Zduriencik Still The Right Man

Since the Mariners are off today, I want to try to push something out to think about. I could count the podcast (and you should listen if you are interested in getting another take on this team's struggles), but we might as well make today a double feature.

It has become apparent that the 2010 Mariners aren't as good as the 2009 Mariners. Considering how much worse they are, and all the new faces, it is easy to presume that some moves made by Jack Zduriencik have backfired badly. In fact, it is logical to presume that.

So, what if Jack Z hadn't made any moves this offseason? Would this team be in better shape? Time for some bullet points...

• Kenji Johjima would still be catching - Is there much doubt that Kenji would be the best catcher on this team right now, or at least giving Josh Bard a run for his money? Hard to argue against that, offensively and defensively. However, is it fair to pin Kenji's sudden retirement on Zduriencik? I don't think so, and it did free up some money. It might be fair to criticize Z for not replacing him, but I still think Josh Bard was the right type of guy to target. The real problem to me is trotting out Rob Johnson so often because A) he isn't that good and B) it did Adam Moore's development no favors before he got hurt (though admittedly he looked totally lost at the plate). I think Don Wakamatsu shares some of that blame though.
• Russell Branyan would still be at first base - The team seemed concerned about Branyan's back, and their concerns were warranted. Guess what? He wouldn't have made much of a difference because he missed the first month of the year. Since coming off the DL, he has a .219/.301/.438 line, which is definitely better than what we've seen, but noticeably below his production from last year too.
• Bill Hall would still be on the bench, or maybe playing regularly somewhere - Who would you rather have, Bill Hall or Casey Kotchman? So far, Hall has accumulated a .188/.282/.333 line in Boston, though with only 79 plate appearances. However, his combined line last year was .201/.258/.338 with the Brewers and M's, and in 2008 he batted .225/.299/.396. I don't think his production will get much better with more time. Granted, Hall brings some defensive versatility, and a little more thunder in his stick, but it's hard to argue this offense or defense is in better shape with him over Kotchman.
• Adrian Beltre is still at third base - This is another obvious spot where things would be better if they had stayed the same. Beltre is having his best season so far since his massive NL campaign that netted the big contract from the M's. However, is it really Z's fault that Beltre moved on? He offered Beltre arbitration, and I wrote about how Beltre would have earned more by accepting it. There is nothing more Zduriencik could have done to keep him around, so I have a hard time pinning this one on him. It's hardly like Beltre was just shown the door.
• Carlos Silva is in the rotation - ...and we don't have Milton Bradley. Even with as surprisingly good that Silva has been so far, is this team better with him? With the hot starts by Doug Fister and Jason Vargas, I don't think so. Furthermore, is this offense worse with Milton Bradley? Again, I don't think so. Bradley is one of the better hitters in the lineup, even with his slow start. As much as the national media has some fun with this deal at the M's expense, I wouldn't ask for a mulligan.
• Miguel Batista is still around - ...and I'm guessing that means Kanekoa Texeira or Jesus Colome is out. Texeira has been inconsistent, but that beats consistently horrible. Batista versus Colome...yeah, I'll admit, that's a tougher call.
• Brandon Morrow is still around - ...and Brandon League is not. Certainly, League has been inconsistent, but is he really more inconsistent than Morrow? So far, in 9 starts with the Jays, Brandon has averaged exactly 5 innings a start, and sports a 6.80 ERA. He strikes out almost 12 batters per 9 innings, but almost walks 6 at the same rate. There are some numbers (particularly a high BABIP) that suggest he will get a little better, but you would hope so with those horrendous numbers. Would the current M's be better if they didn't make the deal? I'm going to say no. Besides, even with some anticipated regression, Morrow is still the maddeningly inconsistent Morrow we loved and hated the past couple seasons.
• No Cliff Lee - Zdurienciek didn't give anyone up on the 25-man roster for Lee, so he was simply added to the roster (for the sake of what this post is exploring). This team is better with him, and I don't think I have to build much of a case for that.
• No Chone Figgins - This is the fairest move to criticize. Figgins has clearly been a bust to this point, and the contract may lock the M's in to several more years of this. Especially with other, cheaper alternatives like Kelly Johnson and Orlando Hudson doing better, this does not look like the move that was best for the ballclub.

Where did Jack Zduriencik fail? For the most part, the moves he made still look neutral or like improvements, even with this team falling well short of expectations. The DH slot is the easiest to pick on, and I missed it with the way I looked at things in this post, but would a guy like Edgar Martinez in his prime solve all the offensive woes?

