I will go in reverse order from how things are usually reported, because it helps make more sense of what happened. Here are the players the Mariners added to their 40-man roster yesterday:
Showing posts with label Chone Figgins. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Chone Figgins. Show all posts
Mariners Make Flurry of Minor Moves
There was a mini firestorm of moves across baseball yesterday because baseball teams procrastinate. Yesterday was the last day to add players and protect them from the Rule 5 draft. Every move the Mariners made (and everyone else for that matter) must be looked through with the Rule 5 draft in mind, because it is the reason for all the movement on what would have otherwise been the latest, slow-as-molasses offseason day in baseball.
Could You Get Used to Vernon Wells?
| Way back when Vernon Wells was good. Photo taken by Flickr user imagesbyferg. |
Angel in the Outfield?
Match Made in Heaven
If either of these puns would have made your day as the title of this post, let me know in the comments. The only thing that saved me from using one of them is that I had two to choose from, and couldn't make a choice.
The Angels want to find a new home for Vernon Wells. He hasn't been that good for them, they have a logjam in their outfield, and he's going to make $21 million in 2013, and $21 million again in 2014. He is darn near the textbook definition of a commodity impossible to trade.
Of course, I wouldn't be writing this post if I didn't have a Wells trade in mind, particularly a trade involving the Mariners.
What if the Mariners and Angels swapped Chone Figgins for Vernon Wells, straight up?
Fortnight Over
The silence has been deafening. We went a fortnight between posts at the Musings. There is activity behind the scenes. Free time has been sparse with my work schedule this month, and what free time I've had has been sunk into draft prep.
It's time for a post of some sort though. Let's talk about the state of the Mariners roster. The series against the Rockies and Rangers were largely awesome. The current series against the Angels has been a bust so far. This team is up and down, which is hard to watch at times, but I'll gladly take it over the down and really down we've dealt with the past couple seasons. Still, are there any major roster inefficiencies at this point? Here are my takes:
It's time for a post of some sort though. Let's talk about the state of the Mariners roster. The series against the Rockies and Rangers were largely awesome. The current series against the Angels has been a bust so far. This team is up and down, which is hard to watch at times, but I'll gladly take it over the down and really down we've dealt with the past couple seasons. Still, are there any major roster inefficiencies at this point? Here are my takes:
Progress Report: Hitters
Here's part two in my series of grading player performances based on their performances so far. If you want to read part one on the pitching staff, go here. I will note that these grades are mostly based on the players' hitting performance, rather than defense, or fashion sense.The rest of the grades are arbitrarily determined and whatever I felt like giving them. Enjoy!
The Deadline Dance
With the trade deadline coming up, if you don't already check out MLB Trade Rumors (or follow them on Twitter at @mlbtraderumors), I recommend you do. The site is one-stop shopping for trade rumors, both big and small, along with links to sources. Last night they fired off a post specifically about the Mariners. Based on the reports, it looks like:
This simple one from MLB Trade Rumors hits the nail on the head though. I bet it is both completely bogus and entirely true at the same time.
- It will take a ton for someone to get Doug Fister.
- It will take a ton for someone to get Erik Bedard.
- Brandon League is untouchable.
- Felix Hernandez is somewhere beyond untouchable.
This simple one from MLB Trade Rumors hits the nail on the head though. I bet it is both completely bogus and entirely true at the same time.
Kyle Seager Promoted
Kyle Seager is coming to the majors. To make room, Jose Yepez was designated for assignment. Despite being with the ballclub for nearly a week, Yepez did his best Jeff Gray and Chris Ray impressions. He didn't get in a ballgame.
The move is interesting on a couple levels. It is certainly an ominous development for Chone Figgins, who really might be the worst player in the majors right now. A guy batting under .200 with no power, limited patience, and a mediocre glove should see his playing time diminish. Presumably, Seager came up to play some, and there aren't that many more innings to go around with Dustin Ackley at second base, and Adam Kennedy also playing some third.
The move is interesting on a couple levels. It is certainly an ominous development for Chone Figgins, who really might be the worst player in the majors right now. A guy batting under .200 with no power, limited patience, and a mediocre glove should see his playing time diminish. Presumably, Seager came up to play some, and there aren't that many more innings to go around with Dustin Ackley at second base, and Adam Kennedy also playing some third.
Dustin Ackley Gets The Call
Generally, I avoid stories that have already been covered by the excellent ensemble of reporters and bloggers that dutifully follow the Mariners. However, I have to say something about Dustin Ackley. I just have to. I first noticed him as a freshman at North Carolina, and imagined how good he could be. For a fleeting second, I even wondered how wonderful that left-handed stroke would look in Safeco.
That was a pipe dream. Tomorrow, it's reality.
