Putz Traded in Megadeal

Jack Zduriencik made his first trade as the M's GM, and it is a big three-team one between the M's, Mets, and Indians. Here are the details:

Mariners Get: 1B Mike Carp (from NYM), OF Franklin Gutierrez (from CLE), OF Endy Chavez (from NYM), OF Ezequiel Carrera (from NYM), RHP Aaron Heilman (from NYM), LHP Jason Vargas (from NYM), and RHP Mikael Clato (from NYM)

Mariners Trade: 2B Luis Valbuena (to CLE), OF Jeremy Reed (to NYM), RHP J.J. Putz (to NYM), and RHP Sean Green (to NYM)

Indians Get: 2B Luis Valbuena (from SEA) and RHP Joe Smith (from NYM)

Indians Trade: OF Franklin Gutierrez (to SEA)

Mets Get: OF Jeremy Reed (from SEA), RHP Sean Green (from SEA), RHP J.J. Putz (from SEA)

Mets Trade: 1B Mike Carp (to SEA), OF Endy Chavez (to SEA), OF Ezequiel Carrera (to SEA), RHP Aaron Heilman (to SEA), RHP Joe Smith (to SEA), LHP Jason Vargas (to SEA), RHP Mikael Clato (to SEA)

This is a big deal with lots of players switching addresses. Pretty clearly, it was mainly a deal between the Mets and Mariners, and the Indians became involved to finish the deal. So, I'll start with the Indians.

Why the Indians did the deal:
Cleveland is looking to bolster their bullpen after it took a major step backwards last year. They are finalizing a deal for Kerry Wood to be their closer (pending a physical, which definitely could derail the deal with Wood's injury history), and now they have Joe Smith to be another late-inning guy. Additionally, Smith is young, so he is under team control at a cheap price for several years. Valbuena is attractive to the Indians because it's looking more like Jhonny Peralta will move to third base in the near future, and Asdrubal Cabrera will take over shortstop. Since Josh Barfield has fallen off the map, Valbuena becomes the second baseman when he is ready. Franklin Gutierrez was a natural piece to trade since Matt LaPorta is close to ready to take over an everyday outfield spot, and the Indians already have Grady Sizemore, Shin-Soo Choo, and Ben Francisco. This is an all-around solid deal for Cleveland that makes a great deal of sense.

Why the Mets did the deal:
Clearly, their top priority this offseason was upgrading their bullpen. They signed K-Rod, and now they traded for Putz. He is the centerpiece of this entire deal, and it's clear that the Mets were willing to give up quite a bit to get him. They did protect some of their more highly touted prospects, but they gave up a bunch of solid players. Still, now they've got J.J. and K-Rod, and that's what made them say yes to this trade. As an added bonus/key component of the deal, Aaron Heilman is gone.

Why the Mariners did the deal:
The M's have lots of needs, and virtually all of them were addressed. Mike Carp is a possible long-term answer at first base. Franklin Gutierrez and Endy Chavez will both help out in the outfield. A couple young prospects are in the trade, and a couple players that might make the pitching staff too. Sometimes trading one great player to plug a bunch of holes is worth it, and Zduriencik feels that is the case with this trade.

How the deal developed:
Looking at the players involved, I feel it is pretty clear how this trade developed. I'm certainly not privy to any of the conversations that actually happened, but if I am right, we just learned a bunch about the new-look Mariners front office. Here is what I think happened. Much of this comes from Geoff Baker's Mariners blog for the Seattle Times.

1. Omar Minaya came to Jack Zduriencik to ask about J.J. Putz once he had officially signed Francisco Rodriguez. Jack says he needs an outfielder (perhaps preferably one with defense) in return. Minaya offers Aaron Heilman (since he wants to get rid of him) and Mike Carp. The M's are intrigued by the package, but say that it is not enough. They really need an outfielder.
2. Minaya goes to Mark Shapiro and asks about Franklin Gutierrez. He says it will take a young reliever and middle-infielder. Minaya offers Joe Smith and goes back to the M's to see if they are willing to give up a middle-infielder, as well as replace Joe Smith.
3. As luck would have it, the Mariners have Luis Valbuena and Sean Green, and they will trade both. Additionally, they like Endy Chavez, and are willing to part ways with Jeremy Reed to get him. For the M's troubles, the Mets include some additional prospects.

Like I said this is part rumors and part speculation, so it could be completely wrong. It makes some sense though, and if it is true, I am excited about Zduriencik even more. Neither Gutierrez nor Chavez provide much offense at all, but those two teamed with Ichiro are an insanely good outfield defensively. That will help the entire pitching staff more than any pitching acquisition, particularly "fly ball specialist" Jarrod Washburn. The upgrade those two provide defensively will go a very long way towards replacing Raul's production, since he was an awful defender. As an added bonus, the better numbers posted by Washburn and others may make a bunch of pitchers on the staff more attractive trade chips. This is the kind of creativity that I never saw out of Bill Bavasi.