For all that Jack touched that turned to gold last year, the same kind of breaks haven't been there this year. I don't see any catastrophic moves made by Z as of yet though. Maybe one bad one (the Figgins signing), but when put in the context of all the great ones he made last year, and the promising talent quickly accumulating the farm system, I still see a process heading in the right direction.

2010 Mariners Preview

It has been a while since I've woken up and known the M's are going to play a game that matters. That is the beauty of opening day for me.

By now you have probably checked out enough previews and predictions, so I will try to take a bit different approach. Instead of giving some broad overview, or trying to give exact numbers, I will focus on key changes, and key players. With this team, that's more than enough to write about.

So, here are my reasons the 2010 Mariners won't be just like the 2009 bunch.

First of all, the changes:

1. Chone Figgins replaces Adrian Beltre - It is debatable which of these two players is actually better, but let's not forget how bad Beltre's 2009 campaign was. He missed significant time with injuries, and even when playing, they made him a shell of the hitter he can be. Figgins in 2010 will blow away Beltre's 2009 production, even if the defense isn't as good. This is one of the biggest reasons to expect the M's offense to be better this year.
2. Casey Kotchman replaces Russell Branyan - Kind of an opposite argument here to the Figgins/Beltre one. With Branyan's back problems, it is pretty clear who is the superior player right now. However, there is no getting around the gaping hole Branyan's 2009 production at the plate leaves. Kotchman won't fill it, but he should at least hit for average, and he brings a much, much better glove with him to first. Casey is a very different player than Branyan, but overall I think he is a better replacement then most are giving him credit for right now.
3. Jack Wilson replaces Yuniesky Betancourt/Ronny Cedeno/et al - Jack isn't a great hitter, but he's definitely better than Yuni or Ronny was in 2009. His defense is light years ahead of virtually every shortstop too (especially Yuni). It's easy to point at Jack and say he is a reason this team won't score enough runs, but don't forget who he is replacing from 2009. He is a big reason this team has a better starting nine this year - and even a reason it is reasonable to expect the M's to score some more runs.
4. Milton Bradley replaces Endy Chavez/Michael Saunders - I don't care how good Bradley's legs are, the defense takes a hit with him out there. However, he is the superior hitter. Yet another reason this team will score some more runs, though not as clear-cut if this is a significant upgrade, considering the defense, and Bradley's well-documented past.
5. The starting rotation has more upside - Chris Jakubauskas, Garrett Olson, and Carlos Silva combined to make 25 starts for the 2009 Mariners. That's not going to happen this year. Ian Snell is in line to eat up a lion's share of those starts. Certainly, Snell is a question mark, but I'll take him over the trio he replaces. Furthermore, Cliff Lee is in line to take Jarrod Washburn's starts, and while Wash was surprisingly fantastic, I'll take Lee too.
6. Kanekoa Teixeira and Shawn Kelley are taking over middle relief - Both of these pitchers have question marks around their ability to handle this role, but would you rather have them, or the Miguel Batista/Garret Olson/Chris Jakubauskas cross-your-fingers-for-a-few-innings mix the M's had in that role in 2009? I thought so.
7. Brandon League is in the bullpen too - Brandon Morrow, Roy Corcoran, and Randy Messenger combined for 44 relief appearances last year. A healthy Sean White and Shawn Kelley may take some of those appearances, but many of them will likely be handed to Brandon League. That's a good thing.

There are key holdovers to watch too. Here are some particular situations worth watching:

• Ichiro will be worse, but how much worse? Ichiro had one of his best years in 2009. Age and regression to the mean should catch up to him in 2010. He can't be banked on to put an equally insane year, though he should still be great. However, on a team offensively challenged, this is worth pointing out, and worrying some about.
• How good will David Aardsma be? I liked Aardsma as a breakout candidate last year, but never expected him to be as good as he was. He isn't likely to keep his home run rate as low as he did last year, and he has been beaten around pretty hard in spring training too. I wonder how long Wak will stick with Aardsma in the closer's role. I think Mark Lowe takes over as early as mid-May. I'm that worried about Aardsma.
• How good will the catchers be? I mean this in a positive way. The M's have suffered through a couple seasons where the backstops have more or less been a black hole on offense. That shouldn't be the case this year. Both Rob Johnson and Adam Moore have some offensive upside, and in this case, even being below average is a noticeable improvement. Johnson and Moore are more than capable of that. Plus, gone are the days of pitchers whining about Kenji's pitch selection.
• Will Ken Griffey Jr. be better than last year? Supposedly, Griffey's knee has been bad for a few years, but is better now. For what it's worth, Griffey's walk rate increased significantly the past few years, and his BABIP went way down. There is a correlation, but that doesn't mean causation, especially at Griffey's advanced age. If the knee has really been that big of a problem, perhaps Griffey can bounce back more than almost anyone (including myself) thinks he can.
• How good is Franklin Gutierrez? As big as Guti's 2009 campaign was, 2010 is in some ways even bigger. He established that he is a good player, but how good? It's easy to look at his breakout season, and assume he will regress down towards his career rates in 2010. That's okay if that happens, but I'm just going to throw this out there: Guti finally got a chance to play every day. He flashed some serious power at times in 2009. The M's want to see more of that, along with more patience. They've seen enough of both out of Guti in spring training to toy around with hitting him third. What if he sticks in the third spot, and hits around 25 home runs? That would put him close to 100 RBIs, if not over. Combine that with a decent batting average, improved on-base percentage, elite defense (and the newfound love for defense in the media), and a pennant run by the M's, and Franklin Gutierrez might get some MVP consideration.

