2013 Mariners Commercials

The Mariners unveiled their 2013 commercials today, complete with a new slogan for the year - "True to the blue." The slogan is neither bad nor good in my book, but the commercials are worthy additions to the anthology of M's ads. In fact, do you want to know how big of a deal today's release was? The Catholic church elected a new pope in their wake. 'Nuff said.

Below are the new Mariners commercials, ranked in reverse order of how much I like them. See if you agree or disagree with me (although, quite frankly, there is no way to argue that my top two are the top two this year. They are head and shoulders above all the others.)

6. The Lineup

The most interesting thing to me about this commercial is that it probably goes down as the raciest ad to date in Mariners history. I wouldn't go as far as calling it inappropriate, but by Mariners standards it is past what I am used to seeing out of their image and brand.

5. One Wish

I feel as if this ad tries to punch a little fun at all the losses the past few years. I'm not sure why they cut the final wish off mid-sentence (avoid a jinx?) The ended with Raul is quite nice though. I feel like this ad could age disgracefully if the M's flounder, thanks to the ending.

4. Fan Mail

The creators/directors missed an opportunity in this commercial. Eric Wedge is a stealthy supporting actor. It's his responses to King Felix that made Larry Bernandez an all-time classic. His banter with Felix and "little Larry" last year also made that commercial work. Why didn't this ad have Wedge stop Ackley in the clubhouse hallway, and give him a chance to deliver his deadpan "you've got to be kidding me" line for the year? In fact, why couldn't Ackley and Wedge have some sort of contest where they see who can be more emotionless with their delivery of lines?

3. Focused & Relaxed

The silk pajamas are pretty awesome, although I think I would have cast someone different in Seager's role. The only problem is that just about anyone else in Seager's role would seem like the butt of the joke with all the terrible hitting we've seen in the past - oh, I guess decade or so at this point :( Now that I think of it, I feel like Morse's personality would have filled out the silk PJs better, and Seager could have worn the zen t-shirt.

2. Hottest Thing in Town

King Felix delivers another strong effort. Kudos to the M's for not running Larry Bernandez into the ground, and going in a different direction this year. My favorite part of the whole commercial is how shot after shot shows the San Diego Padres suffering. The Mariners and Padres will be better interleague rivals yet! My only qualm with this ad is that there is no Felixing. I am surprised and a bit disappointed that Felixing is nowhere to be found in any of the commercials this year.

1. The Wise Ol' Buffalo

I saw some photos of the buffalo hit Twitter as the Mariners filmed commercials, so I had high hopes for whichever commercial featured it. This one did not disappoint. The ad is random, clever, and somehow fits the personalities of Wilhelmsen and Ryan (at least how I imagine them as a fan with a Mariners blog).

Overall, I like this group of commercials. It seems like a few get played much more than the rest every year, and I know which ones I hope I see the most.

Dramatic Transaction Reenactments - Episode 3: The Prodigal Trio

Perhaps you have never seen the first two episodes of Dramatic Transaction Reenactments, because the last episode was created over two years ago. They are back though, with a touching recounting of the three-way trade that brought Mike Morse back to the Mariners. It's quite a bit shorter than previous DTRs, and maybe some day I will come up with a more powerful ending, but for now enjoy 1 minute and 40 seconds of how I dramatically interpret the Morse trade going down:

Mike Morse Trade by Tim Chalberg on GoAnimate

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Why, Of All People, I Should Be Pumped for Mike Morse

The Mariners traded for Mike Morse in exchange for John Jaso. Here are full details of the three-way trade, but from the M's end, it was Morse for Jaso.

I really should be excited about this deal. Allow me to explain.

Langerhans Acquired

The Mariners just made a minor league move with major league implications. They traded infielder Mike Morse to the Nationals for outfielder Ryan Langerhans. Niether is on their respective team's 40-man roster, hence why it is considered a minor league deal. Both have been in AAA all year. Morse's line for the season is .312/.370/.481, while Langerhans has posted a .278/.371/.488 line. As hitters, they do not appear terribly different on the surface. Morse is a couple years younger and has shown more power than Langerhans, until this year. Langherans had 3 home runs all of last year, but has already hit 9 this year.

The real difference is defense. Morse can play a bunch of positions, but none of them all that well. Langerhans is a real good defensive outfielder, and as an added bonus can play a little first base. He should be up with the Mariners shortly, because he is the ideal replacement for Endy Chavez. Langerhans is even a bit younger than Endy, and I think will prove to be a better hitter too. The M's will have to do something to get Langerhans on the roster, but the easy answer would be to place Adrian Beltre on the 60-day DL.

Indeed, the Mariners offense has been difficult to watch this year, but this team is still on pace for a 15-20 win improvement over last year. Why? The defense. The pitching is better too, but thanks in large part to the defense. That is what makes losing Beltre so bad, and what made losing Endy Chavez so bad too. Langerhans fits in with the Mariners approach this year, and even if he does not hit terribly well, leaves the Mariners with only the one big hole at third base (well, aside from shortstop, but that has been a problem all year). Langerhans is not the kind of player that will transform the Mariners, but he is exactly what this team needed.

