Still Looking For 2011 Homes

Spring training is about a month away, and there is still talent out on the open market. Looking through the list of remaining players, here are 10 that should get signed between now and then:

RHP Justin Duchscherer - Injuries are Justin's big problem, but when he is healthy, he is productive. Perhaps a return to the bullpen (where he made his first All Star appearance) would be good for him. Ducscherer's best weapon is pin-point accuracy, so he has a chance to age well. He will be 33 years old in 2011, so it's worth thinking what kind of pitcher he will be like as he loses velocity. Justin's recent injury history will probably limit him to a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training, but if he's healthy he is a candidate to break camp with whatever team that signs him.

2009 Trade Deadline Recap

Here is a look at every deal that happened yesterday on what turned out to be a busy trade deadline:

• Tigers acquire LHP Jarrod Washburn from the Mariners for LHP Luke French and LHP Mauricio Robles - I already wrote a whole post about this one. Check it out here.
• White Sox acquire RHP Jake Peavy from the Padres for LHP Clayton Richard, LHP Aaron Poreda, RHP Adam Russell, and RHP Dexter Carter - I already wrote a whole post about this one too. Check it out here.
• Red Sox acquire C Victor Martinez from the Indians for RHP Justin Masterson, LHP Nick Hagadone, and RHP Bryan Price - I am still a little surprised Victor was traded, but leave it to the Red Sox to find a way to get a deal done. Jason Varitek and David Ortiz are both old, and Victor is a good bat that will allow both aging BoSox stars to rest more. The cost was high though. People know about Masterson at this point, but the key to the deal was Nick Hagadone. He is coming back from an arm injury, but he does not look any worse for the wear. Hagadone is a tall lefty with powerful, heavy stuff. He's been getting lots of grounders and strikeouts. He probably will not be up by the end of this year, but he is not far away. Hagadone could develop into a top-of-the-rotation starter. Lastly, Bryan Price is just 22 years old, and also has a good arm. His ERA is high, but the rest of his numbers suggest that some bad luck is involved. Cleveland got three quality arms in this deal. They all have a good chance to reach the majors and stick around for a while. I'm not sure I would have given up this much for Victor if I was Boston.
• Red Sox acquire 1B Casey Kotchman from the Braves for 1B Adam LaRoche - Once Boston acquired Victor, it was clear that Adam LaRoche didn't have much of a place on the team. So, it is not surprising he got traded, but getting Kotchman in return is a surprise. He looks awfully similar to LaRoche. However, Kotchman is cheaper, which makes adding Victor Martinez's modest contract even easier. Also, Kotchman is not a free agent at the end of the year like LaRoche, and Boston is getting old. It would not surprise if Boston does not re-sign Jason Varitek at the end of this year, makes Victor Martinez their everyday catcher. That makes Kotchman the primary backup at first base, which is important because it will allow Kevin Youkilis to play third when Mike Lowell needs days off or gets hurt. As for the Braves, the move is easier to see. LaRoche has a better bat than Kotchman, and it might be nice that he is a free agent at the end of the year. They have a first baseman they like in AAA called Barbaro Canizares.
• Reds acquire 3B Scott Rolen from the Blue Jays for 3B Edwin Encarnacion, RHP Josh Roenicke, and RHP Zach Stewart - This was one of the more intriguing trades at the deadline. Both the Reds and Blue Jays are out of the playoff hunt, so the Reds acquired Rolen for the future. To get him, they gave up their current third baseman, who is younger and cheaper, and a couple pitchers. Rolen is the best player in this deal right now, but this is a puzzling trade for Cincinnati. It must have been fueled by a serious mancrush on Rolen. That wouldn't be surprising since their GM, Walt Jocketty, was the Cardinals GM when Rolen was in his prime in St. Louis. From Toronto's perspective, this is an outstanding deal. They get rid of Rolen's big contract. In the process they get Edwin Encarnacion, who