The 2009 Mariners befuddled many experts, and just as people started to pick out what was skill from luck, the roster changed drastically. The 2010 team has tons of new faces, and more than its fair share of question marks. Combine questions with a poor spring training, and it is not surprising that the M's have gone from a novel pick to do great things, to an overrated posse with obvious holes.

For me, the questions remain unanswered. About the only thing I am sure of is that this team will score some more runs. How many more though? Will the pitching and defense stay just as good too?

I don't know how good this team is, but I think guys like Franklin Gutierrez, Casey Kotchman, Milton Bradley, Erik Bedard, Ian Snell, and David Aardsma will go a long ways toward determining this team's fate. I just listed a quarter of the roster, and that's the point. Turn anywhere on this team, and there is a looming question mark. No matter how much the roster is analyzed, those answers won't come until the season starts to unfold.

Hopefully the answers are more good than bad.

Beltre Signs With BoSox

Even though Boston wasn't able to trade Mike Lowell and his 95% torn thumb, they still went ahead and signed Adrian Beltre. According to Ken Rosenthal, the deal is $9 million for 1 year, with a $5 million player option for 2011 that bumps up to $10 million if Beltre makes 640 plate appearances (in other words, if he starts and is healthy the whole year).

There are also rumors that Beltre turned down a couple 3 year, $24 million offers. My guess would be that those were from the Orioles and Angels, but those are pure guesses. I would be surprised if the Orioles were not one of the teams though.

Since I wrote about Beltre's situation over and over and over, I feel obligated to write about it one more time now that he has finally signed.

First of all, this is a very Beltre-friendly deal, and I suppose nice for the Red Sox too with all the money they have locked up in other players. I would be shocked if Beltre takes the player option. He has only reached 640 plate appearances 3 times in his 12-year career, and Boston has great depth in the infield right now with Mike Lowell around (though you'd have to think he will be dealt at some point). The only way that option becomes $10 million is if Beltre has a big enough season to likely earn more in free agency next off-season. On top of that, he won't have a worse year than 2009, and that netted him $9 million, so it's hard to see him willingly accepting $5 million without testing free agency again.

The question remains: did Beltre make the right decision declining arbitration? Basically, he accepted $9 million from the Red Sox this year over $10-12 million (in all likelihood, with how arbitration works) from the Mariners.

I think it is now safe to say that Adrian left money on the table when he walked away from the M's arbitration offer, which is why I wrote so much about why I thought he would/should seriously consider accepting it. He also took less money to move much farther from his Los Angeles home. Also, though the Red Sox are probably a better team than the Mariners right now, they have to compete with the Yankees and Rays. The Mariners have weaker competition, and Beltre's bat would bolster the Mariners lineup more noticeably than Boston's.

Arguably, Beltre took a couple million less to move cross-country and join a team with roughly the same chance to win their division that the Mariners do.

To be fair to Adrian though, he had to make the arbitration decision before the M's acquired Cliff Lee. Also, Fenway Park is much better suited for Beltre's offensive approach than Safeco. He is going from one of the worst parks for a right-handed power hitter to one of the best. That is sure to boost his numbers, along with the natural bounce back that is reasonable to expect. In addition, Boston's lineup is loaded with great hitters, meaning Beltre is likely to pick up more runs and RBIs. He could close in on 100 in either or both categories, which like it or not, boosts his earning potential on the open market.

A 3 year, $24 million contract in a place like Baltimore would have been a clear loss for Adrian Beltre. A 1 year, $9 million contract in Boston is probably a wash. The difference in the park and lineup may enable Beltre to earn back the money he walked away from in the contract he gets next off-season.

