Dutch Duo

On Friday, the Netherlands passed Japan and Canada to become the most frequent international visitor to my blog. I'm not entirely convinced it isn't a counting error by Blogger, because I got 54 hits from the nation simultaneously, without any data about referring links or posts visited.

But whatever. I'll take what I can get, and regardless, a noticeable amount of my international traffic comes from the Netherlands. In celebration, I couldn't think of a better thing than to do a Netherlands post.

Balentien Shipped To Reds

It's been a fast and furious morning to say the least. The Cliff Lee deal will get the national publicity, but nobody is busier than the Mariners right now. Word just broke that Wladimir Balentien has been traded to the Reds for Robert Manuel.

It was only a matter of time before Balentien got traded once he was designated for assignment. This is hardly a shocking deal. Manuel is a 26-year-old right-handed reliever with decent numbers. Of particular note is how few home runs he has given up, despite being a fly-ball pitcher. Nothing special, but a guy that should be able to get the job done in middle relief if needed.

The most remarkable part of this deal is that it happened today. I am impressed that Jack Z can juggle so much at once and make things happen. That's two trades and one draft signing in roughly three hours. A total of 10 players are involved in the three transactions. Madness.

Trio of Moves: Top Prospect Up, Pair DFAd

I was just ahead of the buzz when I wrote about Michael Saunders a little over a week ago. My opinion has not changed, but what has changed is that he is the new starting left fielder for the Mariners. Saunders got called up today, will start in left field, and to make room Wladimir Balentien was designated for assignment.

I won't spend time talking about Saunders since I already discussed him in depth not too long ago. Since writing about him he has been on a tear. His bat is ready for a new challenge, but I'm still worried about what happens if/when he struggles and needs to adjust. Like I said previously, every indication is that Saunders will be able to adjust, but how will the Mariners fare as he goes through those adjustments? I think he has to perform well from day one for this team to stay in contention, and that's a lot to ask from a youngster making his major league debut today.

With that said, Saunders is clearly an upgrade over Wladimir Balentien. He can't hit breaking stuff, and he can't lay off of it either. It's frustrating to watch, because every now and then he shows off his prodigious power. Balentien is the second Mariner in as many days to get DFA'd, joining Roy Corcoran. Let's take a quick look at these two guys all of a sudden flapping in the wind.

A player designated for assignment must be traded, released, or re-assigned to the minor leagues by their team within 10 days of being designated. Additionally, once DFA'd, a player is subject to waivers. That means other teams will have a chance to claim them before they can be released or sent to the minors. Ask Jamie Burke about the process. He's a pro - he's gone through it twice this year. For some players (like Burke), the process is largely ceremonial. Once no team claims a player that has been designated for assignment, it's pretty much just like sending a player down to the minors. The only difference is that the player is no longer on the 40-man roster either, meaning they have to be put back on it to come back up to the majors.

The last paragraph is the extended way of saying both Corcoran and Balentien must be passed on by every other team in major league baseball to get sent to Tacoma. Some think Roy will make it through, but I have my doubts. Too many teams are looking for bullpen arms, and Corcoran would be a cheap, risk-free option coming off a good 2008 campaign, and a string of solid outings recently. If I had to hazard a guess, I would pick the Twins. My dark horse would be the Orioles though. Adding Corcoran might make it easier for them to ship away Danys Baez or George Sherrill, though teams having fire sales aren't usually all that worried about replacements. If Corcoran is not traded before the deadline, expect him to get assigned to Tacoma.

Balentien almost certainly will not make it through waivers. He's too young with too much power for some bad team to not take a chance on him. I would be surprised if he is not traded within the next week. The new M's dumping ground, the Kansas City Royals, could be where Wladimir ends up. If not there, I'd be surprised if he got past the Padres on waivers.

Promoting Michael Saunders is the riskiest move to date by the new regime. I'm curious to hear from both Wakamatsu and Z on it. Langerhans was doing fine in left field. He was giving the M's exactly what they could expect.

So, why Michael Saunders, and why now? Is this a move to try to bolster the offense the rest of the way? Or is this a little bit more about getting Michael's growing pains out of the way now so he can hit the ground running in 2010? It's probably a bit of both, but I want to hear what Wak and Z have to say about it.