Jack Zduriencik showed so much in this trade. He addressed so much in this one deal. I did not even touch on the talent he added to the farm system, particularly in Mike Carp. He doesn't look like a superstar in the making, but he's the young first base prospect that was never drafted under Bavasi. The 25-man roster is better today too, thanks to the killer defensive outfield the M's all of sudden have. Plus, Jack freed up some payroll. This is vision. This is creativity. This is having an encompossing organization-wide plan.

There are some concerns with the deal. First of all, it is hard to see J.J. Putz leave. Second, Aaron Heilman has no business being a starter, but he wants to be one, and he may get to be one. If Morrow is forced into the bullpen as a result, I will be quite disappointed. Still, the positives can't be ignored. Jack Zduriencik is fixing the Mariners.

Opening Day 2008 Observations

The last three weeks or so have kept me quite busy, and as a result Opening Day snuck up on me more than usual this year. In fact, other commitments kept me from seeing the first four innings of the game, but by the time I was able to sit down and watch I was psyched out of my mind. Opening Day is a glorious day, and it quickly went from great to greater as the Mariners pulled out a 5-2 win over the Rangers. It was a beautiful game to start the season with, and many interesting things happened. Here are the things I took particular note of throughout the game:

• Erik Bedard was not dominant, but he pitched better than in any of his spring starts. I would have liked more than five innings and less than four walks out of him, but all things considered, he kept the M's in the game and put in a solid effort. I will take it.
• We got a glimpse of the McLaren way of doing things when Jose hit the weak dribbler out towards second base that turned into a hit because Ian Kinsler was covering second base on the hit and run. Generally I am not that big of a fan of putting the game in motion, but with this team it might be a good idea. Most of the guys on this team are not that patient, but they are good at making contact. Putting the game in motion would not really limit their plate discipline because there is not much discipline to start with, and it may make their ability to hit for contact a bigger weapon.
• Between the aforementioned hit-and-run dribbler and a clutch two out double, batting Jose Lopez second looked like a smart move for at least one day. I question batting Jose second, but his skill set should translate pretty well in the two hole, especially with the way McLaren wants the Mariners to play baseball this year. Even when struggling, Lopez has consistently been able to make contact, and somehow driven in more runs than he really should have looking at the rest of his numbers. It is fair to argue that both the dribbler and the double were lucky hits thanks to the defensive alignment, but I think that double would have gotten through even with the infield back, and the dribbler was mostly a product of Lopez doing his job and hitting the pitch to the right side.
• The Mariners lineup drew seven walks, though frankly it was against a Texas pitching staff that is not expected to be real good. Still, it was seven walks, and at least this lineup might have enough patience to let erratic pitchers hang themselves. There have been times over the past couple years where I was not convinced this team would even allow that because they have been so aggressive.
• There is no doubt the M's got some huge breaks from critical mistakes by the Rangers, and the mistakes were what allowed the M's to break through. Obviously, the Mariners cannot win every game by waiting for the other team to screw up, but good teams take advantage of mistakes and that is precisely what the Mariners did.
• I was impressed with what I saw out of the bullpen. Sean Green came in and looked as nasty as he did at the end of last year. Mark Lowe only faced one batter, but his velocity was up and his command looked decent despite all the excitement he must have been feeling. Eric O'Flaherty also looked really impressive, with a breaking ball that if anything is better than the one he had last year. He looks poised and ready to handle the role Sherrill filled last year. Though O'Flaherty did give up a run thanks to a grounder that found a hole, that made things perfect, because it allowed J.J. to come in and pick up the save on Opening Day.

Between seeing Bedard on the mound in the home white on Opening Day, and O'Flaherty coming in where Sherrill used to, the trade finally hit home for me. Something about Opening Day finally made it a reality for me that this team is about winning now, and it got me that much more excited. I have my concerns with this team and the trade, but it is great to be watching a team with a win now mentality, and if every game goes something like Opening Day did, this is going to be a great season.

Mariners Bullpen Far From Finalized

The one place the Mariners actually have some legitimate spring training competition is in the bullpen. As much as the Bedard trade impacted the M's starting rotation, its effects are prominent in the bullpen too, thanks to the departure of George Sherrill (86/84) and "return" of Brandon Morrow (75/81). Here is how the bullpen is shaping up as of now:

LOCKS TO MAKE THE OPENING DAY BULLPEN

• J.J. Putz (89/87) - He is one of the best closers in baseball, and there is no way anybody is taking away his job, no matter how he or others perform.
• Brandon Morrow (75/81) - Morrow went to Venezuela as a starter to prepare for a likely job in the rotation, but the acquisitions of Carlos Silva (75/74) and Erik Bedard (96/94) changed things. He will be back as the right-handed setup man, the same role he worked his way into last year.
• Sean Green (73/72) - Green was a bit of an unsung hero for the Mariners last year, but his breakout performance did not go unnoticed by McLaren and the front office. He will man primarily the seventh inning, as he did by the end of last year.

