2008 Draft: 25 College Players to Watch

For the better part of the past week, I have been sifting through the thousands of Division I baseball players, looking for the cream of the draft-eligible crop. This is the third year that I have comprised a list prospects, and hopefully this will be my best list yet. Just like last year, I used a rating formula that factored in the different styles of play and talent levels within conferences. However, the rating system is quite different. Most notably, strikeouts are absent from both hitter and pitcher rankings. However, when digging in and trying to separate players close in the rating system, things such as strikeouts became quite important. I also took age into consideration much more than I have in the past, and I found video of all the players that I could. Video especially mattered for pitchers, where I looked to make sure that their windups are relatively clean. I know the Mariners emphasize clean mechanics when they look at pitching prospects, and in the last couple years they have done a great job at finding quality pitchers even in later rounds. My basic premise is that the best college players will make the best professionals, but things like age and mechanics certainly impact their future potential.

Even though I applaud the Mariners ability to find pitchers in the draft in recent years, they should not be the gold standard as far as farm systems go. There is a gaping hole in the organization at first base (even at the major league level), and I have been hoping that they would address it every year that I have compiled a list of prospects. At this point they pretty much have to draft a first baseman, but luckily for them plenty of good options are available.

Overall, this draft is considered by most a relatively weak one, with little star power. I am a little more optimistic, but in general I would agree. The draft appears to have a number of good first baseman and several quality bullpen arms, but everywhere else is somewhere between average and thin. Still, I ended up leaving several players off of my 2008 list that I certainly like, so there is talent to be had.

I made this list, as I do every year, with the Mariners in mind. To this point, they are yet to draft a player off of the list, but this may be the year that changes. The Mariners are a logical fit for any of the first baseman on the list, and additionally rumor is that they are definitely interested in one pitcher on the list as well. Without further ado, the 2008 edition of the 25 to watch:

25. Nate Freiman, 1B, Duke

• STATS: .381 AVG, 11 HR, 46 RBI, .447 OBP, .671 SLG, 13 BB, 16 K, 1 SB, 0 CS
  
• REPORT: At 6'8" playing first base, Freiman is quite reminiscent of Richie Sexson. That may sound damning, but Richie made some All-Star games in his prime. Taller hitters tend to struggle in the majors, most likely because they have a larger strike zone to cover and naturally longer swings as well. The combination is a recipe for many swings and misses. Really, Richie Sexson is probably the best hitter in major league history 6'6" or taller, and the main keys to his former success were a discerning eye and quick, compact stroke. With only 16 strikeouts and a high batting average in the ACC, Freiman makes contact remarkably well for his height, leading me to believe he can beat his own size too. He even found success in the Cape Cod League over the summer, which uses wooden bats. In addition, Freiman has played some outfield and even catcher, so he is a pretty good athlete. Freiman is getting little attention, but he was one of the better hitters in the best baseball conference this year, and there are reasons to believe he can be a good hitter despite his height.
  

24. Scott Gorgan, RHP, UC-Irvine

• STATS: 11-3 REC, 2.31 ERA, 109 IP, 66 H, 36 BB, 115 K, 7 HR
  
• REPORT: Gorgan has been a mainstay in the Anteaters rotation for three years, and has anchored the staff through the best years in the program's history. His fastball sits in the high 80s and can get into the low 90s, but his best pitch is a change-up. Most teams like his repertoire and production, but are shying away from him because he is only 5'11". Gorgan's windup is fairly clean, he has no injury history, and he has performed at a consistently high level throughout college, so I do not see much reason to worry about his height at all.
  

23. Collin Cowgill, OF, Kentucky

• STATS: .361 AVG, 19 HR, 60 RBI, .483 OBP, .687 SLG, 49 BB, 52 K, 23 SB, 4 CS
  
• REPORT: Based purely on production, Cowgill should be higher on the board, especially considering that he has shown success hitting with wood bats in the Cape Cod League. However, at 5'9", the ability for his power to translate is questionable. Judging from Cowgill's strikeouts, it looks like he was swinging hard to produce his power, and I am guessing he will shorten up his stroke as a professional and have mostly gap power. Still, Cowgill has a great feel for the strike zone, runs well too, and just flat-out knows how to play the game.
  

22. Shooter Hunt, RHP, Tulane

• STATS: 9-4 REC, 2.68 ERA, 100.2 IP, 62 H, 56 BB, 126 K, 8 HR
  
• REPORT: With prototypical size, a live arm, and the ability to make hitters swing and miss, it is easy to see why teams like Shooter Hunt. While I also like him, I have my concerns. He certainly has a wild streak, as shown by all the walks. He was even more wild in the Cape Cod League over the summer too. On top of that, his home run rate is not so great either, leading me to believe that when he is not on, he really struggles. Hunt's stuff is among the nastiest draft, and he has been steadily improving throughout his college career. However, he still is not as polished as some higher on my board, and home runs may always be a concern with him. Hunt is a player I have seen linked to the Mariners with their first pick.
  