That was a pipe dream. Tomorrow, it's reality.
Fixing Figgins
As I sat down to write this post, my mind was made up. It was time to finally write a post about why Chone Figgins needs to go away. He looks terrible at the plate. His offensive numbers are anemic. It already feels like there isn't a good spot for him in the batting order, and there really won't be a good place once Dustin Ackley is called up and establishes himself.
Quick aside: Ackley is struggling a bit in AAA right now, so he might be a bit farther off than I especially am willing to admit. Perhaps Ackley is a non-factor when it comes to Figgins this year.
Regardless of Dustin, it's painful to watch Chone. As a fan, watching him the past year and a month, I have the sense that this simply isn't working.
Maybe Figgins needs a change of scenery to be good again. The Mariners could hand over the hot corner to Matt Mangini or Matt Tuiasosopo and see what happens. This is a season about developing in-house talent anyway. Finding a trade partner might be difficult, but I still think someone would take a chance on Chone for a bargain bin price.
I thought the numbers would back up my view. After looking them up, I don't know what to think.
Quick aside: Ackley is struggling a bit in AAA right now, so he might be a bit farther off than I especially am willing to admit. Perhaps Ackley is a non-factor when it comes to Figgins this year.
Regardless of Dustin, it's painful to watch Chone. As a fan, watching him the past year and a month, I have the sense that this simply isn't working.
Maybe Figgins needs a change of scenery to be good again. The Mariners could hand over the hot corner to Matt Mangini or Matt Tuiasosopo and see what happens. This is a season about developing in-house talent anyway. Finding a trade partner might be difficult, but I still think someone would take a chance on Chone for a bargain bin price.
I thought the numbers would back up my view. After looking them up, I don't know what to think.
Roars and Grumbles
My friends and I have catchy (in our heads) pseudonyms for most months. Some, like Manuary, we have taken from popular culture (or popular counterculture?) Others, such as Feb-ROAR-ary, are our own.*
*Notice how Feb-ROAR-ary doubles as a handy way to remember how to spell February
Why do I bring up Feb-ROAR-ary? For no good reason, to be honest. It seemed like a nice way to ease into this post. A handful of things have been passing through my head that make me want to grumble. However, grumbles don't get views on the internet - ROARS do. So here are my ROARS about some recent tidbits I've come across:
*Notice how Feb-ROAR-ary doubles as a handy way to remember how to spell February
Why do I bring up Feb-ROAR-ary? For no good reason, to be honest. It seemed like a nice way to ease into this post. A handful of things have been passing through my head that make me want to grumble. However, grumbles don't get views on the internet - ROARS do. So here are my ROARS about some recent tidbits I've come across:
The 2011 Core
This is 2011 Mariners week at the Musings, as I said with the first post yesterday. I split the roster into three basic parts: the guaranteed contracts, the arbitration eligible players, and everyone else (the folks making the minimum salary with no way out unless the team ditches them). Today is a look at the guaranteed 2011 contracts.
A guaranteed contract is a big deal, both for a player and a team. On the team's side, all the money is guaranteed, even if the player is cut loose. It's a significant financial commitment. On the player's side, the system is set up to make them go about a decade in pro ball before hitting free agency.
The system is set up for players with guaranteed contracts, particularly big ones, to be the core of a team. Players need to be good in a team's eyes to warrant big money, and they have to have accumulated enough MLB service time to make it this far. We will see that the Mariners have a few exceptions to this rule, but the basic premises set up how I will evaluate the core.
The first question is as simple as they come: How good is the core? Is it a group a winning team can be built around? What are its strengths and weaknesses?
The second question is almost as important: Is the core worth the money it is getting paid? There is only so much money to go around, and if players are gobbling up more salary than they are worth, it means that the overall core probably isn't that good, and also limits the ability to improve it with outside help. This is why bad contracts are so crippling.
I will start with the second question and get back to the first. Here is a look at each 2011 Mariner with a guaranteed contract:
Mariners Poised for Rebound
Another day, another M's loss. At least the earlier bullpen meltdown guaranteed that this would not be a walk-off loss. Not that the bullpen really lost the game, because the offense blew a bunch of golden, bases-loaded opportunities.
Believe big!
The most interesting part of this game happened immediately afterwards. A players-only meeting was called, and usually I don't pay much attention to these. I have no idea what was said, but this one has a chance to be powerful. It was called by new players - Cliff Lee, Milton Bradley, and Chone Figgins.
This team has looked directionless on the field. It seems stuck in its ways, particularly of late, and that wouldn't be such a bad thing if their ways weren't so bad. The players are well aware of the hole and corresponding rut they are in, and it stinks for everyone involved.
However, it is easy to be competitive and happy when a team is winning. It is much harder to be on good terms when a team is losing, particularly when players are paid a ton to win.