Opening Day Roster Set

During the broadcast of the M's/Cubs game today, the 2008 opening day roster for the Mariners was announced. Here they are:

STARTING LINEUP

• C - Kenji Johjima
• 1B - Richie Sexson
• 2B - Jose Lopez
• SS - Yuniesky Betancourt
• 3B - Adrian Beltre
• LF - Raul Ibanez
• CF - Ichiro
• RF - Brad Wilkerson

Analysis: There is not much to say here. The lineup was for all intents and purposes set before spring training began. There was little competition here, and no surprises either.

STARTING ROTATION

1. Erik Bedard
2. Felix Hernandez
3. Carlos Silva
4. Jarrod Washburn
5. Miguel Batista

Analysis: Much like the starting lineup, the rotation was set before spring training started. John McLaren even announced the order before spring training games began, so there was absolutely no competition all spring. To say there are no surprises here is an understatement.

BULLPEN

• Cha Seung Baek
• Ryan Rowland-Smith
• Sean Green
• Eric O'Flaherty
• Mark Lowe
• J.J. Putz

Analysis: This is the first place where there were a few surprises. McLaren was not sure whether he would go with a six or seven man bullpen the entire spring, and all along I thought the odds were the M's would go with seven, though any six-man scenario would include R.A. Dickey. In the end, McLaren surprised me twice, both with the bullpen and taking Baek over Dickey. Instead, the team "traded" C Jair Fernandez to the Twins for Dickey, allowing the team to keep him in AAA and not lose him. Listening to Bavasi on the telecast today, it was clear that Baek's lack of remaining minor league options was a major factor in the decision, and I am fine with that. Baek and Dickey are different pitchers, but one is not much better than the other. Preserving depth is certainly worth something, and because of that I am happy to see Baek in the bullpen.

The other interesting bullpen story is Mark Lowe. He has looked fairly sharp in spring training, and that coupled with Morrow's arm injury and overall lack of control opened up a spot for him. However, it is clear that the M's are planning on bringing Morrow back up once he is ready to go, so Lowe may have to hit the ground running to stay around.

Another player worth watching is Arthur Rhodes. He did not make the team, but he has looked good in the spring and he will continue to rehab from arm surgery. If he looks good in the minors, McLaren is going to have a hard time keeping him off the team. If either O'Flaherty or Rowland-Smith falter, he could be up soon.

BENCH

• Willie Bloomquist
• Miguel Cairo
• Mike Morse
• Charlton Jimerson
• Jamie Burke

Analysis: I am quite pleased with this bench. Keeping one less man in the bullpen allowed for one more bench player, which opened up the space needed for Mike Morse. However, after listening to the telecast today, it sounds like the last man on was actually Jimerson or Cairo. McLaren has been so impressed with Morse's spring that he now thinks he will platoon with Brad Wilkerson. Though looking at the numbers it would make more sense to have Morse platoon with Ibanez, I like that McLaren is rewarding such a great spring training peformance.

As for the rest of the bench, there is lots of versatility and speed. Both Bloomquist and Cairo can play virtually everywhere and grab a bag when needed, but Jimerson will likely be the primary pinch-runner. It is obvious that McLaren really wants to run this year, because he kept these three players and did not keep either Greg Norton or Jeremy Reed, both left-handed hitters but not as big of threats to steal. Personally, I probably would have kept Greg Norton and not Miguel Cairo (well, if I really was running the team I never would have signed Cairo to a major league contract), but I credit McLaren for a thinking a little outside of the box and starting the season with no left-handed hitters on the bench.

All in all, the final opening day roster excites me. The Mariners rewarded the good spring performances that Baek and Morse turned in, which I really like. They also went with less proven players, like Charlton Jimerson and Ryan Rowland-Smith, over more experienced guys, like Greg Norton and Arthur Rhodes. John McLaren has a clear vision of what he wants the 2008 Mariners to look like, and he built the roster by picking the 25 guys that fit his vision best. He did not just favor experience, or just talent. This team has a good mix of both, and also has a little depth in the minors too at all positions. This is the best roster the M's have put together under Bill Bavasi.

Spring Training Games Underway

I do not think a player can be properly evaluated in two games, and I also believe spring training statistics tend to be given too much consideration in decision-making. However, a player that performs remarkably well cannot help but grab the eye of a coaching staff, and it does make cutting them a little more difficult. Just two games into the spring training "season," the Mariners already have a couple of interesting players standing out:

• Mike Morse, INF/OF, (69/75) - Signing Miguel Cairo (70/68) practically spelled the end of Morse's career in Seattle (which I am not thrilled about). However, Mike is off to a rapid start in the Cactus League, and if he keeps it up, he may just stick around. The odds are still stacked against him, but I think the M's will have a hard time cutting him loose on waivers for nothing if he has a killer spring.
• Wladimir Balentien, OF, (70/81) - John McLaren has already anointed Brad Wilkerson (69/68) the starter in right field, and though he is off to a nice start, Balentien must have turned some heads with his multi-homer game. I was hoping for at least an open competition between Balentien and Wilkerson for the job, and so maybe it will become a competition if Wlad impales the ball for the better part of March.

