Broussard Dealt to Rangers

Last Wednesday, the deadline to tender arbitration-eligible players, the Mariners traded 1B Ben Broussard (74) to the Rangers for 2B Tug Hulett (66/77). Though this is a small deal, there was much more behind it than a simple swap of talent. Most likely, the M's were not going to tender Ben Broussard, which means he would have become a free agent. So, that means they were likely shopping him around to see if anyone was interested in acquiring him. Obviously the Rangers were, and they gave up a relatively anonymous minor-leaguer.

First off, while Tug Hulett may not have superstar written all over him, he is a better player than the type that usually are received in trades like this. Tug provides some needed depth in the infield, and he is good enough to push Jose Lopez for the starting job in spring training. He will be a welcome addition to the team. More importantly though, with Ben gone there now is a need for a left-handed bat on the bench, preferably with a little power. That job should be Jeff Clement's (70/83) to lose. McLaren was clearly impressed by him in September, and the general consensus seems to be that his bat is too good to leave in the minors at this point. Clement will most likely be the third catcher, but the team can afford to do that if they keep both Willie Bloomquist (68) and Mike Morse (69/81).

The Broussard trade may have been small, but it gave many implications about the complexion of the 2008 Mariners. It looks like the youth movement is going to continue, which is worth getting excited about. The system is a little better than advertised, and it looks like baseball will begin to find that out.

M's Roster Taking Shape

Today the Mariners announced that they had re-assigned one player to minor league camp (RHP Aaron Small), and sent four others to AAA Tacoma (RHP Sean Green, LHP Eric O'Flaherty, C Rene Rivera, OF Jeremy Reed). Though the Mariners had made several cuts before today's round, no one was cut before today that was thought to have a shot at making the ballclub. Especially with the four optioned to AAA out of the picture, the opening day roster has begun to take shape. As of now, the Mariners have 33 players in camp and must be down to 25 in a matter of days. Here is who is still left (* = a player not on the 40-man roster):


POSITION PLAYERS
Kenji Johjima (C)
Jamie Burke (C)*
Richie Sexson (1B)
Ben Broussard (1B/LF/RF)
Jose Lopez (2B)
Jose Vidro (2B/DH)
Yuniesky Betancourt (SS)
Gookie Dawkins (SS/3B)*
Rey Ordonez (SS)*
Adrian Beltre (3B)
Raul Ibanez (LF)
Ichiro (CF)
Adam Jones (CF)
Jose Guillen (RF)
Willie Bloomquist (IF/OF)
Mike Morse (IF/OF)


PITCHING STAFF
Felix Hernandez (RHP)
Jarrod Washburn (LHP)
Miguel Batista (RHP)
Horacio Ramirez (LHP)
Jeff Weaver (RHP)
Cesar Jimenez (LHP)
Arthur Rhodes (LHP)*
George Sherrill (LHP)
Jake Woods (LHP)
Jon Huber (RHP)
Justin Lehr (RHP)*
Mark Lowe (RHP)
Julio Mateo (RHP)
Brandon Morrow (RHP)*
J.J. Putz (RHP)
Chris Reitsma (RHP)
Sean White (RHP)


With Rene Rivera being sent down today the Mariners have only two catchers remaining in camp, which means Kenji Johjima (of course) and more surprisingly Jamie Burke will be on the ballclub by process of elimination. Sexson, Lopez, Betancourt, Beltre, Vidro, Ibanez, Ichiro, and Guillen are all locked in as starters on the club, and Willie Bloomquist was a shoo-in as a reserve at the start of the spring, but he has removed any doubt with his performance as well. So, that is a total of 11 position players with spot on the squad, and since it looks like the M's are going to carry 12 pitchers, 2 vacant reserve positions remain. Since the Mariners would probably like one of these guys to bat left-handed, Ben Broussard has likely made the ballclub because he is the only left-handed hitter among those that are not already on the ballclub. Between him and Willie Bloomquist, the Mariners have all the defensive positions covered, so they have the luxury of selecting the best player out of the pool remaining. If I were them, I would go with Mike Morse because he has the best bat of everyone left, the most versatility of anyone left, and he also is already on the 40-man roster.


