M's, Feller, and More From Cyberspace

Several things have been going on in the baseball world that I've wanted to write about, but me and my urge to spread holiday cheer to people I see face-to-face on a regular basis have kept me away from the blogosphere.

Luckily, several great writers have already said lots of what I'd like to talk about. So, instead of stealing their ideas, I'll link to them:

Cliff Lee, Truly Intangible

I don't know how other fans feel, but personally I love how amazing Cliff Lee is being in the postseason for the Rangers right now. It feels weird to root for Texas, but I can't help but root for Cliff Lee. He isn't "the one that got away." He was amazing for the Mariners, and the utmost professional, and now the whole world gets to see what we saw for a couple months. They are getting an eyeful, to say the least.

My question right now (and I don't have an answer), is how much has Cliff Lee been worth to the Texas Rangers?

I am not sure a price can be put on Lee's contributions. Certainly, someone could pencil out the WAR numbers, or virtually any metric that they please, and come up with some quantifiable way to say how much he is worth, post-season included.

However, I don't think a price tag can be put on Cliff Lee right now. Seriously, can anyone quantify what he has done for the Texas Rangers in his three playoff starts alone? He won two of the three games in the ALDS, including a complete game effort in the decisive game five. That was the performance that propelled Texas to their first series victory in the playoffs ever.

Then tonight, Cliff Lee goes to Yankee stadium, and delivers one of the greatest starting performances in LCS history. A couple hits, a walk, and 13 Ks against the Yankees? Are you kidding me? This win tonight clinched a return to Arlington, either for the end of the ALCS, or for the World Series.

It really is not that debatable: Cliff Lee, about as alone as you can get in baseball, is pitching the Texas Rangers to heights that the organization has never been before.

Cliff Lee Traded

Cliff Lee, and his borderline mythical tenure with the Mariners, is over almost as abruptly as it began. Today was clearly a frenzy, and he is now property of the Texas Rangers, along with Mark Lowe, for four players that I will touch on in the following paragraphs.

I've never hidden my attraction to Cliff Lee, the marvelous pitching ace. I didn't want him to go. I wanted him to be pried out of the M's hands with a deal that couldn't be turned down. As luck has it, he might have.

Justin Smoak is a legitimate first baseman for the future. He was the starting first baseman for the Rangers, but he is only 23 years old, and in the midst of his rookie campaign. The best is yet to come with Smoak, but he instantly becomes the starting first baseman here, and the best power threat aside from Russell Branyan.

As a brief side note, I am a little surprised that Branyan did not go to Texas. They need a starting first baseman. I thought that would have made sense for both sides with Smoak included. Why they wanted Lowe, whose season is already over, puzzles me some. From the M's perspective, it does not bother me that he was included.

Blake Beavan is the other significant piece that the Mariners got in return. He is a huge right-hander (listed at 6'7" and 250 pounds), but he hasn't struck many hitters out. However, the production overall is rather good, and he is only 21 years old with AA experience. I think Beaven is still a year away, but that's not that far away. He is a safe bet to make the majors, and be a solid starting pitcher. I don't think Beaven will ever be a star, but he will be quietly good, especially if he plays in a big ballpark with a good defense behind him.

In some ways, the most interesting piece is Josh Lueke. He is a 25-year-old righty blowing hitters away out of minor league bullpens. He is a little old for the levels he has played at, so take the eye-popping numbers with a grain of salt. However, one way or another, Lueke and Lowe are probably tied together in the deal. Did the Rangers want Mark Lowe bad enough that they were willing to add Lueke, or did the Mariners want Lueke bad enough that they were willing to give up Lowe? I am not sure, but my educated guess is that the final haggling was done over these two players.

Last, and probably least, is Matt Lawson. According to scouts, the guy plays a mean second base, and according to his hitting numbers, he knows a thing or two about what to do at the plate. Looking at his stature and production though, he set off Tug Hulett alarms all over my head. I am glad he did, because I have been looking for an excuse to link to Tug's stats all year long. He has fallen off a cliff this year in AAA Pawtucket, and for whatever reason, it's 15 seconds that make me feel good inside every time I look at them. I digress. Getting back to a meaningful point, Lawson profiles in a similar role as Hulett - the type of guy organizations love to have hanging around AAA, or their bench, or around their starting lineup for a couple weeks in a pinch, but that's about it. Considering the M's best options in this role are aging veterans Josh Wilson and Chris Woodward, Lawson was a worthwhile throw-in.

The price tag I put on Lee a couple weeks ago was the equivalent of a few first-round draft picks, plus something else. That is what would make a deal worth considering. Smoak and Beavan alone are worth more than a couple first-round draft picks (not surprisingly, both were first-rounders themselves). Neither are far from being contributing MLB players, and I personally think Smoak has a chance to be just a tick below Mark Teixeira. Their skillsets and paths to the majors are rather similar.

Smoak and Beaven for Lee, straight up, is a deal I strongly consider. Toss in Matt Lawson, and that's probably enough for me to bite. Add Lowe and Lueke to the deal, and my feelings don't change much. Lowe is probably better, but I'm not sure. His mounting injury history worries me. Even if Lueke is never as good, if he is solid for three or four years, it was probably worth trading him for Lowe straight up at this point of their respective careers.