Realistically, individual performances do not matter much in spring training, and considering that McLaren has already named virtually the entire opening day roster, he seems to not put much in spring training performances either. However, McLaren has laid out a number of goals for the team this year, and those changes should show up in spring training numbers:

• For pitchers, their has been a tremendous emphasis on pitching inside. So far, M's pitchers have hit three batters this spring, and I would expect to see many more hit batters if the coaching staff continues to drive it home to every member of the staff. I am sure nobody on the coaching staff is telling M's pitchers to hit batters, but I doubt they frowned when to Padres were plunked on Sunday.
• On the basepaths, McLaren wants to be much more aggressive, and has gone as far as saying he thinks that Ichiro can steal 80 bases, and Yuniesky Betancourt 40. I am not sure which prediction is more ridiculous, but on Saturday the M's stole four bases as a team, and on Friday Brian LaHair inexplicable tried to steal second and was thrown out by a mile. If the Mariners do not run wild in spring training, they certainly will not in the regular season, so this bears watching.
• Jeff Pentland has stated that he is working with M's hitters on being more selective at the plate in hopes of working pitchers more, and getting a few better pitches to hit. In theory, this should lead to more walks and higher pitch counts. In the first couple games the hitters have been drawing some walks, though that could be a product of wild pitchers as much as disciplined pitch selection at this point. Once again, if hitters are not going to take pitches when statistics do not matter, the odds of them taking more pitches when games count is extremely slim.

It is really hard to find any sort of intrigue this spring training because McLaren has made so many decisions already. I do not think that is necessarily a bad thing, especially looking at this year's team, but it does take some of the wind out of Spring Training's sails. There still are a few things to look at, but ultimately it is just nice to hear the sweet sounds of baseball again.

Bedard Rumors Continue to Swirl

Rumors concerning the Mariners acquiring SP Erik Bedard (96/94) from the Orioles refuse to die. The latest I have seen is that the M's are willing to part ways with OF Adam Jones (73/85) and RP George Sherrill (86/83), but the Orioles want in addition to those two either SP Brandon Morrow (75/81) or SS Carlos Triunfel (43/85). Currently, it appears the Mariners would prefer to include Triunfel between the two.

Jones, Sherrill, and Triunfel is an awfully high price to pay for any player. Erik Bedard was incredible last year (the only pitcher better than him last year according to my formula was Jake Peavy), but what he is actually worth needs to be examined further. Looking at his numbers, he exploded last year, and I doubt he will ever have a better year despite the fact he is only 28 years old. In fact, I really do not think he will reach the 94 rating my rating system projects for him next year. That is not to say Bedard will not be a great pitcher in the future, but to expect him to duplicate his 2007 output for the next several seasons is intrepid, to put it nicely. Taking Bedard's last three seasons and plugging them into my rating formula (with a slight injury adjustment), his rating drops to 86, with an expected decay to 85. That means Bedard is still a great pitcher, but the difference between a 96 rating and an 86 is significant.

After taking a closer look at Bedard, I think offering Jones and Sherrill for him is a fair deal. Baltimore needs a center fielder, and Jones fits that need perfectly, especially because he could become the black superstar that connects with the Baltimore community, which the Orioles covet badly. Though the Orioles would not receive a starter to replace Bedard in the trade, they added depth in the off-season by acquiring SP Troy Patton (61/78) and Matt Albers (59/63) in the Tejada trade, both of whom the team considers rotation candidates (I'm not as sold on them, but all that matters is if Baltimore believes in them). If they really wanted a starter, I would be willing to offer either Carlos Silva (75/74), Miguel Batista (76/72), or Jarrod Washburn (74/72), and get any one of those contracts off the books while making room in the rotation for Morrow. I doubt the Orioles would be interested in one of those three though.

As for the Mariners, Bedard would team with Felix Hernandez (83/90) and the mediocre, but effective, trio of Batista, Silva , and Washburn to turn the starting rotation into a decent, if not borderline formidable, group. Furthermore, though Sherrill would be missed in the bullpen, the M's have still have two very good bullpen lefties in Eric O'Flaherty (78/83) and Ryan Rowland-Smith (73/77), and Morrow would be pitching in the later innings as well. Adam Jones would also be missed, but Wladimir Balentien (70/80) is not a bad option, and there have been rumors the Mariners would sign Luis Gonzalez (79/74) if they were to trade Jones. So, it is not as if there would be a giant void in the outfield if Jones were to be traded, making it reasonable to say the upgrade Bedard brings to the starting rotation more than counteracts the loss of Jones in the outfield.

Still, it looks like the Orioles are not interested in only acquiring Jones and Sherrill for Bedard, and I would not be willing to offer much more for that. I would be willing to include INF Mike Morse (69/75) because there is no longer room for him on the 25-man roster thanks to INF Miguel Cairo (70/68), and Baltimore would be smart to take a look at Morse because he could fill their hole at shortstop, but I doubt that would be enough either. Bedard would be a great addition to the Mariners, but Baltimore's asking price is just a little too steep.

Miguel Cairo Signed By Mariners

Tonight the Mariners announced that they signed INF Miguel Cairo (70) to a one-year contract. He is expected to team with INF Willie Bloomquist (68) to form a super-sub duo from the bench that should, in the words of Bill Bavasi, "allow Mac more flexibility to use Miguel or Willie earlier in a game, if he wants, and still be covered late."

Essentially, Bloomquist and Cairo are the same player, which is not necessarily a bad thing. Both are not exactly feared hitters, but possess good speed and the ability to defend multiple positions. They are both the kind of guys a team wants on their bench. Indeed, the flexibility John McLaren has with these two guys is a nice luxury to have.

