Quantitative Baseball

Finally, my baseball post! I’ve been mulling this one in my head for quite some time, trying to figure out the best way to tackle it. I’m tired of thinking about the right way to go about it because it is rather broad.

Over Christmas I set out to find a way through statistics to rate starting pitchers on a one to five scale, with one being an ace and five being a number five starter. I toyed with stats for about a week and devised a formula that appeared to be very effective. Then, I took the formula and tweaked it again, this time figuring out how to incorporate relief pitchers on the same scale. An average relief pitcher rates around a six on the scale, which does make sense since most relievers are still pitchers who were not good enough to make the starting rotation. However, elite relievers do score as high as many quality starters.

With a pitching formula having been devised, I set out to make a formula for position players to accompany it. This was tricky because, while I obviously used completely different statistics, I wanted the results to correlate with the one to five scale I had already established with the pitchers. This took a little bit of time.

However, once I was satisfied with both formulas, I took the next step – trying to figure out a player’s dollar value on the open market. To do this I used 2007 contract figures for hundreds of players that have signed free agent deals (in other words I did not consider arbitration-eligible players or players too inexperienced to even be arbitration eligible).

So, to quickly recap, I came up with two formulas over Christmas break, one for pitchers and one for hitters, but they are supposed to produce results that can be directly compared (this means a hitter valued at 2.5 is just as good as a pitcher valued at 2.5). Then, with these formulas, I project the player’s value on the open market. If you want to know the exact formulas, e-mail me and I’ll be glad to share them with you. However, they are going to look like a mess if I stick them in this post and experience has taught me that most people gloss over the formulas and go straight to the results.

Though my study is rather empirical, the formulas I have come up with show lots of promise as being an effective tool to evaluate players. According to them the best hitter in baseball is Albert Pujols (-0.1 rating) and the best pitcher is Johan Santana (0.5). Only seven pitchers rated as aces in 2006 (1.5 or lower on the scale, since anything below 1.5 would round down to 1). They were Santana, Brandon Webb, Chris Carpenter, Francisco Liriano, C.C. Sabathia, Roy Halladay, and Roy Oswalt. Most people would agree all of these pitchers are among baseball’s finest.

As far as money goes, one of the more interesting cases is Barry Bonds. He will earn $16 million this year (if his contract is ever finalized) and, based solely on his numbers last year and including injuries his rating is 1.0 – and his value on the open market based on my formula is $16.75 million.

Looking at the Mariners, Ichiro was their best offensive player (2.4) with Raul Ibanez a fairly close second (2.9). For those on the “Richie Sexson and Adrian Beltre are overpaid” bandwagon, the formula backs that up. Sexson should make around $5.2 million and Beltre about $5 million. They will make $14 million and $11.5 million next year, respectively.

Like I said, if you want to know more about the formulas, e-mail me. I plan to use them with virtually all of my baseball analysis. Though I derived them empirically the results are promising.

Off-Season Dreaming 2.0

The off-season has really started to heat up since my first off-season post and with the new developments, I felt like revising my plan for the Mariners. Here is what I propose now:

MOVE 1: As part of a three-way deal, Mariners send 1B Richie Sexson to the Yankees, SP Joel Pineiro and 1B Ben Broussard to the Nationals, and acquire 1B Nick Johnson from the Nationals. The Yankees send SP Sean Henn and RP T.J. Beam to the Nationals in the deal as well – The Yankees are looking for a full-time first baseman that bats right-handed. Richie Sexson is clearly better than any option the Yankees could sign in free agency, so they would have to listen if the Mariners offered him. This deal makes sense for the Nationals too because they get a serviceable replacement for Nick Johnson in Ben Broussard at a great price, and they also add three pitchers that could all make their major-league squad. As for the Mariners, they dump payroll and acquire Nick Johnson, who should be a perfect fit for Safeco.

MOVE 2: Mariners trade RP Julio Mateo, RP Emiliano Fruto, and OF Jeremy Reed to the Florida Marlins for SP Yusmeiro Petit – The Marlins are looking for veteran relief help and a centerfielder at the winter meetings, and appear poised to give up a young starting pitcher to fill their needs. So, with this deal the M’s get a young starting pitcher that can come in and compete for a spot in the rotation immediately and the Marlins fill both holes. I’m not convinced this package is enough to net Petit though. I would be willing to take Renyel Pinto instead of Petit in the trade, or add another piece (such as Michael Garciaparra, Bryan LaHair, Greg Dobbs, et al) to make this trade happen. The whole deal would hinge on how much the Marlins like Jeremy Reed.

MOVE 3: Mariners sign DH Barry Bonds, SP Tomo Ohka, C Rod Barajas, and 1B Eduardo Perez – My guess is signing all of these free agents would take roughly $20 million, which the Mariners should have available even if they pick up as much as half of Richie Sexson’s remaining contract in my proposed moves. The most controversial signing is Barry Bonds obviously, but his bat would add an incredible presence to the lineup. A less risky (and even cheaper) option would be Luis Gonzalez and I would be content with that. However, with these deals I proposed the Mariners could give Bonds the $10 million he wants and it would not blow the budget. It is something to think about.