Spring Training Games Underway

I do not think a player can be properly evaluated in two games, and I also believe spring training statistics tend to be given too much consideration in decision-making. However, a player that performs remarkably well cannot help but grab the eye of a coaching staff, and it does make cutting them a little more difficult. Just two games into the spring training "season," the Mariners already have a couple of interesting players standing out:

• Mike Morse, INF/OF, (69/75) - Signing Miguel Cairo (70/68) practically spelled the end of Morse's career in Seattle (which I am not thrilled about). However, Mike is off to a rapid start in the Cactus League, and if he keeps it up, he may just stick around. The odds are still stacked against him, but I think the M's will have a hard time cutting him loose on waivers for nothing if he has a killer spring.
• Wladimir Balentien, OF, (70/81) - John McLaren has already anointed Brad Wilkerson (69/68) the starter in right field, and though he is off to a nice start, Balentien must have turned some heads with his multi-homer game. I was hoping for at least an open competition between Balentien and Wilkerson for the job, and so maybe it will become a competition if Wlad impales the ball for the better part of March.

Realistically, individual performances do not matter much in spring training, and considering that McLaren has already named virtually the entire opening day roster, he seems to not put much in spring training performances either. However, McLaren has laid out a number of goals for the team this year, and those changes should show up in spring training numbers:

• For pitchers, their has been a tremendous emphasis on pitching inside. So far, M's pitchers have hit three batters this spring, and I would expect to see many more hit batters if the coaching staff continues to drive it home to every member of the staff. I am sure nobody on the coaching staff is telling M's pitchers to hit batters, but I doubt they frowned when to Padres were plunked on Sunday.
• On the basepaths, McLaren wants to be much more aggressive, and has gone as far as saying he thinks that Ichiro can steal 80 bases, and Yuniesky Betancourt 40. I am not sure which prediction is more ridiculous, but on Saturday the M's stole four bases as a team, and on Friday Brian LaHair inexplicable tried to steal second and was thrown out by a mile. If the Mariners do not run wild in spring training, they certainly will not in the regular season, so this bears watching.
• Jeff Pentland has stated that he is working with M's hitters on being more selective at the plate in hopes of working pitchers more, and getting a few better pitches to hit. In theory, this should lead to more walks and higher pitch counts. In the first couple games the hitters have been drawing some walks, though that could be a product of wild pitchers as much as disciplined pitch selection at this point. Once again, if hitters are not going to take pitches when statistics do not matter, the odds of them taking more pitches when games count is extremely slim.

It is really hard to find any sort of intrigue this spring training because McLaren has made so many decisions already. I do not think that is necessarily a bad thing, especially looking at this year's team, but it does take some of the wind out of Spring Training's sails. There still are a few things to look at, but ultimately it is just nice to hear the sweet sounds of baseball again.

Bedard Rumors Continue to Swirl

Rumors concerning the Mariners acquiring SP Erik Bedard (96/94) from the Orioles refuse to die. The latest I have seen is that the M's are willing to part ways with OF Adam Jones (73/85) and RP George Sherrill (86/83), but the Orioles want in addition to those two either SP Brandon Morrow (75/81) or SS Carlos Triunfel (43/85). Currently, it appears the Mariners would prefer to include Triunfel between the two.

Jones, Sherrill, and Triunfel is an awfully high price to pay for any player. Erik Bedard was incredible last year (the only pitcher better than him last year according to my formula was Jake Peavy), but what he is actually worth needs to be examined further. Looking at his numbers, he exploded last year, and I doubt he will ever have a better year despite the fact he is only 28 years old. In fact, I really do not think he will reach the 94 rating my rating system projects for him next year. That is not to say Bedard will not be a great pitcher in the future, but to expect him to duplicate his 2007 output for the next several seasons is intrepid, to put it nicely. Taking Bedard's last three seasons and plugging them into my rating formula (with a slight injury adjustment), his rating drops to 86, with an expected decay to 85. That means Bedard is still a great pitcher, but the difference between a 96 rating and an 86 is significant.