21. Jacob Thompson, RHP, Virginia

• STATS: 6-4 REC, 4.30 ERA, 81.2 IP, 90 H, 31 BB, 70 K, 2 HR
  
• REPORT: Based on this season alone, Thompson would not be on the board. However, he was among the best pitchers in the country the last two years running. Thompson has great size at 6'6" and has always been good at inducing ground balls and keeping the ball in the ballpark. Neither of those positive traits abandoned him even through his struggles this year. Additionally, his good command did not leave him either. Thompson does not have overpowering stuff, but I still think he is much closer to the pitcher that dominated as a freshman and sophomore than the one that struggled somewhat this year.
  

20. Michael Schwimer, RHP, Virginia

• STATS: 3-1 REC, 1.72 ERA, 31.1 IP, 19 H, 10 BB, 36 K, 1 HR
  
• REPORT: Schwimer is the oldest player on my board this year, though he is still just 22. The senior right-hander is an imposing figure on the mound at 6'8" and 240 pounds, and pitched out of relief the vast majority of his college career. However, he was used as a starter in the Cape Cod League over the summer, and was rather successful. Somehow, Schwimer has really flown under the radar, but he has performed at a high level his entire college career and shown an ability to succeed as both a starter and a reliever. His size and strikeout rate suggest that he throws hard too, though I cannot confirm that because I could not find video on him. Still, I am curious to see where Schwimer goes in the draft, because I think he is underrated.
  

19. Eric Thames, OF, Pepperdine

• STATS: .407 AVG, 13 HR, 59 RBI, .513 OBP, .769 SLG, 35 BB, 30 K, 11 SB, 1 CS
  
• REPORT: Thames posted solid numbers last year in his first year at Pepperdine, but really exploded on to the scene this year before a leg injury ended his season. I am generally leery of players that explode to the extent that Thames did, but the West Coast Conference is underrated, and by all accounts Pepperdine's home park is difficult to hit in. The injury has probably hurt his draft status, which seems ridiculous to me since he will be completely fine by next season anyway. Thames is too intriguing of a bat for me to put him much lower on this list.
  

18. Reese Havens, SS, South Carolina

• STATS: .359 AVG, 18 HR, 57 RBI, .486 OBP, .645 SLG, 58 BB, 44 K, 1 SB, 4 CS
  
• REPORT: Reese really began to emerge in the Cape Cod League over the summer, and continued his success into his junior campaign. He has good hands and a good arm, but limited speed, so there is some thought that he will eventually move from shortstop. However, especially if Haven's bat continues to progress at the rate it has been, any position is an option. I am not sold on his power potential, but he hits too well from a middle infield position to not take notice.
  

17. Scott Bittle, RHP, Mississippi

• STATS: 7-1 REC, 1.78 ERA, 70.2 IP, 35 H, 30 BB, 130 K, 3 HR
  
• REPORT: Bittle should have replaced Cody Satterwhite in Ole Miss's rotation, but instead he pitched in middle relief the whole season and dominated. Satterwhite and Lance Lynn are still generally considered Ole Miss's top two pitching prospects, but it is Bittle that has steadily improved and struck out batters left and right. I do not know how hard he throws, but he appears to command both a fastball and curve from the same armslot. I never thought I would put a middle reliever in college on my watchlist, but here Bittle is, and he has certainly earned the spot.
  

16. Clayton Shunick, RHP, North Carolina State

• STATS: 7-5 REC, 2.16 ERA, 95.2 IP, 77 H, 23 BB, 108 K, 5 HR
  
• REPORT: Like several pitchers on my list this year, there is virtually no buzz around Shunick and I am not sure why. He was arguably the best pitcher in the ACC this year, and on top of that he has had strong performances in the Cape Cod League the last two years. Interestingly, his summer success in 2006 did not translate his sophomore season, but Shunick said that he realized he had dropped his arm angle. So, he worked on throwing over the top more, and he regained his 2006 Cape Cod form. Shunick seems to be a fairly bright young player, and he should be receiving a little more attention than he has so far.
  

15. Conor Gillaspie, 3B, Wichita State

• STATS: .425 AVG, 10 HR, 79 RBI, .510 OBP, .706 SLG, 38 BB, 22 K, 16 SB, 2 CS
  
• REPORT: Gillaspie was not on anybody's radar until he tore up the Cape Cod League, and he followed up his strong summer by tearing up the Missouri Valley Conference. He does not seem to have a ton of power, nor great fielding ability, but he can flat-out hit.
  

14. Sawyer Carroll, OF, Kentucky

• STATS: .419 AVG, 19 HR, 83 RBI, .514 OBP, .782 SLG, 44 BB, 33 K, 12 SB, 0 CS
  
• REPORT: Carroll hit well last year, but added significant power to his game this year. How well that power will translate at the professional level is debatable, and it ultimately is what kept him from being higher on my list. Still, he has a great approach at the plate and already has experience in the outfield and first base.
  

13. Blake Tekotte, OF, Miami FL

• STATS: .371 AVG, 11 HR, 46 RBI, .480 OBP, .607 SLG, 39 BB, 30 K, 26 SB, 6 CS
  
• REPORT: Despite playing at a major program, there is relatively little buzz around Takotte compared to some of his teammates. However, he was among the team leaders in batting average, on-base percentage, and stolen bases. Tekotte looks like a lead-off hitter waiting to happen with his good speed, plate discipline, and hitting ability. He may not hit many home runs, but he has the power to reach the gaps and the speed to turn some of those hits into triples.
  

