Scott Baker Joins Roster Mix

Scott Baker, back in the day (Keith Allison, photographer)

The Mariners made a couple small moves today, ditching Carlos Peguero on the Royals for cash or a player to be named later, and signing Scott Baker to a minor league deal with an invite to spring training (plus incentives for innings pitched). The Peguero move is minor - he was already in DFA limbo - though I will miss his mammoth at-bats in Tacoma. He was a fun one to watch, much in the same way Dan Cortes was a few years back. POWER and FATAL FLAWS, which will win?! In AAA, the outcome wasn't so certain as it is in the majors. Hence the fun.

The more interesting move is Scott Baker, who has been rumored as a fit for the Mariners for some time now. He joins Mark Rogers on the M's scrap heap of possible rotation arms, though is much stronger bet than Rogers, given that Rogers has struggled to throw strikes throughout his minor league career. Baker, on the other hand, sports 17.5 career WAR in nearly 1,000 MLB innings.

Baker, now 33 years old, isn't exactly a workhorse, given that he has only topped 200 innings once in his career. He also doesn't do anything particularly well - he has a decent strikeout rate, good walk rate, average home run rate, his fair share of ground balls, doesn't work all that deep into ballgames - literally no stand-out skill. However, Baker also doesn't have any real flaws, and no flaws over 170-ish innings racks up some surprising WAR.

Now, there is the possibility that Baker is finished, particularly given that he had Tommy John surgery in 2012. However, he made it back for three starts right at the end of last season and held his own. Many Tommy John arms bounce back more the second year after returning to the mound too, so there is a non-zero chance that Scott Baker gets stronger as 2014 wears on. If he does, the Mariners have themselves a solid rotation arm.

Frankly, a roster spot is Baker's to lose. His contract reportedly includes incentives tied to innings pitched. The only way he doesn't crack the rotation is if both James Paxton and Erasmo Ramirez look good in spring training, and in that case Baker is likely a bullpen arm.

Ervin Santana and Ubaldo Jimenez, the top arms left in free agency, have had some up-and-down years recently, though both entered the market after "up" seasons. Baker hits the market "down." He probably isn't as good as Santana or Jimenez, but there isn't a $10 million talent gap between them, and his contract isn't about to make things awkward if/when more of the M's young arms are ready for a try in the rotation. It's been a while since I've felt this good about a move the Mariners made.

More Inevitable Roster Cuts

Finally, the pitchers are getting whittled down. Gone today are Chris Smith, Charlie Haeger, Dan Cortes, and Manny Delcarmen. With all due respect to this quartet though, I wonder who goes next. These aren't terribly interesting cuts.

Chris Smith looked like AAA depth all along, and now he officially is.

Charlie Haeger, a longshot to begin with, was hurt to start spring training.

Dan Cortes couldn't throw strikes.

I suppose Manny Delcarmen is a little bit interesting, but he struggled to find the strike zone in camp too. If he stays in the M's system, they might want to think about stretching him out as a starter, just to see what happens. The odds are that it won't work, but he has three pitches he can get over the plate, and he doesn't have the kind of velocity to overpower batters anymore. At the very least, starting might help Delcarmen better develop ways to induce weak contact.

Honestly though, less than a week into the Cactus league schedule, I didn't see any of these guys making the roster. What's more interesting to me is who hasn't been cut.

Dramatic Transaction Reenactments - Episode 2: Yuni to KC

In the second installment of the potentially ongoing series Dramatic Transaction Reenactments, we get an inside look at how the Royals acquired shortstop Yuniesky Betancourt. In the process, we see the remarkable lengths that Z will go to keep deals secret, plus a raw, and perhaps sobering, glimpse into how the Royals operate.

As with the first video, some liberties may have been taken. It is a Dramatic Transaction Reenactment, after all:

M's, Feller, and More From Cyberspace

Several things have been going on in the baseball world that I've wanted to write about, but me and my urge to spread holiday cheer to people I see face-to-face on a regular basis have kept me away from the blogosphere.

Luckily, several great writers have already said lots of what I'd like to talk about. So, instead of stealing their ideas, I'll link to them:

Winter Updates

There are lots of Mariners playing baseball right now. Some just wrapped up their season in Arizona, while others are playing in Venezuela, the Dominican Republic, and Australia. For a complete list of M's spanning the globe right now, click here. I could give a few thoughts on each player, but the list is quite long. Instead, I will pick out players from the crowd to highlight.

September Call-Ups Finally Arrive

The only downside of Tacoma's long playoff run is that the Mariners continued to play with 25 players (okay, 26 counting Guillermo Quiroz) through the majority of September. Prospects are more interesting to watch in lost seasons, so that was a bummer at the MLB level. However, I do think it was much more valuable for those prospects to experience winning together in meaningful roles at AAA. I'm not exactly sure prospects will get "The Big League Experience" watching this "big league offense."

