Jesus Returns

The Mariners made three roster moves last night; of those three, two of the players called up got in the game (Danny Farquhar and Vidal Nuno). However, the player garnering the most attention is Jesus Montero.

Jesus Montero
(Wikimedia Commons, Keith Allison)

Officially the Mariners optioned J.A. Happ to make room for Jesus. In reality, Happ wasn't going to pitch again until after the All-Star break, so really the Mariners are just abusing the schedule to get an extra position player on the roster for this series against the Angels. I fully expect Montero to go back down to Tacoma in the near future.

However, Montero joins a Mariners offense that has sputtered for the vast majority of the year, and he is a AAA all-star slated to participate in the AAA home run derby. Montero also has the "fallen star" status, if you will - a guy everyone thought would hit, then didn't, then had a series of embarrassments last year ranging from reporting to camp way overweight to throwing an ice cream sandwich at a Mariners scout. Now, he's in the best shape of his tenuous Mariners career and slugging away in Tacoma. It's easy to see why Montero feels intriguing. Maybe put better it's easy to see why so many fans want to believe Montero will hit in the majors. It would complete a classic narrative - hot prospect, falls down on his luck, rededicates himself and surges to become what he was always supposed to be. Nothing changes and yet he is transformed from a boy to a man in the process.

That and dingers. Fans might also be happy because Jesus Montero would hit lots of dingers in this scenario.

Since I go to more Rainiers games than Mariners games, I have seen Jesus Montero play quite a bit the last season and a half. Come to think of it, I might have seen him play more than anyone else in the past year and a half. Here are some things you ought to know about Montero 2.0:

1. Don't be fooled by the triples. Montero is still slow. Inexplicably Montero has five triples this year. I saw his only triple at home in Cheney Stadium. It was a rocket out to deep left-center field, where the wall is 425 feet from home plate. I can't say for sure how the other triples have happened, because Cheney's center field is the most unforgiving in the PCL. I would imagine they were hard-hit balls over the outfielder's heads that kicked off walls away from defenders. So, though Montero's footspeed leaves much to be desired, the triples say something about Montero's hitting.
2. Montero has a new identity as a hitter. He came to Seattle with a well-earned reputation as a "pure" hitter with plus power because his line drives soared out of the ballpark. In particular, Montero got high marks for his opposite field power. That hitter disappeared in Seattle and was replaced with a fair number of weak groundouts thanks to an obsession for pulling the ball. Montero has played with his batting stance a fair amount, and midway through last season switched to a radically different open stance. It seems to have made a difference. This year, for the first time in his career, he is hitting more fly balls than ground balls, with a ground-out to air-out ratio of 0.77. For his minor league career, that ratio is 1.31, so this is noteworthy switch. Batted ball data like this tends to regress fairly quickly. That big of a gap suggests a different hitting profile. This is a switch which helps Montero take advantage of his best tool (power) while hiding his worst tool (speed). It might be the best reason to believe he will perform better in the majors now than before.
3. Montero swings at almost everything. Jesus Montero has struck out in 18% of his plate appearances this year, while walking in a shade under 6% of them. It is very easy to believe these numbers even after watching only a few Montero plate appearances in Tacoma. Pitch location and pitch type data isn't as readily accessible for minor league games, so I can't go much further with this analysis. The strikeout rate is high, but not so high to think that Montero will fail as a hitter in the majors given his power. However, that strikeout rate combined with the walk rate tells a more alarming story. I'm not convinced that MLB pitchers will have to throw Montero strikes to get him to swing. This is the biggest reason to believe Montero will struggle in the majors, and it's a mighty big one.

In the end, this is a medium-length post about almost nothing. I doubt Jesus Montero gets many at-bats before going back down to AAA. I also doubt that he's in a position to contribute any more than current Mariners. He is likely to strikeout a ton with a low average, low on-base percentage, and some home runs thrown in. Montero probably falls somewhere between Mark Trumbo and Mike Zunino as far as what we could expect from him if he played regularly.

I think Montero's promotion has more to do with symbolism and psychology. Montero could be out of baseball right now. Last season was that disastrous and it seemed fairly clear that the Mariners were down to their last straw with him. Montero buckled down and clearly worked hard in the offseason. He is also producing, albeit against AAA pitchers in a way that suggests MLB pitcher might take advantage of him. Still, Montero was slaying AAA pitching with some authority last year before his season completely fell off the rails. This promotion back to the bigs has to feel like a real sign of his hard work paying off. Plus, who knows, maybe Edgar Martinez can convince Montero to work some on his plate discipline, which would go a long ways towards Montero developing into a viable option at first base.