12. Jemile Weeks, 2B, Miami FL

• STATS: .366 AVG, 11 HR, 57 RBI, .447 OBP, .639 SLG, 30 BB, 36 K, 19 SB, 1 CS
  
• REPORT: Jemile is the younger brother of Brewers second baseman Rickie Weeks, so between that and playing for Miami he has received plenty of attention. It is deserved though. Jemile does not have Rickie's power, but he has more speed and the potential to turn into a good defender at second base. Weeks and Tekotte are virtually dead even in my eyes, but I decided to go with Weeks ahead of Tekotte because good middle infielders tend to be harder to find than good outfielders.
  

11. David Cooper, 1B, California

• STATS: .359 AVG, 19 HR, 55 RBI, .449 OBP, .682 SLG, 37 BB, 35 K, 0 SB, 1 CS
  
• REPORT: This is a strong draft for first baseman, so Cooper has not garnered as much attention as he probably would most years. In many ways, Cooper is everything the Mariners need. He is a good hitter from the left side of the plate with both patience and power. He has steadily improved throughout his college career, and even had a nice showing in some Cape Cod League at-bats over the summer.
  

10. Aaron Weatherford, RHP, Mississippi State

• STATS: 3-1 REC, 0.85 ERA, 31.2 IP, 10 H, 10 BB, 62 K, 1 HR
  
• REPORT: The general consensus is that there are a number of good bullpen arms in this college class, and I agree. Of all of them, I think Weatherford is the best, which is far from the consensus. Weatherford did not get many opportunities to pitch as the Bulldogs closer this year, but he certainly made the most of his opportunities. He was a highly regarded recruit out of high school, and has steadily improved throughout his college career. Though I could not find video of him, scouting reports say that he throws hard and has a good splitfinger too. Whatever Weatherford has been throwing, the SEC certainly struggled against it. The bullpen may not seem to be a major concern for the Mariners right now, but J.J. Putz is older than most realize, and Brandon Morrow should be a starter soon as well. A reliever like Weatherford would be a good addition.
  

9. Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Vanderbilt

• STATS: .317 AVG, 9 HR, 30 RBI, .424 OBP, .519 SLG, 28 BB, 28 K, 3 SB, 1 CS
  
• REPORT: Pedro's production this year does not warrant such a high spot on the list, but he had surgery to remove the hamate bone in one of his hands during the season, so he put up those numbers recovering from that. In the past, Alvarez has displayed tremendous power, but also with a rather high strikeout rate. He is likely one of the top two picks in the draft, so there is no way he will fall to the Mariners. Even without the injury, I doubt Alvarez would be quite that high on my board though. He is slightly overhyped in my opinion.
  

8. Ike Davis, OF, Arizona State

• STATS: .394 AVG, 16 HR, 73 RBI, .468 OBP, .778 SLG, 30 BB, 31 K, 5 SB, 2 CS
  
• REPORT: Ike Davis has one of the highest ceilings of any college player in the draft. He is a gifted athlete that has only begun to recognize his potential. During his time at Arizona State he has played the outfield and first base while also pitching on a fairly regular basis. He was close to making this list on his pitching ability, but his innings have diminished as he has become a more important hitter in the lineup. Though Davis already hits for great power, he promises to hit for more as he fills out some and focuses more on hitting. Ike is one of the most exciting prospects in this draft, and it is debatable whether he will be available or not when the Mariners make their first selection.
  

7. Aaron Crow, RHP, Missouri

• STATS: 13-0 REC, 2.35 ERA, 107.1 IP, 85 H, 38 BB, 127 K, 6 HR
  
• REPORT: Crow had an awkward year and tenuously sits as the top pitcher on most draft boards. He was good last year as a sophomore, and then had an unbelievable summer in the Cape Cod League. On top of that, Crow put together a streak of over 43 consecutive scoreless innings this season! Obviously, he has shown the ability to completely dominate, but when he does not have his best stuff this year he was surprisingly poor. He will be picked before the Mariners draft, and I still think he is the best arm available this year.
  

6. Allan Dykstra, 1B, Wake Forest

• STATS: .323 AVG, 16 HR, 50 RBI, .519 OBP, .645 SLG, 62 BB, 45 K, 7 SB, 1 CS
  
• REPORT: Most years there would be plenty of talk about a guy like Dykstra, but this is a strong draft for first baseman. The indications are strong that he will be available when the Mariners pick at 20, and the M's would be wise to take a close look at him. The perception is that Dykstra does not have much upside, but he also is a safe pick. He has tremendous plate discipline and good power. He has performed at a remarkably high level throughout his college career and in the Cape Cod League as well. Even though Dykstra is generally regarded as a good prospect, I think he is underrated by most. The Mariners could really use a polished first baseman ready to move through the system quickly, so Dykstra would be a great fit.
  

5. Gordon Beckham, SS, Georgia

• STATS: .397 AVG, 24 HR, 65 RBI, .505 OBP, .781 SLG, 47 BB, 29 K, 17 SB, 1 CS
  
• REPORT: At first glance, Beckham does not look incredibly special, but with a bat in his hands he is. He consistently makes hard contact and generates surprising power out of his 6'0", 175-pound frame. Some do not think his power will translate to the pro level, but he hit well in the Cape Cod League over the summer. Beckham reminds me of Dustin Pedroia, though Beckham has a better arm on defense.
  