Now on to the pitching staff. Hernandez, Washburn, Batista, Ramirez, and Weaver are the starting five for sure. However, the bullpen is very much up for grabs. Jake Woods figures to return to the long-relief role he filled so well last year, Chris Reitsma will be the set-up man, and Dudley-favorite Julio Mateo is sure to pitch in some crucial inning when better options are available (though I should say Mateo has looked good this spring, and I anticipate a good year from him). J.J. Putz would be a lock to make the team as well, but the Mariners may opt to put him on the DL to start the year if he is hurt bad enough. I think they won't though, so I will lightly pencil him in on the opening day roster. So, 9 of the 12 pitching spots are taken, leaving 3 to be decided between 8 hurlers. Mark Lowe can be eliminated because he is still hurt, so really there are only seven competing. Arthur Rhodes and George Sherrill should be on the club, because Hargrove really wants three lefties, especially since one (Woods) fills the long-relief role. That leaves only one position up for grabs among Jon Huber, Justin Lehr, Brandon Morrow, and Sean White. Of this quartet, Lehr has probably been the most unimpressive (though Huber is right there with him), and he is also a non-roster invitee. So, his chances of making the Mariners are slim to none.


That leaves Huber, Morrow, and White. Huber was impressive in his September call-up last year, but he has been roughed up a couple times this spring. Brandon Morrow has been dominant, and he's got the best stuff of this trio. However, he has virtually no professional experience and he's also not on the 40-man roster. As for Sean White, he has also looked good this spring and if the Mariners don't keep him they will have to return him to the Braves, since he was a Rule 5 draft pick. The last bullpen spot is easily the toughest decision the Mariners have to make, but if I were making the call I would go with Sean White, because he and Huber are relative equal in my eyes but Huber can be sent down; and also because I would prefer to see Brandon Morrow develop as a starter in the minors (plus adding Morrow would kick another guy off the 40-man roster).


So, here is who I think the 2007 Mariners will be:


STARTING LINEUP
Kenji Johjima, C
Richie Sexson, 1B
Jose Lopez, 2B
Yuniesky Betancourt, SS
Adrian Beltre, 3B
Raul Ibanez, LF
Ichiro, CF
Jose Guillen, RF
Jose Vidro, DH


BENCH
Willie Bloomquist
Ben Broussard
Mike Morse
Jamie Burke


STARTING ROTATION
Felix Hernandez
Jarrod Washburn
Miguel Batista
Horacio Ramirez
Jeff Weaver


BULLPEN
Jake Woods, Long Relief
Sean White, Long Relief
Julio Mateo, Middle Relief
George Sherrill, Specialty Lefty
Arthur Rhodes, Left-Handed Set-Up
Chris Reitsma, Right-Handed/Primary Set-Up
J.J. Putz, Closer


In this scenario, two non-roster invitees make the squad, so two players must be removed from the 4o-man roster. To open up one spot I would put Mark Lowe on the 60-day DL, and for the last one I would designate Sean Green for assignment. If J.J. Putz starts the year on the DL, I would call up Jon Huber, but my feeling is that the Mariners will choose Morrow instead. If Morrow is added to the roster, my guess is Travis Blackley is designated for assignment. I've often criticize Bavasi and Dudley for how they have handled the roster, but so far I like what I see. I'm scared they are going to kill Morrow's future (though I think he would be a solid reliever), but I'm even more scared they are going to keep either Rey Ordonez or Gookie Dawkins around. The M's are due for a brain freeze at some point this spring.

Off-Season Dreaming

I did not think I would write a post with a bunch of hypothetical moves that the Mariners could make to save themselves, but after a conversation much too late a couple nights ago with a friend of mine I have to. He mentioned a few guys he would like to see the Mariners acquire and, after postulating a few scenarios, we came up with an interesting sequence of events. Here are three moves that would significantly alter the Mariners that are not far-fetched:

MOVE 1- Seattle Mariners trade Ben Broussard, Jeremy Reed, Joel Pineiro, and Wladimir Balentien to the Washington Nationals for Nick Johnson – This deal makes sense for the Mariners for a couple of reasons. First of all, the trade leaves Seattle with multiple spots open on the 40-man roster, which they need to have to sign free agents. More importantly though, this move nets a vastly underrated hitter in Nick Johnson. Each of the past two years Johnson has had a batting average of around .290 with an on-base percentage over .400 and in 2006 he hit a whopping 46 doubles to go along with 23 home runs. Moreover, he accumulated these numbers in pitcher-friendly RFK stadium and is only 27 years old, meaning he is just entering his prime. The trade also makes sense for the Nationals because they receive a first baseman who can replace Johnson’s average and home runs at a cheaper price and they also gain two promising young outfielders, plus a starting pitcher. Considering all the holes the Nationals have to fill they would have to consider this deal.

