2009 Trade Deadline Recap

Here is a look at every deal that happened yesterday on what turned out to be a busy trade deadline:

• Tigers acquire LHP Jarrod Washburn from the Mariners for LHP Luke French and LHP Mauricio Robles - I already wrote a whole post about this one. Check it out here.
• White Sox acquire RHP Jake Peavy from the Padres for LHP Clayton Richard, LHP Aaron Poreda, RHP Adam Russell, and RHP Dexter Carter - I already wrote a whole post about this one too. Check it out here.
• Red Sox acquire C Victor Martinez from the Indians for RHP Justin Masterson, LHP Nick Hagadone, and RHP Bryan Price - I am still a little surprised Victor was traded, but leave it to the Red Sox to find a way to get a deal done. Jason Varitek and David Ortiz are both old, and Victor is a good bat that will allow both aging BoSox stars to rest more. The cost was high though. People know about Masterson at this point, but the key to the deal was Nick Hagadone. He is coming back from an arm injury, but he does not look any worse for the wear. Hagadone is a tall lefty with powerful, heavy stuff. He's been getting lots of grounders and strikeouts. He probably will not be up by the end of this year, but he is not far away. Hagadone could develop into a top-of-the-rotation starter. Lastly, Bryan Price is just 22 years old, and also has a good arm. His ERA is high, but the rest of his numbers suggest that some bad luck is involved. Cleveland got three quality arms in this deal. They all have a good chance to reach the majors and stick around for a while. I'm not sure I would have given up this much for Victor if I was Boston.
• Red Sox acquire 1B Casey Kotchman from the Braves for 1B Adam LaRoche - Once Boston acquired Victor, it was clear that Adam LaRoche didn't have much of a place on the team. So, it is not surprising he got traded, but getting Kotchman in return is a surprise. He looks awfully similar to LaRoche. However, Kotchman is cheaper, which makes adding Victor Martinez's modest contract even easier. Also, Kotchman is not a free agent at the end of the year like LaRoche, and Boston is getting old. It would not surprise if Boston does not re-sign Jason Varitek at the end of this year, makes Victor Martinez their everyday catcher. That makes Kotchman the primary backup at first base, which is important because it will allow Kevin Youkilis to play third when Mike Lowell needs days off or gets hurt. As for the Braves, the move is easier to see. LaRoche has a better bat than Kotchman, and it might be nice that he is a free agent at the end of the year. They have a first baseman they like in AAA called Barbaro Canizares.
• Reds acquire 3B Scott Rolen from the Blue Jays for 3B Edwin Encarnacion, RHP Josh Roenicke, and RHP Zach Stewart - This was one of the more intriguing trades at the deadline. Both the Reds and Blue Jays are out of the playoff hunt, so the Reds acquired Rolen for the future. To get him, they gave up their current third baseman, who is younger and cheaper, and a couple pitchers. Rolen is the best player in this deal right now, but this is a puzzling trade for Cincinnati. It must have been fueled by a serious mancrush on Rolen. That wouldn't be surprising since their GM, Walt Jocketty, was the Cardinals GM when Rolen was in his prime in St. Louis. From Toronto's perspective, this is an outstanding deal. They get rid of Rolen's big contract. In the process they get Edwin Encarnacion, who I've always kind of liked. He's an underrated hitter, but his defense is horrible. Toronto has Jose Bautista playing left field, but he has experience at third. I would consider moving Bautista back to third and trying Encarnacion in the outfield, or really anywhere besides third base. On top of that, the Blue Jays got Roenicke, who should be a solid, cheap bullpen arm for several years. And, as if that was not enough, they also got Zach Stewart, who has blazed through the minor leagues. Stewart is not a premium prospect, but he could be plugged into the back end of the rotation soon, and maybe develop into a good middle-of-the-rotation type. That's a heck of a haul for a third baseman in his mid-30s making a ton of money with back problems. Sneaky good deal for Toronto.
• Rockies acquire LHP Joe Beimel from the Nationals for RHP Ryan Mattheus and RHP Robinson Fabian - Colorado wanted bullpen help, and they got about as average of a left-hander as you could imagine. In return, they gave up very little. Mattheus is somewhat old at 26, but he has heavy power stuff. His high strikeout and ground ball rates are pluses, but he's a little too hittable and a little too old to see him being much more than a marginal middle reliever at this point. As for Fabian, he's a throw-in. Nothing about him screams big league potential to me.
• Marlins acquire 1B Nick Johnson from the Nationals for LHP Aaron Thompson - The Marlins have struggled to fill third base all year, and the acquisition of Johnson will allow the team to move Jorge Cantu over to third. He also gives Florida a very good left-handed bat. In return, the Nats received a 22-year-old left-hander who is already in AA, but does not miss many bats. I am not as high on Thompson as some, but Johnson was gone at the end of the year anyway, and the move frees up room for some pieces that could be in Washington's future. It all adds up to a decent deal, though I think the Marlins got the better end of it.
• Brewers acquire RHP Claudio Vargas from the Dodgers for C Vinny Rottino - Milwaukee desperately needed starting pitching, and I doubt Vargas is who fans had in mind. He has battled hard to come back from an arm injury this year, and in limited opportunities did a solid job out of the Dodgers bullpen. He will give up more than his fair share of hits. It's hard to say much bad about the deal, because Rottino is a minor league catcher at this point. It's a no-risk, likely no reward move for the Brewers.
• Yankees acquire INF/OF Jerry Hairston Jr. from the Reds for C Chase Weems - New York gets depth on their bench with Hairston. He can play all over the field, and in particular his defense is good in the outfield. He also is a decent pinch-hitting option off the bench. In return, the Reds got 20-year-old catcher Chase Weems. He is in A ball, and is yet to hit. All in all, he looks really raw, so it is hard to say what kind of player Cincinnati got.
• Twins acquire SS Orlando Cabrera from the Athetics for SS Tyler Ladendorf - I like this deal for Minnesota. Cabrera is not the defender he used to be, but his bat has shown life. He fits the Twins style perfectly, and I see him settling into the second spot in their lineup behind Denard Span and ahead of Mauer and Morneau really nicely. He also will allow Brendan Harris to slide over to second, filling the biggest problem area on their team all year. As for Oakland, Cabrera was not coming back. He profiles as a Type A free agent, so if he was offered arbitration the A's would have received a compensatory first round draft pick if they had lost him. They must value Ladendorf more than that pick, or at least that pick with the risk of Cabrera accepting arbitration thrown in. Ladendorf is only 21, and has barely played as a professional. Oakland must have liked him when he was drafted, because based on Ladendorf's minimal pro playing time, I would have taken my chances with a draft pick.