A wash financially probably won't make the move from the west coast worth it for Beltre. Winning big would though. Beltre's decision has the potential to become an intriguing story, particularly if the Mariners contend in 2010.

Beltre Says No, Figgins Says Yes

Adrian Beltre declined his arbitration offer, rendering my ranting and raving about how much financial sense it makes for him moot. We will never know what he would have made in arbitration, or what he would make as a free agent in next year's market. So, nobody will ever be able to prove me wrong when I maintain he would have earned more if he had accepted arbitration.

In the end, this is ironically a breath of fresh air if you ask me. Adrian Beltre will still get paid plenty well for his services. He already has a boatload of money. It's rare for a player in his career to get two significant multi-year contracts in free agency. I honestly don't think Beltre's decision was about the money. It was about exploring his options, and picking his best chance to contribute to a team built to win now. He couldn't have done that if he had accepted arbitration.

Now, on to the newest Mariners, and Beltre's likely replacement at the hot corner, Chone Figgins. He officially signed yesterday for 4 years, $36 million, with an optional fifth year in the deal that vests basically if he's pretty awesome for the four years of the deal guaranteed. It's quite a bit of money for a slap-hitting, 30-something, diminutive professional pest.

The Figgins contract is money well spent though. I am a little concerned about how the deal will look a few years from now, but there is a good chance that Chone ages gracefully. His greatest assets are speed, plate discipline, a high contact rate, and good defense at third base, one of the more premium positions. Speed tends to stick around for a while (look at Ichiro), plate discipline tends to improve, while contact and defense tend to erode. However, improved plate discipline helps offset a diminishing contact rate, and Figgins could slide over to second or into the outfield as his defense diminishes.

What gets me excited about the Figgins deal is what it does for the M's offense. It has an identity now. Ichiro and Figgins should be at the top of the order (personally, I would keep Ichiro in the leadoff spot, and bat Figgins second). Chone's patient approach at the plate offsets the drawbacks of Ichiro's aggresive mindset, freeing Ichiro up even more to do what he does so well. However, that's the only major difference between the two at the dish. They both thrive on putting the ball and play, and letting their legs do the rest.

When a team faced the 2009 Mariners, they gave closer looks to Ichiro, Russell Branyan, and may a few other players who happened to be hot at the time. It was a handful of individuals. When a team faces the 2010 Mariners, they will always start with the top of the lineup now, and trying to deal with the pressure it can generate. It's more than a couple of players. It's an identity, a unique facet of the Mariners offense that will worry opponents. While Beltre has offensive value, his skillset does not mesh with Ichiro's to produce that kind of identity.

Plus, it's sweet taking such a big piece of the Angels' success away from them...although, the last time the M's signed a corner infielder away from LA of A (Scott Spiezio), it was a disaster. I liked that move a ton when it happened too, more than I like the Figgins deal right now, actually.

Figgins doesn't bring a bad back to Seattle though, or a stupid red tuft of hair below his chin. He brings skills that this team needs, and meshes beautifully with the talent already here. The price makes me hesitant, but not despondent. That's probably the sign of a fair deal. Welcome to your new home, Chone. I can't wait to see you slap that ridiculous rally monkey silly.

More On Beltre And Arbitration

It looks Chone Figgins is going to become a Mariner. I'll write about that when it's official, just to make certain. No rush on that. However, it is the latest indication that Adrian Beltre is gone.

Reading through the arbitration rules, it's hard to say what Beltre could net in arbitration. He breaks the system. Basically, teams can only compare players signed to 1-year deals with comparable MLB service time to the player in question.

Even though Beltre is 30 years old, he already has 12 years of service time. Players with around 12 years of service time that have signed one-year deals in recent history include Mark Loretta, Nomar Garciaparra, and Garret Anderson. In other words, veterans signing as stopgaps or bench players.

The group Adrian Beltre can be compared to in arbitration doesn't describe Beltre at all. Technically, the "comparable" players might allow the Mariners to offer something absurdly low, like $1.5 million.

However, if I were Beltre's agent (who by the way is Scott Boras), I'd take a different approach. I would highlight the unique nature of Adrian Beltre, and how any player with comparable service time is not all that comparable, given that Beltre made his MLB debut at 19 years old. I might also highlight that Mark Loretta, a player with 12 years of experience in 2008 when he went to arbitration, ended up with a raise. I might also point out that David Weathers, the only player with over 10 years of MLB experience to file an arbitration figure last year, was guaranteed a raise even if the team had won (the two sides ended up agreeing to a contract before the hearing).

