The 2016 Tacoma Rainiers

Cheney Stadium (Wikimedia Commons, user CougsGo509)

I live in Tacoma and thus spend more time at Cheney Stadium than Safeco Field. This may or may not show more on the blog this year. We shall see. I have an idea in my mind to spend more time documenting my time at the ballpark with blog posts.

Regardless, the Rainiers are a particularly interesting bunch to analyze with the transition from Jack Zduriencik to Jerry Dipoto. In fact, Dipoto's remake of the Rainiers roster is arguably more dramatic than what he did at the major league level. I am interested to see how the new-look Rainiers play ball. Here is the 2016 Rainiers roster, broken into different groups based on some of the typical ways that fans often look for ballplayers at minor league games:

Familiar faces: RHP Mayckol Guaipe, INF Shawn O'Malley, OF Stefen Romero, SS Chris Taylor

The brevity of the list above says all you need to know about the sweeping changes, and even within this group there will be differences. Guaipe is ticketed for the bullpen again, but it seems likely that Romero will see more time at first base, O'Malley will see more time at shortstop, and Taylor will see more time at second and third base.

Familiar Mariners faces: LHP James Paxton, LHP David Rollins, C Mike Zunino

Jerry Dipoto built up enough depth at the major league level to push these guys down to Tacoma. Zunino and Paxton still have room to develop, Rollins is probably mostly depth at this point stashed away if needed. I am curious and excited to see Zunino get some at-bats in AAA. He doesn't need to hit much to be a quality everyday catcher in the majors with his excellent defense, and I still see a good hitter in his stroke and bat speed. He could be the most exciting Rainier to watch this season.

Prospects: LHP Paul Fry, CF Boog Powell

Paul Fry does not get a ton of publicity, but we should find out soon how much of a prospect he is. I think he can at least be as good as George Sherrill from about a decade ago now. Relief prospects aren't often very sexy, but they are still prospects. Boog Powell also gets mixed reviews as a prospect because he has limited tools. He needs to be a good OBP-contact-speed-defense type of player to make a mark in the majors.

Fringe prospects: RHP Jonathan Aro, RHP Justin De Fratus, OF Dario Pizzano, RHP Donn Roach, RHP Adrian Sampson, SS Tyler Smith, RHP Joe Weiland

These are mostly players unlikely to generate much buzz but also not all that far from the majors. Aro was picked up from the Red Sox for nothing and for a while looked like a real contender to break camp with the Mariners when bullpen injuries piled up. Then Donn Roach looked even closer with his fabulous spring. De Fratus was supposed to be in the M's bullpen but struggled mightily, so he heads to Tacoma to see if he can find whatever he has lost over the past year. Sampson was acquired at last year's trade deadline from the Pirates when J.A. Happ got shipped out. He has a solid mix of pitches with some feel for them but nothing overwhelming. Pizzano has hit at every level so far but lacks any real strong tool to get noticed. However, if he continues to hit, he seems likely to get up to the majors at some point in the next year or two. Smith is likely organizational depth, but this year is also his first taste of AAA ball. Who knows? Joe Wieland is the opening day starter for the Rainiers, for whatever that is worth. He has some MLB experience sprinkled over parts of multiple seasons but is yet to break through despite relatively solid success in the minors.

AAA veterans: IF Make Baxter, RHP Casey Coleman, RHP Steve Johnson, C Steven Lerud, INF Ed Lucas, INF Efren Navarro, RHP Blake Parker, OF Daniel Robertson

These are the players who make or break AAA seasons but have a minimal impact at the major league level. Every now and then a player in this category puts up a monster season that generates some speculation that they may get called up, especially if they happen to play a position of need for the MLB team. These are the kinds of guys that Jack Zduriencik almost never picked up so they are a breath of fresh air to me at least. Moreover, the position players all bring defensive versatility and generally good plate discipline. In other words, these are skilled players with limited tools, which is the opposite of who Zduriencik went after. It remains to be seen if this strategy ultimately pays off but it is a clear contrast between the two GMs.