All in all, without knowing about other offers, I have a hard time believing there was a better one than this on the table. The best player the Mariners got in return immediately fills the biggest black hole in the organization (with apologies to catcher, but I still have hope for Adam Moore). Not only is the price fair, but the talent acquired plugs holes. That is the definition of a good fit.

Jack Zdurienciek and friends got this deal right. They maximized their leverage, and got a package that made moving Cliff Lee worthwhile. It is going to be painful watching Lee anchor a Texas-sized playoff run in Arlington this year, but imagine all the Rangers fans that will cringe when Smoak starts assaulting the Hit It Here Cafe.

Finally, When It All Goes Right

Photo by Seth Wang, AP

I think at this point, we can all safely say that we have seen what the 2010 Mariners look like when it all goes wrong. It is ugly. We have read plenty about how it happens, and what would make it better too. Most of all, it has been depressing to watch, and has been so bad that it has likely sunk the season.

The 2010 Mariners, after showing their worst side far too many times so far this season, finally have showed their best the past two nights. Sure, this team is bad a little too often, but when it is not, it is spectacular. This isn't a normal bad team.

How do the Yankees feel right now? They are in the argument for best team in baseball, and play exceptionally well at home. They also play in the most competitive division in baseball, where winning at a high rate is a must to stay in the hunt. Given their position, the lowly Mariners should have been one of their best chances to breathe easy.

Instead, Cliff Lee and Felix Hernandez put their spikes in New York's throat, and never let up. Quite literally really, as both went the distance in memorable performances. Lee's outing was subpar (by his epic standards), but Felix was in awe-inspiring control. The Yankees not only have lost the first two games in this series; they never had a chance.

Arguably, the M's offense got a little lucky facing a version of Phil Hughes on too much rest, and a disappointing Javier Vazquez. However, they scored seven runs in back-to-back games, and still the headlines are about the pitching. That says all you need to know about how good these performances were.

For the season, the Yankees are the better team. However, for the past two nights, they have been owned by the Mariners. Some of that is just the nature of baseball, but much of the credit should go to the Mariners. It is probably too little, too late to save the season, but at least we finally saw this team at its absolute best.

Teams will have bad and good stretches. We had seen the bad. Finally, we see the good, and it came out in New York against the defending World Series champions. This is the kind of prize teams in the midst of lost seasons rarely get to savor, partly because most bad teams do not have an upper end this high. Consolation prizes are always bittersweet, but this one is awfully sweet.

Cliff Lee's Value

I have never been emotionally attached to a player quite like Cliff Lee. He is not my favorite Mariner of all time (it will be a while before someone challenges Edgar Martinez), but a player has never captured my imagination like Cliff. I might shed a tear if he is traded, even though all along I've known he could be around for a year or less. I expected to appreciate Lee's masterful pitching, but I did not expect to fall in love with it like I have.

So, admittedly, I am looking for logical reasons to keep Lee around, even if it is just through the end of this increasingly lost season. However, I think there are some sound reasons.

First of all, Cliff Lee will be a Type A free agent, and if he leaves the Mariners, it will almost certainly be to a championship contender. That means it is almost a lock that the M's would get two first-round draft picks if he leaves.

Second, I believe Cliff Lee is elevating the performance of the pitchers around him. I am not sure he does much for Felix, because Felix is so naturally competitive. However, watching Lee go out every fifth day and dominate hitters by attacking the strike zone is an incredible example for guys like Doug Fister and Jason Vargas to follow. Moreover, one of Lee's quirks is how much he talks, especially during his starts. He shares what is in his head while also demonstrating what it leads to. I agree with anyone else that looks at the data and results, and conclude that Vargas and Fister aren't as good as they have shown so far. However, both are in the midst of breakout seasons, and Lee's role should not be downplayed. I think even three more months of Lee could make several pitchers on this staff a little better in years to come.

As a fan, I wish Cliff Lee was untouchable. I wish he could pitch forever with the Mariners just like he has been. However, he will never look better than he has now, and any team is getting fewer and fewer starts with him the farther we go into the season. The logical time to trade Lee is clearly right now.

Still, I wonder what team would give up the price I would be looking for. The two prime draft picks and incremental improvement of pitchers around Lee have to be replaced in the trade. That certainly can be done. In my mind, it takes a younger position player or starting pitcher that is contributing in the majors right now, along with a couple of legitimate prospects. Either that or a budding star, but I think that is unrealistic.

Without a doubt, several teams have the parts to acquire Cliff Lee. I just wonder if anyone would give up the minimum I would demand for only three to four months of him. We may find out in the near future. As a fan, I won't be heartbroken if nobody does.

Mariners Poised for Rebound

Another day, another M's loss. At least the earlier bullpen meltdown guaranteed that this would not be a walk-off loss. Not that the bullpen really lost the game, because the offense blew a bunch of golden, bases-loaded opportunities.

Believe big!