4. Justin Smoak, 1B, South Carolina

• STATS: .383 AVG, 23 HR, 72 RBI, .505 OBP, .757 SLG, 57 BB, 28 K, 1 SB, 3 CS
  
• REPORT: Smoak has been on Major League radars since his high school days, and really came into his own this year. A switch-hitter, Smoak has a beautiful stroke from both sides of the plate, and he generates tremendous power. Comparisons to Mark Teixeira are easy to make. Earlier on there was some thought that he could be available when the Mariners pick, but the odds look extremely slim now.
  

3. Brett Wallace, 1B, Arizona State

• STATS: .414 AVG, 21 HR, 81 RBI, .531 OBP, .762 SLG, 45 BB, 31 K, 16 SB, 4 CS
  
• REPORT: There is no doubt that Wallace is a complete hitter. He has power to all fields, good plate coverage, and great plate discipline. However, his stock is not as high as what might be expected because he is trapped in a "bad body." Especially in baseball, the list of bad body players that were good is long, and Wallace is more burly than pudgy. He even runs fairly well, as the number of bases he stole suggests. The best pro comparison I can come up with for Wallace is Lance Berkman, though Wallace only hits from the left side. Hopefully concerns over Wallace's body allow him to fall all the way to the Mariners, because he would be a steal with the 20th pick.
  

2. Buster Posey, C, Florida State

• STATS: .468 AVG, 24 HR, 86 RBI, .572 OBP, .897 SLG, 53 BB, 23 K, 5 SB, 3 CS
  
• REPORT: Posey will go very early in the draft, so I will not spend much time breaking him down. Posey started out as a shortstop, but has since moved to catcher and is catching on quickly. He exploded this season and had by far the best year of any college player in the country. While I think he is great, especially for a catcher, I have a hard time believing he is really as good as this season's numbers suggest. Nothing about his past performance indicated a season like this. Still, Posey is a great athlete with all the tools to be a great professional.
  

1. Yonder Alonso, 1B, Miami FL

• STATS: .370 AVG, 21 HR, 66 RBI, .536 OBP, .767 SLG, 69 BB, 30 K, 9 SB, 6 CS
  
• REPORT: As the draft approaches, Alonso's stock continues to rise. The only way he falls to the Mariners is if signability issues scare other teams away, because he is a tremendous prospect. Alonso is the most polished hitter in the draft thanks to an extremely developed eye at the plate. Though he has already displayed good power, he should develop even more as he turns on more pitches. If I had made a pre-season top 25 list, Alonso would have been at the top of it and never budged. With so many strengths as a hitter, it is hard to think that he will not pan out.

There are the 25 college players that I hope the Mariners are looking at this year. Many of them will likely be high draft picks, but not all of them. I certainly left some good talent off the list too, especially pitching talent. I like who the Mariners have drafted under Bill Bavasi and Bob Fontaine, but I am still hoping that they take someone off of my list one of these years. Especially considering the relatively weak high school crop, this could very well be the year.

2008 Draft: A Look Back at 2007

With the success of the number one player on my board in 2006, Tim Lincecum, I decided to try my hand and making another list of the best college prospects in 2007. I took much more time to prepare and devised a rating system, so in the end I was able to look at tons more players. Not surprisingly, I expanded the list from 15 to 25. Once again, I had an eye on the Mariners farm system as I created this list, so first baseman and hitting in general got priority. Still, a position of need was used more as a tie-breaker for this list, which was a departure from the way I made the list in 2006. One year later, here are how the 25 to watch from 2007 are doing:

25. David Newmann, RHP, Rays

• REPORT: After being selected in the fourth round last year, Newmann is yet to appear in a professional game. Since he was a college senior, he should have signed. My best guess is that he has been pitching in extended spring training this year.

24. Josh Donaldson, C, Cubs (Peoria, A)

• STATS: .196 AVG, 4 HR, 10 RBI, .268 OBP, .331 SLG, 14 BB, 29 K, 5 SB, 1 CS
  
• REPORT: After a fantastic summer in the Northwest League, Donaldson has struggled in his first full year as a professional. His power has diminished some, but that is to be expected in the Midwest League, which is generally considered a tough one for hitters. Additionally, Donaldson's strikeout rate has not gone up much from the previous year, and he is still drawing a fair share of walks. What have magically disappeared are his singles, which is rather odd. It leads me to think that Donaldson had great luck last year and poor luck so far in 2008. However, if that is the case, he should heat up at some point and he simply has not yet.

23. Dominic de la Osa, SS/OF, Vanderbilt

• REPORT: Dominic was drafted in the 10th round by the Tigers, but opted not to sign and return for his senior season at Vanderbilt. He really struggled in the Cape Cod League over the summer, and did not post as good of numbers this year as he did in his junior campaign. It will be interesting to see if he is drafted higher this year or not.