That is part of what intrigues me so much about this team meeting. This season keeps drawing comparisons to the 2008 debacle, where everything went wrong. There have been nights where I have wondered if this team would be remembered in a similar way, and tonight was one of those nights - until the team meeting.
There are guys in that clubhouse who aren't going to let this season go without a fight. They won't accept losing, and they keep doing things behind closed doors to try to kick start something. Bad stretches have a knack for showing true colors, and I think this team saw something promising in the wake of this latest loss.
It saw Cliff Lee, increasingly the epicenter of trade talks, step up tonight and talk to this team about whatever he talked about. That's pretty special. Not only is he epically good more often than not on the mound, but he is invested in the team. He is all about winning, even with every reason in the world to worry about himself at this point. Talk about make-up that is off-the-charts.
How about Milton Bradley too? What kind of bizarro world are the 2010 Mariners living in? He was supposed to be the guy that would benefit from this clubhouse atmosphere. As of tonight, the tables completely flipped. It was Milton Bradley trying to bring this team together. He might be in the process of emerging as a clubhouse leader. Unbelievable.
Seeing Chone Figgins step up might have been the best of all. He is around for a while with the contract he signed. He has a chance to become a new clubhouse rock, in a way that an aging guy like Mike Sweeney can't be.
A clubhouse meeting won't breed a 35-home run slugger. However, these guys have to live with each other and the miserable season they are suffering through for a ton more games. Losing like this is ugly, and it seeps in everywhere.
Yet, there are guys stepping up, taking accountability, and putting up a fight. There are players that care on this team, and that take pride in the product on the field.
A new order might have begun to be established tonight. It could prove to be big. I don't think it is big enough to lift the 2010 Mariners from the ashes, but it might be enough to keep this organization from sinking, and needing to clean house. Losing ballclubs can develop losing attitudes, but this one has not yet, and I don't think it will after the leadership shown tonight. Too many people don't just say they care. They legitimately care.
Talking about the leadership shown in a clubhouse meeting totally ranks as a moral victory, and those don't do anything for the win-loss column. However, after watching how this team has performed for the past week, I'll take any victory I can get. Tonight could prove to be a turning point though. This team still believes it is better (and that's good, because it is), and it is not about to give in either.
Believe big!
The most interesting part of this game happened immediately afterwards. A players-only meeting was called, and usually I don't pay much attention to these. I have no idea what was said, but this one has a chance to be powerful. It was called by new players - Cliff Lee, Milton Bradley, and Chone Figgins.
This team has looked directionless on the field. It seems stuck in its ways, particularly of late, and that wouldn't be such a bad thing if their ways weren't so bad. The players are well aware of the hole and corresponding rut they are in, and it stinks for everyone involved.
However, it is easy to be competitive and happy when a team is winning. It is much harder to be on good terms when a team is losing, particularly when players are paid a ton to win.
That is part of what intrigues me so much about this team meeting. This season keeps drawing comparisons to the 2008 debacle, where everything went wrong. There have been nights where I have wondered if this team would be remembered in a similar way, and tonight was one of those nights - until the team meeting.
There are guys in that clubhouse who aren't going to let this season go without a fight. They won't accept losing, and they keep doing things behind closed doors to try to kick start something. Bad stretches have a knack for showing true colors, and I think this team saw something promising in the wake of this latest loss.
It saw Cliff Lee, increasingly the epicenter of trade talks, step up tonight and talk to this team about whatever he talked about. That's pretty special. Not only is he epically good more often than not on the mound, but he is invested in the team. He is all about winning, even with every reason in the world to worry about himself at this point. Talk about make-up that is off-the-charts.
How about Milton Bradley too? What kind of bizarro world are the 2010 Mariners living in? He was supposed to be the guy that would benefit from this clubhouse atmosphere. As of tonight, the tables completely flipped. It was Milton Bradley trying to bring this team together. He might be in the process of emerging as a clubhouse leader. Unbelievable.
Seeing Chone Figgins step up might have been the best of all. He is around for a while with the contract he signed. He has a chance to become a new clubhouse rock, in a way that an aging guy like Mike Sweeney can't be.
A clubhouse meeting won't breed a 35-home run slugger. However, these guys have to live with each other and the miserable season they are suffering through for a ton more games. Losing like this is ugly, and it seeps in everywhere.
Yet, there are guys stepping up, taking accountability, and putting up a fight. There are players that care on this team, and that take pride in the product on the field.
A new order might have begun to be established tonight. It could prove to be big. I don't think it is big enough to lift the 2010 Mariners from the ashes, but it might be enough to keep this organization from sinking, and needing to clean house. Losing ballclubs can develop losing attitudes, but this one has not yet, and I don't think it will after the leadership shown tonight. Too many people don't just say they care. They legitimately care.