After taking a closer look at Bedard, I think offering Jones and Sherrill for him is a fair deal. Baltimore needs a center fielder, and Jones fits that need perfectly, especially because he could become the black superstar that connects with the Baltimore community, which the Orioles covet badly. Though the Orioles would not receive a starter to replace Bedard in the trade, they added depth in the off-season by acquiring SP Troy Patton (61/78) and Matt Albers (59/63) in the Tejada trade, both of whom the team considers rotation candidates (I'm not as sold on them, but all that matters is if Baltimore believes in them). If they really wanted a starter, I would be willing to offer either Carlos Silva (75/74), Miguel Batista (76/72), or Jarrod Washburn (74/72), and get any one of those contracts off the books while making room in the rotation for Morrow. I doubt the Orioles would be interested in one of those three though.

As for the Mariners, Bedard would team with Felix Hernandez (83/90) and the mediocre, but effective, trio of Batista, Silva , and Washburn to turn the starting rotation into a decent, if not borderline formidable, group. Furthermore, though Sherrill would be missed in the bullpen, the M's have still have two very good bullpen lefties in Eric O'Flaherty (78/83) and Ryan Rowland-Smith (73/77), and Morrow would be pitching in the later innings as well. Adam Jones would also be missed, but Wladimir Balentien (70/80) is not a bad option, and there have been rumors the Mariners would sign Luis Gonzalez (79/74) if they were to trade Jones. So, it is not as if there would be a giant void in the outfield if Jones were to be traded, making it reasonable to say the upgrade Bedard brings to the starting rotation more than counteracts the loss of Jones in the outfield.

Still, it looks like the Orioles are not interested in only acquiring Jones and Sherrill for Bedard, and I would not be willing to offer much more for that. I would be willing to include INF Mike Morse (69/75) because there is no longer room for him on the 25-man roster thanks to INF Miguel Cairo (70/68), and Baltimore would be smart to take a look at Morse because he could fill their hole at shortstop, but I doubt that would be enough either. Bedard would be a great addition to the Mariners, but Baltimore's asking price is just a little too steep.

Quick Look at September Call-Ups

With September comes expanded rosters, and the Mariners plan to take advantage of it. Yesterday, they announced that they planned to call up a total of 10 players. Five of them are part of the ballclub now, and four more will join it when the AAA season ends on Tuesday (John Parrish was supposed to be called up today but wasn't, so it is unclear what the Mariners are planning to do with him now). Here is a quick look at the players the Mariners are adding, and the impact of the moves:

CALLED UP TODAY

• UT Mike Morse (69) - Morse had a knee injury that kept him out for a couple months, but he when healthy he was productive. For as big of a man as he is, he still hasn't flashed much power, though he has shown the ability to hit for average both in AAA and the major leagues. Ultimately, Morse's greatest value to the team is his defensive versatility, and he'll likely see a few at-bats as a right-handed pinch-hitter.
• OF Charlton Jimerson (56) - With 25 home runs and 35 steals in the minors this year, Jimerson possesses a nice power/speed combo. However, his power is wiped out by an obscene number of strikeouts - 139 in 387 at-bats to be exact. He'll be the designated pinch-runner, a role that he should thrive in.
• C Rob Johnson (62/73) - The Mariners have long been high on Johnson, and though he likely won't play much he should make his major league debut sometime in the next month. Johnson's strength is his defense, and his hitting has developed some. Still, he will be the third-string catcher, so he will see little playing time.
• LHP Ryan Feierabend (59/67) - Since struggling mightily in the majors, Ryan has settled down and ended up having a solid year in Tacoma. Still, he's not ready for a pivotal role on this team. He should take over mop-up duty in any potential blow-outs down the stretch, freeing up Ryan Rowland-Smith for more important innings.
• RHP Sean White (68) - The Rule Five draft pick is back, and he is the biggest addition of the guys called up today. White will join Feierabend as a mop-up man, though he is a better pitcher than Ryan right now. The two of them should ease concerns of burning out the bullpen.