The most interesting part of this game happened immediately afterwards. A players-only meeting was called, and usually I don't pay much attention to these. I have no idea what was said, but this one has a chance to be powerful. It was called by new players - Cliff Lee, Milton Bradley, and Chone Figgins.

This team has looked directionless on the field. It seems stuck in its ways, particularly of late, and that wouldn't be such a bad thing if their ways weren't so bad. The players are well aware of the hole and corresponding rut they are in, and it stinks for everyone involved.

However, it is easy to be competitive and happy when a team is winning. It is much harder to be on good terms when a team is losing, particularly when players are paid a ton to win.

That is part of what intrigues me so much about this team meeting. This season keeps drawing comparisons to the 2008 debacle, where everything went wrong. There have been nights where I have wondered if this team would be remembered in a similar way, and tonight was one of those nights - until the team meeting.

There are guys in that clubhouse who aren't going to let this season go without a fight. They won't accept losing, and they keep doing things behind closed doors to try to kick start something. Bad stretches have a knack for showing true colors, and I think this team saw something promising in the wake of this latest loss.

It saw Cliff Lee, increasingly the epicenter of trade talks, step up tonight and talk to this team about whatever he talked about. That's pretty special. Not only is he epically good more often than not on the mound, but he is invested in the team. He is all about winning, even with every reason in the world to worry about himself at this point. Talk about make-up that is off-the-charts.

How about Milton Bradley too? What kind of bizarro world are the 2010 Mariners living in? He was supposed to be the guy that would benefit from this clubhouse atmosphere. As of tonight, the tables completely flipped. It was Milton Bradley trying to bring this team together. He might be in the process of emerging as a clubhouse leader. Unbelievable.

Seeing Chone Figgins step up might have been the best of all. He is around for a while with the contract he signed. He has a chance to become a new clubhouse rock, in a way that an aging guy like Mike Sweeney can't be.

A clubhouse meeting won't breed a 35-home run slugger. However, these guys have to live with each other and the miserable season they are suffering through for a ton more games. Losing like this is ugly, and it seeps in everywhere.

Yet, there are guys stepping up, taking accountability, and putting up a fight. There are players that care on this team, and that take pride in the product on the field.

A new order might have begun to be established tonight. It could prove to be big. I don't think it is big enough to lift the 2010 Mariners from the ashes, but it might be enough to keep this organization from sinking, and needing to clean house. Losing ballclubs can develop losing attitudes, but this one has not yet, and I don't think it will after the leadership shown tonight. Too many people don't just say they care. They legitimately care.

Talking about the leadership shown in a clubhouse meeting totally ranks as a moral victory, and those don't do anything for the win-loss column. However, after watching how this team has performed for the past week, I'll take any victory I can get. Tonight could prove to be a turning point though. This team still believes it is better (and that's good, because it is), and it is not about to give in either.

The Mariners Woeful "Supporting" Cast

What started as a little investigation I found tweet-worthy has ballooned into a full post. I take glances at the Fangraphs WAR leaderboards from time to time, and noticed a pair of Mariners ranking highly, Franklin Gutierrez and Cliff Lee. In case the acronym WAR doesn't mean much to you, it stands for wins above replacement. In theory, it is a measure of a player's overall value. The player with the highest WAR is arguably the most valuable player in all of baseball.

Then I got to thinking: It has to be hard to be as bad as the Mariners with a couple elite talents, doesn't it?

That's where the tweet barrage comes in. Here are some fun little factoids I threw out there this morning:

• As of today, only four teams have a top-10 WAR position player and pitcher - the Phillies, Red Sox, Twins, and Mariners
• As of today, seven teams have two top-10 WAR position players or pitchers - the four aforementioned teams, plus the Blue Jays (two top 10 pitchers), Rays, and Tigers (for Tampa and Detroit, two top 10 hitters)
• Two more teams, aside from the ones already mentioned, have at least two players who have posted a 2.0 WAR or better this year, the Cardinals and Nationals

I mentioned a total of nine teams in the three bullet points above. Seven of them have winning records. Of the two with losing records, the Nationals are 25-26, and the Mariners are 19-30. Moral of the story: a baseball team is 25 guys, but if you have a couple of great players, it is hard to be bad.

Yet the Mariners have found a way to be bad with a couple great players, and watching the team, it doesn't seem like an anomaly. Shockingly, the Mariners have had 11 players play for the team so far this year that have posted a negative WAR so far this year. Here are the numbers (for position players and pitchers).

Negative WARs are really, really bad. A 0 WAR player is in theory the kind of guy that is a dime a dozen in AAA; far from an average MLB player, and not even a real valuable bench player. In other words, according to WAR, the numbers suggest that the Mariners have had 11 players play that would not even round out a AAA roster all that nicely.

If all the negative WAR performances were replaced with 0 WAR players, the 2010 Mariners would be 3.6 wins better, in theory. That puts the team at 22-27, or 23-26, and only 3 or 4 games back in the AL West.

For me, everything that is so frustrating about this team is illustrated by the WAR numbers. The Mariners have a legitimate core group that a successful team can be built around. However, the supporting cast has been so laughably bad. It takes a catastrophically horrible group of players to drag down this team's core, and that's what the Mariners have.