With all that said, this deal is a mistake. Assuming the Mariners starting 9 is set (which it is), and that they carry a 12-man pitching staff (which appears highly likely), they will only be able to carry 4 bench players. Bloomquist, Cairo, and Jamie Burke (69) will be three of them, leaving only one more spot. Since all of them are right-handed, it seems likely that the last bench member will be left-handed, which points towards C Jeff Clement (70/85) as the front-runner. That is a nice bench, and I do not have any problems with any of those players. The problem is that none of them are INF Mike Morse (69/81).

First of all, Morse would be a good bench player. He is a decent hitter, certainly good enough for pinch-hitting duties. He also can defend a number of positions. Of particular importance though, Morse is out of minor league options, so he must make the 25-man roster or be placed on waivers. Clement could be sent down, but I do not see McLaren carrying an all right-handed hitting bench. So, it looks like the Mariners are prepared to let Morse go for absolutely nothing, because I would be surprised if he cleared waivers.

Miguel Cairo is a good bench player, and many teams would have been wise to pick him up. However, the Mariners are not one of those teams. They already had a good bench duo in Bloomquist and Morse, and anyone who does not think that Morse has more upside than Cairo at this point in their careers is a fool. Morse is not an elite prospect, but he is good enough to be a quality sub right now, and he has the chance to develop into a solid everyday player. Maybe Morse is now free to be offered in a trade for someone else, like SP Erik Bedard (96), but I doubt that is what the M's have in mind.

Players as good as Mike Morse are not an endangered species, but they also are not a dime a dozen. A player of his caliber should not be thrown away, especially in favor of an aging reserve infielder.

Quick Look at September Call-Ups

With September comes expanded rosters, and the Mariners plan to take advantage of it. Yesterday, they announced that they planned to call up a total of 10 players. Five of them are part of the ballclub now, and four more will join it when the AAA season ends on Tuesday (John Parrish was supposed to be called up today but wasn't, so it is unclear what the Mariners are planning to do with him now). Here is a quick look at the players the Mariners are adding, and the impact of the moves:

CALLED UP TODAY

• UT Mike Morse (69) - Morse had a knee injury that kept him out for a couple months, but he when healthy he was productive. For as big of a man as he is, he still hasn't flashed much power, though he has shown the ability to hit for average both in AAA and the major leagues. Ultimately, Morse's greatest value to the team is his defensive versatility, and he'll likely see a few at-bats as a right-handed pinch-hitter.
• OF Charlton Jimerson (56) - With 25 home runs and 35 steals in the minors this year, Jimerson possesses a nice power/speed combo. However, his power is wiped out by an obscene number of strikeouts - 139 in 387 at-bats to be exact. He'll be the designated pinch-runner, a role that he should thrive in.
• C Rob Johnson (62/73) - The Mariners have long been high on Johnson, and though he likely won't play much he should make his major league debut sometime in the next month. Johnson's strength is his defense, and his hitting has developed some. Still, he will be the third-string catcher, so he will see little playing time.
• LHP Ryan Feierabend (59/67) - Since struggling mightily in the majors, Ryan has settled down and ended up having a solid year in Tacoma. Still, he's not ready for a pivotal role on this team. He should take over mop-up duty in any potential blow-outs down the stretch, freeing up Ryan Rowland-Smith for more important innings.
• RHP Sean White (68) - The Rule Five draft pick is back, and he is the biggest addition of the guys called up today. White will join Feierabend as a mop-up man, though he is a better pitcher than Ryan right now. The two of them should ease concerns of burning out the bullpen.

GETTING CALLED UP TUESDAY

• OF Jeremy Reed (68) - To a certain extent Reed has re-discovered the stroke that once made him a top prospect. He should be a good left-handed pinch-hitting option off the bench. McLaren may also use him as a defensive replacement as well, but that would be a mistake if he picks Reed over Adam Jones in any situation.
• OF Wladimir Balentien (71/83) - It will be interesting to see what the Mariners do with Balentien once he is called up. Wladimir is yet to make his major league debut, but he is the best player the M's are calling up. Balentien's greatest strength is a powerful bat, though he also has underrated speed. He has started to tap into his power potential thanks to remarkably improved plate discipline the last couple years. The odds are Wladimir will get very little playing time, though he should share pinch-hitting duties with fellow call-ups Mike Morse and Jeremy Reed.
• INF Nick Green (69) - Green has been tearing the cover off the ball ever since joining the Rainiers. Nothing about the rest of his career says he can maintain the type of hitting he has shown, but maybe this is just his year. Green can play around the infield, though his best position is second base, which has value on this team given Jose Lopez's struggles.
• C Jeff Clement (71/83) - Clement might be even more interesting to watch than Balentien in September. The former first-round pick is yet to make his major league debut, but after a slow start he really heated up. Thanks to his patience and power, he should see some pinch-hitting opportunities. Clement bats left-handed, but he absolutely crushed left-handed pitching. Hopefully McLaren realizes that he is much better against southpaws.
• LHP John Parrish (64) - When the Mariners traded for Parrish he had a 70 rating, but his rating has since dropped significantly despite very few innings pitched. He was supposed to be called up today, so I'm simply guessing that he will eventually be called up. Parrish should not be anything other than another mop-up man, but he is a better pitcher than he has shown in Seattle.