This was a fun deadline to watch. Financial worries did not seem to hamstring teams at all in the end. Teams also did not seem willing to trust that big-money players would make it through waivers after July 31 either. With all the big names moved this year, the trade deadline certainly will impact the pennant races and the playoffs.

Trade Deadline Looms

A legitimate heat wave is sweeping the northwest, and my computer doesn't do well once it gets above about 70 degrees. With 90-100 degree heat for days on end, updating the musings has proven difficult, and will likely stay that way through the trade deadline. However, too much is going on to stay completely silent. This year's trade deadline is shaping up to be a pretty decent one. First of all, a recap of some deals over the past couple days:

• The Rockies acquired Rafael Betancourt from the Indians for minor leaguer Connor Graham. Colorado gets needed help in the bullpen. Cleveland gets a young starter that is sneaky good. Somehow Graham keeps the ball in the yard in the California league. Decent deal for both sides, but I'd say Cleveland got the better end of it.
• The Giants acquired Ryan Garko from the Indians for minor leaguer Scott Barnes. The Giants acquired some offense, which they desperately needed. Garko is relatively young, so he could be more than a short-term answer. As for Cleveland, they got a promising young pitching prospect. Barnes has an ERA under 3.00 in the California League, which is remarkable. He's a bit of a fly ball pitcher, but clearly hitters struggle to square up his pitches. Barnes is also a lefty, only increasing his value. This is definitely a trade that helps both teams. The Giants have pitching galore, but need offense. The Indians are okay on offense, but really need young pitchers. Both teams win in what looks like a very fair deal on paper.
• The Red Sox acquired Brian Anderson from the White Sox for Mark Kotsay. Kotsay was designated for assignment by Boston, so the trade is not shocking. Anderson is in some ways a younger version of Kotsay, though Kotsay in his prime was a superior hitter and defender. Still, Boston turned a non-asset at this point into a player with a similar skillset they can control for a few years. Anderson didn't fit in with Chicago at this point, and I'm not sure how Kotsay will fit any better. In the end, it's probably a next-to-meaningless deal, but I'd give a slight advantage to Boston.