The 2010 Mariners should not be this bad, but they are. It is hard for so many players to be so horrible, especially when most of them have given positive contributions with their gloves. It is inevitable that, one way or another, the team's negative contributions will eventually get at least to zero. When they reach that point, this will be about a .500 team. The Mariners will get better, but not better enough, and certainly not soon enough.

Moving forward though, there is a silver lining. The core of this team is producing, and aside from Lee, it is locked in place for several more years. On top of that, guys like Michael Pineda and Dustin Ackley are not too far away in the minors. The Mariners do not need a full-blown overhaul to be respectable by as early as the end of this year, and the future is still bright.

Zduriencik Still The Right Man

Since the Mariners are off today, I want to try to push something out to think about. I could count the podcast (and you should listen if you are interested in getting another take on this team's struggles), but we might as well make today a double feature.

It has become apparent that the 2010 Mariners aren't as good as the 2009 Mariners. Considering how much worse they are, and all the new faces, it is easy to presume that some moves made by Jack Zduriencik have backfired badly. In fact, it is logical to presume that.

So, what if Jack Z hadn't made any moves this offseason? Would this team be in better shape? Time for some bullet points...

• Kenji Johjima would still be catching - Is there much doubt that Kenji would be the best catcher on this team right now, or at least giving Josh Bard a run for his money? Hard to argue against that, offensively and defensively. However, is it fair to pin Kenji's sudden retirement on Zduriencik? I don't think so, and it did free up some money. It might be fair to criticize Z for not replacing him, but I still think Josh Bard was the right type of guy to target. The real problem to me is trotting out Rob Johnson so often because A) he isn't that good and B) it did Adam Moore's development no favors before he got hurt (though admittedly he looked totally lost at the plate). I think Don Wakamatsu shares some of that blame though.
• Russell Branyan would still be at first base - The team seemed concerned about Branyan's back, and their concerns were warranted. Guess what? He wouldn't have made much of a difference because he missed the first month of the year. Since coming off the DL, he has a .219/.301/.438 line, which is definitely better than what we've seen, but noticeably below his production from last year too.
• Bill Hall would still be on the bench, or maybe playing regularly somewhere - Who would you rather have, Bill Hall or Casey Kotchman? So far, Hall has accumulated a .188/.282/.333 line in Boston, though with only 79 plate appearances. However, his combined line last year was .201/.258/.338 with the Brewers and M's, and in 2008 he batted .225/.299/.396. I don't think his production will get much better with more time. Granted, Hall brings some defensive versatility, and a little more thunder in his stick, but it's hard to argue this offense or defense is in better shape with him over Kotchman.
• Adrian Beltre is still at third base - This is another obvious spot where things would be better if they had stayed the same. Beltre is having his best season so far since his massive NL campaign that netted the big contract from the M's. However, is it really Z's fault that Beltre moved on? He offered Beltre arbitration, and I wrote about how Beltre would have earned more by accepting it. There is nothing more Zduriencik could have done to keep him around, so I have a hard time pinning this one on him. It's hardly like Beltre was just shown the door.
• Carlos Silva is in the rotation - ...and we don't have Milton Bradley. Even with as surprisingly good that Silva has been so far, is this team better with him? With the hot starts by Doug Fister and Jason Vargas, I don't think so. Furthermore, is this offense worse with Milton Bradley? Again, I don't think so. Bradley is one of the better hitters in the lineup, even with his slow start. As much as the national media has some fun with this deal at the M's expense, I wouldn't ask for a mulligan.
• Miguel Batista is still around - ...and I'm guessing that means Kanekoa Texeira or Jesus Colome is out. Texeira has been inconsistent, but that beats consistently horrible. Batista versus Colome...yeah, I'll admit, that's a tougher call.
• Brandon Morrow is still around - ...and Brandon League is not. Certainly, League has been inconsistent, but is he really more inconsistent than Morrow? So far, in 9 starts with the Jays, Brandon has averaged exactly 5 innings a start, and sports a 6.80 ERA. He strikes out almost 12 batters per 9 innings, but almost walks 6 at the same rate. There are some numbers (particularly a high BABIP) that suggest he will get a little better, but you would hope so with those horrendous numbers. Would the current M's be better if they didn't make the deal? I'm going to say no. Besides, even with some anticipated regression, Morrow is still the maddeningly inconsistent Morrow we loved and hated the past couple seasons.
• No Cliff Lee - Zdurienciek didn't give anyone up on the 25-man roster for Lee, so he was simply added to the roster (for the sake of what this post is exploring). This team is better with him, and I don't think I have to build much of a case for that.
• No Chone Figgins - This is the fairest move to criticize. Figgins has clearly been a bust to this point, and the contract may lock the M's in to several more years of this. Especially with other, cheaper alternatives like Kelly Johnson and Orlando Hudson doing better, this does not look like the move that was best for the ballclub.

Where did Jack Zduriencik fail? For the most part, the moves he made still look neutral or like improvements, even with this team falling well short of expectations. The DH slot is the easiest to pick on, and I missed it with the way I looked at things in this post, but would a guy like Edgar Martinez in his prime solve all the offensive woes?