Kendrys Returns

Kendrys Morales (wikimedia commons)

The Mariners made a trade today, acquiring Kendrys Morales from the Twins for Stephen Pryor. Morales, of course, played with the Mariners last year and then hung out in free agency forever since nobody wanted to sign him for big money and lose a draft pick, a scenario the Mariners forced when they extended Morales a qualifying offer.

I'm hoping there are some financial details yet to be reported in this trade, because without them, I don't like this deal.

Losing Stephen Pryor isn't a big deal at this point . The M's are flush with bullpen depth, and Pryor isn't the same since his major shoulder injury a couple years ago. He tops out around 94 or 95mph now and he used to flirt with triple digits. Pryor still has an MLB-caliber arm, and I hope he makes it back to the majors and sticks with someone for a while, but he is the exact type of player the M's should have been shopping around to take a chance on a hitter.

Where exactly will Kendrys Morales fit on this roster though? In 39 games he has been worth -0.9 WAR, and he is a limited defensive first basemen or DH at this point. He's essentially been a switch-hitting version of Corey Hart thus far, except worse.

What worries me most is the money involved though. Morales should make a little over $4 million the rest of the season. The Mariners may or may not have about $7-8 million of wiggle room, assuming they can use the money reserved for Corey Hart's performance bonuses. The Mariners just lost a bunch of their salary flexibility unless the Twins are picking up a bulk of Morales's salary (which could actually be happening but hasn't been reported; salary details often lag behind the news of players involved). I would be fine with that if Morales was an impact bat, but he isn't, or at least shouldn't be considered one.

The Mariners are gambling on Kendry's success last year and that his long free agency caused him to open up this season rusty. I could envision Kendry heating up and being a pleasant addition, but I'd like more than a low-upside gamble for half of the projected budget room the Mariners have. The Mariners could take a similar gamble to Morales by promoting Jesus Montero, except Montero would cost the Mariners absolutely nothing and might offer the M's more upside than Morales anyway.

I am struggling to see the value that Kendrys Morales adds which the Mariners didn't already have inside the organization. I suppose it is nice to see some move made as the offense sputter through July, but Kendrys is a highly unlikely savior.

The R Team

Jesus Montero (Wikimedia Commons)

The original name for this post was "Montero Musings," but after attending last night's 11-8 Rainiers victory I decided to expand the scope. I also considered a title involving the term "X-Factors" but decided that veered dangerously close to HOT SPORTS TAKE territory. However, The R Team wins if for no other reason than it makes me think of the A-Team theme song and intro.

On to the actual post now.

The Mariners find themselves in a legitimate pennant chase. They sport one of the better run differentials in baseball and have been in position for a wild card playoff spot for a while now. Their offense is borderline putrid but paired with an exquisite pitching staff, anchored by King Felix and Hisashi Iwakuma, and buoyed by the best bullpen in baseball.

In other words, the Mariners are a team built to acquire someone at the trade deadline. They are good enough as-is to potentially make the playoffs, but have obvious holes where they could upgrade. The focus will (and should) be on who they could acquire and who they would give up.

I want to go under the radar for a little bit here, and outline some of the more creative options at the Mariners disposal. I make it to more Rainiers games than Mariner ones, and there have been some interesting developments in Tacoma. So, instead of making random theoretical trades up, I'll highlight some unsung heroes that could make surprising contributions if given the chance:

Todd Coffey and/or Logan Kensing

I'll lead off with a  pair of non-roster bullpen arms. The Mariners bullpen is the best in baseball and it's only gotten better with the recent emergence of Brandon Maurer. Behind the MLB bullpen is a pretty formidable Tacoma unit too. Some of the names are known - Stephen Pryor and Lucas Luetge have spent a little time in the majors this year, and Carson Smith isn't too far behind them (if behind them at all.) However, Coffey and Kensing shouldn't get lost in the shuffle.

Both Coffey and Kensing are veterans that have tasted success in the majors. Kensing topped out at 95mph multiple times in last night's Rainiers game and also throws a slider in the mid to upper 80s. Coffey features similar repertoire, though his fastball tends to top out around 91mph. Still, he struck out the side in the ninth inning last night, which was his second inning of work in the ballgame.

In my humble opinion, the Mariners bullpen situation is the most interesting puzzle piece the M's have as the deadline approaches. They clearly have an embarrassment of riches right now. Guys that would work the 7th and 8th innings on many staffs take care of middle relief in Seattle. However, given the M's offensive woes, their bullpen faces more high leverage situations than most teams. Their phenomenal bullpen is arguably the biggest key to their current success. The M's bullpen has a special ability to make small leads stick simply because they are filthy good from top to bottom.