Final Notes

The 2016 Rainiers do not have any glamorous prospects, in part because the whole Mariners system lacks those type of players at this point. However, on paper, this looks like a team that could be pretty good in AAA and should not get blown apart by a fledgling MLB team above them. This Rainiers team might have a degree of continuity that Tacoma has not seen for some time.

Rainiers lineup cards should be fun to check for a particularly geeky fan. It's relatively clear who will start regularly, but where will they line up? In particular, most of the infielders have experience at many positions and it is likely that Dipoto wants them to log innings around the diamond. I would think the defensive versatility makes this Rainiers team fun to manage, and we might get to see a bit more of Pat Listach's style and strategies.

Center field will be another fun position to watch. Boog Powell is likely to get more playing time out there than most, but both Daniel Robertson and Shawn O'Malley have experience out there and might be more likely to see time with the Mariners in the near future.

The basepaths might become a focal point as well. The Rainiers don't have many sluggers like they tended to have under Jack Zduriencik. They have quite a bit more speed though. How much will they look to use it? Does Pat Listach like running? What does Jerry Dipoto think about base stealing strategies? This Rainiers team could end up hitting a bit like the Kansas City Royals.

Bottom line, many of my best baseball memories are from Tacoma games. Minor League Baseball is fun, especially with a little knowledge of the players. The Rainiers under Jack Zduriencik had some cartoonishly flawed player who were incredibly fun to watch because when things went right they were amazing, but when they were off...they were way off (looking at you, Dan Cortes, Carlos Peguero, Jesus Montero, etc.) This year's team does not feature the same boom-or-bust potential but could put a steady, exciting product on the field, especially if they run the bases aggressively. There will be new memories made, that much is certain.

Mariners Minor League Rosters

The Mariners set their opening day roster (obviously), and once that was set they could also set their minor league rosters.

I was pretty interested to see the minor league rosters for a few reasons:

1. I live in Tacoma, so I see quite a bit of Rainiers action in person.
2. I enjoy following prospects in the minor leagues.
3. Jerry Dipoto gutted the M's player development leadership.

The third point is probably the most significant. The rosters are our first real glimpse into who Dipoto and Co. like and how they plan on going about developing prospects.

Without further ado, the rosters, with some musings below:

Org Chart.pdf by Ryan Divish


Notably absent

• Alex Jackson, Gareth Morgan, Nick Neidert - In general, recent prep picks made by the Zduriencik regime appear ticketed for extended spring training. This is not necessarily a lack of confidence in any of their abilities, but rather a preference for slower development. Just about anybody would push along players more slowly than Jack Zduriencik. He was about as aggressive as they come at promoting players through the minors.

Clinton (low A)

• Rayder Ascanio received surprising playing time (at least to me) in spring training the last few years. Both the Zduriencik and Dipoto regimes seem to see something they like in him. This is his first taste of full season pro ball. Don't be surprised if he doesn't hit much because Clinton plays in a pitcher's league. Low strikeout totals would be a good sign.
• Braden Bishop will probably get some press coverage because he went to the University of Washington. Scouting reports on him out of college raved about his defensive ability but wondered how well his bat would do. My initial guess is that Dipoto does not believe much in Bishop's bat. My gut is that Zduriencik would have placed Bishop a level higher to get his hitting in the more friendly California League confines and to push his development. But then again, Zduriencik tended to push every prospect he liked at an uncomfortably fast rate with generally poor results.

Bakersfield (high A)

• Stock is rising: Drew Jackson tore up the Northwest League in Everett last year, and apparently Dipoto is a believer. This is one of the more aggressive roster placements he made in the minors. Jackson's trajectory and skillset, very early on, remind me some of Chris Taylor. Austin Cousino, Joe DeCarlo, and Gianfranco Wawoe also find themselves promoted from last season, suggesting that they are on the bona fide prospect track.
• Stock is falling: Tyler Marlette, Tyler Pike, and Austin Wilson all seemed like reasonable candidates to open up in AA. Pike is recovering from an arm injury and overall tough year, so perhaps that played into the decision to start him in high A. The same can't be said for Marlette or Wilson. Frankly, I wonder if Dipoto sees Austin Wilson as a real prospect at this point given this assignment.