For all that Jack touched that turned to gold last year, the same kind of breaks haven't been there this year. I don't see any catastrophic moves made by Z as of yet though. Maybe one bad one (the Figgins signing), but when put in the context of all the great ones he made last year, and the promising talent quickly accumulating the farm system, I still see a process heading in the right direction.

Cliff Lee Successfully Appeals

On the heels of a convincing 8-2 victory over the woeful and increasingly star-crossed Baltimore Orioles, the Mariners scored another win. More accurately, Cliff Lee scored his first victory of the season, before throwing his first pitch of the season (yeah, he's that good). This morning, Major League Baseball rescinded Lee's five-game suspension.

Finally, this ridiculous situation is over. I felt that Lee never should have been suspended in the first place, and this decision validates my stance. The punishment did not fit the crime at all. It is quite rare for a player to get suspended in spring training, most commonly occurring in response to big spring training brawls. Cliff Lee threw one very bad-looking pitch that happened to go over the head of the batter, during an outing where he was struggling with his control. After the game, he was diagnosed with the abdominal strain. It looked to me like Cliff Lee was being suspended for getting injured, and being rusty.

However, what bothers me even more is how poorly baseball handled the appeal. Lee was supposed to have a hearing near the end of spring training, but some baseball official forgot to show up. That is what pushed the appeal into the season, and even this decision took almost a week to come down. Major League Baseball moved at a glacial pace from the start, which I find incredibly unfair to Cliff Lee and the Mariners. It was getting difficult to time Lee's rehabilitation because of their slow pace.

It is kind of ironic that this is the same office that likes to complain about the slow pace of baseball games, but I digress. Major League Baseball handed down an unfair suspension, and then poorly handled the appeal process. The least they could have done was drop it, and to their credit, they did.

Finally, it is okay to get all excited over Cliff Lee again!

Ain't over 'til it's over, and we haven't begun

Milton Bradley is getting ejected every other day. Cliff Lee got suspended, but it doesn't matter anyway with his abdominal strain. Doug Fister got drilled by a line drive. Jack Hannahan won't be ready for the start of the season. All Chone Figgins does is walk and boot more balls at second base than any of us are comfortable with. Jose Lopez isn't making anyone forget about Adrian Beltre at third base, either.

Where did all the optimism go?

It shouldn't be tempered as much as it is right now. There are all sorts of reasons to be excited for this team and its potential - or at least a whole bunch of reasons to not have a drastically different opinion after the past week or two of spring training.

First of all, the injuries are getting blown out of proportion. Jeff Sullivan over at Lookout Landing did an excellent job calming nerves about the Jack Hannahan situation. If Hannahan had pulled his groin in May, I'd be shocked if people reacted like they have right now. He is a utility infielder gone for a couple weeks, and he isn't the only utility infielder the M's have. Depth is as much about having guys you can limp along with when little things pop up as having guys as good as each other. This team can limp along with whoever takes Hannahan's spot.

Copy and paste that last paragraph for the Doug Fister's little injury, though I think in the end he will be ready anyway, and I'm not sure he makes the roster even if he is totally healthy.

Cliff Lee's abdomen is more troublesome. Not only is Lee a critical piece, but it wreaks of an injury that could linger. However, have we forgotten about the 2009 Angels already? Remember how they started the year without Kelvim Escobar or John Lackey, and everyone wondered who would step up in their rotation? Then, on top of that, Nick Adenhart DIED a couple weeks into the season? Kelvim Escobar never came back for the Angels, but John Lackey did, and at the end of the year the Angels were among the best teams in baseball.

Does an abdominal strain to the number two starter sound as bad as what the Angels faced last year? I know I am glossing over significant personnel differences, but the point is that nobody had the Angels pegged as a premier team coming out of spring training last year. People (including myself) looked at their injuries and said "no way," but yet there they were. There is freedom for things to happen when games are decided on the field, regardless of what might be expected.

Lastly, here and there I see some fretting over Griffey's lack of production in the spring, and the errors accumulating at second and third base. These worries could be prophetic. I'm not going to say they don't matter. However, if we are worried about spring performances, guys like Eric Byrnes and Casey Kotchman can't be conveniently ignored. Both look pretty darn good. Their performances have as much of a chance to be prophetic as anyone else's.

It is too easy to lose sight of the big picture in spring training. Production only becomes a story when it is connected to some pre-existing assumption. People already wondered if Griffey could produce, and already wondered if the Figgins/Lopez position switch would work too. Injuries are magnified because they upset the all-important opening day roster. From a player's perspective, I don't doubt that it's a big deal to break camp with the big league ballclub. From an organizational perspective though, injuries should be assumed. Losing a guy for a week or two is unfortunate, but it happens, and it's a week or two out of a six-month season whether it happens in early April or the middle of June.

A couple weeks ago, I thought this team had a chance to win the division, and a pitching staff with the potential to carry it on a deep postseason run. Nothing has happened since then to change this team's potential. We haven't learned much about this team in the past few weeks that we didn't know a couple months ago, Cliff Lee's abdominal pull notwithstanding. That's not enough for me to lose my optimism, especially with how young the season is. There is no good reason to think much of anything different yet.