GETTING CALLED UP TUESDAY

• OF Jeremy Reed (68) - To a certain extent Reed has re-discovered the stroke that once made him a top prospect. He should be a good left-handed pinch-hitting option off the bench. McLaren may also use him as a defensive replacement as well, but that would be a mistake if he picks Reed over Adam Jones in any situation.
• OF Wladimir Balentien (71/83) - It will be interesting to see what the Mariners do with Balentien once he is called up. Wladimir is yet to make his major league debut, but he is the best player the M's are calling up. Balentien's greatest strength is a powerful bat, though he also has underrated speed. He has started to tap into his power potential thanks to remarkably improved plate discipline the last couple years. The odds are Wladimir will get very little playing time, though he should share pinch-hitting duties with fellow call-ups Mike Morse and Jeremy Reed.
• INF Nick Green (69) - Green has been tearing the cover off the ball ever since joining the Rainiers. Nothing about the rest of his career says he can maintain the type of hitting he has shown, but maybe this is just his year. Green can play around the infield, though his best position is second base, which has value on this team given Jose Lopez's struggles.
• C Jeff Clement (71/83) - Clement might be even more interesting to watch than Balentien in September. The former first-round pick is yet to make his major league debut, but after a slow start he really heated up. Thanks to his patience and power, he should see some pinch-hitting opportunities. Clement bats left-handed, but he absolutely crushed left-handed pitching. Hopefully McLaren realizes that he is much better against southpaws.
• LHP John Parrish (64) - When the Mariners traded for Parrish he had a 70 rating, but his rating has since dropped significantly despite very few innings pitched. He was supposed to be called up today, so I'm simply guessing that he will eventually be called up. Parrish should not be anything other than another mop-up man, but he is a better pitcher than he has shown in Seattle.

To make room on the 40-man roster for a number of these players, the following players had to be removed from it. They all are still part of the Mariners organization, but there is now a chance they could lose all of them (to put a complicated process way too simply):

• OF Mike Wilson (44/63) - Wilson got off to a horrible start, and though he had a much better second half, it still wasn't that impressive. He has great power, but struggles to make contact.
• INF Oswaldo Navarro (57/67) - Oswaldo looks like a light-hitting, decent-fielding shortstop at best. I don't know how he ever got on the 40-man roster to begin with.
• C Rene Rivera (41/59) - All I'll say is that I'm very glad the Mariners have Jamie Burke, because another year of watching Rene Rivera flail at the baseball like he's blindfolded was going to be painful. Rivera has inexplicably regressed as a hitter the last couple years to the point that he is not a viable option in the majors. How he stayed on the 40-man this long nobody will ever know.
• LHP Jake Woods (50) - After a pleasantly surprising season out of the bullpen last year, Woods has had a not-so-pleasantly surprising disaster of a season in Tacoma. Woods probably is not as good as he pitched in 2006, but also not as bad as he was this season. Still, given all the lefties the Mariners have on the roster, this was a logical move.

The Mariners September call-ups could actually be major difference-makers down the stretch. For the most part they won't be pitching or hitting in crucial situations, but they will allow McLaren to rest important contributors in non-crucial situations. It will allow important players to have days off that they otherwise would not get, especially in the bullpen. That will be especially valuable given how few days off the Mariners have the rest of the way.

Prospects Looking At Promotions

Though the unofficial halfway mark for the MLB, the All-Star Break, is still a month away, minor league teams are about halfway through their seasons now. Since the low level leagues divide the season into two halves, conveniently around the draft, it's fairly typical to see players who have done quite well so far this year to get promoted throughout the system. So, here's a look at some Mariners prospects that are most likely to get promoted:

WISCONSIN (A)
Andrew Barb, RP - Barb, acquired in the Jamie Moyer trade, has served as the closer for the TimberRattlers and he's been sensational, with a sub-1.00 WHIP and striking out well over a batter an inning. Like Kantakevich, he has nothing more to prove at this level.

Joseph Kantakevich, RP - Another product of last year's draft class, Kantakevich has done everything that can be asked of a reliever, even pitching multiple innings at times. He's got nothing left to prove at this level.

Kyle Parker, SP - Parker, a UW product, was drafted last year and so far has stood out, thanks to a dazzling whip hovering around 1.00. Nothing else is especially great about his numbers, but especially given how weak the High Desert staff has been, he's done enough to deserve a promotion to see what he can do. The lower minor league levels are going to have to be cleared out some anyway to make room for all the pitchers drafted this year.

