MLB Projected Standings, Week 3

This was a week of reckoning in the National League, where the contenders really pulled away from the pretenders. Meanwhile the American League remains about as muddled as the start of the season.

I should mention that I made an adjustment to the formula this week which likely is driving some of the significant changes. I was not accounting for different numbers of games played and there is a wide enough spread of games played so far this season for that to make a real difference. You can read about the model here, or keep on reading for the updated standings (change in win total from last week in parentheses).

MLB Projected Standings, Week 3:

AL West	AL Central	AL East
Astros, 83-79 (+1), 0 GB	Indians, 88-74 (+3), 0 GB	Red Sox, 85-77 (+2), 0 GB
Mariners, 80-82 (+1), 3 GB	White Sox, 84-78 (0), 4 GB	Orioles, 83-79 (0), 2 GB
Athletics 79-83 (+1), 4 GB	Royals, 81-81 (-1), 7 GB	Yankees, 83-79 (0), 2 GB
Angels, 78-84 (-3), 5 GB	Tigers, 80-82 (-3), 8 GB	Blue Jays, 83-79 (+1), 2 GB
Rangers, 76-86 (-2), 7 GB	Twins, 76-86 (+1), 12 GB	Rays, 79-83 (0), 6 GB
.
NL West	NL Central	NL East
Dodgers, 98-64 (+9), 0 GB	Cubs, 100-62 (+9), 0 GB	Mets, 96-66 (+9), 0 GB
Giants, 86-76 (+1), 12 GB	Pirates, 88-74 (+4), 12 GB	Nationals, 94-68 (+6), 2 GB
Diamondbacks, 75-87 (-1), 23 GB	Cardinals, 85-77 (+1), 15 GB	Marlins, 77-85 (-3), 19 GB
Rockies, 74-88 (-4), 24 GB	Reds, 71-91 (-7), 29 GB	Phillies, 68-95 (-7), 29 GB
Padres, 72-90 (-3), 26 GB	Brewers, 70-92 (-5), 20 GB	Braves, 61-101 (-8), 35 GB

Wild card play-in games: Orioles at White Sox, Giants at Nationals

ALDS match-ups: play-in vs. Indians, Astros vs. Red Sox

NLDS match-ups: play-in vs. Cubs, Mets vs. Dodgers

Some musings:

• Turns out some of the highest WAR teams weren't among the teams that had played the most games. This explains some of the huge boosts in the NL. However, this could also be a "tipping point" week of sorts. The adjustment I made in the formula this week would have made no difference with the preseason projections. So, just three weeks in, the best in the NL have asserted themselves as even better, while the worse are worse.
• Meanwhile, in the American League, the movement remains shockingly minimal. The drastic contrasts between the two leagues at the moment will be interesting to watch, particularly in a few months when the trade deadline looms. Will anybody in the American League be sellers?
• The Cubs and Dodgers are a cut above everyone else in baseball at the moment. Don't sleep on some of the mediocre AL records though. There are good teams in the league. For instance, before adjusting for schedules, the Indians have an expected rest of season winning percentage of .542 and the Nationals come in at .545 - basically the same even though the Nationals project to win 6 more games. The difference is driven some by the Nats hot start, and also some by the lack of very bad teams in the AL when compared to the NL.
• Six NL teams are projected to have worse records than the worst in the whole American League. I wonder if that fact will get enough attention as the season wears on and it becomes obvious that the NL will have playoff teams with better records than the AL until some AL team goes crazy at the trade deadline.

MLB Projected Standings, Week 2:

The season is still young, but a little less young. This season suggests that, at least in 2016, you cannot win a division in April but you can lose it. That's bad news for teams that couldn't figure out how to win at home this past week - yes, that's me staring my own team right in the face, those TRUE TO THE BLUE Mariners. Plenty of season remains though, and thankfully for them the rest of the AL West looks mediocre at best.

You can read about the model here, or keep on reading for the updated standings (change in win total from last week in parentheses).

MLB Projected Standings, Week 2:

AL West	AL Central	AL East
Astros, 82-80 (-2), 0 GB	Indians, 85-77 (0), 0 GB	Red Sox, 83-79 (-1), 0 GB
Angels, 81-81 (+1), 1 GB	White Sox, 84-78 (+2), 1 GB	Yankees, 83-79 (0), 0 GB
Mariners, 79-83 (-2), 3 GB	Tigers, 83-79 (+2), 2 GB	Orioles, 83-79 (+2), 0 GB
Rangers, 78-84 (+1), 4 GB	Royals, 82-80 (+3), 3 GB	Blue Jays, 82-80 (0), 1 GB
Athletics, 78-84 (0), 4 GB	Twins, 75-87 (-3), 10 GB	Rays, 79-83 (-1), 4 GB
.
NL West	NL Central	NL East
Dodgers, 89-73 (-1), 0 GB	Cubs, 91-71 (+1), 0 GB	Nationals, 88-74 (+2), 0 GB
Giants, 85-77 (-1), 4 GB	Cardinals, 84-78 (+2) 7 GB	Mets, 87-75 (-2), 1 GB
Rockies, 78-84 (+1), 11 GB	Pirates, 84-78 (-1), 7 GB	Marlins, 80-82 (0), 8 GB
Diamondbacks, 76-86 (-1), 13 GB	Reds, 78-84 (-1), 13 GB	Phillies, 74-88 (+3), 14 GB
Padres, 75-87 (0), 14 GB	Brewers, 75-87 (0), 16 GB	Braves, 69-93 (-4), 19 GB