A Combustible Clubhouse?

The only thing that might stop Jack Zduriencik from making a deal on Christmas day are all the other GMs stopping to open their stockings. As if Cliff Lee wasn't enough this week, he flipped Carlos Silva to the Cubs for Milton Bradley.

On paper, the deal is miraculous. Bradley had a down year in 2009, but draws walks at prolific rates, and has proven over the course of his career that he can hit. If healthy and happy, Bradley is a legitimate force in the middle of the M's lineup.

Over the course of Bradley's career, those health and happiness have been huge ifs though. It's hard to forget when he tore his ACL in San Diego as he was restrained by manager Bud Black from going after an umpire. Even a person who does not value clubhouse chemistry at all would be worried about Bradley's attitude. He is about as combustible as they come.

On top of that, it has become clear that Cliff Lee was surprised by the trade. It is just as clear that he really liked Philadelphia, and wanted to stay there.

So, did the Mariners just add a disgruntled pitcher, itching to leave at the end of the season, and couple him with the biggest clubhouse cancer baseball has seen in a long time? Or, have they added two key pieces they can ride all the way to October?

There is a case to be made for both scenarios. For now, I'm inclined to believe the latter. Here's why.

First of all, why wouldn't Cliff Lee be disappointed in the trade? He just went to the World Series with Philadelphia, after being on an Indians team that was going nowhere. Then, the Phillies approached about a contract extension. He had his eyes set on many deep October runs in Philadelphia.

All of sudden, Lee is shipped to the farthest outpost in Major League Baseball. He doesn't know much about Seattle, as he has said. What he knows is that he is leaving a situation he liked a bunch.

That's what I've heard with Cliff Lee's remarks. He hasn't said much about Seattle. What he has expressed is how much he liked Philadelphia, and he wouldn't have chosen to leave. That makes perfect sense.

There is ample room for Lee to like Seattle, especially if the team wins. That's no guarantee that he will stay, but there is a distinct possibility that he could. Everyone, including Cliff Lee, will get a feel for those odds as the season unfolds.

Even if Lee hates Seattle, he is a true professional, and is a season away from a big pay day in free agency. Lee will perform to the best of his ability no matter his feelings about the city and situation. I am not worried about him.

Milton Bradley, on the other hand, is a well-documented problem in lots of the places he has gone. He seems quite mercurial and volatile, to the point that nobody probably has a true idea what he will do.

We do know this though. The M's coaching staff features a couple people who worked with Bradley when he was in Oakland and Texas, the two places he did not really cause problems. Jack Zduriencik also says that Bradley is very excited to be in Seattle. All indications are that Bradley will walk into a clubhouse excited to have him, and a situation he is excited to be in. The relationship will get off to a mutually good start. I think most places Bradley has gone, he has been met with reservation (and probably for good reason). However, that only seems to feed Bradley's problems.

Milton will probably be high maintenance, but the Mariners are loaded with guys capable and willing to do what it takes to keep him in good spirits. There are legitimate reasons to believe that Bradley will be happy and productive with the Mariners. Again, that's no guarantee, but a whole bunch better than hoping for lightning in a bottle.

Not that trading Carlos Silva for a shot in the dark would have been a bad idea. He had no spot on the Mariners. Milton Bradley could be a very useful player. Still, it is alarming that Bradley's personality was deemed so destructive by the Cubs that they were willing to ship him away straight up for arguably the worst contract in all of baseball right now.

We will find out how it plays out. At this point, is there a more intriguing team heading into 2010 than the Seattle Mariners? Between Lee and Bradley, this team went from a nice story, to a developing story, to maybe THE biggest story (Yankees and Red Sox not withstanding, of course). Hopefully it's one with a happy ending.

The Biggest Trade In Mariners History

The Cliff Lee deal is probably hours away from being official. Word this morning is that somebody failed their physical (perhaps Aumont?), so maybe I am jumping the gun. I'll cross my fingers and say the deal still gets done somehow.

As of yesterday, there were still whispers of someone besides Lee coming to the Mariners, so perhaps we do not know all the details quite yet. Still, it's obvious that Cliff Lee is the centerpiece coming to Seattle, and Phillipe Aumont, Tyson Gillies, and JC Ramirez is the price the M's paid.

There's that whole Roy Halladay end to the trade too. That's kind of a big deal.

There are also reports that Michael Taylor will go to the A's for Brett Wallace, once Taylor officially goes to the Blue Jays in the impending blockbuster Lee-Halladay blockbuster duel deals.

As of now, including that aforementioned A's-'Jays side deal, four teams and nine players are involved at the least. It is a complex deal, and rather than go through the entire thing, I'll stick to this blog's title and muse about the Mariners.

The players the M's gave up, although young prospects, are guys we've heard about. Gillies was in the Futures game over the summer, and so many (including me) have written about him. He has tremendous speed, and coaches say power will start to pop through. Aumont has been on the radar ever since the M's made him their first round draft pick a couple years ago. As we saw in the World Baseball Classic, he has the kind of stuff to make guys like David Wright look completely overmatched. However, he does not have the control to do that on a consistent basis, as evidence by struggles in AA and the Arizona Fall League.