In total, one player from West Tennessee and six players from Tacoma were added:

A Rosterful Weekend

The Mariners set their 40-man roster heading into free agency by the Friday deadline. Players not on the 40-man roster are eligible for the Rule 5 Draft, unless they are still pretty young (highly imprecise definition, but that's the basic idea). As we have come to expect under Jack Zduriencik, the M's were one of the most active teams. They added six prospects to the roster, lost a couple pitchers through waivers, and through it all the most interesting note from the weekend might be a potential position switch for a top prospect.

First off, the additions:

• Dan Cortes, RHP - Cortes was the prize of the Yuni Betancourt trade. He still has good stuff, but has control issues. Still, he is likely to hit AAA at some point this year. Definitely worth protecting.
• Ricky Orta, RHP - Orta spent most of the season in AA West Tennessee's bullpen, and enjoyed his finest professional season to date. He has a live arm, and maybe something clicked for him this past year. He should be in AAA in 2010.
• Edward Paredes, LHP - I am surprised that Paredes was added to the roster. He is yet to show much potential, and he has not played above advanced A ball. I don't think a team would have looked at Paredes as a possible Rule 5 pick, and even if they did, I'm not sure I'd feel real bad.
• JC Ramirez, LHP - The pitcher formerly know as Juan Ramirez (and still listed by most sources as Juan Ramirez) is an interesting case. Scouts continue to rave about his stuff and mental makeup. However, he is yet to turn that into real solid success, even in the low minors. Given how much some think of his future, he definitely is worth protecting, even though he has at least a few years before he is ready for the majors.
• Anthony Varvaro, RHP - Like several M's pitching prospects this past season, Varvaro was shifted from the rotation to the bullpen, and found much more success. His stuff is electric, though he doesn't always know exactly where the ball is going. Still, especially after a solid AFL showing, it was time to protect Varvaro. It wouldn't be shocking if he plays with the M's at some point this season either.
• Ezequiel Carrera, OF - As if the Putz deal didn't look bad enough for the Mets already, Carrera exploded in AA for the M's in 2009. He doesn't have power, but he makes consistent contact, has a great eye at the plate, and uses his speed for all it is worth. He has the skillset of a prototypical leadoff hitter, and will be in AAA in 2010.

In the process, the M's exposed three players to waivers. Josh Wilson was outrighted to AAA, so the Mariners held on to him. However, they lost RHP Chris Jakubauskas to the Pirates, and RHP Robert Manuel to the Red Sox. Jakubauskas was the surprise of last year's spring training, and carved out a spot in long relief for most of 2009. He had a long road to the majors, which certainly showed with how much he enjoyed his time with the Mariners. For all those personal reasons, I am sorry to see him leave.

Manuel never appeared in a game for the Mariners. He was the player acquired in the Wladimir Balentien trade. In the end, he was a Mariner barely long enough to say hi before we say bye.

Ultimately, Jakubauskas and Manuel are the definition of replaceable relievers. Every team can use a few of them, but they are not highly difficult to find. I would much rather have guys like Varvaro, Ramirez, and Cortes protected, because there are good reasons to think that they will be above replacement level once they develop. Holding on to replacement level players for dear life was part of what got Bavasi in trouble as a GM. It destroyed roster flexibility for no good reason.

All the moves leave the Mariners with 37 players on their 40-man roster. That number does not include free agents like Russell Branyan, Adrian Beltre, and Erik Bedard. Obviously, additions will be made, so the space is needed. Still, since I didn't have to give up Manuel and Jakubauskas yet, I probably would have kept them. On the flip side though, if it was certain that they were going to leave, it is nicer for their futures to let them move on as early as possible.

Now, despite all those transactions, the biggest news of the weekend regards Dustin Ackley. The Mariners are going to have him work out at second base in January. For now it is an experiment, but I think it is an experiment that Seattle really hopes works out.

The Mariners have a logjam in the outfield. Franklin Gutierrez and Ichiro are not going anywhere anytime soon. Michael Saunders may be the opening day left fielder, and his future seems to be pretty bright. Ezequiel Carrera and Tyson Gillies both are promising top-of-the-order bats. Joe Dunigan performed fairly well in the AFL after a breakout 2009 campaign, so he can't be ignored either. It is hard to think that nobody out of that bunch of youngsters pans out.

The infield, however, is a different story. Matt Tuiasosopo is close to ready, but most do not see him sticking at second base long-term, if he ever plays there regularly. Carlos Triunfel lost a year with the broken leg, and he also does not appear to be a second baseman long-term. As of now, the M's best second base prospect might be Kyle Seager, Ackley's UNC teammate and fellow 2009 draftee.