22. Todd Frazier, SS, Reds (Sarasota, A+)

• STATS: .269 AVG, 4 HR, 13 RBI, .344 OBP, .500 SLG, 9 BB, 21 K
  
• REPORT: Frazier started the year in low A, but garnered a promotion by posting a 1.000 OPS in the aforementioned Midwest League. Though he is not off to an electric start in Sarasota, he has more than held his own in his first 78 at-bats at the level. A position switch may be in order in the future, but for now his power is especially valuable at shortstop.

21. Corey Brown, OF, Athletics (Kane County, A)

• STATS: .267 AVG, 9 HR, 28 RBI, .363 OBP, .476 SLG, 28 BB, 66 K, 5 SB, 0 CS
  
• REPORT: Brown's strikeouts kept him from being a top 10 pick, but the A's still took him very early and have to be pleased so far. Brown still strikes out a ton, but he has a great eye, great power, and surprising speed. As a result, he has done well as a pro so far. He still looks like a more athletic Jack Cust to me.

20. Adam Mills, RHP, Red Sox (Lancaster, A+)

• STATS: 5-4 REC, 4.42 ERA, 57 IP, 69 H, 12 BB, 33 K, 4 HR
  
• REPORT: Mills pitched in relief over the summer for the Red Sox, but has been given the opportunity to start in Lancaster. He has not been as impressive this year, but at least some of that is due to pitching in the California League, which is probably the most hitter-friendly level in the minor leagues. Mills still displays good control and an ability to keep the ball in the park, which are both encouraging signs. However, it is clear that he is being hit more often, as shown by the increased hits allowed and fewer strikeouts. Overall, Mills is tough to evaluate to this point because of the league he is pitching in.

19. James Simmons, RHP, Athletics (Midland, AA)

• STATS: 2-2 REC, 2.93 ERA, 40 IP, 37 H, 8 BB, 31 K, 4 HR
  
• REPORT: Coming out of college Simmons was expected to be one of the fastest movers, and he has so far. Oakland started him out in AA last year and he struggled some, but he has looked quite good in 2008. Just as in college, nothing really pops out from Simmons, but everything is good. Though the A's reloaded their farm system through trades last off-season, Simmons is establishing himself as one of their better prospects.

18. Cory Luebke, LHP, Padres (Lake Elsinore, A+)

• STATS: 2-3 REC, 7.48 ERA, 49.1 IP, 73 H, 14 BB, 45 K, 6 HR
  
• REPORT: Luebke seems to have hit a wall in Lake Elsinore. The Padres advanced him all the way to high A last year, and he struggled badly in two appearances. To this point, he has not fared any better in 2008. His strikeout, walk, and home run rates are all good, and he even gets more than his fair share of ground balls. However, quite simply, he gives up a ton of hits. Some of that may be due to playing in the California League, but not all of it. The strikeout and home run rates indicate that he has the potential to improve significantly though.

17. Ross Detwiler, LHP, Nationals (Potomac, A+)

• STATS: 4-2 REC, 5.09 ERA, 46 IP, 50 H, 26 BB, 50 K, 2 HR
  
• REPORT: Detwiler was very highly thought of coming out of college, so to this point he may be considered a bit of a disappointment. However, his ERA does not tell the whole story. While Ross has given up more than his fair share of hits, he is also striking out a bunch of batters, inducing tons of ground balls, and keeping the ball in the ballpark. In other words, hitters are not making that great of contact off him. Detwiler's ERA should come down, especially as he gains more control of his pitches.

16. Josh Collmenter, RHP, Diamondbacks (South Bend, A)

• STATS: 4-4 REC, 4.80 ERA, 54.1 IP, 58 H, 22 BB, 49 K, 6 HR
  
• REPORT: Looking at Collmenter's numbers as a whole, his ERA should not be quite as high as it is. However, he is also mostly a fly ball pitcher, so hits off him tend to be for extra bases more often. He is pitching in the Midwest League as well, making his numbers slightly more disappointing. On the positive side, Collmenter got off to a horrible start in the league and has been improving since. In fact, if just his first start is not considered, his ERA is 3.55.

15. James Adkins, LHP, Dodgers (Inland Empire, A+)

• STATS: 3-4 REC, 4.70 ERA, 51.2 IP, 58 H, 22 BB, 48 K, 3 HR
  
• REPORT: I am starting to sound like a broken record, but the biggest problem for Atkins is that he is pitching in the California League. His strikeout and home run rates are excellent, and his ground ball to fly ball ratio is solid as well. However, this league is not friendly for pitchers at all. Better numbers would be preferred, but all things considered, Adkins is doing a decent job.

14. Nick Chigges, RHP, Yankees

• REPORT: After a strong showing in his debut as a pro last summer, Chigges is yet to appear in a game at any level in 2008. Especially considering how good he looked last year, he is probably in extended spring training right now, and hopefully he will get a chance to pitch in the second half of the year.

13. Mitch Canham, C, Padres (Lake Elsinore, A+)

• STATS: .279 AVG, 2 HR, 31 RBI, .421 OBP, .396 SLG, 39 BB, 30 K, 4 SB, 0 CS
  
• REPORT: Canham is displaying a tremendous hitting eye, but nothing much else. His lack of power is not a big deal yet because he gets on base so often, but his limited power numbers are likely inflated because he is in the California League. All that is keeping Canham from being one of the better catching prospects in baseball is a little more power though.