JC Ramirez (also known as Juan Ramirez) is an interesting third prospect in the deal. Scouts universally rave about his stuff and his mental make-up. Although I'm yet to see him, it seems that he looks like a top-of-the-rotation starter in the making. The catch is that his production is yet to match that potential, and he is on the verge of AA. Ramirez is still young, and I respect scout evaluations. However, prospects destined to be impact MLB players tend to "out-talent" others in low-level minor leagues, in my experience. Whatever flaws they have can't be exposed by the level of talent. That's not the case with Ramirez, though he has had flashes of brilliance.

Do I really have to say much about who the M's are getting? Cliff Lee is awesome. We saw him own the Yankees in the World Series. That's Lee at his finest. He is durable, he is a workhorse, and he is unflappable. He's worth at least double his $9 million salary in 2010. Lee also only has only one year left on his deal though.

I am still in shock about this deal. It's a total steal for the Mariners. Aumont is nice, but the M's have other power bullpen arms. David Aardsma isn't going anywhere for a few years (provided he stays as effective as he was). Mark Lowe is young too, and Josh Fields was in AA and the Fall League along with Aumont, and outperformed him at both levels. Aumont is a talented young pitcher, but redundant.

Lots of the same can be said about Tyson Gillies. I'm sad to see him leave, but Michael Saunders has already made the majors, Ezequiel Carrera should be in AAA to start 2010, and there's Dustin Ackley now too (although maybe he's the future at second base). At the MLB level, Gutierrez and Ichiro aren't going anywhere anytime soon. There is still a bit of a glut in the outfield, even without Gillies.

Lastly, JC Ramirez is far from a sure thing, considering he is yet to have good production. With the pitching depth Z has added the past year, and impending returns of Ryan Feierabend and Michael Pineda from injuries, JC's loss is more than manageable.

In other words, the Mariners are on the verge of acquiring a Cy Young award-winner in his prime for three prospects they already have replacements for in their system. That's a little different than the Bedard deal, agreed?

Furthermore, Cliff Lee will almost certainly be a Type A free agent, and if he leaves the Mariners, will even more certainly join a contender. That means if he walks, the M's will get two draft picks, the signing team's first-rounder, and a compensatory pick between the first and second rounds. So, even if Lee walks at the end of the year, Seattle should have a chance to directly replace two of the prospects lost with comparable (or maybe even better) ones. That's the worst case scenario in this deal.

Not bad, not bad at all.

Enough about risk management. The Mariners just acquired Cliff Lee, a Cy Young award-winner in his prime. They ripped headlines away from the Red Sox as they signed John Lackey to a monster deal. They dashed the Angels' hopes of acquiring Roy Halladay. They may very well have shifted the balance in the AL West with this deal.

Seriously, dream with me for a second. Let's say the M's beat out the Rangers and Angels for the AL West title. That's looking more and more reasonable by the day. Even without an offense that lights the world on fire, what team would want to face Cliff Lee and King Felix in a short series? Those are low-scoring games waiting to happen, and one of the lineups will have Ichiro and Chone Figgins at the top, and the other won't. That's a nucleus a team can ride to a championship. It's not enough by itself, but it is a long ways towards enough.

It's a whole bunch closer than Jose Vidro and Miguel Batista, that's for sure.

This is the biggest trade in Mariners history. Cliff Lee probably is not the greatest pitcher the Mariners have ever acquired in a trade. That honor has to go to Randy Johnson. However, Randy Johnson wasn't the Big Unit when the M's got him. He was an erratic, but promising, lefty. On the other hand, Cliff Lee is Cliff Lee. He is a finished product. He is a Cy Young winner. He threw a complete game shutout in game one of the World Series against the eventual world champions only a couple months ago. The Mariners have never acquired a player of Lee's caliber in his prime.

This is huge. This is what the big boys do. This is a statement. Even if the report of the failed physical makes the whole deal fall apart (which would be devastating), the statement has been made. Jack Zduriencik has the guts, the brains, and the skills to pull off mega-deals. I think we all saw that potential with the Putz trade, and all the rumors that swirled at the Winter Meetings.

It is no longer potential though. Z pulled off this deal. A failed physical would be an unfortunate glitch. Physicals don't happen until the sides of discussed and agreed to the deal though. (Honestly, I don't think a failed physical stops the deal at this point too)

The statement has been made. Angels, we're coming for you, and we will catch you. It's only a matter of time.