Then, after presenting that data, I would have asked for around $9 million. In total, Adrian Beltre earned $13.4 million last year. So, as Beltre's agent, I would be asking for 33% pay cut after showing that the only recent players with comparable MLB experience earned raises in arbitration. Furthermore, if Beltre were not a free agent, the Mariners would have to offer at least 80% of Beltre's 2008 compensation to him, which would be $10.72 million.

Doesn't $9 million sound like a reasonable asking price, especially if the M's actually went with "comparable" players that signed one-year deals, and offered $1.5 million? Remember, one side or the other wins. Would anybody really agree that Adrian Beltre deserves an 89% pay cut?

I don't think the M's would really offer such a low figure. Maybe the would offer something like $5-6 million. That's not my point though. I think it is reasonable to suppose that Beltre could get awarded $9-10 million in arbitration. That still might be the biggest pay cut in arbitration history.

On top of that, it's equally reasonable to suppose that Beltre won't get $9-10 million in the current market. There is no way he gets more than Figgins annually, and it looks like Chone will get somewhere around $9 million per year.

Why wouldn't Adrian Beltre take a gamble with arbitration? Let's say he agrees to $6 million. That's over a 50% pay cut, so I think that's a very low estimate. Furthermore, let's say he could have got the same money as Chone Figgins in free agency, $9 million annually for 4-5 years. That should be an upper estimate for what he could get in this free agent market.

In this scenario, Beltre earns $3 million fewer dollars in 2010 than he would have as a free agent. Now, let's suppose that Beltre has an average year for him. That would include an OPS almost 100 points higher than last year's, playing in about 35 more games, and challenging for a gold glove, if not winning it.

Unless Garrett Atkins has a huge year, Beltre would unquestionably be the top third baseman available in free agent next off-season. Now, to offset the money he didn't earn in 2009 in this scenario ($3 million), he would have to make it up with an even bigger contract than the hypothetical 4-5 years at $9 million annually he turned down. In other words, he would have to get a minimum of 3-4 years, $30-39 million to break even. As the top third baseman in the market, at 31 years old, in an economy that should be stronger than it is right now, that is highly doable.

Why wouldn't Beltre seriously consider arbitration? I don't think he gets $9 million per year in this market. I think he can get more than $6 million in arbitration too. A return to career averages would likely get him more than $10 million annually in free agency, especially if he is the top free agent option at the hot corner in a better economy than the current one.

Maybe it is a sure bet that Adrian Beltre is gone. After watching him play baseball the past five years, I have no doubt in my mind that he cares about more than money. A chance to join a team like the Red Sox or Angels would certainly appeal to him. On paper though, arbitration is not a bad route for Beltre to go, and that's why I don't think it's a slam dunk that he rejects it.

Phils Ink Polanco, Beltre Suiters Dwindle

Placido Polanco, after not getting offered arbitration, became a hot commodity. The Phillies scooped him up today for a reported 3 years, $18 million to replace Pedro Feliz at third base. Polanco has a significantly different skillset from Feliz, but I'm not certain that he is better (especially as a third baseman) as much as he is different. Then again, the Phillies are only paying Polanco $1 million more per year than they gave Feliz last season, so maybe they see it the same way.

Anyway, the Phillies were one of the teams linked to Adrian Beltre, but they certainly are out of the running now. That leaves the Red Sox as the only other team commonly linked to him. Realistically, I could see Beltre going to the Angels, Red Sox, Orioles, and maybe the Dodgers, Twins, or Astros.

The Angels won't seriously pursue Beltre until Chone Figgins makes a decision on the arbitration he was offered.

Boston probably still has to move Mike Lowell to make room for Beltre. Jason Bay is a bigger priority for them too, and the free agent they seem to covet most is Marco Scutaro.

The Orioles are farther away from the playoffs than the Mariners, farther from Beltre's home than the Mariners, and I doubt would pay him more than what Beltre can get in arbitration.

The Dodgers are a good fit in several ways, but they couldn't even get around to offering Randy Wolf arbitration with their current ownership mess.

The Twins are wild cards, but signing Beltre might wipe out long-term contract talks with Joe Mauer.

Houston is a pretty speculative guess too, and a fringe one at best. They are more focused on Miguel Tejada, and I don't think they can offer the same type of money that Beltre can get in arbitration.

Ironically, both the Twins and Astros might be better served looking at M's second baseman Jose Lopez in a trade if they are interested in acquiring a third baseman at all.