To make room on the 40-man roster for a number of these players, the following players had to be removed from it. They all are still part of the Mariners organization, but there is now a chance they could lose all of them (to put a complicated process way too simply):

• OF Mike Wilson (44/63) - Wilson got off to a horrible start, and though he had a much better second half, it still wasn't that impressive. He has great power, but struggles to make contact.
• INF Oswaldo Navarro (57/67) - Oswaldo looks like a light-hitting, decent-fielding shortstop at best. I don't know how he ever got on the 40-man roster to begin with.
• C Rene Rivera (41/59) - All I'll say is that I'm very glad the Mariners have Jamie Burke, because another year of watching Rene Rivera flail at the baseball like he's blindfolded was going to be painful. Rivera has inexplicably regressed as a hitter the last couple years to the point that he is not a viable option in the majors. How he stayed on the 40-man this long nobody will ever know.
• LHP Jake Woods (50) - After a pleasantly surprising season out of the bullpen last year, Woods has had a not-so-pleasantly surprising disaster of a season in Tacoma. Woods probably is not as good as he pitched in 2006, but also not as bad as he was this season. Still, given all the lefties the Mariners have on the roster, this was a logical move.

The Mariners September call-ups could actually be major difference-makers down the stretch. For the most part they won't be pitching or hitting in crucial situations, but they will allow McLaren to rest important contributors in non-crucial situations. It will allow important players to have days off that they otherwise would not get, especially in the bullpen. That will be especially valuable given how few days off the Mariners have the rest of the way.

Prospects Looking At Promotions

Though the unofficial halfway mark for the MLB, the All-Star Break, is still a month away, minor league teams are about halfway through their seasons now. Since the low level leagues divide the season into two halves, conveniently around the draft, it's fairly typical to see players who have done quite well so far this year to get promoted throughout the system. So, here's a look at some Mariners prospects that are most likely to get promoted:

WISCONSIN (A)
Andrew Barb, RP - Barb, acquired in the Jamie Moyer trade, has served as the closer for the TimberRattlers and he's been sensational, with a sub-1.00 WHIP and striking out well over a batter an inning. Like Kantakevich, he has nothing more to prove at this level.

Joseph Kantakevich, RP - Another product of last year's draft class, Kantakevich has done everything that can be asked of a reliever, even pitching multiple innings at times. He's got nothing left to prove at this level.

Kyle Parker, SP - Parker, a UW product, was drafted last year and so far has stood out, thanks to a dazzling whip hovering around 1.00. Nothing else is especially great about his numbers, but especially given how weak the High Desert staff has been, he's done enough to deserve a promotion to see what he can do. The lower minor league levels are going to have to be cleared out some anyway to make room for all the pitchers drafted this year.

HIGH DESERT (A-Advanced)
Casey Craig, OF - Craig has served primarily as High Desert's leadoff hitter, and he's done a marvelous job. He has shown good speed, a little power, but most impressively great plate discipline and the ability to hit for average. Craig has been on a tear the last couple weeks and has raised his batting average to almost .350 on the season. Though he's playing in a very hitter-friendly park, plate discipline and speed are not impacted by friendly confines.

Michael Saunders, OF - Saunders is on pace for a 20-homer, 40-steals year, all while hitting .300 with an OBP around .400. As with Craig, his stats are buoyed by the hitter's paradise he plays his home games in, but at the same time nobody else on the ballclub has flashed power and speed like Saunders.

Adam Moore, C - I wasn't happy when the M's drafted yet another catcher last year, but that guy turned out to be this guy, Adam Moore. All Moore has done is flash 30-homer potential with good hitting and plate discipline. He looks like a good, old-fashioned slugger. However, his power numbers could be largely a product of the ballpark he plays in. Still, I'd gladly demote current Diamond Jaxx backstop Rene Rivera to High Desert to see if Moore could bat better than .200 with just a hint of power in AA.

WEST TENNESSEE (AA)
Travis Chick, SP - Chick got hammered in a brief stint in Tacoma, but he's flat-out dominated AA in a couple outings. He's not getting challenged right now, so it's time to move him to Tacoma.

Brent Johnson, OF - Johnson has quietly hit well at all levels, and he's continued that trend at West Tennessee. He hasn't shown much power, but he can definitely hit. He's right on the bubble, but I would push him to Tacoma to make more room for Saunders and Craig. Still, there's a playing time issue in Tacoma too, thanks to Jeremy Reed, Adam Jones, and Wladimir Balentien.

TACOMA (AAA)
Adam Jones, OF - The improvement Adam Jones has made in the last two and a half years is astounding, and he continues to get better seemingly every day. His strikeout rate is still worrisome, but he's batting .330 with a ton of extra base hits. On top of that, he's developing into an excellent defensive player. If the M's could find a decent deal for Jose Guillen, I would trade him, move Ichiro back to right field, and hand center over to Adam Jones. Jones has as much power as Guillen, and his defense is much better at this point.

Mike Morse, IF - It could be argued that Morse isn't a prospect anymore, but what can't be argued is that Morse is hitting very well for the Rainiers right now, and his versatility makes him even more enticing as a bench player for the M's right now. If I were in charge, I would bring up Morse and send down Bloomquist, because little versatility is lost and a legitimate right-handed pinch-hitter is gained. Jason Ellison could become the main pinch-runner, and maybe even get to play a little more in the outfield too.

