Today the Mariners announced that they had re-assigned one player to minor league camp (RHP Aaron Small), and sent four others to AAA Tacoma (RHP Sean Green, LHP Eric O'Flaherty, C Rene Rivera, OF Jeremy Reed). Though the Mariners had made several cuts before today's round, no one was cut before today that was thought to have a shot at making the ballclub. Especially with the four optioned to AAA out of the picture, the opening day roster has begun to take shape. As of now, the Mariners have 33 players in camp and must be down to 25 in a matter of days. Here is who is still left (* = a player not on the 40-man roster):POSITION PLAYERS
Kenji Johjima (C)
Jamie Burke (C)*
Richie Sexson (1B)
Ben Broussard (1B/LF/RF)
Jose Lopez (2B)
Jose Vidro (2B/DH)
Yuniesky Betancourt (SS)
Gookie Dawkins (SS/3B)*
Rey Ordonez (SS)*
Adrian Beltre (3B)
Raul Ibanez (LF)
Ichiro (CF)
Adam Jones (CF)
Jose Guillen (RF)
Willie Bloomquist (IF/OF)
Mike Morse (IF/OF)
PITCHING STAFF
Felix Hernandez (RHP)
Jarrod Washburn (LHP)
Miguel Batista (RHP)
Horacio Ramirez (LHP)
Jeff Weaver (RHP)
Cesar Jimenez (LHP)
Arthur Rhodes (LHP)*
George Sherrill (LHP)
Jake Woods (LHP)
Jon Huber (RHP)
Justin Lehr (RHP)*
Mark Lowe (RHP)
Julio Mateo (RHP)
Brandon Morrow (RHP)*
J.J. Putz (RHP)
Chris Reitsma (RHP)
Sean White (RHP)
With Rene Rivera being sent down today the Mariners have only two catchers remaining in camp, which means Kenji Johjima (of course) and more surprisingly Jamie Burke will be on the ballclub by process of elimination. Sexson, Lopez, Betancourt, Beltre, Vidro, Ibanez, Ichiro, and Guillen are all locked in as starters on the club, and Willie Bloomquist was a shoo-in as a reserve at the start of the spring, but he has removed any doubt with his performance as well. So, that is a total of 11 position players with spot on the squad, and since it looks like the M's are going to carry 12 pitchers, 2 vacant reserve positions remain. Since the Mariners would probably like one of these guys to bat left-handed, Ben Broussard has likely made the ballclub because he is the only left-handed hitter among those that are not already on the ballclub. Between him and Willie Bloomquist, the Mariners have all the defensive positions covered, so they have the luxury of selecting the best player out of the pool remaining. If I were them, I would go with Mike Morse because he has the best bat of everyone left, the most versatility of anyone left, and he also is already on the 40-man roster.
Now on to the pitching staff. Hernandez, Washburn, Batista, Ramirez, and Weaver are the starting five for sure. However, the bullpen is very much up for grabs. Jake Woods figures to return to the long-relief role he filled so well last year, Chris Reitsma will be the set-up man, and Dudley-favorite Julio Mateo is sure to pitch in some crucial inning when better options are available (though I should say Mateo has looked good this spring, and I anticipate a good year from him). J.J. Putz would be a lock to make the team as well, but the Mariners may opt to put him on the DL to start the year if he is hurt bad enough. I think they won't though, so I will lightly pencil him in on the opening day roster. So, 9 of the 12 pitching spots are taken, leaving 3 to be decided between 8 hurlers. Mark Lowe can be eliminated because he is still hurt, so really there are only seven competing. Arthur Rhodes and George Sherrill should be on the club, because Hargrove really wants three lefties, especially since one (Woods) fills the long-relief role. That leaves only one position up for grabs among Jon Huber, Justin Lehr, Brandon Morrow, and Sean White. Of this quartet, Lehr has probably been the most unimpressive (though Huber is right there with him), and he is also a non-roster invitee. So, his chances of making the Mariners are slim to none.
That leaves Huber, Morrow, and White. Huber was impressive in his September call-up last year, but he has been roughed up a couple times this spring. Brandon Morrow has been dominant, and he's got the best stuff of this trio. However, he has virtually no professional experience and he's also not on the 40-man roster. As for Sean White, he has also looked good this spring and if the Mariners don't keep him they will have to return him to the Braves, since he was a Rule 5 draft pick. The last bullpen spot is easily the toughest decision the Mariners have to make, but if I were making the call I would go with Sean White, because he and Huber are relative equal in my eyes but Huber can be sent down; and also because I would prefer to see Brandon Morrow develop as a starter in the minors (plus adding Morrow would kick another guy off the 40-man roster).
So, here is who I think the 2007 Mariners will be:
STARTING LINEUP
Kenji Johjima, C
Richie Sexson, 1B
Jose Lopez, 2B
Yuniesky Betancourt, SS
Adrian Beltre, 3B
Raul Ibanez, LF
Ichiro, CF
Jose Guillen, RF
Jose Vidro, DH
BENCH
Willie Bloomquist
Ben Broussard
Mike Morse
Jamie Burke
STARTING ROTATION
Felix Hernandez
Jarrod Washburn
Miguel Batista
Horacio Ramirez
Jeff Weaver
BULLPEN
Jake Woods, Long Relief
Sean White, Long Relief
Julio Mateo, Middle Relief
George Sherrill, Specialty Lefty
Arthur Rhodes, Left-Handed Set-Up
Chris Reitsma, Right-Handed/Primary Set-Up
J.J. Putz, Closer
In this scenario, two non-roster invitees make the squad, so two players must be removed from the 4o-man roster. To open up one spot I would put Mark Lowe on the 60-day DL, and for the last one I would designate Sean Green for assignment. If J.J. Putz starts the year on the DL, I would call up Jon Huber, but my feeling is that the Mariners will choose Morrow instead. If Morrow is added to the roster, my guess is Travis Blackley is designated for assignment. I've often criticize Bavasi and Dudley for how they have handled the roster, but so far I like what I see. I'm scared they are going to kill Morrow's future (though I think he would be a solid reliever), but I'm even more scared they are going to keep either Rey Ordonez or Gookie Dawkins around. The M's are due for a brain freeze at some point this spring.