12. Tony Thomas, 2B, Cubs (Daytona, A+)

• STATS: .286 AVG, 4 HR, 19 RBI, .329 OBP, .434 SLG, 13 BB, 47 K, 9 SB, 4 CS
  
• REPORT: Thomas is putting together a decent year in Daytona, though it will be interesting to see how he develops. Right now, it is fairly clear that he is trying to hit for good power, judging from his slugging percentage and high number of strikeouts. However, Thomas also has tremendous speed, so it may be to his advantage to cut down on the strikeouts and put the ball in play more, even if it means he loses some of his power.

11. Josh Horton, SS, Athletics (Stockton, A+)

• STATS: .297 AVG, 0 HR, 18 RBI, .401 OBP, .369 SLG, 32 BB, 36 K
  
• REPORT: It is already clear that Josh Horton has virtually no power at all, but his plate discipline is superb. As a hitter, he reminds me of Jason Kendall in his prime, though with even less power. If Horton ends up developing even a little power, he will be a solid prospect.

10. Travis Banwart, RHP, Athletics (Stockton, A+)

• STATS: 0-1 REC, 3.55 ERA, 12.2 IP, 11 H, 9 BB, 13 K, 2 HR
  
• REPORT: Banwart just got promoted to Stockton thanks to the impressive numbers he put up for Kane County, the A's low-A affiliate. I still like Banwart more than Detwiler, which is far from the consensus. Though the are not in the same league, they are at the same level now, so I am interested to see if Banwart can outperform him. I still do not understand why Banwart was not more highly thought of on draft day.

9. Will Kline, RHP, Rays

• REPORT: After a so-so performance at the end of last season, Kline is yet to appear in a game in 2008. Like fellow 2007 draftee David Newmann, my guess is that the Rays are having him pitch in extended spring training right now, and hopefully he will appear in some games in the second half of the season.

8. Tony Watson, LHP, Pirates (Lynchburg, A+)

• STATS: 3-6 REC, 4.01 ERA, 58.1 IP, 73 H, 15 BB, 37 K, 10 HR
  
• REPORT: Frankly, I do not know how Watson has kept his ERA as low as it is. He is clearly getting hit pretty hard. Watson was impressive last summer, and he must have something going for him this year as well that all stats but his ERA are missing. His walk rate is very low, indicating he is throwing strikes. He seems to buckle down when runners are aboard too, because the batting average against him plummets and he induces more ground balls. Maybe it is an indication that Watson should go to his stretch windup even with no runners aboard.

7. Nick Schmidt, LHP, Padres

• REPORT: Schmidt blew out his arm last summer, so he will not pitch at all this year. He relied mostly on command of a big breaking ball for his success, so taking a year off may take him some time to recover from. Even if Schmidt struggles next year, it will be hard to evaluate him.

6. Eric Sogard, 2B, Padres (Lake Elsinore, A+)

• STATS: .324 AVG, 1 HR, 33 RBI, .435 OBP, .429 SLG, 42 BB, 20 K, 4 SB, 1 CS
  
• REPORT: Sogard got off to a torrid start and has coasted since. His strikeout to walk ratio is insane, but his lack of power is a little troubling since he is in a hitter-friendly league. Still, his pure hitting ability is outstanding, and he does not need any power to be successful with that kind of plate discipline.

5. Bryan Henry, RHP, Diamondbacks (South Bend, A)

• STATS: 0-4 REC, 4.13 ERA, 32.2 IP, 28 H, 6 BB, 18 K
  
• REPORT: Henry has been a disappointment to me so far. He did not pitch well last summer, and though he has been much better in 2008, he still is not terribly impressive. Henry is a fly ball pitcher, and on top of that he does not strike many batters out. He is basically the Jarrod Washburn of the Midwest League, and he needs to be better than that at his age and current minor league level to develop into something promising.

4. Matt Wieters, C, Orioles (Frederick, A+)

• STATS: .329 AVG, 12 HR, 33 RBI, .426 OBP, .576 SLG, 29 BB, 33 K
  
• REPORT: Sometimes paying the extra money that a Scott Boras client demands is worth it. Wieters had signability issues, but the Orioles bit the bullet and so far have to be thrilled with the dividends. Wieters is dominating high A, and hopefully will be promoted soon. He switch-hits, plays catcher, and hits for average and power. Enough said.

3. Tyler Mach, 2B, Phillies

• REPORT: Mach played last summer, but has not yet in 2008. I am not sure what is up with him, because he certainly hit well enough last summer to warrant playing time somewhere this year.

2. David Price, LHP, Rays (Vero Beach, A+)

• STATS: 2-0, 0.00 ERA, 18 IP, 8 H, 2 BB, 19 K, 0 HR
• REPORT: Finally, after hiding Price in extended spring training, the Rays are having him play some pro ball! There were reports a couple weeks ago that he struck out A-Rod twice while he was on a rehab assignment, and judging from his numbers in high-A so far, his stuff probably is that nasty. Price is not going to last in high-A much longer. Some think he might even land in the majors by the end of the year.