At this point, what's way more interesting are the potential deals. Here are my bold predictions, based mostly on my gut and a little bit on rumors. I have no inside information at all, but I enjoy intrepid guesses as much as anyone:

• Victor Martinez is not going to be traded. It sounds to me like Cleveland's ownership loves him too much. He's not that expensive for how valuable he is either. With Ryan Garko traded, Cleveland can play Victor at first base more if they really want to give Carlos Santana a chance to play in the majors. Travis Hafner is starting to look old in the DH spot too. The bottom line is that Santana and Martinez can co-exist on Cleveland's roster, so clearing room for Carlos is not an issue.
• Roy Halladay is not going to be traded. Toronto GM J.P. Ricciardi has really botched this deal in my opinion. He said way too much in the media, though Halladay is a remarkable professional and did not let it impact his performance. Additionally, if some of the rumored deals nixed are true, I think Toronto's asking price has been too low. Still, with a low asking price, they can't get something done. I don't see a team trading the farm for Roy at this point, given how expensive he is, and that he is only signed through 2010.
• Cliff Lee is going to be traded to the Rays. I doubt Tampa Bay ever seriously entered the Roy Halladay sweepstakes, given how expensive he is. There are a few too many whispers about the Rays trying to make a big splash for them to not be looking to make a deal though. I'd put my money on Lee. He is much more affordable than Halladay for the next few years, and he complements the power arms that Tampa Bay has quite nicely. My guess is that Lee lands in Tampa Bay as part of a three-way deal that sends Kazmir to the third team involved, and both Tampa and the third team sends prospects to the Indians.
• Jarrod Washburn is going to be traded to the Phillies. At this point, Philadelphia has to have some pressure to acquire a starting pitcher. They've aggressively pursued Roy Halladay, but that deal is falling through. They will (or perhaps already have) turned their attention to Cliff Lee, but I like my darkhorse Rays to nab him. That leaves the Phillies scrambling with only a few days to go to get a legitimate starting pitcher. Since they've already convinced themselves they can part with some good prospects to get a good pitcher to help them now, I think a deal between the M's and Phillies could happen quickly. Surely shortstop Jason Donald would look interesting to Jack Z. Throw in a guy like Carlos Carrasco too and that might be enough, unless a bidding war over Washburn happens between all the teams that lost out on Halladay and Lee.
• Freddy Sanchez is going to the Giants. It makes way too much sense to not happen. I don't know who San Francisco will give up, but it will happen.
• Jack Wilson will not be traded. His expiring contract is not as big of a problem as Sanchez's vesting option, so I think Pittsburgh will focus on dealing Freddy. The Pirates will run out of time to put together a deal they like to ship Wilson away.
• The Twins will acquire Orlando Cabrera. Talks have heated up, and he seems quite expendable by the A's at this point. A deal is not imminent, but the two sides are talking, and will meet in the middle by July 31.
• The Brewers will acquire Justin Duchscherer. They don't want to mortgage much of their future, and Justin should come cheap since he has been injured. He'll certainly come cheaper than Halladay or Lee, or even Jarrod Washburn at this point.
• Adrian Gonzalez isn't going anywhere, but Heath Bell is. Too many teams want relievers, and San Diego has too many holes. My sleeper team to get Bell is the Angels. They seem determined to make a deal, and while they'd like a starting pitcher, I'm sure they would like the idea of Bell and Fuentes nailing down the end of ballgames. They could offer someone like Sean Rodriguez to San Diego, or maybe even Jose Arredando. That's purely speculation though.

The deadline should be fun. I think there will be significant movement, regardless of what happens with bigger guys like Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee. Too many teams in contention have glaring holes that they can patch with trades. I'm looking forward to seeing what deals actually happen, and if any of my "educated" random guesses come to fruition.