Wladimir Balentien, OF - Balentien seems to have put power and discipline together this year for the very first time. Two years ago, he had lots of power with few walks, and last year lots of walks but diminished power. Maybe Wladimir is a one-year wonder, but there's plenty of reason to believe this is simply him developing. What's also overlooked is his versatility (he can play all three outfield positions), and his speed (he's on pace for over 20 steals this year). Much has been made about his strikeouts, but he's actually struck out less than the more-touted Adam Jones. It could even be argued that Balentien is more major-league ready than Jones at this point. I'd consider moving Raul to first base full time, benching Sexson, and seeing what Balentien can do. However, more realistically, Balentien will compete for a spot with the Mariners next year.

Jorge Campillo, SP - Though it was Ryan Feierabend that got called up for a few spot starts this year, it's Campillo that has been the best pitcher on the Rainiers staff all year long. He's no ace, but he doesn't give up many home runs, and he could be a reliable starter at the back end of the rotation right now. The only problem is that Campillo is not on the 40-man roster, which prohibits him from being called up without someone already on the 40-man getting released. However, if the M's don't protect Jorge somehow, I think someone will be smart enough to purchase his contract and give him a chance.

M's Roster Taking Shape

Today the Mariners announced that they had re-assigned one player to minor league camp (RHP Aaron Small), and sent four others to AAA Tacoma (RHP Sean Green, LHP Eric O'Flaherty, C Rene Rivera, OF Jeremy Reed). Though the Mariners had made several cuts before today's round, no one was cut before today that was thought to have a shot at making the ballclub. Especially with the four optioned to AAA out of the picture, the opening day roster has begun to take shape. As of now, the Mariners have 33 players in camp and must be down to 25 in a matter of days. Here is who is still left (* = a player not on the 40-man roster):


POSITION PLAYERS
Kenji Johjima (C)
Jamie Burke (C)*
Richie Sexson (1B)
Ben Broussard (1B/LF/RF)
Jose Lopez (2B)
Jose Vidro (2B/DH)
Yuniesky Betancourt (SS)
Gookie Dawkins (SS/3B)*
Rey Ordonez (SS)*
Adrian Beltre (3B)
Raul Ibanez (LF)
Ichiro (CF)
Adam Jones (CF)
Jose Guillen (RF)
Willie Bloomquist (IF/OF)
Mike Morse (IF/OF)


PITCHING STAFF
Felix Hernandez (RHP)
Jarrod Washburn (LHP)
Miguel Batista (RHP)
Horacio Ramirez (LHP)
Jeff Weaver (RHP)
Cesar Jimenez (LHP)
Arthur Rhodes (LHP)*
George Sherrill (LHP)
Jake Woods (LHP)
Jon Huber (RHP)
Justin Lehr (RHP)*
Mark Lowe (RHP)
Julio Mateo (RHP)
Brandon Morrow (RHP)*
J.J. Putz (RHP)
Chris Reitsma (RHP)
Sean White (RHP)


With Rene Rivera being sent down today the Mariners have only two catchers remaining in camp, which means Kenji Johjima (of course) and more surprisingly Jamie Burke will be on the ballclub by process of elimination. Sexson, Lopez, Betancourt, Beltre, Vidro, Ibanez, Ichiro, and Guillen are all locked in as starters on the club, and Willie Bloomquist was a shoo-in as a reserve at the start of the spring, but he has removed any doubt with his performance as well. So, that is a total of 11 position players with spot on the squad, and since it looks like the M's are going to carry 12 pitchers, 2 vacant reserve positions remain. Since the Mariners would probably like one of these guys to bat left-handed, Ben Broussard has likely made the ballclub because he is the only left-handed hitter among those that are not already on the ballclub. Between him and Willie Bloomquist, the Mariners have all the defensive positions covered, so they have the luxury of selecting the best player out of the pool remaining. If I were them, I would go with Mike Morse because he has the best bat of everyone left, the most versatility of anyone left, and he also is already on the 40-man roster.


Now on to the pitching staff. Hernandez, Washburn, Batista, Ramirez, and Weaver are the starting five for sure. However, the bullpen is very much up for grabs. Jake Woods figures to return to the long-relief role he filled so well last year, Chris Reitsma will be the set-up man, and Dudley-favorite Julio Mateo is sure to pitch in some crucial inning when better options are available (though I should say Mateo has looked good this spring, and I anticipate a good year from him). J.J. Putz would be a lock to make the team as well, but the Mariners may opt to put him on the DL to start the year if he is hurt bad enough. I think they won't though, so I will lightly pencil him in on the opening day roster. So, 9 of the 12 pitching spots are taken, leaving 3 to be decided between 8 hurlers. Mark Lowe can be eliminated because he is still hurt, so really there are only seven competing. Arthur Rhodes and George Sherrill should be on the club, because Hargrove really wants three lefties, especially since one (Woods) fills the long-relief role. That leaves only one position up for grabs among Jon Huber, Justin Lehr, Brandon Morrow, and Sean White. Of this quartet, Lehr has probably been the most unimpressive (though Huber is right there with him), and he is also a non-roster invitee. So, his chances of making the Mariners are slim to none.