I'm not convinced that if the M's put morrow in the 'pen that it would ruin his future as a starter. Plenty of great major league starters began their carrers in the bullben. I think it just gives them a taste of the hitters they will be starting against in the future. All this talk about "stretching out" pitchers is overrated. However, I do agree that he has had almost no professional baseball experience. That would be my reason for putting him in the minors. With that said, I wouldn't keep him there for long.
ReplyDelete"Between him and Willie Bloomquist, the Mariners have all the defensive positions covered, so they have the luxury of selecting the best player out of the pool remaining."
ReplyDeleteUh ... no, they don't, not in the worst-case scenario. Consider: Collision in shallow centerfield between either of Lopez/Betancourt, and Ichiro, Grade II+/III concussions for both players. What happens? Best case scenario: Willie to CF, Vidro to 2B/SS, no DH. Morse is a needed part. Or, maybe slightly better: Willie at 2B/SS, Broussard in right, and Jose Guillen shifts to CF.
A similar thing happened in the '03 post-season for the BoSox, they had just put in Damian Jackson. RetroSheet puts it thusly (10/06/03, A's 7th): "Dye singled to center [Dye out at second (shortstop to third)]; horrendous
collision between Damon and Jackson on fly ball as they hit
heads; Damon unconscious for a time, leaves in ambulance; report
is concussion and will have overnight hospitalization; as he is
loaded into ambulance, Damon raises right hand to crowd, which
gives huge ovation; alert play by Garciaparra and Muellar to get
Dye trying for 2B. Delay of about 10 minutes."
Jackson, however, was their extra middle-infielder and the BoSox left him IN THE GAME even though he could have DIED from a slight jostling of the skull.
I'm just trying to say, this could be serious business.
Ordonez, of course, is a shattered husk of a player who was never very good to begin with. Ugh. His last major league experience? In 2004? .164/.190/.262. That ... that's mighty impressive there.
Morrow: Please, consider the following: The Cleveland Indians have a guy, Adam Miller, drafted in 1983, they have very similar repetoires, the Indians 'pen is in shambles, Miller, this spring, went 14 shut-out innings allowing 11 baserunners. Here's a quote about him from 03/23/07, "“We’ve never felt like Adam was a year away,” general manager Mark Shapiro said. “We’ve always felt that he could impact our team sometime this year. We felt he had the level of talent that, whenever that time came, it would be evident. When he puts everything together, he can dominate the competition.”"
And another:
""He's a man," pitching coach Carl Willis said. "You watch the way he walks around this clubhouse, and he's very respectful, but he has a presence about him. Even on the mound, he has that presence.""
And a third:
""I don't think anyone is surprised at what he's come in and done this spring," manager Eric Wedge said."
Y'know where Miller is starting this season? AAA Buffalo. Let's look at some other guys. Tim Lincecum? Taken in the same draft, a lot of people would've preferred for the M's to have him. He hasn't had the same stellar spring, but still, what do the Giants do? Transaction wires reveal this:
SF Giants optioned Tim Lincecum to Triple-A.
Andrew Miller? He has actual Major League innings due to his contract demands.
Detroit Tigers optioned Andrew Miller to Triple-A.
So what does Billy Bavasi have to say?
"
“Originally, we were sending him down to the minors (to) start him,” general manager Bill Bavasi said. “If he makes the club in relief, it alters how you develop him as a starter.
“Now, we may have to look at something in the offseason – sending him to a half-season of winter ball, perhaps, and have him re-establish a third or fourth pitch there. But that would depend on how many innings he gets between spring training and the regular season.”"
Here's where I show how Grover is totally out of touch with the world: "When Hargrove considers the debate about assigning Morrow a big-league roster spot, he recalls the soul-searching once invested over a flaky Cleveland Indians prospect he wanted on his big-league team in 1994.
“Manny Ramirez,” Hargrove said. “He turned out OK. People called me an idiot then, too.”"
Consider, Morrow has going for him, the following: Counting spring training: 24 innings of professional ball, having never gotten used to pitching on a 5 day schedule, but pssh, that's nothing. Anyone can do that, right? Right? Ohhhhh, sorry. Only having one (1!!!!) good season in college. Seriously. Have you looked at Morrow's frosh and soph seasons? He's pitched three innings in high A ball. THREE. He has had 8 1/3 innings of "major league" success, wherein he's been facing ... I don't know. Can't find box scores. Spring training rosters, regardless.
Manny, in 1994, had just posted the following line in AAA: .317/.424/.690 in 145 at-bats at the age of 21. After being promoted for doing the following in AA: .340/.414/.581 in 344 at-bats
Ah, Baseball Cube, what would I do without you?
And those guys who started their major league experience in the pen? Yeah, they all never started in professional baseball. Wait. Wait. No, no, that's wrong. I'm sorry.
Remember, Morrow has never, NEVER pitched as a member of a 5-man rotation. In college you get guys pitching on 7, 8 or even 9 days of rest. They also have a dramatically shorter season. If you want Morrow to start, you have to understand his career high in innings in a season is 96 2/3. And in college, for a guy like Morrow, the 7-8-9 hitters are basically automatic outs, he's getting innings in there which are much less intensive on his arm.
NOTE: Yeah, I'm kind of snarky, but that's just the way I am, I suppose.