Talking about the leadership shown in a clubhouse meeting totally ranks as a moral victory, and those don't do anything for the win-loss column. However, after watching how this team has performed for the past week, I'll take any victory I can get. Tonight could prove to be a turning point though. This team still believes it is better (and that's good, because it is), and it is not about to give in either.
Zduriencik Still The Right Man
Since the Mariners are off today, I want to try to push something out to think about. I could count the podcast (and you should listen if you are interested in getting another take on this team's struggles), but we might as well make today a double feature.
It has become apparent that the 2010 Mariners aren't as good as the 2009 Mariners. Considering how much worse they are, and all the new faces, it is easy to presume that some moves made by Jack Zduriencik have backfired badly. In fact, it is logical to presume that.
So, what if Jack Z hadn't made any moves this offseason? Would this team be in better shape? Time for some bullet points...
For all that Jack touched that turned to gold last year, the same kind of breaks haven't been there this year. I don't see any catastrophic moves made by Z as of yet though. Maybe one bad one (the Figgins signing), but when put in the context of all the great ones he made last year, and the promising talent quickly accumulating the farm system, I still see a process heading in the right direction.
It has become apparent that the 2010 Mariners aren't as good as the 2009 Mariners. Considering how much worse they are, and all the new faces, it is easy to presume that some moves made by Jack Zduriencik have backfired badly. In fact, it is logical to presume that.
So, what if Jack Z hadn't made any moves this offseason? Would this team be in better shape? Time for some bullet points...
- Kenji Johjima would still be catching - Is there much doubt that Kenji would be the best catcher on this team right now, or at least giving Josh Bard a run for his money? Hard to argue against that, offensively and defensively. However, is it fair to pin Kenji's sudden retirement on Zduriencik? I don't think so, and it did free up some money. It might be fair to criticize Z for not replacing him, but I still think Josh Bard was the right type of guy to target. The real problem to me is trotting out Rob Johnson so often because A) he isn't that good and B) it did Adam Moore's development no favors before he got hurt (though admittedly he looked totally lost at the plate). I think Don Wakamatsu shares some of that blame though.
- Russell Branyan would still be at first base - The team seemed concerned about Branyan's back, and their concerns were warranted. Guess what? He wouldn't have made much of a difference because he missed the first month of the year. Since coming off the DL, he has a .219/.301/.438 line, which is definitely better than what we've seen, but noticeably below his production from last year too.
- Bill Hall would still be on the bench, or maybe playing regularly somewhere - Who would you rather have, Bill Hall or Casey Kotchman? So far, Hall has accumulated a .188/.282/.333 line in Boston, though with only 79 plate appearances. However, his combined line last year was .201/.258/.338 with the Brewers and M's, and in 2008 he batted .225/.299/.396. I don't think his production will get much better with more time. Granted, Hall brings some defensive versatility, and a little more thunder in his stick, but it's hard to argue this offense or defense is in better shape with him over Kotchman.
- Adrian Beltre is still at third base - This is another obvious spot where things would be better if they had stayed the same. Beltre is having his best season so far since his massive NL campaign that netted the big contract from the M's. However, is it really Z's fault that Beltre moved on? He offered Beltre arbitration, and I wrote about how Beltre would have earned more by accepting it. There is nothing more Zduriencik could have done to keep him around, so I have a hard time pinning this one on him. It's hardly like Beltre was just shown the door.
- Carlos Silva is in the rotation - ...and we don't have Milton Bradley. Even with as surprisingly good that Silva has been so far, is this team better with him? With the hot starts by Doug Fister and Jason Vargas, I don't think so. Furthermore, is this offense worse with Milton Bradley? Again, I don't think so. Bradley is one of the better hitters in the lineup, even with his slow start. As much as the national media has some fun with this deal at the M's expense, I wouldn't ask for a mulligan.
- Miguel Batista is still around - ...and I'm guessing that means Kanekoa Texeira or Jesus Colome is out. Texeira has been inconsistent, but that beats consistently horrible. Batista versus Colome...yeah, I'll admit, that's a tougher call.
- Brandon Morrow is still around - ...and Brandon League is not. Certainly, League has been inconsistent, but is he really more inconsistent than Morrow? So far, in 9 starts with the Jays, Brandon has averaged exactly 5 innings a start, and sports a 6.80 ERA. He strikes out almost 12 batters per 9 innings, but almost walks 6 at the same rate. There are some numbers (particularly a high BABIP) that suggest he will get a little better, but you would hope so with those horrendous numbers. Would the current M's be better if they didn't make the deal? I'm going to say no. Besides, even with some anticipated regression, Morrow is still the maddeningly inconsistent Morrow we loved and hated the past couple seasons.