I would be curious to know what kind of internal scouting reports the Mariners have on Kensing and Coffey though. They look to me like serviceable middle relievers. They could make a guy like Tom Wilhelmsen or Yoervis Medina expendable. There would be the problem of creating 40-man roster space for either of them, but that seems simple to solve to me - make a two-for-one trade. Packaging Medina with a guy like Stefen Romero could be a sneaky valuable package to a rebuilding team, given that that both players are under team control for a combined nine more seasons before they could hit the open market, and both come with some MLB experience (successful MLB experience in Medina's case). The presence of Kensing and Coffey would make me extremely comfortable considering such a deal.

Jesus Montero

I was down on Montero at the start of the season, to say the least. I made jokes and complaints at his expense given any sort of slight opening. I still encourage friends at Rainiers game to watch him try to run the bases. I haven't been kind to Montero, and I will come clean right here, right now: I gave up on him.

I am somewhere between curious about Montero and a full-fledged believer in him again though. He is white-hot at the moment, batting a whopping .464 in July with 14 extra-base hits, good for a 1.327 OPS (not a typo, I promise). Of course, this is a small sample size, and TNT writer John McGrath pointed out that Montero has enjoyed a string of lefties as of late. Still... a 1.327 OPS?!!

Moreover, it appears to me that Montero's recent hot streak corresponds with an adjustment he made in his batting stance. He starts wide open now - reminiscent of Jay Buhner, to give you an idea of how wide open we are talking about here - but quickly closes. It's worth noting that Montero has more extra bases hits in July than he had in May and June combined, and equally comforting to me is where those extra base hits go. They are up the middle, from left-center to right-center. He's regaining the hitting profile that made him an elite prospect when the Mariners acquired him.

Montero has hit home runs in both the last two Rainiers games I've been to. One was a line drive that I thought would get down for a double in right center, but it just kept going. The ball was out over the plate in the lower half of the strike zone, and Montero went with it and crushed it. The other was a home run to left center. This pitch was more on the inner half of the plate but had a similar vibe - it was a bit more towering, but again, just kept going and easily cleared the fence.

The only player on the Mariners roster who might have more raw power than Jesus Montero is the man he would logically replace, Corey Hart. Hart, to date, has posted a -0.9 WAR. Coincidentally, the increasing likelihood that Hart won't reach any of the incentives in his deal is why the Mariners might have $7-8 million of room in their budget to take on a salary at the trade deadline.

I wonder what kind of internal scouting reports the Mariners have on Jesus Montero at this point. I would be very tempted to release Corey Hart, which should guarantee that he doesn't reach any of the incentives, and replace him with Jesus Montero. If the M's get lucky, Montero could do a decent impression of Evan Gattis at the plate, plus the M's could go acquire an impact player with the added salary room.

Ty Kelly

The Rainiers fielded an intriguing lineup defensively last night. Ty Kelly started in right field. Granted, the Rainiers are very thin on outfielders right now, and Kelly has been a bit of a utility player all season because Chris Taylor and Nick Franklin get the bulk of playing time in the middle infield, but the start still seemed intentional to me. Kelly has played some third base and Rainiers utility player Leury Bonilla started there last night. Bonilla is a true utility player, as I have seen him play first base, third base, right field, and pitch. In fact, he has multiple pitching appearances the past three seasons. Nick Franklin also has a handful of starts in right field this season too, but he was at Kelly's "natural" position last night, second base. So, Kelly didn't have to start in right field, but he did.

Moreover, Kelly looked good in right field, at least last night. He took clean, efficient routes to balls, including a soft fly ball he had to charge hard in front of him, and rather hard hit line drive he had to sprint back on to make a nice running catch. However, his best play of the game came on a single, where he gunned a runner out trying to go from first to third. Kelly flashed a surprising arm - maybe not prototypical right field strength, but way better than I expected from a guy who has played second base for the most part, and the throw was right on the bag.

At the plate Kelly is a switch hitter with remarkable patience. He has more walks than strikeouts right now, which if that holds would be the fourth consecutive season he's pulled the uncommon trick. Kelly also has already established a new career high in home runs this season with 13.

It is no secret that the Mariners could use some offense, and the corner outfield spots are particularly weak spots on the roster. Kelly isn't on the 40-man roster right now, but I am a fan of his skill set. A switch-hitter with plate discipline and defensive versatility makes for a really nice bench piece, and on the Mariners, maybe a better starting option than some guys in the majors right now. Similar to the situation with guys like Coffey and Kensing, the presence of Ty Kelly would make me pursue deals where I collect a handful of young guys on my 40-man roster right now to get a quality rental player. It's a strategy that protects top prospects while improving the ball club noticeably right now.