HIGH DESERT (A-Advanced)
Casey Craig, OF - Craig has served primarily as High Desert's leadoff hitter, and he's done a marvelous job. He has shown good speed, a little power, but most impressively great plate discipline and the ability to hit for average. Craig has been on a tear the last couple weeks and has raised his batting average to almost .350 on the season. Though he's playing in a very hitter-friendly park, plate discipline and speed are not impacted by friendly confines.

Michael Saunders, OF - Saunders is on pace for a 20-homer, 40-steals year, all while hitting .300 with an OBP around .400. As with Craig, his stats are buoyed by the hitter's paradise he plays his home games in, but at the same time nobody else on the ballclub has flashed power and speed like Saunders.

Adam Moore, C - I wasn't happy when the M's drafted yet another catcher last year, but that guy turned out to be this guy, Adam Moore. All Moore has done is flash 30-homer potential with good hitting and plate discipline. He looks like a good, old-fashioned slugger. However, his power numbers could be largely a product of the ballpark he plays in. Still, I'd gladly demote current Diamond Jaxx backstop Rene Rivera to High Desert to see if Moore could bat better than .200 with just a hint of power in AA.

WEST TENNESSEE (AA)
Travis Chick, SP - Chick got hammered in a brief stint in Tacoma, but he's flat-out dominated AA in a couple outings. He's not getting challenged right now, so it's time to move him to Tacoma.

Brent Johnson, OF - Johnson has quietly hit well at all levels, and he's continued that trend at West Tennessee. He hasn't shown much power, but he can definitely hit. He's right on the bubble, but I would push him to Tacoma to make more room for Saunders and Craig. Still, there's a playing time issue in Tacoma too, thanks to Jeremy Reed, Adam Jones, and Wladimir Balentien.

TACOMA (AAA)
Adam Jones, OF - The improvement Adam Jones has made in the last two and a half years is astounding, and he continues to get better seemingly every day. His strikeout rate is still worrisome, but he's batting .330 with a ton of extra base hits. On top of that, he's developing into an excellent defensive player. If the M's could find a decent deal for Jose Guillen, I would trade him, move Ichiro back to right field, and hand center over to Adam Jones. Jones has as much power as Guillen, and his defense is much better at this point.

Mike Morse, IF - It could be argued that Morse isn't a prospect anymore, but what can't be argued is that Morse is hitting very well for the Rainiers right now, and his versatility makes him even more enticing as a bench player for the M's right now. If I were in charge, I would bring up Morse and send down Bloomquist, because little versatility is lost and a legitimate right-handed pinch-hitter is gained. Jason Ellison could become the main pinch-runner, and maybe even get to play a little more in the outfield too.

Wladimir Balentien, OF - Balentien seems to have put power and discipline together this year for the very first time. Two years ago, he had lots of power with few walks, and last year lots of walks but diminished power. Maybe Wladimir is a one-year wonder, but there's plenty of reason to believe this is simply him developing. What's also overlooked is his versatility (he can play all three outfield positions), and his speed (he's on pace for over 20 steals this year). Much has been made about his strikeouts, but he's actually struck out less than the more-touted Adam Jones. It could even be argued that Balentien is more major-league ready than Jones at this point. I'd consider moving Raul to first base full time, benching Sexson, and seeing what Balentien can do. However, more realistically, Balentien will compete for a spot with the Mariners next year.

Jorge Campillo, SP - Though it was Ryan Feierabend that got called up for a few spot starts this year, it's Campillo that has been the best pitcher on the Rainiers staff all year long. He's no ace, but he doesn't give up many home runs, and he could be a reliable starter at the back end of the rotation right now. The only problem is that Campillo is not on the 40-man roster, which prohibits him from being called up without someone already on the 40-man getting released. However, if the M's don't protect Jorge somehow, I think someone will be smart enough to purchase his contract and give him a chance.