- No Cliff Lee - Zdurienciek didn't give anyone up on the 25-man roster for Lee, so he was simply added to the roster (for the sake of what this post is exploring). This team is better with him, and I don't think I have to build much of a case for that.
- No Chone Figgins - This is the fairest move to criticize. Figgins has clearly been a bust to this point, and the contract may lock the M's in to several more years of this. Especially with other, cheaper alternatives like Kelly Johnson and Orlando Hudson doing better, this does not look like the move that was best for the ballclub.
For all that Jack touched that turned to gold last year, the same kind of breaks haven't been there this year. I don't see any catastrophic moves made by Z as of yet though. Maybe one bad one (the Figgins signing), but when put in the context of all the great ones he made last year, and the promising talent quickly accumulating the farm system, I still see a process heading in the right direction.
2010 Mariners Preview
It has been a while since I've woken up and known the M's are going to play a game that matters. That is the beauty of opening day for me.
By now you have probably checked out enough previews and predictions, so I will try to take a bit different approach. Instead of giving some broad overview, or trying to give exact numbers, I will focus on key changes, and key players. With this team, that's more than enough to write about.
So, here are my reasons the 2010 Mariners won't be just like the 2009 bunch.
First of all, the changes:
For me, the questions remain unanswered. About the only thing I am sure of is that this team will score some more runs. How many more though? Will the pitching and defense stay just as good too?
I don't know how good this team is, but I think guys like Franklin Gutierrez, Casey Kotchman, Milton Bradley, Erik Bedard, Ian Snell, and David Aardsma will go a long ways toward determining this team's fate. I just listed a quarter of the roster, and that's the point. Turn anywhere on this team, and there is a looming question mark. No matter how much the roster is analyzed, those answers won't come until the season starts to unfold.
Hopefully the answers are more good than bad.
By now you have probably checked out enough previews and predictions, so I will try to take a bit different approach. Instead of giving some broad overview, or trying to give exact numbers, I will focus on key changes, and key players. With this team, that's more than enough to write about.
So, here are my reasons the 2010 Mariners won't be just like the 2009 bunch.
First of all, the changes:
- Chone Figgins replaces Adrian Beltre - It is debatable which of these two players is actually better, but let's not forget how bad Beltre's 2009 campaign was. He missed significant time with injuries, and even when playing, they made him a shell of the hitter he can be. Figgins in 2010 will blow away Beltre's 2009 production, even if the defense isn't as good. This is one of the biggest reasons to expect the M's offense to be better this year.
- Casey Kotchman replaces Russell Branyan - Kind of an opposite argument here to the Figgins/Beltre one. With Branyan's back problems, it is pretty clear who is the superior player right now. However, there is no getting around the gaping hole Branyan's 2009 production at the plate leaves. Kotchman won't fill it, but he should at least hit for average, and he brings a much, much better glove with him to first. Casey is a very different player than Branyan, but overall I think he is a better replacement then most are giving him credit for right now.
- Jack Wilson replaces Yuniesky Betancourt/Ronny Cedeno/et al - Jack isn't a great hitter, but he's definitely better than Yuni or Ronny was in 2009. His defense is light years ahead of virtually every shortstop too (especially Yuni). It's easy to point at Jack and say he is a reason this team won't score enough runs, but don't forget who he is replacing from 2009. He is a big reason this team has a better starting nine this year - and even a reason it is reasonable to expect the M's to score some more runs.
- Milton Bradley replaces Endy Chavez/Michael Saunders - I don't care how good Bradley's legs are, the defense takes a hit with him out there. However, he is the superior hitter. Yet another reason this team will score some more runs, though not as clear-cut if this is a significant upgrade, considering the defense, and Bradley's well-documented past.
- The starting rotation has more upside - Chris Jakubauskas, Garrett Olson, and Carlos Silva combined to make 25 starts for the 2009 Mariners. That's not going to happen this year. Ian Snell is in line to eat up a lion's share of those starts. Certainly, Snell is a question mark, but I'll take him over the trio he replaces. Furthermore, Cliff Lee is in line to take Jarrod Washburn's starts, and while Wash was surprisingly fantastic, I'll take Lee too.
- Kanekoa Teixeira and Shawn Kelley are taking over middle relief - Both of these pitchers have question marks around their ability to handle this role, but would you rather have them, or the Miguel Batista/Garret Olson/Chris Jakubauskas cross-your-fingers-for-a-few-innings mix the M's had in that role in 2009? I thought so.
- Brandon League is in the bullpen too - Brandon Morrow, Roy Corcoran, and Randy Messenger combined for 44 relief appearances last year. A healthy Sean White and Shawn Kelley may take some of those appearances, but many of them will likely be handed to Brandon League. That's a good thing.