Adrian Beltre has to make a decision on arbitration by Monday. I don't see a team that will heavily pursue his services between now and then. Would you leave $10-$12 million for one year on the table, looking at those options above?

Beltre Offered Arbitration

The Mariners had two arbitration decisions to make by yesterday. They had no Type A free agents, but a couple Type Bs - Erik Bedard and Adrian Beltre. Bedard was not offered arbitration, which is not surprising. He would have likely accepted, because he would be guaranteed a one-year deal close to $8 million. There is no way he gets that in the open market, because he is not worth that kind of money. Good (and easy) decision by the M's to let him go.

Beltre, on the other hand, was offered arbitration. There have been reports linking him to the Phillies and Red Sox. He definitely is a player other clubs are interested in. So, popular thinking is that Beltre will decline arbitration, and get a long-term deal elsewhere.

However, consider Beltre's position. He is coming off an injury-plagued year, that both impacted his playing time and offensive performance. At 30 years old, he is looking at one more lucrative multi-year contract. If he declines arbitration, he gets that deal this off-season.

What if Beltre accepts the arbitration? He will likely get around $12 million in 2010, and likely be healthier and more productive. Also, there is a reasonable chance that teams will be willing to spend more money next year, since teams are concerned right now about the current economic slump.

I think a 31-year-old Beltre, coming off an average season by Beltre standards, can demand a better contract than a 30-year-old Beltre coming off arguably the worst year of his career. Unless Beltre can secure something close to $12 million annually for 4-5 years, I think he will earn more money, both short and long term, if he accepts the M's arbitration.

With that said, the security that comes with a long-term deal, and desire to play for a franchise in better position to win it all in the next few years, are good reasons for Beltre to decline arbitration. Are they good enough to leave some money on the table though? We'll find out by Monday.

2009 Offseason Plan (v 1.1)

As the offseason unfolds, I will update the plan I would have if I were the Mariners GM. This would be version 1.0, but the JJ Hardy deal already messed with my grand scheme considerably. Hence, this is version 1.1. The list is in order from most to least important, though I woudn't work linearly. If a scenario pops up where I can only have one or the other though, the higher one prevails:

1. Sign Felix Hernandez to a long-term extension. The time is NOW! My whole offseason would revolve around him. If a deal can't be worked out, it is time to explore trades involving him. The Bavasi bunch should have done this years ago, but here we are now, and he's going to get paid. The good news is that the M's only have about $40 million committed to the 2010 payroll. They have the flexibility to get this done. I'd prefer a four or five year deal, but I'd be willing to talk about six for Felix. Long-term contracts are risky, but I'm willing to gamble with Felix. He's still young, he does not have any documented arm problems, and he's way more than just a thrower. He's a fiery, competitive pitcher with a golden arm. I'll take my chances with that.
2. Keep Jack Wilson. I thought a deal involving Brandon Morrow and JJ Hardy had some potential, but no longer. I'd still prefer to work out an extension with Wilson that would cut his 2010 salary, but with all the payroll room, it is possible to pick up the option. It's clear that he needs to come back at this point. There are no other options that fit the team well.
3. Re-sign Adrian Beltre. The Mariners could use Matt Tuiasosopo or Jack Hannahan at third base, but neither are Adrian Beltre. He is still fairly young, still an unbelievable defender, and could be a bit of a bargain given the sub-par, injury-plagued year he just finished. Plus, word is that he was a clubhouse force.
4. Re-sign Russell Branyan. Russell the muscle won't be the same bargain he was last year, but he will still be worth the money. However, I'd like to bring him back as the DH if possible. That hinges more on some other priorities, namely the next one...
5. Add a bat, likely a first baseman, and likely through a trade. When I look at the roster, I see two prime trade chips: Brandon Morrow and Jose Lopez. If Beltre is re-signed, Matt Tuiasosopo can take over at second base. I think he will be a better defender, and he may not be much worse of a hitter. Somebody is bound to be intrigued by Lopez's power at second base. As for Morrow, I wonder if he will ever be a consistent starter, but teams would surely be interested in an arm of his caliber. I don't have a specific trade in mind, but my thought is to move Russell Branyan to DH, and acquire a first baseman (Russell isn't an incredible defender). Sean White and Mike Carp could also be part of a trade to get a first baseman.
6. Add a reliable starting pitcher through a trade. Whoever isn't dealt to get a bat is used to get a starter. He wouldn't be an amazing one, just a solid one. Maybe Carlos Silva can be that guy, but I'm not counting on it. The free agent pitching market is really thin, so I like the chances of bringing in the answer via a trade. I'd give Ben Sheets a look, but virtually nobody else in free agency. I think the most realistic idea is to use Morrow to get a bat, and then Lopez to get a starting pitcher.
7. Re-sign Ken Griffey Jr. and Mike Sweeney. I think that clubhouse benefits tremendously from one more year out of both of them. Sweeney and Branyan split time at DH, though I think Branyan would play close to every day by also serving as the backup first baseman. Griffey would be the primary left-handed bench bat. If both players are willing to accept those roles, they come back. Super sub Bill Hall gives the M's the ability to carry a couple guys who may never play the field.
8. Offer Erik Bedard a one-year MLB deal...as a reliever. The M's could use a lefty in the bullpen. Why not take a chance with Bedard? His stuff should translate really well into that role. The change should alleviate the injury concerns too. I have no idea what Bedard would think of this idea, but if the best he can get out of other clubs are spring training invitations, he would have to consider this deal. I've seen speculation that the Red Sox may take a chance on him though, like they did with Brad Penny and John Smoltz. That would not surprise me, and I think any guaranteed MLB contract with a promise to start would trump this offer.
9. Sign some veteran catchers to minor league deals. I would definitely go with Rob Johnson and Adam Moore as the catchers, but Kenji's departure leaves the overall depth a little thin. Someone with experience that's willing to play in Tacoma most of the season would be best. I'm sure there are several backstops out there that fit the bill. Keep one or two of them after they all compete in spring training.

