Fixing the Mariners

Now that Lee Pelekoudas is taking over, the Mariners are clearly looking towards 2009. The team is already off to a good start with the news that Wladimir Balentien has been sent down and Jeff Clement called back up. Balentien needs to play every day, and hopefully he can get some confidence back with regular playing time in AAA. As for Clement, I expect him to show he is much better than what we saw in his first stint. He should assert himself as one of the best hitters in this lineup in little time. Bringing Clement back up was the obvious move that needed to be made, but here are some out things I would do to start turning things around:

• Send Brandon Morrow down to Tacoma (with a purpose) and recall Eric O'Flaherty - It is time to stretch out Morrow and try him as a starter. If this team were in contention it would be a dumb move, but this is one of the only times it pays to be out of the race. There is no need to pull off a Joba Chamberlain here. Morrow has all the time he needs to stretch out in AAA, and when he is ready to go, I put him in the M's rotation for the rest of the year. I am not convinced that O'Flaherty has his command back, but if he is that bad he can be sent back down once Putz comes off the DL. With Morrow in the minors, I would insert Miguel Batista as the closer until J.J. is back. There is a purpose behind picking him over what would seem to be the more logical option at this point, Mark Lowe. I would also make it clear to Jarrod Washburn that if he does not start pitching better, his rotation spot will go to Morrow. Otherwise, R.A. Dickey goes back to long relief.
• Place Jose Vidro, Kenji Johjima, Richie Sexson, Jarrod Washburn, Miguel Batista, and Carlos Silva on waivers - It is time to start assessing the market value of veterans on this team, especially the ones with significant contracts. Placing a player on waivers is not a real public thing, and there also is no commitment. If a team claims a player on waivers, one of three things could happen: 1) The Mariners could pull the player back off of waivers and keep him. 2) The Mariners could let the player go to the team that claimed him and get nothing in return. This sounds like a raw deal, but that also means the other team takes on all of the player's remaining salary. 3) The Mariners and the team that claimed him can work out a trade. I would cross my fingers and hope that Johjima and Batista are claimed in particular. Both of them could be replaced internally quite easily, and getting rid of their 2009 salaries would clear $16 million in payroll. More than anything though, I would be using the waiver wire as a cheap, quick way to assess the market value of the players I am most willing to trade. If a team is willing to claim one of these players, they may be willing to give up a worthwhile prospect to acquire him, especially if the Mariners pay some of the salary.
• If a team claims Vidro, work out a trade. If Vidro clears waivers, release him - There is absolutely no point in keeping Vidro around. With Jeff Clement back up, Vidro will see very little action the remainder of the year, and he is not part of the answer in 2009. I would expect him to clear waivers, and if he does, cutting him would give the Mariners another spot to play with on the 40-man roster. If some team does claim him, I would be willing to pay his whole salary to maximize whatever talent the team could get in return.
• Make it clear no veteran on the team is off-limits - I would entertain trade offers for any veteran on this team (including Ichiro), though I would not actively shop many of them. Still, I would be looking to maximize the number of trade offers at this point. Sometimes certain teams become enamored with certain players, and I would not want to stand in the way of that team offering a lop-sided deal.

That would take care of things up to the All-Star Break. Here is what I would do around the trade deadline:

• Actively try to trade Miguel Batista - There simply is not a place for Batista in my plan, thanks in large part to his poor performance, rather substantial contract, and availability of several cheaper arms in the system that could replace him (Morrow and Ryan Feierabend in particular come to mind). I think a market for Batista could be created by advertising him as the ultimate insurance policy. He can start, do long relief, short relief, or even be an emergency closer. He has experience in all the roles. Letting scouts watch Batista close is the reason that I would choose him to finish ballgames over Mark Lowe while Putz is on the DL. Since he still has good velocity, I think a team would take a chance on him around the trade deadline. If another team will take his whole salary, I would be tempted to give him away for nothing. More realistically, the M's will have to eat some of his salary, but it would be worth it. If Batista can't be traded, I hold on to him.
• Actively try to trade Richie Sexson - Unlike most, I would not cut Sexson immediately because I do not see anyone in the minors that is clearly better than him. However, at the same time, Richie clearly is not the answer moving forward either. It seems that some teams have shown tepid interest over the past couple years in him, and I would let it be known that I would pay his entire remaining salary to maximize interest. The Mariners were planning on paying him anyway, and it would make Richie much more attractive if he were free. Perhaps the Indians, Mets, or Rangers would give up a borderline prospect to try to revive Sexson for a few months, especially if it was at no financial cost. If Richie is traded, I would call up either Balentien or Bryan LaHair to take his place on the roster, whichever is performing better in Tacoma. Whoever is called up would play everyday. LaHair could directly take over at first, and Ibanez could be slid over to first to make room for Balentien in the outfield. If Richie cannot be traded before the deadline, I would release him and still call up either Balentien or LaHair.
• Trade Miguel Cairo and/or Willie Bloomquist - There will likely be a market for both players (especially in the NL), and there is no huge reason to keep either of them. They won't garner anything in return, and frankly I would prefer additional flexibility with the 40-man roster for September call-ups anyway. The first person I would call up to replace one of them is Bryan LaHair, if he is not already up. The next two in line would be Oswaldo Navarro and Tug Hulett, though Hulett's contract would have to be purchased.
• Hope for a lop-sided trade in the M's favor, and accept it if it comes - Wouldn't it be awesome to be on the other side of a Derek Lowe and Jason Varitek for Heathcliff Slocumb deal? Expecting something so gratuitous would be irresponsible, but maximizing slim odds cannot hurt. That is the idea behind exploring trades with all veterans, and adding flexibility on the 40-man roster by trading players like Miguel Cairo and Willie Bloomquist.

Once the dust settles after July 31, the next wave of roster moves would come with September call-ups. I would place Tug Hulett and Chris Jakubauskas on the 40-man roster if they are not already, and add Matt Tuiasosopo as well. All of them would come up in September, along with Ryan Feierabend. Tui is not having a sensational season in AAA, but adding him in September would hopefully add a little intrigue to the team for fans. It also would allow the M's to rest Adrian Beltre with his torn hand ligament, or maybe even shut him down for the remainder of the season altogether.

This season is not going to get any prettier, but the Mariners can get a head start on 2009. With Sexson and Vidro coming off the books after this season, the team already will have financial flexibility heading into the off-season. Freeing up spots on the 40-man roster by trading guys like Bloomquist and Cairo will add roster flexibility too. Flexibility is key in times of change, and the Mariners can add quite a bit while not making the team much (if any) worse this year and taking a look at some younger guys that could play important roles in 2009.

Opening Day 2008 Observations

The last three weeks or so have kept me quite busy, and as a result Opening Day snuck up on me more than usual this year. In fact, other commitments kept me from seeing the first four innings of the game, but by the time I was able to sit down and watch I was psyched out of my mind. Opening Day is a glorious day, and it quickly went from great to greater as the Mariners pulled out a 5-2 win over the Rangers. It was a beautiful game to start the season with, and many interesting things happened. Here are the things I took particular note of throughout the game:

• Erik Bedard was not dominant, but he pitched better than in any of his spring starts. I would have liked more than five innings and less than four walks out of him, but all things considered, he kept the M's in the game and put in a solid effort. I will take it.
• We got a glimpse of the McLaren way of doing things when Jose hit the weak dribbler out towards second base that turned into a hit because Ian Kinsler was covering second base on the hit and run. Generally I am not that big of a fan of putting the game in motion, but with this team it might be a good idea. Most of the guys on this team are not that patient, but they are good at making contact. Putting the game in motion would not really limit their plate discipline because there is not much discipline to start with, and it may make their ability to hit for contact a bigger weapon.
• Between the aforementioned hit-and-run dribbler and a clutch two out double, batting Jose Lopez second looked like a smart move for at least one day. I question batting Jose second, but his skill set should translate pretty well in the two hole, especially with the way McLaren wants the Mariners to play baseball this year. Even when struggling, Lopez has consistently been able to make contact, and somehow driven in more runs than he really should have looking at the rest of his numbers. It is fair to argue that both the dribbler and the double were lucky hits thanks to the defensive alignment, but I think that double would have gotten through even with the infield back, and the dribbler was mostly a product of Lopez doing his job and hitting the pitch to the right side.
• The Mariners lineup drew seven walks, though frankly it was against a Texas pitching staff that is not expected to be real good. Still, it was seven walks, and at least this lineup might have enough patience to let erratic pitchers hang themselves. There have been times over the past couple years where I was not convinced this team would even allow that because they have been so aggressive.
• There is no doubt the M's got some huge breaks from critical mistakes by the Rangers, and the mistakes were what allowed the M's to break through. Obviously, the Mariners cannot win every game by waiting for the other team to screw up, but good teams take advantage of mistakes and that is precisely what the Mariners did.
• I was impressed with what I saw out of the bullpen. Sean Green came in and looked as nasty as he did at the end of last year. Mark Lowe only faced one batter, but his velocity was up and his command looked decent despite all the excitement he must have been feeling. Eric O'Flaherty also looked really impressive, with a breaking ball that if anything is better than the one he had last year. He looks poised and ready to handle the role Sherrill filled last year. Though O'Flaherty did give up a run thanks to a grounder that found a hole, that made things perfect, because it allowed J.J. to come in and pick up the save on Opening Day.

Between seeing Bedard on the mound in the home white on Opening Day, and O'Flaherty coming in where Sherrill used to, the trade finally hit home for me. Something about Opening Day finally made it a reality for me that this team is about winning now, and it got me that much more excited. I have my concerns with this team and the trade, but it is great to be watching a team with a win now mentality, and if every game goes something like Opening Day did, this is going to be a great season.

Mariners Bullpen Far From Finalized

The one place the Mariners actually have some legitimate spring training competition is in the bullpen. As much as the Bedard trade impacted the M's starting rotation, its effects are prominent in the bullpen too, thanks to the departure of George Sherrill (86/84) and "return" of Brandon Morrow (75/81). Here is how the bullpen is shaping up as of now:

LOCKS TO MAKE THE OPENING DAY BULLPEN

• J.J. Putz (89/87) - He is one of the best closers in baseball, and there is no way anybody is taking away his job, no matter how he or others perform.
• Brandon Morrow (75/81) - Morrow went to Venezuela as a starter to prepare for a likely job in the rotation, but the acquisitions of Carlos Silva (75/74) and Erik Bedard (96/94) changed things. He will be back as the right-handed setup man, the same role he worked his way into last year.
• Sean Green (73/72) - Green was a bit of an unsung hero for the Mariners last year, but his breakout performance did not go unnoticed by McLaren and the front office. He will man primarily the seventh inning, as he did by the end of last year.

Depending on the number of position players the Mariners keep, that leaves either three or four spots in the bullpen yet to be determined. Here are the prime contenders for the remaining spots:

LEFT-HANDERS

• Eric O'Flaherty (78/83) - Though Sean Green was a pleasant surprise, the real unsung hero for me from last year's bullpen was O'Flaherty. He is a better left-hander than he gets credit for, even from the Mariners. For me, he would be a lock to make the bullpen, but that does not seem to be the case with the Mariners. He should take over Sherrill's role the last couple years, and even though he is not a lock, he is still the clear front-runner.
• Cesar Jimenez (60/72) - Jimenez missed a bunch of time last year due to injury, but showed some promise in Tacoma in his 16 appearances. He is healthy again, and the Mariners like him enough to give him a chance to compete with O'Flaherty for the lefty specialist job. Cesar has a very nice change-up, and it is the main reason the M's see him as a viable option this year. If I were in charge he would be ticketed for Tacoma, both because I think he still has a little room to grow before being a good bullpen option, and also because I think highly of O'Flaherty.
• Horacio Ramirez (55/55) - There is no spot for Ho-Ram in the rotation, but he's still making over $2 million a year, so it is hard to believe the M's will have no qualms sending him down to Tacoma to start the season. That is where he should be, but at this point he seems to be a leading candidate for long relief.
• Ryan Rowland-Smith (73/79) - I cannot tell what the Mariners are thinking with Rowland-Smith. Along with Morrow, Ryan was stretched over the winter to become a potential starter, though he was a long shot to make the rotation even before the Bedard trade. The M's seem quite enamored with Jimenez, and may opt to keep him and O'Flaherty, and send Rowland-Smith to Tacoma and let him develop as a starter. They may also decide to keep Ho-Ram around as a long reliever, which would also squeeze Ryan out of the picture. To me it is obvious that O'Flaherty and Rowland-Smith should be the two bullpen lefties though.

RIGHT-HANDERS

• Chris Reitsma (50/50) - Listening to McLaren talk about Reitsma, one of the bullpen slots may be his to lose. Chris has been a solid major league pitcher for a long time, but really fell off the table last year thanks to several arm injuries. He is healthy again, and according to the M's coaching staff he has looked impressive. If he returns to form, he would be a valuable pitcher to have. He is a non-roster invitee, so a spot on the 40-man roster would have to be cleared for him.
• Mark Lowe (68/87) - Lowe's rating in my system is based off of his 2006 numbers, because he did not play much in 2007 thanks to a very serious arm injury. Lowe throws hard and has good mound presence, but he still looks a little rusty to me. If the M's can afford to (and they can), it would be best to let him get back in the groove of professional baseball in AAA.
• R.A. Dickey (64/67) - The Rule 5 selection and knuckleball specialist does not have as good of a chance to make the roster now that Erik Bedard is in town, but he still has a chance. Thanks to the low strain a knuckleball puts on the body, he could pitch multiple innings on consecutive days, making him an intriguing option as a long reliever. His first couple spring outings were rather rocky, but his most recent was quite good.

OTHERS WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE

• Ryan Feierabend (57/72) - The M's are giving him a bit of a look as a left-handed reliever. He may be a solid option, but there are at least three better options for that role in O'Flaherty, Rowland-Smtih, and Jimenez. He should continue to develop as a starter in AAA.
• Jake Woods (51/59) - Also a lefty, but he simply is not as good as other ones in camp. He is off to a hot start this spring, and if he stays hot he may stick around and be considered a little more seriously.
• Cha Seung Baek (73/73) - Baek was going to get a look as a potential starting candidate until the Bedard trade, so now he is an option for long relief. However, I think there are too many pitchers in front of him the M's prefer for him to have a realistic chance.
• Sean White (65/65) - White was a Rule 5 selection last year, but did not play much thanks to an injury. Like Baek, I think there are too many guys the M's prefer in front of him. He was stretched out as a starter in the winter, and he may get a chance to continue to start in Tacoma.
• Jon Huber (53/62) - Huber turned heads when he posted a 1.08 ERA in 16 appearances with the M's in 2006, but really struggled in 2007. He'll likely have to bounce back in Tacoma before the Mariners strongly consider him again.