- Ichiro will be worse, but how much worse? Ichiro had one of his best years in 2009. Age and regression to the mean should catch up to him in 2010. He can't be banked on to put an equally insane year, though he should still be great. However, on a team offensively challenged, this is worth pointing out, and worrying some about.
- How good will David Aardsma be? I liked Aardsma as a breakout candidate last year, but never expected him to be as good as he was. He isn't likely to keep his home run rate as low as he did last year, and he has been beaten around pretty hard in spring training too. I wonder how long Wak will stick with Aardsma in the closer's role. I think Mark Lowe takes over as early as mid-May. I'm that worried about Aardsma.
- How good will the catchers be? I mean this in a positive way. The M's have suffered through a couple seasons where the backstops have more or less been a black hole on offense. That shouldn't be the case this year. Both Rob Johnson and Adam Moore have some offensive upside, and in this case, even being below average is a noticeable improvement. Johnson and Moore are more than capable of that. Plus, gone are the days of pitchers whining about Kenji's pitch selection.
- Will Ken Griffey Jr. be better than last year? Supposedly, Griffey's knee has been bad for a few years, but is better now. For what it's worth, Griffey's walk rate increased significantly the past few years, and his BABIP went way down. There is a correlation, but that doesn't mean causation, especially at Griffey's advanced age. If the knee has really been that big of a problem, perhaps Griffey can bounce back more than almost anyone (including myself) thinks he can.
- How good is Franklin Gutierrez? As big as Guti's 2009 campaign was, 2010 is in some ways even bigger. He established that he is a good player, but how good? It's easy to look at his breakout season, and assume he will regress down towards his career rates in 2010. That's okay if that happens, but I'm just going to throw this out there: Guti finally got a chance to play every day. He flashed some serious power at times in 2009. The M's want to see more of that, along with more patience. They've seen enough of both out of Guti in spring training to toy around with hitting him third. What if he sticks in the third spot, and hits around 25 home runs? That would put him close to 100 RBIs, if not over. Combine that with a decent batting average, improved on-base percentage, elite defense (and the newfound love for defense in the media), and a pennant run by the M's, and Franklin Gutierrez might get some MVP consideration.
For me, the questions remain unanswered. About the only thing I am sure of is that this team will score some more runs. How many more though? Will the pitching and defense stay just as good too?
I don't know how good this team is, but I think guys like Franklin Gutierrez, Casey Kotchman, Milton Bradley, Erik Bedard, Ian Snell, and David Aardsma will go a long ways toward determining this team's fate. I just listed a quarter of the roster, and that's the point. Turn anywhere on this team, and there is a looming question mark. No matter how much the roster is analyzed, those answers won't come until the season starts to unfold.
Hopefully the answers are more good than bad.
Ain't over 'til it's over, and we haven't begun
Milton Bradley is getting ejected every other day. Cliff Lee got suspended, but it doesn't matter anyway with his abdominal strain. Doug Fister got drilled by a line drive. Jack Hannahan won't be ready for the start of the season. All Chone Figgins does is walk and boot more balls at second base than any of us are comfortable with. Jose Lopez isn't making anyone forget about Adrian Beltre at third base, either.
Where did all the optimism go?
It shouldn't be tempered as much as it is right now. There are all sorts of reasons to be excited for this team and its potential - or at least a whole bunch of reasons to not have a drastically different opinion after the past week or two of spring training.
First of all, the injuries are getting blown out of proportion. Jeff Sullivan over at Lookout Landing did an excellent job calming nerves about the Jack Hannahan situation. If Hannahan had pulled his groin in May, I'd be shocked if people reacted like they have right now. He is a utility infielder gone for a couple weeks, and he isn't the only utility infielder the M's have. Depth is as much about having guys you can limp along with when little things pop up as having guys as good as each other. This team can limp along with whoever takes Hannahan's spot.
Copy and paste that last paragraph for the Doug Fister's little injury, though I think in the end he will be ready anyway, and I'm not sure he makes the roster even if he is totally healthy.
Cliff Lee's abdomen is more troublesome. Not only is Lee a critical piece, but it wreaks of an injury that could linger. However, have we forgotten about the 2009 Angels already? Remember how they started the year without Kelvim Escobar or John Lackey, and everyone wondered who would step up in their rotation? Then, on top of that, Nick Adenhart DIED a couple weeks into the season? Kelvim Escobar never came back for the Angels, but John Lackey did, and at the end of the year the Angels were among the best teams in baseball.
Does an abdominal strain to the number two starter sound as bad as what the Angels faced last year? I know I am glossing over significant personnel differences, but the point is that nobody had the Angels pegged as a premier team coming out of spring training last year. People (including myself) looked at their injuries and said "no way," but yet there they were. There is freedom for things to happen when games are decided on the field, regardless of what might be expected.