The Mariners have limitless ways they could go this offseason, given all their financial flexibility, and improved organizational depth. They don't have amazing in-house options in many places, but in most places they at least have someone. Realistically, someone unproven is going to get a chance to play. My idea is that left field is Michael Saunders's to lose, and if he does, he gives it to Ryan Langerhans. Then, it's down to either Mike Carp or Matt Tuiasosopo getting a chance, and between those two I'd prefer Tui.

Still, outside help could (and should) come too. With so many options, I think prioritizing is as important as anything. There will always be lots of irons in the fire, and keeping organized amidst the chaos may be difficult. This front office is up to the challenge though.

Yankees Have To Make Roster Move Too

We already knew the Mariners will make a roster move before today's game against the Yankees, with Adrian Beltre going on the DL. It would be surprising if anyone but Ryan Langerhans is added. As of this morning, the Yankees now have a move to make as well that perhaps has a little more intrigue, thanks to a trade. They acquired INF/OF Eric Hinske from the Pirates for two low-level minor-leaguers, RHP Casey Erickson and OF Eric Fryer.

First, a quick look at the deal from Pittsburgh's perspective. Hinske is a solid veteran, and after a decent season playing every day in Tampa Bay last year was coming off the bench for the Pirates this year. In other words, Hinske was not a real integral piece to a team that about a month ago traded Nate McLouth, arguably the closest thing they had to a face of the franchise. Not surprisingly, the asking price was not high. Erickson has a nice ERA is low A, but opponents are hitting almost .300 off him. The other player in the deal, Eric Fryer, has an OPS of under .700 in high A. Both players are 23, so they are already are a bit old for the leagues they are playing in, especially considering their marginal success.

Undoubtedly, Hinske will be a backup for the Yankees also, but the real question is where. He can play first base, third base, left field, and right field. Yankees GM Brian Cashman was on record saying that he was not looking for a hitter because he wanted to see the team once OF Xavier Nady was back. However, it looks like he will miss the entire season now, so Hinske could be taking Nady's spot in the outfield. If that is the case, the Yankees will likely send Brett Gardner to AAA.

However, the Yankees are carrying a pair of light-hitting infielders, Cody Ransom and Ramiro Pena. They like Pena's glove, and he is young. Ransom is in his early 30s, and frankly at this point is more of a AAA infielder and emergency stopgap. I think it makes more sense for Hinske to take one of their spots on the roster, mostly because Brett Gardner is a better player than either Ransom or Pena right now. If that is the route the Yankees choose though, it will look like they sought out an upgrade to backup Alex Rodriguez. They just might have too, considering the added days they are giving him off, and the lackluster production of his reserves. Still, seeking out a better backup for A-Rod seems like something that the New York media would notice, to say the least.

We will just have to wait and see what the Yankees do.

