, the insane strikeout numbers speak to a powerful arm. It is too early to say how good Carter may be, but I will take my chances with an arm like that.

As a baseball fan, I love this trade. It's got everything you could ever want. A bona fide star player is involved. A top prospect is involved. Peavy turned down the White Sox earlier this year, but apparently has had a change of heart. Nobody saw the deal coming. It was stunning when it became public.

The deal is so risky for Chicago. Peavy may only get five or six starts before the end of the year. On top of that, the White Sox are not an elite team. They are in a winnable division, but they aren't that much better than the Mariners. Granted, Peavy is under contract for the next three years (and a fourth if the White Sox exercise a massive $22 million option), so Peavy is not a rent-a-player. Still, at least part of the motivation for making the deal now is to win now, and Peavy will be healthy for a month at best.

This is the boldest deal I've ever seen. It's no secret that White Sox GM Ken Williams loves Jake Peavy, and he also loves making bold deals. However, I never imagined something this bold or risky.

This was a no-brainer for the Padres. Even if they pick up all of Peavy's salary this year, it's a terrific deal for them. They rid themselves of a hefty contract, and in the process get some premium talent back. Clayton Richard will be plugged into the rotation immediately, and it shouldn't take long for Poreda to join him. He and Latos have the potential to become a fantastic duo at the top of the rotation for years to come. San Diego still really needs some hitting, but their pitching is all of sudden young, cheap, and good.

This was not a no-brainer for the White Sox. Peavy is obviously the best player in this deal, and he should be great for several years once he is healthy. However, I am not as high on him as Ken Williams is. Peavy is a bit of a max effort guy, and his stuff strains his arm more than a guy like Mark Buehrle. Peavy also has quite a bit of mileage on his arm for as young as he is. I think Peavy will develop arm problems within the next few years, or if he doesn't, his velocity will sink a little, and the slider will flatten out a little.

On top of my concerns over Peavy, I am very high on Aaron Poreda. It would not surprise me if he is a better pitcher than Jake within the next few years. He will certainly be better for the price - $15-17 million versus $400-500K - but he may just be flat-out better if Peavy fades some as I think he may. Add in the rest of the talent in the deal, and the financial aspect, and that's why it is such a no-brainer for San Diego.

As a final note, I wonder what kind of discussions Ken Williams had with J.P. Ricciardi about Roy Halladay. Williams said he made a push for Roy, and was disappointed with the response. Granted, Halladay is not under contract for as long as Peavy, and he is a few years older. I also have a hunch that Williams simply like Peavy better. However, you would have to think the Blue Jays got a comparable offer for Halladay to what the Padres just accepted for Peavy.

If Chicago wouldn't part with Poreda for Halladay, I would understand. However, for the sake of argument, let's say they offered Poreda, Clayton Richard, and Josh Fields. That seems plausible. I like that package better than the rumored Phillies deals. I prefer Poreda to Kyle Drabek, and Richard is comparable to J.A. Happ at worst. Fields is a young third baseman with power potential. I don't like him as much as Dominic Brown, but he is closer to the majors and plays a more premium position. Plus, as I said earlier, I prefer Poreda to Drabek, so Fields does not have to be better than Brown to make the deal worth it.

Was Ricciardi really that stuck on getting four players? Granted, I'm speculating a ton here with my proposed trade. However, looking at the Peavy deal, and knowing that the White Sox went after Halladay, I question how Toronto and Chicago did not come to an agreement. More specifically, I question Ricciardi. It's only excusable if the White Sox would not include Poreda. Otherwise, Ricciardi blew it.

In the end, I'm glad the White Sox did not get Roy Halladay. This Jake Peavy deal is everything a baseball fan could ask for. It came out of nowhere. It's bold and risky. It has star power. It happened right up against the deadline. It's dramatic no matter what angle you look at it from. This is what the trade deadline is all about.

Trade Deadline Looms

A legitimate heat wave is sweeping the northwest, and my computer doesn't do well once it gets above about 70 degrees. With 90-100 degree heat for days on end, updating the musings has proven difficult, and will likely stay that way through the trade deadline. However, too much is going on to stay completely silent. This year's trade deadline is shaping up to be a pretty decent one. First of all, a recap of some deals over the past couple days:

• The Rockies acquired Rafael Betancourt from the Indians for minor leaguer Connor Graham. Colorado gets needed help in the bullpen. Cleveland gets a young starter that is sneaky good. Somehow Graham keeps the ball in the yard in the California league. Decent deal for both sides, but I'd say Cleveland got the better end of it.
• The Giants acquired Ryan Garko from the Indians for minor leaguer Scott Barnes. The Giants acquired some offense, which they desperately needed. Garko is relatively young, so he could be more than a short-term answer. As for Cleveland, they got a promising young pitching prospect. Barnes has an ERA under 3.00 in the California League, which is remarkable. He's a bit of a fly ball pitcher, but clearly hitters struggle to square up his pitches. Barnes is also a lefty, only increasing his value. This is definitely a trade that helps both teams. The Giants have pitching galore, but need offense. The Indians are okay on offense, but really need young pitchers. Both teams win in what looks like a very fair deal on paper.
• The Red Sox acquired Brian Anderson from the White Sox for Mark Kotsay. Kotsay was designated for assignment by Boston, so the trade is not shocking. Anderson is in some ways a younger version of Kotsay, though Kotsay in his prime was a superior hitter and defender. Still, Boston turned a non-asset at this point into a player with a similar skillset they can control for a few years. Anderson didn't fit in with Chicago at this point, and I'm not sure how Kotsay will fit any better. In the end, it's probably a next-to-meaningless deal, but I'd give a slight advantage to Boston.

At this point, what's way more interesting are the potential deals. Here are my bold predictions, based mostly on my gut and a little bit on rumors. I have no inside information at all, but I enjoy intrepid guesses as much as anyone:

• Victor Martinez is not going to be traded. It sounds to me like Cleveland's ownership loves him too much. He's not that expensive for how valuable he is either. With Ryan Garko traded, Cleveland can play Victor at first base more if they really want to give Carlos Santana a chance to play in the majors. Travis Hafner is starting to look old in the DH spot too. The bottom line is that Santana and Martinez can co-exist on Cleveland's roster, so clearing room for Carlos is not an issue.
• Roy Halladay is not going to be traded. Toronto GM J.P. Ricciardi has really botched this deal in my opinion. He said way too much in the media, though Halladay is a remarkable professional and did not let it impact his performance. Additionally, if some of the rumored deals nixed are true, I think Toronto's asking price has been too low. Still, with a low asking price, they can't get something done. I don't see a team trading the farm for Roy at this point, given how expensive he is, and that he is only signed through 2010.
• Cliff Lee is going to be traded to the Rays. I doubt Tampa Bay ever seriously entered the Roy Halladay sweepstakes, given how expensive he is. There are a few too many whispers about the Rays trying to make a big splash for them to not be looking to make a deal though. I'd put my money on Lee. He is much more affordable than Halladay for the next few years, and he complements the power arms that Tampa Bay has quite nicely. My guess is that Lee lands in Tampa Bay as part of a three-way deal that sends Kazmir to the third team involved, and both Tampa and the third team sends prospects to the Indians.
• Jarrod Washburn is going to be traded to the Phillies. At this point, Philadelphia has to have some pressure to acquire a starting pitcher. They've aggressively pursued Roy Halladay, but that deal is falling through. They will (or perhaps already have) turned their attention to Cliff Lee, but I like my darkhorse Rays to nab him. That leaves the Phillies scrambling with only a few days to go to get a legitimate starting pitcher. Since they've already convinced themselves they can part with some good prospects to get a good pitcher to help them now, I think a deal between the M's and Phillies could happen quickly. Surely shortstop Jason Donald would look interesting to Jack Z. Throw in a guy like Carlos Carrasco too and that might be enough, unless a bidding war over Washburn happens between all the teams that lost out on Halladay and Lee.
• Freddy Sanchez is going to the Giants. It makes way too much sense to not happen. I don't know who San Francisco will give up, but it will happen.
• Jack Wilson will not be traded. His expiring contract is not as big of a problem as Sanchez's vesting option, so I think Pittsburgh will focus on dealing Freddy. The Pirates will run out of time to put together a deal they like to ship Wilson away.
• The Twins will acquire Orlando Cabrera. Talks have heated up, and he seems quite expendable by the A's at this point. A deal is not imminent, but the two sides are talking, and will meet in the middle by July 31.
• The Brewers will acquire Justin Duchscherer. They don't want to mortgage much of their future, and Justin should come cheap since he has been injured. He'll certainly come cheaper than Halladay or Lee, or even Jarrod Washburn at this point.
• Adrian Gonzalez isn't going anywhere, but Heath Bell is. Too many teams want relievers, and San Diego has too many holes. My sleeper team to get Bell is the Angels. They seem determined to make a deal, and while they'd like a starting pitcher, I'm sure they would like the idea of Bell and Fuentes nailing down the end of ballgames. They could offer someone like Sean Rodriguez to San Diego, or maybe even Jose Arredando. That's purely speculation though.

The deadline should be fun. I think there will be significant movement, regardless of what happens with bigger guys like Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee. Too many teams in contention have glaring holes that they can patch with trades. I'm looking forward to seeing what deals actually happen, and if any of my "educated" random guesses come to fruition.