If Ackley can play at second base, his bat would become even more valuable. There are not many good hitting second baseman, and even fewer of them defend well. Ackley, with his athleticism, baseball acumen, and work ethic, has a good chance to be the complete package at second.

I am excited that the Mariners are going to work Ackley out at second base. It makes some sense with where the roster is at right now. It further paves the way for Jose Lopez to get traded, or move to third base. Either move makes more sense than keeping him at second base.

This team continues to find ways to get better. It is either a sign of progress, or of complete ineptitude, when a guy who pitched as much as Jakubauskas is let go for nothing. In this case, it is progress. Two years ago, the M's were cutting players loose like Richie Sexson and Jose Vidro. Now, teams want the M's scraps. This roster still has a long way to go, but it has also come a long way.

Yuni to the Royals

Last night, an "organizational decision" was made to pull Yuniesky Betancourt from the game in Tacoma. In other words, the move wasn't injury-related, meaning Yuni had been traded but the M's couldn't say that officially yet. The move that seemed imminent last night was finally announced. Now, officially, Yuni is going to the Kansas City Royals for pitching prospects Dan Cortes and Derrick Saito.

Betancourt is a known commodity, and a frustrating one at that. He has talent, and perhaps a change of scenery will do him good. It was so aggravating watching him get worse and worse each year, both at the plate and in the field, even though he is still just 27 years old. While Yuni and Don Wakamatsu did not butt heads, Betancourt seemed oblivious to Don's constant prods to be more patient at the plate, and focus more on the field. It looked like the coaching staff may have been breaking through right before Yuni got injured, but it is hard to tell. Regardless, he is not a big loss for the Mariners. Even if Ronny Cedeno bats .150 the rest of the year, he has better patience at the plate than Betancourt (which isn't saying much at all, but still is true), a little more power, and much better defense. Personally, I think Cedeno will improve at the plate with more playing time; it's just a question of how much. The bottom line is that the M's are better off with Cedeno playing every day anyway.

Now, on to who the M's acquired. Derrick Saito is a diminutive 21-year-old southpaw, listed at just 5'9" and 155 pounds. He is in his first full season of professional baseball, and at first glance it is an unimpressive one. In low-A he has a 2-6 record and 4.15 ERA coming out of the bullpen. However, Saito is the victim of some bad luck. In 52 innings, he has allowed 50 hits and 4 home runs, while walking 15 and striking out 53. All those numbers are darn good. A lefty that can come out of the bullpen and strikeout lefties and righties, while also keep the ball in the yard, has some value.

The big catch in the trade though is Dan Cortes. He is 22 years old, and repeating AA. Why he needs to repeat AA is beyond me, because he was the Royals 2008 minor league pitcher of the year, and rated their top pitching prospect coming into this season, with the best fastball and curveball of all of Kansas City's prospective hurlers. His strikeouts are down considerably this year, but so are his home runs, and he is getting more ground balls too. Ultimately, his ERA is about the same, so judging from his numbers it looks like he is trying to pitch to contact more this season, and it is working. At 6'6", 215 pounds, Cortes has a great frame for pitching, and his classic fastball-curveball combo plays well at any level. Perhaps his value has sunk with the lower strikeout rate and a lack of clear progress despite repeating AA - but still, the Mariners got this guy AND another pitching prospect for Yuni Betancourt.

Jack Z is a magician. Betancourt shouldn't have netted this caliber of pitching talent. Of course, the only reason the M's could even consider dealing Yuni is because they have acquired Ronny Cedeno, Josh Wilson, and Chris Woodward for practically nothing over the course of the past six months. Say what you want about the trio's shortcomings, but the M's had Betancourt, Miguel Cairo, and Tug Hulett last year, and that was it. I would have played Hulett over Betancourt, but the point is that the M's have three guys as good or better than Yuni right now instead of just one.

Then again, Jack Z probably is not done. Pittsburgh scouts are in Seattle right now, and both Freddy Sanchez and Jack Wilson make a whole bunch of sense for the M's. Still, the Betancourt deal can stand on its own. The team right now was not going to be any better with Yuni's return, and the future just got brighter with Cortes and Saito added to the minor league system.

Kansas City has kept Tony Pena (a less powerful, even more aggressive version of Yuni) on the roster all year, so I can see why they would be willing to take a chance on Betancourt. I don't understand why they think so much of him to give up as much as they did, but I'm not going to ask questions. I've watched the M's pull the trigger on deals like Asdrubal Cabrera for Eduardo Perez in the past, and I've kept telling myself that some day a GM would come to Seattle and pull a similar deal in the M's favor. Maybe this is the trade (or maybe it has already happened with how great Gutierrez looks), but I am sure that Jack Z is the man that will make it happen with deals like this one.