Pelekoudas Assessing

John McLaren getting fired is news, but some of Lee Pelekoudas's comments when fielding questions were more interesting. In particular, he made it clear that he will be assessing players before the trading deadline to figure out how valuable they are to the team. Lee likely has particular players in mind, but who? He will never say, but I have a few guesses:

• Kenji Johjima - It looks like he is going to play some first base, especially once Richie Sexson is gone. He is the first guy I thought of when I heard Lee's comment about assessing players before the deadline. Given his big contract and Japanese ties, I don't think the Mariners would cut him loose. But, the team finally is making a legitimate commitment to Jeff Clement, so Kenji's future with the team may be at first.
• Raul Ibanez - Raul should be a known commodity to Pelekoudas, but his contract expires at the end of the year, and this year is now all about preparing for 2009. I think Lee will be keeping a closer eye on Raul to figure out if that big slump he had earlier this year was a fluke, or a harbinger of something bigger. If he concludes that Raul is not part of the 2009 plans, Raul should have value to a number of teams at the deadline.
• Miguel Batista - He pretty much flamed out as a starter this year, but Pelekoudas is probably seeing if he can fill a role as a reliever for the remainder of his contract. With a season and a half left on the deal, he would be more than a rent-a-player for a contender at the deadline...which in Batista's case probably hurts his trade value.
• Adrian Beltre - There have been enough rumors about Beltre deals over the past few years for me to believe other teams actually have inquired about him. Though I doubt the Mariners have ever seriously considered trading him, he is making a bunch of money and not hitting as well as expected when he was signed. Adrian seems to heat up with the weather, and perhaps Lee is waiting to see if he does. However, between Beltre's hand and contract, I strongly doubt any deal will come close to fruition this year.
• Ichiro - Rumors persist that Ichiro has fallen out of favor in the clubhouse, but I would be looking to trade him based on production. Granted, he is the current face of the franchise, and moving him would be controversial, but there are reasons to assess his value. He is perceived as one of baseball's brightest stars, and maybe he is from a marketing standpoint, but he has not been on the field this year. Honestly, he has always been overrated as a player after his rookie season, and he is showing signs this year that he may be aging. Ichiro's trade value is only going to diminish as time goes on, and if a contending team is looking to make a splash, Ichiro could be their guy. Of all the players on the Mariners right now, Ichiro is the most likely to net a lop-sided package in the Mariners favor, even with his huge contract. If Pelekoudas concludes that age is catching up with Ichiro, maybe Lee will strongly consider a trade.

Nobody really knows what Lee Pelekoudas will do as general manager, but only a couple days in he is off to quite the start. He seems to be decisive, and I am sure he will come to conclusions on whatever players he is assessing. What Pelekoudas does after fully assessing the mess he has may lead to even more upheaval.

Beginning To Believe

Thanks to last night's thrilling game between the Suns and Mavericks and the season finale of American Idol, I doubt many people saw the Mariners' 7-4 victory over the Orioles. The Rangers lost yesterday as well, which means the M's are a mere two games out of first place at the moment. On this date last year, Seattle was already 7.5 games out and in 2004 a whopping 12.5 games behind. Do the Mariners really stand a chance to contend this year?

The short answer is no. Though the offense has improved, it has unfortunately improved very little. As a team, the Mariners batted .256 last year with a .319 OBP and .391 SLG. This year, they are batting .262, still with .319 OBP but a slightly better .401 SLG. Simply put, this little offensive production is not enough to consider the Mariners contenders.

However, there are reasons for hope. It is safe to assume that the offense will improve significantly because Richie Sexson, Adrian Beltre, and Jeremy Reed are all better than what they have shown so far and there are signs that Sexson and Reed are heating up. If those guys just do what they are capable of the offense will be respectable. Also, the Mariners' pitching is noticably better than last year, though they are mediocre by most measures.

A mediocre offense and mediocre pitching may not sound like the makings of a contender, but unless some team really heats up in the division, that may be good enough. The Rangers are in first place right now with a .500 record, so by definition they are mediocre. To this point the AL West looks alot like last year's NL West, which means most around baseball will probably look at the pennant race as a joke. However, even if Seattle is able to contend just because they happen to be in an absurdly weak division, it would mean a ton for this franchise. A pennant race would make fans pay attention again and generate excitement around the team that has been lacking for a couple years. It would restore faith in the organization and instill confidence that the team is improving. It likely would make Seattle a much more attractive place for free agents too.

I still have plenty of problems with what the Mariners are doing (just watch Mike Hargrove's use of the bench or Bill Bavasi's quest to acquire every catcher in the known universe) but I still believe this team can succeed with the current front office. Watching the Mariners the last few years has been so frustrating not just because they have been old and bad, but also because it seems like they never caught any breaks. This year it looks like Seattle is catching a huge break and I hope they capitalize. A .500 record is within reach and I am more and more convinced that may be enough to cause an outburst of playoff fever around Puget Sound.

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