Depending on the number of position players the Mariners keep, that leaves either three or four spots in the bullpen yet to be determined. Here are the prime contenders for the remaining spots:

LEFT-HANDERS

• Eric O'Flaherty (78/83) - Though Sean Green was a pleasant surprise, the real unsung hero for me from last year's bullpen was O'Flaherty. He is a better left-hander than he gets credit for, even from the Mariners. For me, he would be a lock to make the bullpen, but that does not seem to be the case with the Mariners. He should take over Sherrill's role the last couple years, and even though he is not a lock, he is still the clear front-runner.
• Cesar Jimenez (60/72) - Jimenez missed a bunch of time last year due to injury, but showed some promise in Tacoma in his 16 appearances. He is healthy again, and the Mariners like him enough to give him a chance to compete with O'Flaherty for the lefty specialist job. Cesar has a very nice change-up, and it is the main reason the M's see him as a viable option this year. If I were in charge he would be ticketed for Tacoma, both because I think he still has a little room to grow before being a good bullpen option, and also because I think highly of O'Flaherty.
• Horacio Ramirez (55/55) - There is no spot for Ho-Ram in the rotation, but he's still making over $2 million a year, so it is hard to believe the M's will have no qualms sending him down to Tacoma to start the season. That is where he should be, but at this point he seems to be a leading candidate for long relief.
• Ryan Rowland-Smith (73/79) - I cannot tell what the Mariners are thinking with Rowland-Smith. Along with Morrow, Ryan was stretched over the winter to become a potential starter, though he was a long shot to make the rotation even before the Bedard trade. The M's seem quite enamored with Jimenez, and may opt to keep him and O'Flaherty, and send Rowland-Smith to Tacoma and let him develop as a starter. They may also decide to keep Ho-Ram around as a long reliever, which would also squeeze Ryan out of the picture. To me it is obvious that O'Flaherty and Rowland-Smith should be the two bullpen lefties though.

RIGHT-HANDERS

• Chris Reitsma (50/50) - Listening to McLaren talk about Reitsma, one of the bullpen slots may be his to lose. Chris has been a solid major league pitcher for a long time, but really fell off the table last year thanks to several arm injuries. He is healthy again, and according to the M's coaching staff he has looked impressive. If he returns to form, he would be a valuable pitcher to have. He is a non-roster invitee, so a spot on the 40-man roster would have to be cleared for him.
• Mark Lowe (68/87) - Lowe's rating in my system is based off of his 2006 numbers, because he did not play much in 2007 thanks to a very serious arm injury. Lowe throws hard and has good mound presence, but he still looks a little rusty to me. If the M's can afford to (and they can), it would be best to let him get back in the groove of professional baseball in AAA.
• R.A. Dickey (64/67) - The Rule 5 selection and knuckleball specialist does not have as good of a chance to make the roster now that Erik Bedard is in town, but he still has a chance. Thanks to the low strain a knuckleball puts on the body, he could pitch multiple innings on consecutive days, making him an intriguing option as a long reliever. His first couple spring outings were rather rocky, but his most recent was quite good.

OTHERS WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE

• Ryan Feierabend (57/72) - The M's are giving him a bit of a look as a left-handed reliever. He may be a solid option, but there are at least three better options for that role in O'Flaherty, Rowland-Smtih, and Jimenez. He should continue to develop as a starter in AAA.
• Jake Woods (51/59) - Also a lefty, but he simply is not as good as other ones in camp. He is off to a hot start this spring, and if he stays hot he may stick around and be considered a little more seriously.
• Cha Seung Baek (73/73) - Baek was going to get a look as a potential starting candidate until the Bedard trade, so now he is an option for long relief. However, I think there are too many pitchers in front of him the M's prefer for him to have a realistic chance.
• Sean White (65/65) - White was a Rule 5 selection last year, but did not play much thanks to an injury. Like Baek, I think there are too many guys the M's prefer in front of him. He was stretched out as a starter in the winter, and he may get a chance to continue to start in Tacoma.
• Jon Huber (53/62) - Huber turned heads when he posted a 1.08 ERA in 16 appearances with the M's in 2006, but really struggled in 2007. He'll likely have to bounce back in Tacoma before the Mariners strongly consider him again.

As of now, here is who I think the Mariners will carry in their bullpen:

• R.A. Dickey
• Horacio Ramirez
• Chris Reitsma
• Sean Green
• Eric O'Flaherty
• Brandon Morrow
• J.J. Putz

R.A. Dickey is the one I'm least confident on by far. I could see the M's going with Jimenez or Rowland-Smith instead, or deciding to go with only a six-man bullpen. Here is who I would keep in the bullpen:

• R.A. Dickey
• Ryan Rowland-Smith
• Sean Green
• Eric O'Flaherty
• Brandon Morrow
• J.J. Putz

Between more effective starters and Dickey, who can pitch multiple innings any given night, I think the bullpen would be just fine with only six members. Also, if the M's only carry a six-man bullpen, it will make it easier to keep INF Mike Morse (69/75), who is out of minor league options. As long as O'Flaherty takes over for Sherrill, I do not think there is much the Mariners can do to really irk me with their bullpen selections.