Jackson (AA)

• Stock is rising: Tyler O'Neill has a chance to blossom and become known beyond the Mariners organization. He put up huge power numbers in high A last year. With similar production in AA he will assert himself as the best hitting prospect the Mariners have. If you pay attention to one player in the whole minor league system in 2016, this is the guy to pick. Tim Lopes also got promoted from Bakersfield and could garner more attention with a solid season in Jackson.
• Stock is falling: Steven Baron, Sam Gaviglio, and Jordan Pries all logged time in AAA last year, with Baron even reaching the majors. They are all likely considered organizational depth at this point with these assignments.

Tacoma (AAA)

• Dario Pizzano quietly hit well in AA last year and has now matriculated to the last level before the majors. He probably is too low on the outfield depth chart to make it to the majors this year, but another good season with the bat might get him some attention. He hasn't received enough notoriety to this point, and I am excited to watch him in Tacoma.
• Jonathan Aro and Donn Roach were minor league signings, and maybe not exactly prospects, but nonetheless players whom could reach the majors this year if they play well in Tacoma.
• Paul Fry had a monster year out of the bullpen last year in Bakersfield and Jackson. He is also left-handed. He does not garner nearly enough attention with how good he is and how close he is to the majors. He is among the reasons to think that Charlie Furbush's oft-injured (but highly effective) pitching arm might get traded in the not-so-distant future.
• Mike Zunino and James Paxton are known contributors who both have things to work on. They might be among the first test cases for how much better (or worse?!) the new Mariners player development system under Jerry Dipoto works. Both are clearly talented, and with a little polishing could contribute at the Major League level.

I will likely dive deeper with the Rainiers tomorrow. All in all, it seems that Dipoto and Co. are more cautious with their minor league promotions than Zduriencik was, which is a breath of fresh air. There are also some early hints at players they particularly like, as well as some they believe in a bit less. Ultimately, what will be most interesting is how players fare under new tutelage.

Well, That Happened

The Mariners were due to lose an opening day. For all their struggles in the past decade, the one thing they did exceedingly well is win on opening day. They were vying for their tenth (?!) straight win on opening day this afternoon, deep in the heart and heat of Texas.

So, I suppose the Mariners were not true to the blue with their 3-2 loss opening up the 2016 season. However, it certainly felt like a true to the blue kind of game.

The Mariners will not have another loss like this opener. It was an absurd level of strange.

The Mariners only allowed one hit all day, and even that was a measly blooper. On a different day we could have been talking about a no-hitter, which will get buried in all the other opening day stories. The Rangers struggled mightily to square up pitches hurled from King Felix and newly minted lefty reliever Mike Montgomery.

Robinson Cano and Kyle Seager both went deep off of Cole Hamels. Granted, both were solo shots (echoes of last year's dinger-happy offense), but Hamels is far from the easiest southpaw for lefties to tee off against. The heart of the M's order dealt legitimate damage against one of the better pitchers in baseball.

Really, it is hard to dial up a loss out of this collection of performances the M's put together today. Yes, there were some troubling walks and errors, but that was it. It's difficult for an offense to bunch together walks and errors to make a big inning. Literally everything that was bad about this game for the Mariners happened to all happen in the bottom of the fifth inning, and that was just enough to give the Rangers the victory.

Give the Rangers credit for making their awkwardly explosive fifth inning stick, but this opening day loss stings hard. It is probably a bit too strong to say the Mariners should have won today, but they certainly could have. I would not have complained if the Mariners had found a way to win.

This was only game 1 on the season, with a whopping 161 more to go. On some level the oddity of this opening game should be whisked away and forgotten. It was very strange. It won't happen again. It didn't do anything to suggest the Mariners cannot contend.

However, I think the Mariners are about a .500 team that will battle with a large handful of teams for a wild card spot. On paper, it sure looks like every game will count in the American League with how bunched the whole league looks. That's why today's loss stings so much. It is hardly a nail in the coffin, but with so many mediocre teams battling for only a few spots, the luckiest teams will rise to the top. Lady luck shined down on the Rangers today and left the Mariners wondering what could have been. Nobody in this year's American League can afford to many funky losses like the Mariners just suffered.