Lastly, here and there I see some fretting over Griffey's lack of production in the spring, and the errors accumulating at second and third base. These worries could be prophetic. I'm not going to say they don't matter. However, if we are worried about spring performances, guys like Eric Byrnes and Casey Kotchman can't be conveniently ignored. Both look pretty darn good. Their performances have as much of a chance to be prophetic as anyone else's.
It is too easy to lose sight of the big picture in spring training. Production only becomes a story when it is connected to some pre-existing assumption. People already wondered if Griffey could produce, and already wondered if the Figgins/Lopez position switch would work too. Injuries are magnified because they upset the all-important opening day roster. From a player's perspective, I don't doubt that it's a big deal to break camp with the big league ballclub. From an organizational perspective though, injuries should be assumed. Losing a guy for a week or two is unfortunate, but it happens, and it's a week or two out of a six-month season whether it happens in early April or the middle of June.
A couple weeks ago, I thought this team had a chance to win the division, and a pitching staff with the potential to carry it on a deep postseason run. Nothing has happened since then to change this team's potential. We haven't learned much about this team in the past few weeks that we didn't know a couple months ago, Cliff Lee's abdominal pull notwithstanding. That's not enough for me to lose my optimism, especially with how young the season is. There is no good reason to think much of anything different yet.
Where did all the optimism go?
It shouldn't be tempered as much as it is right now. There are all sorts of reasons to be excited for this team and its potential - or at least a whole bunch of reasons to not have a drastically different opinion after the past week or two of spring training.
First of all, the injuries are getting blown out of proportion. Jeff Sullivan over at Lookout Landing did an excellent job calming nerves about the Jack Hannahan situation. If Hannahan had pulled his groin in May, I'd be shocked if people reacted like they have right now. He is a utility infielder gone for a couple weeks, and he isn't the only utility infielder the M's have. Depth is as much about having guys you can limp along with when little things pop up as having guys as good as each other. This team can limp along with whoever takes Hannahan's spot.
Copy and paste that last paragraph for the Doug Fister's little injury, though I think in the end he will be ready anyway, and I'm not sure he makes the roster even if he is totally healthy.
Cliff Lee's abdomen is more troublesome. Not only is Lee a critical piece, but it wreaks of an injury that could linger. However, have we forgotten about the 2009 Angels already? Remember how they started the year without Kelvim Escobar or John Lackey, and everyone wondered who would step up in their rotation? Then, on top of that, Nick Adenhart DIED a couple weeks into the season? Kelvim Escobar never came back for the Angels, but John Lackey did, and at the end of the year the Angels were among the best teams in baseball.
Does an abdominal strain to the number two starter sound as bad as what the Angels faced last year? I know I am glossing over significant personnel differences, but the point is that nobody had the Angels pegged as a premier team coming out of spring training last year. People (including myself) looked at their injuries and said "no way," but yet there they were. There is freedom for things to happen when games are decided on the field, regardless of what might be expected.
Lastly, here and there I see some fretting over Griffey's lack of production in the spring, and the errors accumulating at second and third base. These worries could be prophetic. I'm not going to say they don't matter. However, if we are worried about spring performances, guys like Eric Byrnes and Casey Kotchman can't be conveniently ignored. Both look pretty darn good. Their performances have as much of a chance to be prophetic as anyone else's.
It is too easy to lose sight of the big picture in spring training. Production only becomes a story when it is connected to some pre-existing assumption. People already wondered if Griffey could produce, and already wondered if the Figgins/Lopez position switch would work too. Injuries are magnified because they upset the all-important opening day roster. From a player's perspective, I don't doubt that it's a big deal to break camp with the big league ballclub. From an organizational perspective though, injuries should be assumed. Losing a guy for a week or two is unfortunate, but it happens, and it's a week or two out of a six-month season whether it happens in early April or the middle of June.
A couple weeks ago, I thought this team had a chance to win the division, and a pitching staff with the potential to carry it on a deep postseason run. Nothing has happened since then to change this team's potential. We haven't learned much about this team in the past few weeks that we didn't know a couple months ago, Cliff Lee's abdominal pull notwithstanding. That's not enough for me to lose my optimism, especially with how young the season is. There is no good reason to think much of anything different yet.
Early Thoughts On Spring Training
It's about time I post something this month, but the problem is that there just isn't much to be said that isn't already being said by others. Spring training is fun, but it's hard to evaluate much of what going on when a) all you have are radio broadcasts b) players only get a few ABs, or 20-30 pitches, and c) in those few opportunities, many are trying to get rust off/work on something new.
So I don't write much about spring training, other than it's fun for what it is. Personally, I don't put too much stock in spring performances unless they are way too good or bad to ignore. So far, nobody has had time to be stellar, and only Garret Olson and Kenn Kasparek have had forgettable outings.