As of now, here is who I think the Mariners will carry in their bullpen:

• R.A. Dickey
• Horacio Ramirez
• Chris Reitsma
• Sean Green
• Eric O'Flaherty
• Brandon Morrow
• J.J. Putz

R.A. Dickey is the one I'm least confident on by far. I could see the M's going with Jimenez or Rowland-Smith instead, or deciding to go with only a six-man bullpen. Here is who I would keep in the bullpen:

• R.A. Dickey
• Ryan Rowland-Smith
• Sean Green
• Eric O'Flaherty
• Brandon Morrow
• J.J. Putz

Between more effective starters and Dickey, who can pitch multiple innings any given night, I think the bullpen would be just fine with only six members. Also, if the M's only carry a six-man bullpen, it will make it easier to keep INF Mike Morse (69/75), who is out of minor league options. As long as O'Flaherty takes over for Sherrill, I do not think there is much the Mariners can do to really irk me with their bullpen selections.

Bedard Rumors Continue to Swirl

Rumors concerning the Mariners acquiring SP Erik Bedard (96/94) from the Orioles refuse to die. The latest I have seen is that the M's are willing to part ways with OF Adam Jones (73/85) and RP George Sherrill (86/83), but the Orioles want in addition to those two either SP Brandon Morrow (75/81) or SS Carlos Triunfel (43/85). Currently, it appears the Mariners would prefer to include Triunfel between the two.

Jones, Sherrill, and Triunfel is an awfully high price to pay for any player. Erik Bedard was incredible last year (the only pitcher better than him last year according to my formula was Jake Peavy), but what he is actually worth needs to be examined further. Looking at his numbers, he exploded last year, and I doubt he will ever have a better year despite the fact he is only 28 years old. In fact, I really do not think he will reach the 94 rating my rating system projects for him next year. That is not to say Bedard will not be a great pitcher in the future, but to expect him to duplicate his 2007 output for the next several seasons is intrepid, to put it nicely. Taking Bedard's last three seasons and plugging them into my rating formula (with a slight injury adjustment), his rating drops to 86, with an expected decay to 85. That means Bedard is still a great pitcher, but the difference between a 96 rating and an 86 is significant.

After taking a closer look at Bedard, I think offering Jones and Sherrill for him is a fair deal. Baltimore needs a center fielder, and Jones fits that need perfectly, especially because he could become the black superstar that connects with the Baltimore community, which the Orioles covet badly. Though the Orioles would not receive a starter to replace Bedard in the trade, they added depth in the off-season by acquiring SP Troy Patton (61/78) and Matt Albers (59/63) in the Tejada trade, both of whom the team considers rotation candidates (I'm not as sold on them, but all that matters is if Baltimore believes in them). If they really wanted a starter, I would be willing to offer either Carlos Silva (75/74), Miguel Batista (76/72), or Jarrod Washburn (74/72), and get any one of those contracts off the books while making room in the rotation for Morrow. I doubt the Orioles would be interested in one of those three though.

As for the Mariners, Bedard would team with Felix Hernandez (83/90) and the mediocre, but effective, trio of Batista, Silva , and Washburn to turn the starting rotation into a decent, if not borderline formidable, group. Furthermore, though Sherrill would be missed in the bullpen, the M's have still have two very good bullpen lefties in Eric O'Flaherty (78/83) and Ryan Rowland-Smith (73/77), and Morrow would be pitching in the later innings as well. Adam Jones would also be missed, but Wladimir Balentien (70/80) is not a bad option, and there have been rumors the Mariners would sign Luis Gonzalez (79/74) if they were to trade Jones. So, it is not as if there would be a giant void in the outfield if Jones were to be traded, making it reasonable to say the upgrade Bedard brings to the starting rotation more than counteracts the loss of Jones in the outfield.

Still, it looks like the Orioles are not interested in only acquiring Jones and Sherrill for Bedard, and I would not be willing to offer much more for that. I would be willing to include INF Mike Morse (69/75) because there is no longer room for him on the 25-man roster thanks to INF Miguel Cairo (70/68), and Baltimore would be smart to take a look at Morse because he could fill their hole at shortstop, but I doubt that would be enough either. Bedard would be a great addition to the Mariners, but Baltimore's asking price is just a little too steep.