Off-Season Dreaming

I did not think I would write a post with a bunch of hypothetical moves that the Mariners could make to save themselves, but after a conversation much too late a couple nights ago with a friend of mine I have to. He mentioned a few guys he would like to see the Mariners acquire and, after postulating a few scenarios, we came up with an interesting sequence of events. Here are three moves that would significantly alter the Mariners that are not far-fetched:

MOVE 1- Seattle Mariners trade Ben Broussard, Jeremy Reed, Joel Pineiro, and Wladimir Balentien to the Washington Nationals for Nick Johnson – This deal makes sense for the Mariners for a couple of reasons. First of all, the trade leaves Seattle with multiple spots open on the 40-man roster, which they need to have to sign free agents. More importantly though, this move nets a vastly underrated hitter in Nick Johnson. Each of the past two years Johnson has had a batting average of around .290 with an on-base percentage over .400 and in 2006 he hit a whopping 46 doubles to go along with 23 home runs. Moreover, he accumulated these numbers in pitcher-friendly RFK stadium and is only 27 years old, meaning he is just entering his prime. The trade also makes sense for the Nationals because they receive a first baseman who can replace Johnson’s average and home runs at a cheaper price and they also gain two promising young outfielders, plus a starting pitcher. Considering all the holes the Nationals have to fill they would have to consider this deal.

MOVE 2 - Seattle Mariners trade 1B Richie Sexson, RP Emiliano Fruto, and RP Julio Mateo to the San Francisco Giants for RP Armando Benitez, SP Pat Misch, and RP Billy Sadler – With Nick Johnson having been acquired, Richie Sexson becomes expendable and in this market his $14 million price tag for two years does not look terrible. The Giants are yet another team with several holes and tons of money to spend. This deal makes sense for San Francisco because they add a power bat to the middle of their lineup, two arms to their bullpen, and even get rid of Armando Benitez’s contract. The Mariners add some needed depth to their pitching staff but more importantly gain a bunch of money to spend, roughly $8 million in this deal. In the first move the Mariners also gained $3.3 million which, if Gil Meche’s $3.7 million earned last year is included, brings the Mariners to $15 million under the 2006 payroll. This clears the way for…

MOVE 3 – Seattle Mariners sign OF J.D. Drew – Like Nick Johnson, J.D. Drew sports a terrific on-base percentage and has all the tools in the world to become an elite offensive player. Drew is often criticized of being lazy and soft, but even if he puts up the numbers he has in the past he would be a huge addition to the Mariners lineup.

MOVE 4 – Seattle Mariners sign SP Tomo Ohka – Another beautiful feature of the first three moves is that no payroll was added, meaning the Mariners should still have enough money to add a decent starter like they are currently planning to do. Ohka is nothing special, but he is solid and would not break the bank.

With these four moves the 2007 Mariners would look something like this:

STARTING LINEUP
Ichiro, CF
Chris Snelling, LF
J.D. Drew, RF
Nick Johnson, 1B
Adrian Beltre, 3B
Raul Ibanez, DH
Kenji Johjima, C
Jose Lopez, 2B
Yuniesky Betancourt, SS

BENCH
Eduardo Perez
Greg Dobbs
Mike Morse
Willie Bloomquist
Rene Rivera

STARTING ROTATION
Jarrod Washburn
Felix Hernandez
Tomo Ohka
Jake Woods
Cha-Seung Baek

BULLPEN
Armando Benitez
Eric O’Flaherty
Billy Sadler
George Sherrill
Rafael Soriano
J.J. Putz

The starting staff and middle relief are shaky thanks to my proposed moves, but I thinking signing an offensive player like J.D. Drew in his prime is better than overpaying for Jason Schmidt or Barry Zito, both of whom may have already had their best years. Plus, the lineup looks fantastic. Ichiro could swing away to his heart’s content because behind him are three guys who will milk everything they can out of counts. The lineup also features five left-handed hitters, which suits Safeco Field very nicely. It does start with four left-handed hitters in a row, but that does not concern me greatly because Ichiro and Nick Johnson have both proven they can hit southpaws just as well, if not better, than right-handers. J.D. Drew’s three-year splits indicate that he can handle left-handers just fine as well. Even though the pitching staff would have everyone nervous, my moves do give the M’s some pitching depth in case of injuries/ineffectiveness.

This hypothetical team has flaws, but it is better than the 2006 M’s and also gives the team more flexibility in the future and even at the 2007 trading deadline (if Adam Jones is ready, the M’s could consider trading Ichiro). I would be excited if the Mariners off-season ended up emulating this.