thoughts on the Mariners, MLB draft, and more homelinksdraftabout me

Game 162 Matters

I have five minutes to write a post. Maybe ten. Not much time, but I've got to write something.

So many things I wish I had the time to talk about with the M's game last night. I've got a church service to get to though, doubly important because my grandfather is getting recognized at this one. I still have my priorities outside of baseball, and I won't apologize for those.

I'm dressed nicely for church - a collared shirt, slacks, dress socks and dress shoes. My Night Court shirt is on underneath though.

Baseball, I think, plays out like garage sales most of the time. You go, rummage around, generally enjoy the hunt, but the vast majority of items are neither memorable nor disgusting. They're just there. But, every now and then, you find that one thing that you know you can't find anywhere else, the diamond in the rough, the relics that convince you the next garage sale is worth rummaging through too. Those matinee games where King Felix takes the mound and fires a perfect game - I know those are possible any given day, but highly unlikely. Still, I keep rummaging. I'll always rummage. Those unpredictable gems are too attractive to me.

However, the postseason is different, and make no mistake - the Mariners are playing in the postseason right now. I get that it's technically the regular season, and technically a one-game playoff with the A's would count as a regular season game. The regular season is the garage sale though. In the postseason there's no doubt how important or special the games are, and that makes each moment so much more precious.

So when the Mariners deliver a gem of a game that would stand out on any usual, mundane day, as they did last night, but the stakes are so high - that's special. They've made for a potentially legendary Felix day today.

Before I get too carried away, I get that the A's must lose today. They might night. Arguably, they shouldn't. That would mean they dropped 3 of 4 against the Rangers, the worst team in the American League. The Mariners also have to sweep the Angels, the best team in the American League. Game 163 is improbable.

However, the real victory is that game 163 is still a hypothetical. We've made it to game 162 and tomorrow might still exist. The Mariners and A's are the only teams in all of baseball that don't know what they'll be doing on Monday. The new wild card set-up has made these tighter races more likely, but they still strike different cities in different years.

It's our turn right now. I was thinking in the shower this morning about the last time game 162 meant so much. If we count game 144 in 1995 (they only played 144 that year thanks to the strike) that one was huge. I faintly remember the last game of 2000 mattering too.

That's it. That's the whole list. Today is a very special day. This is the kind of game that could live on through careers and stick in a lifetime of memory banks.

Happy Felix day.

Wild Card Picture

The American League wild card race remains unsettled with just 9 games (plus a suspended game in the 10th inning for Cleveland and Kansas City) to go. With so few games the race is essentially a sprint to the finish.

However, the sprint has a pattern and only so many outcomes possible at this point. I took some time this morning to visualize the remaining games in the AL Wild Card race by creating a mathematical graph. Graphs in math are comprised of nodes and paths, and for this exercise nodes are teams and paths are games between teams. I also weighted the nodes based on their odds to earn a wild card spot (according to FanGraphs), and weighted paths based on how many games remain between two teams, including today's games (even the one underway between Detroit and KC, plus the suspended game between KC and Cleveland).

There are six teams with odds remaining in the AL wild card race according to Fangraphs, ranging from the A's odds (92.7%) down to the Yankees odds (0.3%) with the Royals, Mariners, Tigers,* and Indians between, respectively. The Mariners, if you are interested, sit at 41.7% odds right now.

*I am using only wild card odds. The Tigers are at 95.7% odds to make the playoffs according to Fangraphs, but only 19.5% of those odds are wrapped up in the wild card. The rest of their odds represent their chance to win the AL Central. Similarly, the Royals' overall odds are split between the division and wild card, and for this graph only their wild card odds are considered.

Below is the resulting graph, which has two distinct cycles:

AL Central cycle

AL West/East cycle

One observation sticks out to me just looking at the two parts of this graph. The Central cycle has fewer teams and and fewer path than the East/West cycle. That means the East/West cycle is the more "open" of the two parts, which means there is more freedom for more teams in the East/West cycle to go on winning or losing streaks.

It is also interesting to consider where power is based on the graph. One way to measure a team's potential impact on the wild card races is to multiply the strength of the path by the weight of the nodes - essentially measuring how high the playoff implications are in each game remaining for each game in a team's remaining schedule. Here are the results of multiplying odds by nodes in the graph:
  1. Athletics (834.3)
  2. Royals (483.0)
  3. Angels (403.2)
  4. Mariners (375.3)
  5. Rangers (370.8)
  6. Tigers (264.3)
  7. White Sox (236.1)
  8. Indians (189.3)
  9. Phillies (185.4)
  10. Blue Jays (167.7)
  11. Astros (83.4)
  12. Twins (80.6)
  13. Rays (3.9)
  14. Yankees (2.7)
  15. Orioles (1.2)
  16. Red Sox (0.9)
The focus down the stretch will obviously be on the teams directly in the Wild Card race, but there is a strong case to be made that the Angels will actually decide who goes to the playoffs. They have a higher ranking than the Mariners thanks to their remaining series against the A's. Moreover, the Angels have the best record in baseball, so they have the talent to knock off wild card hopefuls along with the opportunity.