1. Matt LaPorta, OF, Brewers (Huntsville, AA)

• STATS: .286 AVG, 15 HR, 49 RBI, .395 OBP, .586 SLG, 31 BB, 43 K
• REPORT: Through early May, LaPorta's OPS was hovering around 1.100, so he has cooled off recently. His numbers are still impressive though, especially in the power department. Most scouts thought LaPorta would be limited to first base in the pros, but to this point he is proving them wrong. I wanted LaPorta to be a Mariner badly last year, but he did not fall to them (and for the record Phillipe Aumont looks like a very good pick). Still, it is fun to think what a guy like LaPorta at first base in the M's system would be like right now. Considering the team's offensive struggles, there would be a strong push to give him a chance in the majors.

Overall, this list of players has enjoyed more success than the 2006 group, even though none of them have made the majors yet. Looking back, I did not consider age enough, and I did not get a chance to see video of any of the players in action. With both of those points in mind, I set out to do better in 2008. Tomorrow is the start of my 2008 coverage, as I will release my 25 college prospects to watch for.

2008 Draft: A Look Back at 2006

The MLB Amateur Draft is this Thursday, and I will be covering it all week. Wednesday I will reveal the 25 college prospects I hope the Mariners are looking at this year, but today and tomorrow are all about taking a look back at previous years.

2006 was the first year that I really paid attention to the draft. Compared to the NFL and NBA drafts, there were few resources and limited buzz. To get familiar with the players, I did my own searching, to see what I could find. I set out with one simple axiom: I believed that the best college players will tend to develop into the best professional players. It sounds simple enough, and I expected to come up with a list similar to any other draft board.

Over the course of roughly six hours over one weekend, I scoured the internet for college baseball statistics and came up with a list of 15 players that intrigued me. I looked for players that dominated within their conferences, and gave preference to pitchers and first baseman, the two areas that I felt the Mariners farm system was weakest. I gave particular preference to strikeouts, favoring hitters that fanned very little, and pitchers that fanned a ton. Two years later, here is how my six-hour weekend experiment looks (all statistics are from 2008, current minor league team listed after parent organization if still in minors):

15. Whit Robbins, OF, Twins (Fort Myers, A+)

• STATS: .257 AVG, 2 HR, 20 RBI, .401 OBP, .386 SLG, 33 BB, 24 K
• REPORT: Robbins was in high A last year as well, and he struggled mightily before an injury ended his season. Originally a first baseman, he has been moved to the outfield this year. Robbins still lacks power and does not make contact as regularly as desired, but his great eye has returned this year. Whit's numbers across the board have improved significantly in 2008, but the fact remains that he is a 23-year-old putting up only decent numbers in high A. The high on-base percentage is encouraging, but frankly nothing else is. Still, if a hitter is going to excel in only one offensive skill, on-base percentage is the one. Robbins needs to develop more contact and/or power to become a more legitimate prospect though.

14. Evan Longoria, 3B, Rays

• STATS: .241 AVG, 7 HR, 28 RBI, .314 OBP, .434 SLG, 19 BB, 46 K
• REPORT: The consensus favorite to win the AL Rookie of the Year award this year, Longoria started this season in AAA, but was called up not even two weeks into the season, receiving a long-term contract along the way. While Evan's numbers are not overwhelming, they are respectable. He is swinging and missing a bunch more than he did in the minors, but the power is still there. Longoria remains a key piece to the Rays' bright future.
  

13. Chad Huffman, OF, Padres (San Antonio, AA)

• STATS: .315 AVG, 6 HR, 32 RBI, .412 OBP, .482 SLG, 33 BB, 32 K
  
• REPORT: I listed Huffman in 2006 as a first baseman, but he has been an outfielder as a professional. He started last year in high-A, and hit well enough to receive a promotion to AA halfway through last year. With a .793 OPS in AA last year, Huffman did not exactly struggle, but San Diego decided to start him at this level anyway. Now, Huffman's OPS is pushing .900 with a robust on-base percentage, placing him in line for a potential promotion to AAA in the near future.

12. Luke Hopkins, INF, Blue Jays

• REPORT: I have no clue what has happened to Hopkins. He played in the summer of 2006, but has not appeared in any professional game since.

11. Ryan Strieby, 1B, Tigers (Lakeland, A+)

• STATS: .247 AVG, 7 HR, 32 RBI, .333 OBP, .419 SLG, 23 BB, 52 K
  
• REPORT: After a decent season in low A last year, Strieby is putting together a mildly disappointing season in high A to this point. He has power, but also holes in his swing, as shown by the low average and rather high number of strikeouts. It is up to Strieby's solid power and plate discipline to counteract the holes in his swing, and to this point neither side is winning the battle. It makes Strieby a borderline prospect.

10. Brad Lincoln, RHP, Pirates (Hickory, A)

• STATS: 2-1 REC, 2.25 ERA, 16 IP, 13 H, 1 BB, 9 K, 2 HR
  
• REPORT: Lincoln was very highly regarded coming out of the draft, but promptly suffered a major arm injury that caused him to miss all of last season. His comeback begins in low A, where through three starts he has looked good. He had overpowering stuff in college, so if he regains his form he could move quickly, especially in an organization that needs talent as badly as the Pirates do.