I've always kind of liked. He's an underrated hitter, but his defense is horrible. Toronto has Jose Bautista playing left field, but he has experience at third. I would consider moving Bautista back to third and trying Encarnacion in the outfield, or really anywhere besides third base. On top of that, the Blue Jays got Roenicke, who should be a solid, cheap bullpen arm for several years. And, as if that was not enough, they also got Zach Stewart, who has blazed through the minor leagues. Stewart is not a premium prospect, but he could be plugged into the back end of the rotation soon, and maybe develop into a good middle-of-the-rotation type. That's a heck of a haul for a third baseman in his mid-30s making a ton of money with back problems. Sneaky good deal for Toronto.
• Rockies acquire LHP Joe Beimel from the Nationals for RHP Ryan Mattheus and RHP Robinson Fabian - Colorado wanted bullpen help, and they got about as average of a left-hander as you could imagine. In return, they gave up very little. Mattheus is somewhat old at 26, but he has heavy power stuff. His high strikeout and ground ball rates are pluses, but he's a little too hittable and a little too old to see him being much more than a marginal middle reliever at this point. As for Fabian, he's a throw-in. Nothing about him screams big league potential to me.
• Marlins acquire 1B Nick Johnson from the Nationals for LHP Aaron Thompson - The Marlins have struggled to fill third base all year, and the acquisition of Johnson will allow the team to move Jorge Cantu over to third. He also gives Florida a very good left-handed bat. In return, the Nats received a 22-year-old left-hander who is already in AA, but does not miss many bats. I am not as high on Thompson as some, but Johnson was gone at the end of the year anyway, and the move frees up room for some pieces that could be in Washington's future. It all adds up to a decent deal, though I think the Marlins got the better end of it.
• Brewers acquire RHP Claudio Vargas from the Dodgers for C Vinny Rottino - Milwaukee desperately needed starting pitching, and I doubt Vargas is who fans had in mind. He has battled hard to come back from an arm injury this year, and in limited opportunities did a solid job out of the Dodgers bullpen. He will give up more than his fair share of hits. It's hard to say much bad about the deal, because Rottino is a minor league catcher at this point. It's a no-risk, likely no reward move for the Brewers.
• Yankees acquire INF/OF Jerry Hairston Jr. from the Reds for C Chase Weems - New York gets depth on their bench with Hairston. He can play all over the field, and in particular his defense is good in the outfield. He also is a decent pinch-hitting option off the bench. In return, the Reds got 20-year-old catcher Chase Weems. He is in A ball, and is yet to hit. All in all, he looks really raw, so it is hard to say what kind of player Cincinnati got.
• Twins acquire SS Orlando Cabrera from the Athetics for SS Tyler Ladendorf - I like this deal for Minnesota. Cabrera is not the defender he used to be, but his bat has shown life. He fits the Twins style perfectly, and I see him settling into the second spot in their lineup behind Denard Span and ahead of Mauer and Morneau really nicely. He also will allow Brendan Harris to slide over to second, filling the biggest problem area on their team all year. As for Oakland, Cabrera was not coming back. He profiles as a Type A free agent, so if he was offered arbitration the A's would have received a compensatory first round draft pick if they had lost him. They must value Ladendorf more than that pick, or at least that pick with the risk of Cabrera accepting arbitration thrown in. Ladendorf is only 21, and has barely played as a professional. Oakland must have liked him when he was drafted, because based on Ladendorf's minimal pro playing time, I would have taken my chances with a draft pick.

This was a fun deadline to watch. Financial worries did not seem to hamstring teams at all in the end. Teams also did not seem willing to trust that big-money players would make it through waivers after July 31 either. With all the big names moved this year, the trade deadline certainly will impact the pennant races and the playoffs.