However, what kind of lineups will the Angels throw against teams the final week and a half of the season? How much will they rest their regulars since they have already clinched the AL West? Do they care enough about the A's or Mariners to try to steer one of them into the playoffs over the other? My guess is that the Angels will play hard through the A's series, but if they have the best record in the AL wrapped up by the time they face the M's (a real possibility), they will rest their starters liberally. That could bode well for the Mariners.

The graph also suggests that the Rangers and White Sox are best poised to play the part of playoff spoiler. Given the Rangers injury woes and the sudden departure of Ron Washington, plus the fact that Chicago has Chris Sale and Jose Abreu, I like Chicago's chances to spoil either the Royals or Tigers - though their better odds are balanced out by the smaller impact their potential victories would have on the wild card race.

Lastly, the games in the graph can be analyzed as a whole, particularly with so few games left. In such a short stretch basically every team would "likely" go .500. For instance, the Blue Jays have 6 total games in this graph and a 3-3 record in those games is easily the closest approximation to their actual winning percentage when compared to other two most likely outcomes (2-4 and 4-2). Therefore, by simply splitting games in this manner, pressure point games can be identified.

The Central, theoretically in this exercise, works out pretty nicely. The Angels clearly have a pressure point game though. They have 6 games total between the A's and Mariners, which would mean an expected 3 wins in this exercise. Whether they take 2 from Seattle and 1 from Oakland, or vice-versa, would make a huge difference in the Wild Card standings.

If everyone in the Wild Card hunt plays .500 ball the rest of the way, with the Angels taking 2 out of 3 from the A's and dropping 2 out of 3 to the M's at the end of the year, here are the final wild card standings:
  • (Tigers win AL Central with 90-72 record)
  • Athletics: 88-74
  • Mariners: 88-74
  • Royals: 88-74
Begrudgingly, I'll be an Angels fan for the next week, but only until Friday.

Enjoy the Moment

King Felix (wikimedia commons)
I haven't posted in forever, which from a business plan standpoint is a horrific idea. The Mariners have been quite interesting since my last post.

Good thing this blog isn't a business. I also moved and got ready for the school year (as a public school teacher), so life happens. Those are some big, time-consuming happenings in my life, along with following every game for the Mariners, which I have been doing. Ironically, I've probably followed the Mariners more closely the last month and a half, while I haven't been writing, than for most of the time I have maintained the Musings.

Quite honestly, I have more than come to terms with this blog's radio silence. It's really the best statement I could make about the Mariners right now. Don't read about them. Don't analyze contracts, WAR, future returns, upcoming free agency, draft classes, who will go where in the winter leagues and how they will do. There will be time for all of that, but that time isn't now.

Just go out and experience the 2014 Mariners, specifically the 2014 Mariners of tonight, September 13.

Tonight's game, as far as I'm concerned, is at the heart and soul of what sports are all about. There are tangential parts that have spun into massive industries (marketing, fantasy sports, the business and politics) that are fascinating in their own right. However, tonight's game is guaranteed to be special. The only question is how special.

King Felix takes the mound against the A's tonight. The Mariners are making this a "black out" night, and the game promises to be a near sell-out, if not a total sell-out. If the Mariners win they take over first place in the wild card standings.*

*They might be tied in first place, depending on results of other games, but that doesn't really change the point or tenor of this moment.

Tonight will be amazing. This is an event that will draw 40,000 people together in unison, to cheer on a team that at least like and a player they absolutely love. Remember for years all the chatter about trading Felix? The analysis of the roster and contract flexibility? That's all part of the back story that makes tonight so special. Felix is still ours, and he has embraced the franchise and city, hoping to be the man that guides the Mariners back to the playoffs. Tonight's game wasn't guaranteed, but here it is, and we get to celebrate it together.

Sports has many ugly aspects, particularly in the modern age of massive media contracts and the scrutiny that comes with it. The NFL has reminded us several times over in the past week just how ugly modern sports can look when things go wrong. However, despite the distasteful and blatant cash grabs of modern professional sports, I still believe there must be something so compelling about sports for all the money and opportunities to be there in the first place.

Tonight's Mariners game is that compelling space. This game will be fun for bandwagon fans and amazing for those who dare stick it out through thick and thin. There have been those random moments - like when Felix starts a midweek matinee against Tampa Bay and never gets around to allowing a baserunner - where it's easy to dream of what could be if he ever gets to pitch on a bigger stage. That dream, the dream I'm sure just about every Mariners fan has harbored in their mind and soul for the past decade, becomes a reality tonight.

Sports, at its best, engenders hope, perseverance, determination, celebration, and unity. All of these traits will come together tonight at Safeco Field.

A win, obviously, would be huge, and make tonight much better. However, the existence of this game - King Felix in September with seismic playoff implications on the line - is such a monumental victory. Games like this don't come around often. Playoff chases like these don't come around often either. Mariners fans have no issues appreciating this, given the current playoff draught.

I, for one, have largely tucked away FIP, xFIB, K/BB ratios, BABIP, and the rest of sabermetrics' alphabet soup for the offseason. The stats help a team get to tonight's game, but they can't quantify what it means to watch our face of the franchise, a true Mariners hero, go after a playoff spot that has eluded Seattle's grasp for 13 years. I can analyze the game all I want to in the future. Tonight is for experiencing the game at its finest.