MOVE 2 - Seattle Mariners trade 1B Richie Sexson, RP Emiliano Fruto, and RP Julio Mateo to the San Francisco Giants for RP Armando Benitez, SP Pat Misch, and RP Billy Sadler – With Nick Johnson having been acquired, Richie Sexson becomes expendable and in this market his $14 million price tag for two years does not look terrible. The Giants are yet another team with several holes and tons of money to spend. This deal makes sense for San Francisco because they add a power bat to the middle of their lineup, two arms to their bullpen, and even get rid of Armando Benitez’s contract. The Mariners add some needed depth to their pitching staff but more importantly gain a bunch of money to spend, roughly $8 million in this deal. In the first move the Mariners also gained $3.3 million which, if Gil Meche’s $3.7 million earned last year is included, brings the Mariners to $15 million under the 2006 payroll. This clears the way for…

MOVE 3 – Seattle Mariners sign OF J.D. Drew – Like Nick Johnson, J.D. Drew sports a terrific on-base percentage and has all the tools in the world to become an elite offensive player. Drew is often criticized of being lazy and soft, but even if he puts up the numbers he has in the past he would be a huge addition to the Mariners lineup.

MOVE 4 – Seattle Mariners sign SP Tomo Ohka – Another beautiful feature of the first three moves is that no payroll was added, meaning the Mariners should still have enough money to add a decent starter like they are currently planning to do. Ohka is nothing special, but he is solid and would not break the bank.

With these four moves the 2007 Mariners would look something like this:

STARTING LINEUP
Ichiro, CF
Chris Snelling, LF
J.D. Drew, RF
Nick Johnson, 1B
Adrian Beltre, 3B
Raul Ibanez, DH
Kenji Johjima, C
Jose Lopez, 2B
Yuniesky Betancourt, SS

BENCH
Eduardo Perez
Greg Dobbs
Mike Morse
Willie Bloomquist
Rene Rivera

STARTING ROTATION
Jarrod Washburn
Felix Hernandez
Tomo Ohka
Jake Woods
Cha-Seung Baek

BULLPEN
Armando Benitez
Eric O’Flaherty
Billy Sadler
George Sherrill
Rafael Soriano
J.J. Putz

The starting staff and middle relief are shaky thanks to my proposed moves, but I thinking signing an offensive player like J.D. Drew in his prime is better than overpaying for Jason Schmidt or Barry Zito, both of whom may have already had their best years. Plus, the lineup looks fantastic. Ichiro could swing away to his heart’s content because behind him are three guys who will milk everything they can out of counts. The lineup also features five left-handed hitters, which suits Safeco Field very nicely. It does start with four left-handed hitters in a row, but that does not concern me greatly because Ichiro and Nick Johnson have both proven they can hit southpaws just as well, if not better, than right-handers. J.D. Drew’s three-year splits indicate that he can handle left-handers just fine as well. Even though the pitching staff would have everyone nervous, my moves do give the M’s some pitching depth in case of injuries/ineffectiveness.

This hypothetical team has flaws, but it is better than the 2006 M’s and also gives the team more flexibility in the future and even at the 2007 trading deadline (if Adam Jones is ready, the M’s could consider trading Ichiro). I would be excited if the Mariners off-season ended up emulating this.

M's Get Another Indian

Before addressing the moves by the Mariners yesterday, I have to touch on the story about Floyd Landis that broke today. Landis, this year's Tour de France winner, is under suspicion of doping after a urine sample taken from him before stage 17 (the stage where he miraculously made up nearly eight minutes after supposedly falling out of contention) indicated high testosterone levels. What this really means is that his testosterone to epitestosterone ratio was abnormally high, and from what I have heard he did not have lots of testosterone but rather a lack of epitestosterone. Some have hypothesized this could be a result of several conditions, most notably the cortisone shots he has been taking to dull the pain in his arthritic hip. Whether that is a credible medical excuse, I have no clue. However, should anyone be surprised that Floyd Landis's drug test revealed high testosterone levels? The man not only just cycled around the perimeter of France on a severely arthritic hip, but also cycled around it faster than everyone else. The drug test proves what was already known: Floyd Landis has serious balls.