Off-Season Dreaming 2.0

The off-season has really started to heat up since my first off-season post and with the new developments, I felt like revising my plan for the Mariners. Here is what I propose now:

MOVE 1: As part of a three-way deal, Mariners send 1B Richie Sexson to the Yankees, SP Joel Pineiro and 1B Ben Broussard to the Nationals, and acquire 1B Nick Johnson from the Nationals. The Yankees send SP Sean Henn and RP T.J. Beam to the Nationals in the deal as well – The Yankees are looking for a full-time first baseman that bats right-handed. Richie Sexson is clearly better than any option the Yankees could sign in free agency, so they would have to listen if the Mariners offered him. This deal makes sense for the Nationals too because they get a serviceable replacement for Nick Johnson in Ben Broussard at a great price, and they also add three pitchers that could all make their major-league squad. As for the Mariners, they dump payroll and acquire Nick Johnson, who should be a perfect fit for Safeco.

MOVE 2: Mariners trade RP Julio Mateo, RP Emiliano Fruto, and OF Jeremy Reed to the Florida Marlins for SP Yusmeiro Petit – The Marlins are looking for veteran relief help and a centerfielder at the winter meetings, and appear poised to give up a young starting pitcher to fill their needs. So, with this deal the M’s get a young starting pitcher that can come in and compete for a spot in the rotation immediately and the Marlins fill both holes. I’m not convinced this package is enough to net Petit though. I would be willing to take Renyel Pinto instead of Petit in the trade, or add another piece (such as Michael Garciaparra, Bryan LaHair, Greg Dobbs, et al) to make this trade happen. The whole deal would hinge on how much the Marlins like Jeremy Reed.

MOVE 3: Mariners sign DH Barry Bonds, SP Tomo Ohka, C Rod Barajas, and 1B Eduardo Perez – My guess is signing all of these free agents would take roughly $20 million, which the Mariners should have available even if they pick up as much as half of Richie Sexson’s remaining contract in my proposed moves. The most controversial signing is Barry Bonds obviously, but his bat would add an incredible presence to the lineup. A less risky (and even cheaper) option would be Luis Gonzalez and I would be content with that. However, with these deals I proposed the Mariners could give Bonds the $10 million he wants and it would not blow the budget. It is something to think about.

So, with these moves the 2007 Mariners would look something like this:

STARTING LINEUP
Ichiro, CF
Chris Snelling, RF
Nick Johnson, 1B
Barry Bonds, DH
Adrian Beltre, 3B
Raul Ibanez, LF
Kenji Johjima, C
Jose Lopez, 2B
Yuniesky Betancourt, SS

BENCH
Eduardo Perez
Greg Dobbs
Mike Morse
Rod Barajas
Willie Bloomquist

STARTING ROTATION
Jarrod Washburn
Felix Hernandez
Tomo Ohka
Cha-Seung Baek
Yusmeiro Petit

BULLPEN
Jake Woods
Eric O’Flaherty
Jon Huber
George Sherrill
Rafael Soriano
J.J. Putz

Once again, the lineup looks much improved over last year’s. Just look at Raul Ibanez, the big hitter from last year, dropping to sixth in the lineup. I love the idea of three extremely patient hitters like Snelling, Johnson, and Bonds batting behind Ichiro. This proposed starting rotation is not stellar, but it is better than the one I imagined in my first “Off-Season Dreaming” especially since Beak, Petit, and of course King Felix are all young. This scenario is even less far-fetched than my first plan too since all of these moves are based on reports of what other teams are looking for. The Mariners have been losers in the off-season so far, but there is certainly still hope.

Off-Season Dreaming

I did not think I would write a post with a bunch of hypothetical moves that the Mariners could make to save themselves, but after a conversation much too late a couple nights ago with a friend of mine I have to. He mentioned a few guys he would like to see the Mariners acquire and, after postulating a few scenarios, we came up with an interesting sequence of events. Here are three moves that would significantly alter the Mariners that are not far-fetched:

MOVE 1- Seattle Mariners trade Ben Broussard, Jeremy Reed, Joel Pineiro, and Wladimir Balentien to the Washington Nationals for Nick Johnson – This deal makes sense for the Mariners for a couple of reasons. First of all, the trade leaves Seattle with multiple spots open on the 40-man roster, which they need to have to sign free agents. More importantly though, this move nets a vastly underrated hitter in Nick Johnson. Each of the past two years Johnson has had a batting average of around .290 with an on-base percentage over .400 and in 2006 he hit a whopping 46 doubles to go along with 23 home runs. Moreover, he accumulated these numbers in pitcher-friendly RFK stadium and is only 27 years old, meaning he is just entering his prime. The trade also makes sense for the Nationals because they receive a first baseman who can replace Johnson’s average and home runs at a cheaper price and they also gain two promising young outfielders, plus a starting pitcher. Considering all the holes the Nationals have to fill they would have to consider this deal.

MOVE 2 - Seattle Mariners trade 1B Richie Sexson, RP Emiliano Fruto, and RP Julio Mateo to the San Francisco Giants for RP Armando Benitez, SP Pat Misch, and RP Billy Sadler – With Nick Johnson having been acquired, Richie Sexson becomes expendable and in this market his $14 million price tag for two years does not look terrible. The Giants are yet another team with several holes and tons of money to spend. This deal makes sense for San Francisco because they add a power bat to the middle of their lineup, two arms to their bullpen, and even get rid of Armando Benitez’s contract. The Mariners add some needed depth to their pitching staff but more importantly gain a bunch of money to spend, roughly $8 million in this deal. In the first move the Mariners also gained $3.3 million which, if Gil Meche’s $3.7 million earned last year is included, brings the Mariners to $15 million under the 2006 payroll. This clears the way for…

MOVE 3 – Seattle Mariners sign OF J.D. Drew – Like Nick Johnson, J.D. Drew sports a terrific on-base percentage and has all the tools in the world to become an elite offensive player. Drew is often criticized of being lazy and soft, but even if he puts up the numbers he has in the past he would be a huge addition to the Mariners lineup.

MOVE 4 – Seattle Mariners sign SP Tomo Ohka – Another beautiful feature of the first three moves is that no payroll was added, meaning the Mariners should still have enough money to add a decent starter like they are currently planning to do. Ohka is nothing special, but he is solid and would not break the bank.

With these four moves the 2007 Mariners would look something like this:

STARTING LINEUP
Ichiro, CF
Chris Snelling, LF
J.D. Drew, RF
Nick Johnson, 1B
Adrian Beltre, 3B
Raul Ibanez, DH
Kenji Johjima, C
Jose Lopez, 2B
Yuniesky Betancourt, SS

BENCH
Eduardo Perez
Greg Dobbs
Mike Morse
Willie Bloomquist
Rene Rivera

STARTING ROTATION
Jarrod Washburn
Felix Hernandez
Tomo Ohka
Jake Woods
Cha-Seung Baek

BULLPEN
Armando Benitez
Eric O’Flaherty
Billy Sadler
George Sherrill
Rafael Soriano
J.J. Putz

The starting staff and middle relief are shaky thanks to my proposed moves, but I thinking signing an offensive player like J.D. Drew in his prime is better than overpaying for Jason Schmidt or Barry Zito, both of whom may have already had their best years. Plus, the lineup looks fantastic. Ichiro could swing away to his heart’s content because behind him are three guys who will milk everything they can out of counts. The lineup also features five left-handed hitters, which suits Safeco Field very nicely. It does start with four left-handed hitters in a row, but that does not concern me greatly because Ichiro and Nick Johnson have both proven they can hit southpaws just as well, if not better, than right-handers. J.D. Drew’s three-year splits indicate that he can handle left-handers just fine as well. Even though the pitching staff would have everyone nervous, my moves do give the M’s some pitching depth in case of injuries/ineffectiveness.

This hypothetical team has flaws, but it is better than the 2006 M’s and also gives the team more flexibility in the future and even at the 2007 trading deadline (if Adam Jones is ready, the M’s could consider trading Ichiro). I would be excited if the Mariners off-season ended up emulating this.