I've come up with a few thoughts to share though:
So I don't write much about spring training, other than it's fun for what it is. Personally, I don't put too much stock in spring performances unless they are way too good or bad to ignore. So far, nobody has had time to be stellar, and only Garret Olson and Kenn Kasparek have had forgettable outings.
I've come up with a few thoughts to share though:
- I hope Chone Figgins stays at second, and Jose Lopez at third. Statistics and scouting both give good reasons to believe the move will work, and a few weeks into the experiment, both players seem to be acclimating fairly well.
- I wonder how long Dustin Ackley will stay in the major league camp. He is getting rave reviews much like Brandon Morrow did in his first spring training. That scares me a little, but there's absolutely no room for Ackley on the opening day roster. Personally, I would still send him down once minor league camp opens up. There are enough guys that need to get work in who figure to be a part of the 2010 Mariners, and Dustin will be best served getting a lion's share of time on the field, instead of a few innings here and there.
- Matt Tuiasosopo is off to a hot start, much like last spring training. Undoubtedly, that will increase interest in his chances to make the opening day roster. He projects as one of the final cuts anyway.
- Mike Sweeney is off to a hot start too. There is no spot for him on the roster, but if he continues to hit well, what do the Mariners do? The players are professionals, but Sweeney was such a big part of the team last year, and he has asserted himself in the clubhouse yet again. Add a strong spring, and his situation will be as delicate as an aging non-roster invitee's can be.
- I would like to see Ryan Garko get some time behind the plate. By all accounts, he only moved because Victor Martinez was ahead of him in the Indians organization. Garko becomes a much more valuable commodity if he can catch some.
- Respected M's reporter Shannon Drayer has said multiple times that Eric Byrnes "looks fast" out on the field. Coming off significant leg injuries, that is worth noting. I'm not convinced his legs caused all of his problems that past few seasons, but he at least has a chance to prove me wrong if his legs are indeed strong and healthy.
Beltre Says No, Figgins Says Yes
In the end, this is ironically a breath of fresh air if you ask me. Adrian Beltre will still get paid plenty well for his services. He already has a boatload of money. It's rare for a player in his career to get two significant multi-year contracts in free agency. I honestly don't think Beltre's decision was about the money. It was about exploring his options, and picking his best chance to contribute to a team built to win now. He couldn't have done that if he had accepted arbitration.
Now, on to the newest Mariners, and Beltre's likely replacement at the hot corner, Chone Figgins. He officially signed yesterday for 4 years, $36 million, with an optional fifth year in the deal that vests basically if he's pretty awesome for the four years of the deal guaranteed. It's quite a bit of money for a slap-hitting, 30-something, diminutive professional pest.
The Figgins contract is money well spent though. I am a little concerned about how the deal will look a few years from now, but there is a good chance that Chone ages gracefully. His greatest assets are speed, plate discipline, a high contact rate, and good defense at third base, one of the more premium positions. Speed tends to stick around for a while (look at Ichiro), plate discipline tends to improve, while contact and defense tend to erode. However, improved plate discipline helps offset a diminishing contact rate, and Figgins could slide over to second or into the outfield as his defense diminishes.
What gets me excited about the Figgins deal is what it does for the M's offense. It has an identity now. Ichiro and Figgins should be at the top of the order (personally, I would keep Ichiro in the leadoff spot, and bat Figgins second). Chone's patient approach at the plate offsets the drawbacks of Ichiro's aggresive mindset, freeing Ichiro up even more to do what he does so well. However, that's the only major difference between the two at the dish. They both thrive on putting the ball and play, and letting their legs do the rest.
When a team faced the 2009 Mariners, they gave closer looks to Ichiro, Russell Branyan, and may a few other players who happened to be hot at the time. It was a handful of individuals. When a team faces the 2010 Mariners, they will always start with the top of the lineup now, and trying to deal with the pressure it can generate. It's more than a couple of players. It's an identity, a unique facet of the Mariners offense that will worry opponents. While Beltre has offensive value, his skillset does not mesh with Ichiro's to produce that kind of identity.
Plus, it's sweet taking such a big piece of the Angels' success away from them...although, the last time the M's signed a corner infielder away from LA of A (Scott Spiezio), it was a disaster. I liked that move a ton when it happened too, more than I like the Figgins deal right now, actually.
Figgins doesn't bring a bad back to Seattle though, or a stupid red tuft of hair below his chin. He brings skills that this team needs, and meshes beautifully with the talent already here. The price makes me hesitant, but not despondent. That's probably the sign of a fair deal. Welcome to your new home, Chone. I can't wait to see you slap that ridiculous rally monkey silly.