9. Steven Wright, LHP, Indians (Kinston, A+)

• STATS: 2-3 REC, 2.38 ERA, 56.2 IP, 41 H, 13 BB, 49 K, 4 HR
  
• REPORT: I liked Wright coming out of college because of his great strikeout rate, and that followed him to the pros last year...but little else did. His ERA ballooned to 7.13 in 13 starts for Kinston in 2007, but obviously 2008 has treated him much better. Wright is inducing many more ground balls, and his command has also improved noticeably. He is a prime candidate to be promoted to AA for the second half of the season.

8. Wade LeBlanc, LHP, Padres (Portland, AAA)

• STATS: 5-4 REC, 7.28 ERA, 50.2 IP, 58 H, 23 BB, 44 K, 10 HR
  
• REPORT: LeBlanc is pretty much the opposite of Steven Wright. He had such an outstanding season in 2007 that San Diego felt he was ready for AAA in just his second full professional season. Unfortunately, little has gone LeBlanc's way in 2008. He is a fly-ball pitcher, but his fly-out rate has gone up considerably this year. In addition, he is simply getting hit a bunch harder. However, for every one of LeBlanc's terrible starts he has had a good one, so there is reason for hope. In fact, he has only allowed one run in his last two starts combined, so he may be settling in and returning to the form that got him to AAA in the first place.

7. Jon Jay, OF, Cardinals (Springfield, AA)

• STATS: .282 AVG, 5 HR, 25 RBI, .342 OBP, .422 SLG, 18 BB, 30 K
  
• REPORT: Jay started in Springfield last year, but got off to a slow start and eventually got injured for a part of the season. He was demoted to high A where he hit fairly well, but found himself in Springfield again at the start of 2008. He is hitting better, but the patience he showed in college is yet to follow him to the pros. More speed on the basepaths would not hurt either. At this point, Jay is looking like a future reserve outfielder in the majors.

6. Cole Gillespie, OF, Brewers (Huntsville, AA)

• STATS: .289 AVG, 9 HR, 38 RBI, .379 OBP, .529 SLG, 28 BB, 46 K, 6/6 SB/ATT
  
• REPORT: Gillespie put together a nice season in high A last year, but clearly has gone to the next level in AA this year. His slugging has gone up over 100 points despite also moving up a level, and his batting average has increased as well. Gillespie's strikeout rate is a little high, but if he can keep up everything else it is not of much concern.

5. Max Scherzer, RHP, Diamondbacks

• STATS: 0-2 REC, 2.17 ERA, 25.2 IP, 19 H, 11 BB, 29 K, 0 HR
  
• REPORT: Arizona had no choice but to call up Scherzer thanks to his complete dominance of AAA early in the season, and the majors to this point have not been a huge challenge for Scherzer either. He has good stuff, but what makes him especially tough to hit is a deceptive delivery. Max took nearly a full year to sign, so he has only been in the D'Backs system for a little less than a year now. Brandon Webb, Dan Haren, and Scherzer should be a killer trio for the next several years.

4. Eddie Degerman, RHP, Cardinals (Palm Beach, A+)

• STATS: 0-0 REC, 8.38 ERA, 9.2 IP, 13 H, 7 BB, 11 K, 2 HR
• REPORT: While Degerman is certainly off to a slow start this season, he has hardly pitched enough to say much about his 2008 season. Last year, he was dominant in low A and finally was promoted to Palm Beach, where he did struggle. At times Degerman lacks control, but his stuff is pretty good. He is 24 years old at this point though, which is rather old for high A. He needs to start advancing in a hurry to become a legitimate prospect.

3. Craig Cooper, OF, Padres (San Antonio, AA)

• STATS: .296 AVG, 4 HR, 26 RBI, .360 OBP, .438 SLG, 14 BB, 38 K
  
• REPORT: After playing primarily first base last year, the Padres have moved Cooper to the outfield. He has never hit for much power, so he was never going to be a prototypical first baseman. However, Cooper continues to hit for good average, though his strikeout rate continues to climb. He is not having an outstanding year in AA, but he is having a solid one. Cooper looks more like a good bench player in the majors than a good starter at this point though.

2. Andrew Miller, LHP, Marlins

• STATS: 4-3 REC, 5.33 ERA, 50.2 IP, 64 H, 20 BB, 44 K, 4 HR
  
• REPORT: Miller was part of the mega-trade that included Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis, so he is the only player on this list not in the organization that originally drafted him. Miller's stuff is as electric as ever, but he does not have great control of it. Still, it is so good that hitters have a hard time really squaring up on the ball. Miller is in the majors to stay, and his command will likely improve with time. I am not convinced he is the elite talent that most saw when he was drafted, but he still is one of the best pitchers from this draft.

1. Tim Lincecum, RHP, Giants

• STATS: 6-1 REC, 2.17 ERA, 62.1 IP, 55 H, 25 BB, 69 K, 3 HR
  
• REPORT: The numbers speak for themselves. Tim Lincecum has established himself not just as one of the best pitchers from this draft class, but also as one of the best pitchers in baseball. His diminutive stature and unique delivery concerned a number of teams, but he has become one of the greatest examples for why size does not matter as much as ability. There is little doubt that Lincecum has been the best player from the 2006 draft to this point, and he has left little room for someone to surpass him.

Continue to check the blog all week as the 2008 MLB draft approaches. Tomorrow I will review how my list of 2007 prospects have done to this point.