That leaves Huber, Morrow, and White. Huber was impressive in his September call-up last year, but he has been roughed up a couple times this spring. Brandon Morrow has been dominant, and he's got the best stuff of this trio. However, he has virtually no professional experience and he's also not on the 40-man roster. As for Sean White, he has also looked good this spring and if the Mariners don't keep him they will have to return him to the Braves, since he was a Rule 5 draft pick. The last bullpen spot is easily the toughest decision the Mariners have to make, but if I were making the call I would go with Sean White, because he and Huber are relative equal in my eyes but Huber can be sent down; and also because I would prefer to see Brandon Morrow develop as a starter in the minors (plus adding Morrow would kick another guy off the 40-man roster).


So, here is who I think the 2007 Mariners will be:


STARTING LINEUP
Kenji Johjima, C
Richie Sexson, 1B
Jose Lopez, 2B
Yuniesky Betancourt, SS
Adrian Beltre, 3B
Raul Ibanez, LF
Ichiro, CF
Jose Guillen, RF
Jose Vidro, DH


BENCH
Willie Bloomquist
Ben Broussard
Mike Morse
Jamie Burke


STARTING ROTATION
Felix Hernandez
Jarrod Washburn
Miguel Batista
Horacio Ramirez
Jeff Weaver


BULLPEN
Jake Woods, Long Relief
Sean White, Long Relief
Julio Mateo, Middle Relief
George Sherrill, Specialty Lefty
Arthur Rhodes, Left-Handed Set-Up
Chris Reitsma, Right-Handed/Primary Set-Up
J.J. Putz, Closer


In this scenario, two non-roster invitees make the squad, so two players must be removed from the 4o-man roster. To open up one spot I would put Mark Lowe on the 60-day DL, and for the last one I would designate Sean Green for assignment. If J.J. Putz starts the year on the DL, I would call up Jon Huber, but my feeling is that the Mariners will choose Morrow instead. If Morrow is added to the roster, my guess is Travis Blackley is designated for assignment. I've often criticize Bavasi and Dudley for how they have handled the roster, but so far I like what I see. I'm scared they are going to kill Morrow's future (though I think he would be a solid reliever), but I'm even more scared they are going to keep either Rey Ordonez or Gookie Dawkins around. The M's are due for a brain freeze at some point this spring.

There Goes the Streak

I recommended watching the Pistons and the Heat tonight, and I should have taken my own advice. Instead, I decided to watch the Mariners to see if they could win their fifth straight, something they never accomplished in 2005. Going into the game I was getting excited for the Mariners. With last night's win the pulled to .500 on the season at home and were only three games out of first place. Richie Sexson was showing signs of coming out of his season-long slump and the middle infield combo of Yuniesky Betancourt and Jose Lopez was continuing to be better than advertised. Even better, the Mariners looked like they had caught a break tonight as the scheduled starter for the Orioles, Hayden Penn, had to have an emergency appendectomy. In his place would be a hodgepodge of relievers, "highlighted" by John Halama.

The good times lasted for four batters. Then, Ramon Hernandez stepped up to the plate and tattooed a Pineiro offering out of the park to give the Orioles a three-run lead before the M's could even bat. The Orioles ended up sending all nine hitters to the plate in the first inning and also tacked on another run to make the score 4-0 as Ichiro entered the box for the first time. He got a hit to extend his hitting streak, and as it turns out, that was the highlight of the night.

It didn't look like that would be the highlight for most of the game though. The Mariners got to Halama in the third inning and pretty soon Sam Perlazzo seemed to be throwing any reliever he could find at the Mariners in hopes of preserving the lead. His tactics worked, as the Orioles led 5-3 going into the bottom of the 8th.

The eighth started off very promising with a lucky single off the bat of Carl Everett. Then, Adrian Beltre stepped up to the plate and actually put a charge into a ball for a change. He drove a LaTroy Hawkins offering deep to right center and Corey Patterson was not able to catch it, allowing Everett to score and Beltre to make it all the way to third. Suddenly, Seattle was down only a run, the closest they had been the entire game, and the tying run was on third base with no outs! It looked as if the comeback not only could happen, but would happen.

Ah, but these are the 2006 Mariners and they are managed by Mike Hargrove. First up was Kenji Johjima, who has been everything the Mariners could have asked for both at the plate and behind it. Unfortunately, he left plenty to be desired this at-bat as he popped up to first base. Due up next was Willie Bloomquist but Hargrove decided to pinch hit Roberto Petagine in his place. This would have been a great move - except that Petagine's last appearance was as a pinch-hitter an entire WEEK ago in Oakland. It is absolutely ludicrous that Hargrove is not using Petagine more, especially considering how badly Richie Sexson has struggled. Even worse, when Hargrove finally does use him, he puts him in an extremely pressure-packed situation. Petagine was set up for complete failure and that's exactly what happened as he popped up to third base. There were now two outs in the inning and Yuniesky Betancourt was due up. Once again, Hargrove went to the bench and this time sent up Jeremy Reed. Hargrove likely made the move to set up the classic lefty-righty mismatch that managers absolutely love, but I really did not like the move for two reasons. First of all, I am not convinced that Reed is a better hitter than Betancourt. Though it is true Reed has heated up recently, Betancourt is in the midst of the longest hitting streak in his young career and Betancourt's numbers over the season are better than Reed's. Also, Seattle had to put someone else at shortstop for Betancourt in the ninth since they pinch hit for him, which greatly weakens the infield defense. The move seemed destined to harm the team. Sure enough, once Reed was announced as the pinch-hitter, the Orioles brought in their closer Chris Ray and it took him only four pitches to strike out Reed and preserve Baltimore's lead.