Angels Making News

I am not a fan of the Angels, but I cannot accuse them of resting on their laurels. Despite being a new GM taking over a team that had a very successful 2007 campaign, Tony Reagins has made a couple surprising moves that have re-shaped the Angels' roster. To start with, he traded away Gold Glove shortstop Orlando Cabrera (79) to the White Sox for starting pitcher Jon Garland (78). Cabrera was a key piece to the top of the Angels order, as well as the anchor of the infield defense, and in return the Angels received a decent number three starter, who will likely be the fourth starter on their strong staff. This is a great deal for the White Sox, but I probably would not have done it if I were in charge of the Angels. Garland's contract is bigger than Cabrera's, and I do not think he improves their staff much, since it was already strong. However, Maicer Izuris (79) could replace Cabrera surprisingly well if given the chance, so it is hardly a bad trade.

However, the Angels made a much bigger splash late Wednesday night when they signed Torii Hunter (81) to a 5-year, $90 million deal. This is the reported value, and if it is correct the deal is ludicrous. My pay projector had Hunter valued at $9.3 million per season in this market, which suggests a 5-year contract for him should have been worth a total of around $46.5 million. Admittedly, my ranking system does not account for defense, and Hunter's is spectacular, so paying more than my projection is well within reason. However, there is no way Hunter's defense is worth an extra $43.5 million. Torii Hunter ended up with a deal as big as Ichiro's, and I'll take Ichiro any day. This deal apparently fell into place after only about a day of negotiations, and I can see why. There's no way Torii Hunter is worth $18 million a year, and I am sure Torii (or at least his agent) knows that.

What makes the Hunter deal even more perplexing to me is that it does not improve the Angels very much. Hunter will be the new starting center fielder, and Garret Anderson (81), Vladimir Guerrero (91), and Gary Matthews Jr. (75) will slide around the corner outfield slots and DH. Without a doubt, Torii is a noticable upgrade over Matthews, both offensively and defensively, but where does Reggie Willits (79) fit in now? I cannot believe that the Angels are not in love with Willits. He slaps the ball all over the ballpark with virtually no power, and then steals bases at will. He is only 26 years old too, 6 years younger than Hunter. Reggie was almost as good of an offensive player as Torii last year; does it not seem plausible that he could be as good as Hunter this year, or maybe even better?

As a Mariners fan, it is unnerving watching the Angels sign one of the best free agents available to a massive contract, but really they are not that much better of a team today than they were a week ago. They clearly have a surplus of outfielders now, and given how aggressive Reagins has been in the offseason thus far, I doubt the Angels are done. I still think they have their eyes on Miguel Cabrera (88). With the addition of Hunter, Willits is expendable, and with the additon of Garland, guys like Joe Saunders (72) and Nick Adenhart (58/83) should be easier to part with as well. If I were the Angels, I would offer Erick Aybar, Reggie Willits, and Nick Adenhart to the Marlins for Miguel Cabrera and see what they would say. All of those guys are young, Aybar could immediately replace Cabrera, Willits could immediately fill their gaping hole in center field, and Adenhart is considered one of the brighter pitching prospects in the game (though I'm not quite as sold on him as most are). If that's not enough, I would switch in Maicer Izturis for Aybar, and would be willing to add Ervin Santana (67) if needed.

I really hope that my theoretical trade between the Angels and Marlins does not happen, because all of a sudden the Angels would be monsters. Their lineup would look something like this (at least if I put it together):

1. Chone Figgins
2. Howie Kendrick
3. Vladimir Guerrero
4. Miguel Cabrera
5. Casey Kotchman
6. Torii Hunter
7. Garret Anderson
8. Gary Matthews Jr.
9. Mike Napoli

That would be one of the best lineups in baseball. There is good power, speed, and average throughout, with two superstars in the middle. It is not far-fetched that all of the top six in that lineup could be all-stars. If that was not enough, here is their starting staff:

1. John Lackey
2. Kelvim Escobar
3. Jered Weaver
4. Jon Garland
5. Joe Saunders

Their bullpen would be awfully strong too, with Justin Speier, Scot Shields, and Francisco Rodriguez anchoring the final couple innings. All in all, the Angels are pretty good right now, but it is frightening how close they may be to domination. The theoretical trade with the Marlins is not outlandish, and it looks like Reagins has the guts and tenacity needed to make such a deal. For now, I think the Angels have spent a bunch of money unnecessarily for a marginal gain. But, they have set themselves up to make an epic deal that could catapult them to World Series favorite.