Trade Deadline Looms

A legitimate heat wave is sweeping the northwest, and my computer doesn't do well once it gets above about 70 degrees. With 90-100 degree heat for days on end, updating the musings has proven difficult, and will likely stay that way through the trade deadline. However, too much is going on to stay completely silent. This year's trade deadline is shaping up to be a pretty decent one. First of all, a recap of some deals over the past couple days:

• The Rockies acquired Rafael Betancourt from the Indians for minor leaguer Connor Graham. Colorado gets needed help in the bullpen. Cleveland gets a young starter that is sneaky good. Somehow Graham keeps the ball in the yard in the California league. Decent deal for both sides, but I'd say Cleveland got the better end of it.
• The Giants acquired Ryan Garko from the Indians for minor leaguer Scott Barnes. The Giants acquired some offense, which they desperately needed. Garko is relatively young, so he could be more than a short-term answer. As for Cleveland, they got a promising young pitching prospect. Barnes has an ERA under 3.00 in the California League, which is remarkable. He's a bit of a fly ball pitcher, but clearly hitters struggle to square up his pitches. Barnes is also a lefty, only increasing his value. This is definitely a trade that helps both teams. The Giants have pitching galore, but need offense. The Indians are okay on offense, but really need young pitchers. Both teams win in what looks like a very fair deal on paper.
• The Red Sox acquired Brian Anderson from the White Sox for Mark Kotsay. Kotsay was designated for assignment by Boston, so the trade is not shocking. Anderson is in some ways a younger version of Kotsay, though Kotsay in his prime was a superior hitter and defender. Still, Boston turned a non-asset at this point into a player with a similar skillset they can control for a few years. Anderson didn't fit in with Chicago at this point, and I'm not sure how Kotsay will fit any better. In the end, it's probably a next-to-meaningless deal, but I'd give a slight advantage to Boston.

At this point, what's way more interesting are the potential deals. Here are my bold predictions, based mostly on my gut and a little bit on rumors. I have no inside information at all, but I enjoy intrepid guesses as much as anyone:

• Victor Martinez is not going to be traded. It sounds to me like Cleveland's ownership loves him too much. He's not that expensive for how valuable he is either. With Ryan Garko traded, Cleveland can play Victor at first base more if they really want to give Carlos Santana a chance to play in the majors. Travis Hafner is starting to look old in the DH spot too. The bottom line is that Santana and Martinez can co-exist on Cleveland's roster, so clearing room for Carlos is not an issue.
• Roy Halladay is not going to be traded. Toronto GM J.P. Ricciardi has really botched this deal in my opinion. He said way too much in the media, though Halladay is a remarkable professional and did not let it impact his performance. Additionally, if some of the rumored deals nixed are true, I think Toronto's asking price has been too low. Still, with a low asking price, they can't get something done. I don't see a team trading the farm for Roy at this point, given how expensive he is, and that he is only signed through 2010.
• Cliff Lee is going to be traded to the Rays. I doubt Tampa Bay ever seriously entered the Roy Halladay sweepstakes, given how expensive he is. There are a few too many whispers about the Rays trying to make a big splash for them to not be looking to make a deal though. I'd put my money on Lee. He is much more affordable than Halladay for the next few years, and he complements the power arms that Tampa Bay has quite nicely. My guess is that Lee lands in Tampa Bay as part of a three-way deal that sends Kazmir to the third team involved, and both Tampa and the third team sends prospects to the Indians.
• Jarrod Washburn is going to be traded to the Phillies. At this point, Philadelphia has to have some pressure to acquire a starting pitcher. They've aggressively pursued Roy Halladay, but that deal is falling through. They will (or perhaps already have) turned their attention to Cliff Lee, but I like my darkhorse Rays to nab him. That leaves the Phillies scrambling with only a few days to go to get a legitimate starting pitcher. Since they've already convinced themselves they can part with some good prospects to get a good pitcher to help them now, I think a deal between the M's and Phillies could happen quickly. Surely shortstop Jason Donald would look interesting to Jack Z. Throw in a guy like Carlos Carrasco too and that might be enough, unless a bidding war over Washburn happens between all the teams that lost out on Halladay and Lee.
• Freddy Sanchez is going to the Giants. It makes way too much sense to not happen. I don't know who San Francisco will give up, but it will happen.
• Jack Wilson will not be traded. His expiring contract is not as big of a problem as Sanchez's vesting option, so I think Pittsburgh will focus on dealing Freddy. The Pirates will run out of time to put together a deal they like to ship Wilson away.
• The Twins will acquire Orlando Cabrera. Talks have heated up, and he seems quite expendable by the A's at this point. A deal is not imminent, but the two sides are talking, and will meet in the middle by July 31.
• The Brewers will acquire Justin Duchscherer. They don't want to mortgage much of their future, and Justin should come cheap since he has been injured. He'll certainly come cheaper than Halladay or Lee, or even Jarrod Washburn at this point.
• Adrian Gonzalez isn't going anywhere, but Heath Bell is. Too many teams want relievers, and San Diego has too many holes. My sleeper team to get Bell is the Angels. They seem determined to make a deal, and while they'd like a starting pitcher, I'm sure they would like the idea of Bell and Fuentes nailing down the end of ballgames. They could offer someone like Sean Rodriguez to San Diego, or maybe even Jose Arredando. That's purely speculation though.

The deadline should be fun. I think there will be significant movement, regardless of what happens with bigger guys like Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee. Too many teams in contention have glaring holes that they can patch with trades. I'm looking forward to seeing what deals actually happen, and if any of my "educated" random guesses come to fruition.