So, with these moves the 2007 Mariners would look something like this:

STARTING LINEUP
Ichiro, CF
Chris Snelling, RF
Nick Johnson, 1B
Barry Bonds, DH
Adrian Beltre, 3B
Raul Ibanez, LF
Kenji Johjima, C
Jose Lopez, 2B
Yuniesky Betancourt, SS

BENCH
Eduardo Perez
Greg Dobbs
Mike Morse
Rod Barajas
Willie Bloomquist

STARTING ROTATION
Jarrod Washburn
Felix Hernandez
Tomo Ohka
Cha-Seung Baek
Yusmeiro Petit

BULLPEN
Jake Woods
Eric O’Flaherty
Jon Huber
George Sherrill
Rafael Soriano
J.J. Putz

Once again, the lineup looks much improved over last year’s. Just look at Raul Ibanez, the big hitter from last year, dropping to sixth in the lineup. I love the idea of three extremely patient hitters like Snelling, Johnson, and Bonds batting behind Ichiro. This proposed starting rotation is not stellar, but it is better than the one I imagined in my first “Off-Season Dreaming” especially since Beak, Petit, and of course King Felix are all young. This scenario is even less far-fetched than my first plan too since all of these moves are based on reports of what other teams are looking for. The Mariners have been losers in the off-season so far, but there is certainly still hope.

Off-Season Dreaming

I did not think I would write a post with a bunch of hypothetical moves that the Mariners could make to save themselves, but after a conversation much too late a couple nights ago with a friend of mine I have to. He mentioned a few guys he would like to see the Mariners acquire and, after postulating a few scenarios, we came up with an interesting sequence of events. Here are three moves that would significantly alter the Mariners that are not far-fetched:

MOVE 1- Seattle Mariners trade Ben Broussard, Jeremy Reed, Joel Pineiro, and Wladimir Balentien to the Washington Nationals for Nick Johnson – This deal makes sense for the Mariners for a couple of reasons. First of all, the trade leaves Seattle with multiple spots open on the 40-man roster, which they need to have to sign free agents. More importantly though, this move nets a vastly underrated hitter in Nick Johnson. Each of the past two years Johnson has had a batting average of around .290 with an on-base percentage over .400 and in 2006 he hit a whopping 46 doubles to go along with 23 home runs. Moreover, he accumulated these numbers in pitcher-friendly RFK stadium and is only 27 years old, meaning he is just entering his prime. The trade also makes sense for the Nationals because they receive a first baseman who can replace Johnson’s average and home runs at a cheaper price and they also gain two promising young outfielders, plus a starting pitcher. Considering all the holes the Nationals have to fill they would have to consider this deal.

MOVE 2 - Seattle Mariners trade 1B Richie Sexson, RP Emiliano Fruto, and RP Julio Mateo to the San Francisco Giants for RP Armando Benitez, SP Pat Misch, and RP Billy Sadler – With Nick Johnson having been acquired, Richie Sexson becomes expendable and in this market his $14 million price tag for two years does not look terrible. The Giants are yet another team with several holes and tons of money to spend. This deal makes sense for San Francisco because they add a power bat to the middle of their lineup, two arms to their bullpen, and even get rid of Armando Benitez’s contract. The Mariners add some needed depth to their pitching staff but more importantly gain a bunch of money to spend, roughly $8 million in this deal. In the first move the Mariners also gained $3.3 million which, if Gil Meche’s $3.7 million earned last year is included, brings the Mariners to $15 million under the 2006 payroll. This clears the way for…

MOVE 3 – Seattle Mariners sign OF J.D. Drew – Like Nick Johnson, J.D. Drew sports a terrific on-base percentage and has all the tools in the world to become an elite offensive player. Drew is often criticized of being lazy and soft, but even if he puts up the numbers he has in the past he would be a huge addition to the Mariners lineup.

MOVE 4 – Seattle Mariners sign SP Tomo Ohka – Another beautiful feature of the first three moves is that no payroll was added, meaning the Mariners should still have enough money to add a decent starter like they are currently planning to do. Ohka is nothing special, but he is solid and would not break the bank.

With these four moves the 2007 Mariners would look something like this:

STARTING LINEUP
Ichiro, CF
Chris Snelling, LF
J.D. Drew, RF
Nick Johnson, 1B
Adrian Beltre, 3B
Raul Ibanez, DH
Kenji Johjima, C
Jose Lopez, 2B
Yuniesky Betancourt, SS

BENCH
Eduardo Perez
Greg Dobbs
Mike Morse
Willie Bloomquist
Rene Rivera

STARTING ROTATION
Jarrod Washburn
Felix Hernandez
Tomo Ohka
Jake Woods
Cha-Seung Baek

BULLPEN
Armando Benitez
Eric O’Flaherty
Billy Sadler
George Sherrill
Rafael Soriano
J.J. Putz

The starting staff and middle relief are shaky thanks to my proposed moves, but I thinking signing an offensive player like J.D. Drew in his prime is better than overpaying for Jason Schmidt or Barry Zito, both of whom may have already had their best years. Plus, the lineup looks fantastic. Ichiro could swing away to his heart’s content because behind him are three guys who will milk everything they can out of counts. The lineup also features five left-handed hitters, which suits Safeco Field very nicely. It does start with four left-handed hitters in a row, but that does not concern me greatly because Ichiro and Nick Johnson have both proven they can hit southpaws just as well, if not better, than right-handers. J.D. Drew’s three-year splits indicate that he can handle left-handers just fine as well. Even though the pitching staff would have everyone nervous, my moves do give the M’s some pitching depth in case of injuries/ineffectiveness.

This hypothetical team has flaws, but it is better than the 2006 M’s and also gives the team more flexibility in the future and even at the 2007 trading deadline (if Adam Jones is ready, the M’s could consider trading Ichiro). I would be excited if the Mariners off-season ended up emulating this.