Now to the real point of this post. The Mariners were quite busy on Wednesday, starting the day by designating Carl Everett for assignment and finally ending his brief Mariner career. To take his place they called up oft-injured Chris Snelling, who somehow managed to injure himself without playing last night and land back on the disabled list today. This move should have been made over a month ago, so I will not give the Mariners too much credit. Still, I am happy to finally see Everett gone, though I also have to admit he exceeded my expectations. With the announcement of this move, Bill Bavasi added that the Mariners might not be done making moves, almost as if he knew something the rest of us did not. Bavasi was true to his word as he acquired just hours later Ben Broussard from the Cleveland Indians for Shin-Soo Choo and a player to be named later. Bavasi would admit later in the day he knew he would get a deal for a left-handed hitter done, either for Broussard or a mysterious "Player B". "Player B" was most likely Todd Walker of the Cubs.

There is alot to like about Ben Broussard. First of all, he is a left-handed hitter with some power that has destroyed right-handed pitching this year. He had platooned with Eduardo Perez at first base in Cleveland until Perez was traded to the M's, and now they will platoon again at designated hitter. Furthermore, Broussard is under the control of the Mariners until 2008, so he is both a short-term and long-term fix.

However, I have my concerns about this trade. Taking a look at Broussard's home/road splits, I noticed something that worried me. At Jacobs Field this year, Ben has batted .381 with 11 home runs, and on the road he has batted just .248 with 2 home runs. Jacobs Field is not a particularly hitter-friendly park and Broussard has not had a major difference in his home and road numbers in previous seasons, so this may be an aberration. However, Broussard has really broken out this year and it may be just because he has been absurdly hot at home for no apparent reason. Another troubling statistic is his pitches seen per plate appearance. Usually, hitters see more pitches per plate appearance as they get older because they get more selective and discern balls and strikes better. However, Broussard is seeing an average of 3.57 pitches per plate appearance this season, easily the fewest of his career. Considering that the Mariners seem to promote an aggressive approach at the plate, Broussard may average even fewer pitches seen in Seattle which will likely cause his batting average and power to dip even more. Though it is possible Broussard has put everything together this year (like the M's believe), I think it is more likely this is an aberration and that the real Ben Broussard is less than what the M's are counting on him to be. Kudos to the Indians for trading him at what will likely prove to be his peak value.

Even more kudos are in store for Cleveland for getting Shin-Soo Choo in return. I have been high on Choo for several years now and I don't understand why the Mariners did not give him more of a chance. I feel that Choo's hitting ability is at least comparable to Broussard's right now and he definitely has a ton more speed. Choo is also only 24 years old, four years younger than Broussard, so it is not outlandish to expect Choo to develop into a significantly better player than Broussard. According to Bavasi, interest on the trade market for Choo has steadily declined over the last three years, and he also felt there was no place in the Mariners organization for him, so he was content to part with him to get Broussard. The way I see it, the Mariners just made a trade that is considered equal on the current trade market, but they acquired a player at his peak value and gave up a player at his lowest value. A deal like this could end up lopsided, and I do not think it takes too much brain power to decipher which team will likely end up on top. Plus, the Mariners will eventually include a dreaded player to be named later. That player could be an absolute zero or they could be an integral part of the deal; no one will know until that player to be named later is named, later.

As negative as I have been about this trade, the psychological impact it has on the team must be considered. The Mariners players have said from the start that they thought they could win the west and they have to be excited that the front office has been aggressive and added some players that will make a difference. It helps even more that to this point no one else in the division has made a move, which means the guys in the M's clubhouse have to think they have improved the most. The numbers-crunching part of me says the players would perform the same whether the M's made any deals or not, but there is no doubt the players will be happier and more motivated knowing that the front office has faith in them and that the whole organization is committed to winning this year. I do think it is fair to argue that the team's second half swoons, especially in 2002 and 2003, were partially caused by a lack of action at the trade deadline. The players clearly wanted help those years and when they did not get it, they had to be disappointed and that may have carried onto the field and ultimately all the way into the standings. As minor as the Perez and Broussard moves may look, a quick glance around baseball shows no other team that has done more to improve their ballclub (though that is certainly subject to change) and I think the M's players are aware of that.

In the end, the Mariners are a better team with Ben Broussard in place of Carl Everett, but I think Shin-Soo Choo was too heavy of a price to pay. This will be the most compelling August and September northwest baseball fans have seen in years.

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