Wild card play-in games: Yankees at White Sox, Giants at Mets

ALDS match-ups: play-in vs. Indians, Astros vs. Red Sox

NLDS match-ups: play-in vs. Cubs, Nationals vs. Dodgers

Some musings:

• The Braves and Twins are both winless and that seems to show rather loudly in the standings. The Braves in particular are on their way to a special kind of awful if they can "keep up" the losing. I wonder how extreme rises and drops can be with this model, and losing four games over the course of one week might prove shockingly large. Meanwhile, the Twins look like the first AL team to fall out of playoff contention, thanks in large part to their winless start.
• The Orioles hot start has garnered buzz, but I had them projected as a slightly worse than .500 team. They are exceeding expectations in my system too, but color me a bit less surprised by their start.
• Also, since I am on the topic of the Orioles, the projection method actually gives decimal victories and I round them to the nearest whole win. This is how I break ties, which is why the Yankees make the playoffs over the Orioles in this week's projections. The Yankees have 83.0 projected victories, the Orioles 82.9, and the Tigers 82.6.
• I mused last week that the Cardinals took a critical blow last week when they got swept by the Pirates. The damaged lasted a whole week. I stand corrected.
• The Cubs hot start has garnered more than its fair share of attention, but so far the hype is not out of proportion. They are the best team in baseball until further notice.
• The Royals are beating my projection system so far, fueling my own speculation that WAR-based systems miss something that the Royals do exceedingly well. They continue to beat WAR projections of how good they should be by significant margins, and the sample size continues to grow.

MLB Projected Standings, Week 1

How much has the outlook of the season altered after two to three games (or four in a few cases) for every team?!

Not much, as it turns out. That's probably a good sign for the model. You can read about the model here, or keep on reading for the updated standings (change in win total from last week in parentheses).

MLB Projected Standings, Week 1:

AL West	AL Central	AL East
Astros, 84-78 (-1), 0 GB	Indians, 85-77 (0), 0 GB	Red Sox, 84-78 (0), 0 GB
Mariners, 81-81 (+1), 3 GB	White Sox, 82-80 (+1), 3 GB	Yankees, 83-79 (0), 1 GB
Angels, 80-82 (0), 4 GB	Tigers, 81-81 (+1), 4 GB	Blue Jays, 82-80 (0), 2 GB
Athletics, 78-84 (-1), 6 GB	Royals, 79-83 (0), 6 GB	Orioles, 81-81 (+1), 3 GB
Rangers, 77-85 (-2), 7 GB	Twins, 78-84 (-2), 7 GB	Rays, 80-82 (0), 4 GB
.
NL West	NL Central	NL East
Dodgers, 90-72 (+1), 0 GB	Cubs, 90-72 (+1), 0 GB	Mets, 89-73 (+1), 0 GB
Giants, 86-76 (+1), 4 GB	Pirates, 85-77 (+2), 5 GB	Nationals, 86-76 (0), 3 GB
Rockies, 77-85 (+1), 13 GB	Cardinals, 82-80 (-2), 8 GB	Marlins, 80-82 (0), 9 GB
Diamondbacks, 77-85 (-2), 13 GB	Reds, 79-83 (+2), 11 GB	Braves, 73-89 (0), 16 GB
Padres, 75-87 (-1), 15 GB	Brewers, 75-87 (0), 15 GB	Phillies, 71-91 (-1), 18 GB

Wild card play-in games: Blue Jays at Yankees, Giants at Nationals

ALDS match-ups: play-in vs. Indians, Astros vs. Red Sox

NLDS match-ups: play-in vs. Cubs, Mets vs. Dodgers

Some musings:

• No change in the playoff participants or match-ups, though the Astros and Red Sox flip-flopped home field advantage. Again, this is hardly surprising with only a few games in the books.
• Early season series do matter. The Pirates-Cardinals tilt shook up the NL Central quite a bit thanks to Pittsburgh's sweep. There was a four game swing between the Pirates and Cardinals in the standings. The Cardinals tumbled all the way from being the closest challenger to the Cubs to equidistant from the Pirates and Reds in the standings. This is partly due to Cincinnati's strong start, but still...that's a remarkable change for so few games.
• The most noteworthy series in the American League was the Mariners-Rangers tilt, which was not too surprising. They both opened the season with roughly .500 season projections, placing them in the fringe of playoff contention. There was a three game swing between those two teams in the standings, and it was enough to push Texas to the AL West basement for the time being and to shove the Mariners within a game of a wild card spot. Nearly half of the American League (7 out of 15 teams) have projected win totals between 80 and 82 games, so the Texas tumble to 77 wins is probably bigger than it seems. While on one hand they aren't that many games away from the final wild card spot, they are also looking up at almost everyone in the league. That's a ton of teams to leapfrog, even if they are all mediocre.
• I expect more movement in next week's standings because the update will include two series' worth of games (5-7) for each team instead of just one.