It felt like the Mariners may have blown their chance at winning the game in the eighth, but in the end it may not have mattered as the bullpen completely melted down and allowed nine runs in the top half of the ninth, highlighted by Ramon Hernandez's grand slam. Somehow, the Mariners found a way to squander a close game and get blown out in it at the same time, making this loss exotically painful.

Aside from the atypical bullpen meltdown, this game was painful because it pointed out how poorly Mike Hargrove has used the bench this year. It started back in mid-April when Seattle designated Joe Borchard for assignment just to keep Matt Lawton, supposedly because he was so valuable to the bench. That move backfired miserably as Borchard was snatched up by the Marlins and Matt Lawton is no longer with the ballclub because Hargrove never used him. In Lawton's place is Mike Morse, or as Mike Hargrove called him, "the infielder we've been looking for all year." Looking for all year? He's been sitting in AAA all year, just waiting to be called up. Did you forget about him? Maybe you did because he was only batting .227 and striking almost exactly once out of every four at-bats against AAA pitching. Please Mike, is this really the infielder you've been looking for? How does this make Hunter Brown feel, who plays every infield position and has clearly outperformed Morse this year in Tacoma? Brown is nothing special, but he would make a great utility infielder because he can play all over the diamond and you won't feel too guilty about not getting his bat in the lineup on a regular basis. On the other hand, hitting is supposedly Morse's strength, so if he is not getting to the plate (which he won't) he's a wasted commodity, kind of like Roberto Petagine right now. I got spoiled watching Lou Pineilla use a bench to perfection, but I expect more out of Mike Hargrove, especially now that he's got the infielder he was looking for. I really should have watched that Heat/Pistons game.

HOME

Carl ?#@!ing Everett

Ever since Albert Belle retired, there is no baseball player I hate more than Carl Everett. What is there to like about a man who is surly off the field and has a terrible temper on it? Everett is the biggest jerk in baseball today. However, with Everett having been signed by the Mariners, I may just be forced to root for him. The marriage of love and hate in my baseball world has left me torn. Should I, and the multitude of fans who also despise Carl Everett, actually be fans of this cantankerous player?

The Mariners certainly think so. One of their off-season goals was to acquire a bat with some power, preferably left-handed, who could play the outfield. Carl Everett seems to be a perfect fit as he perennially hits over 20 home runs, can bat from either side of the plate, and has extensive experience playing the outfield. Furthermore, Mike Hargove welcomes the "intensity" that Carl Everett will bring to the team, as he believes that Everett will stir up what has been a moribund clubhouse for several years. According to the Mariners, Carl Everett is a perfect fit.

The Mariners are completely wrong, as much as it hurts for me to say it. Carl Everett not only is an imperfect fit, he does not fit in at all. To start with, the "intensity" that Mike Hargrove referred to is one of Everett's worst qualities, not his best as the Mariners want to lead people to believe. He gets way to intense and the resulting tirades alienate him from his teammates. Then, with the clubhouse falling apart thanks to his own actions, he gets angry and blames everyone for not unifying as a team. Everett's antics will certainly stir up the clubhouse, but they will stir it up way too much. Just ask the Astros, Red Sox, and Rangers, who all dumped Carl Everett because he was such a burden to deal with.

However, just for argument's sake, I will say that Carl Everett is the best thing ever to happen to the Mariners' clubhouse. What makes this signing truly horrid is that he does not improve the team as a baseball player. Mike Morse was a likely candidate to have the role that Carl Everett will now fill. So, let's compare Carl Everett's 2005 statistics with Mike Morse's:

	Carl Everett	Mike Morse
BA	.251	.278
OBP	.311	.349
SLG	.435	.370
OPS	.746	.719

Based on last year's numbers, Carl Everett is barely an upgrade over Mike Morse. However, Everett's production is bound to plummet this year for two reasons. First, he has been steadily declining for several years, which is not surprising considering he is 34 years old. More importantly though, Everett played his home games at U.S. Cellular Field last year, a home-run-hitting paradise. Needless to say, Safeco Field is far more pitcher friendly. As for Morse, his numbers were compiled in Safeco and he is just starting his career, so his numbers in theory should improve. In addition, the Mariners have two other prospects, Chris Snelling and Shin-Soo Choo, who have both been better hitters than Morse throughout their minor league careers. Both of them are also left-handed hitters and outfielders, the exact type of player the Mariners were looking for in the free agent market. In fact, Shin-Soo Choo has the chance to be a gold-glover because his defense is so impressive. Any of those three prospects may be better players than Carl Everett right now and they obviously have way more upside than him at this point too.

So, in conclusion, Carl Everett is a clubhouse cancer who is a worse, yet more expensive, player than three prospects the Mariners already have. Everett looks like the next Rich Aurilia, or worse, the next Scott Spiezio and if he is it may cost Bill Bavasi his job. Whoever pushed for Carl Everett to be signed should be fired because nothing good will come out of this move. It is terrible, simply terrible.