Who knows what moves the Mariners are actually pursuing, considering, or have available to them. However, if they want to get better now and hold on to their top prospects, they will need to get creative. What makes the most sense to me is to offer multiple fringe-like guys with MLB experience on the roster right now while eating a bunch of salary. This approach could work surprisingly well if the Mariners believe in some of their non-roster guys in Tacoma. I, for one, see reasons that the Mariners should believe in some of their overlooked depth.

Montero Down and Out

The inevitable finally happened. Jesus Montero got sent down to Tacoma to convert into a first baseman and designated hitter. Really, he's converting to anything but a catcher. Things might have turned out differently if Montero was hitting, but he wasn't, to say the least.

Fortnight Over

The silence has been deafening. We went a fortnight between posts at the Musings. There is activity behind the scenes. Free time has been sparse with my work schedule this month, and what free time I've had has been sunk into draft prep.

It's time for a post of some sort though. Let's talk about the state of the Mariners roster. The series against the Rockies and Rangers were largely awesome. The current series against the Angels has been a bust so far. This team is up and down, which is hard to watch at times, but I'll gladly take it over the down and really down we've dealt with the past couple seasons. Still, are there any major roster inefficiencies at this point? Here are my takes:

Progress Report: Hitters

Here's part two in my series of grading player performances based on their performances so far. If you want to read part one on the pitching staff, go here. I will note that these grades are mostly based on the players' hitting performance, rather than defense, or fashion sense.The rest of the grades are arbitrarily determined and whatever I felt like giving them. Enjoy!

The Somewhat Shocking Pineda Trade

Maybe this is finally the deal that convinces the national media that the Mariners will not trade Felix Hernandez.

Michael Pineda and Jose Campos are both gone, to the Yankees for Jesus Montero and Hector Noesi. The deal involves lots of young, talented blood, which makes it the kind of deal that stings for both teams.

The upside for the Yankees is clear. They already had offense, but coupled that with a shaky rotation. If Pineda has any sort of legitimate encore to his rookie campaign, the Yankees are in good shape to contend for a world championship. I wrote a post on Pineda back in May, when he was emerging as a force. I stand by my words I wrote back then.

Campos is a loss that could make the Mariners look bad. He's still young, and a young pitcher to boot, but he looks like he is going to be quite good. The Yankees might have just acquired a decade worth of talent in the front end of their rotation.

The Mariners definitely got some talent in return though.

Futures Game Players to Watch

All star festivities start before the all star break, with the futures game (this Sunday, 11 AM PDT). Baseball America selects some of baseball's finest prospects in their expert estimation from around the minors, and assembles them on one field in a United States versus the World format. Only two prospects can be picked from each farm system, so it is a virtual lock that every organization will be represented. Really, everyone is worth watching in this game. However, here are a few players I will be watching in particular:

WORLD ROSTER

Neftali Feliz, RHP, AAA, Rangers - Feliz is only 21 years old, and doing a fine job in AAA. Perhaps most impressive, he has allowed only 1 home run in 69.1 innings pitched. Neftali has flown through the Rangers system, and he may be in Texas impacting the AL West pennant race by the end of the year. He is a legitimate in-house option for them, and looking more long-term he could anchor their pitching staff for years to come.

Junichi Tazawa, RHP, AA, Red Sox - There was a bidding war over this Japanese pitcher in the offseason, with some scouts and clubs thinking Tazawa was ready for the majors. Boston signed him for fairly big money, especially for a guy that they sent to AA. Junichi is having a solid year though, and at 23 is a solid looking prospect. It will be even more interesting to see if Tazawa blazes the trail for many Japanese players to not sign with Japanese teams and head to America, or if he remains an exception.

Carlos Santana, C, AA, Indians - It's doubtful that the Indians will trade Victor Martinez, but the main reason they can somewhat seriously consider it is because of Santana (though, honestly, Victor's current backup, Kelly Shoppach, isn't all that bad). If Santana has a great futures game, don't be surprised if the national media starts reporting more Victor Martinez trade rumors. Personally, I think Santana is clearly at least a year away from the majors, and on top of that I think he is a bit overrated at this point.

Jesus Montero, C, AA, Yankees - Meet the heir apparent to Jorge Posada. At 6'4", Jesus is a tall catcher, and I do not know how good his defensive skills are. However, he can definitely swing the bat. Montero is only 20 years old, and already holding his own in AA. In particular, his power numbers are impressive. If the Yankees can squeeze one or two more decent years out of Jorge, it doesn't look like they will have to worry about catcher for another decade.

Alcides Escobar, SS, AAA, Brewers - Escobar has been a highly thought of prospect for a few years now, though his path to the majors is still blocked by the rather young JJ Hardy. The reason Hardy rumors continue to persist are because of how good most scouts think Escobar is. I have never had the chance to see him play, but reports are that his defense is fantastic, and he projects as a good hitter too. Escobar hits for good average, but he'll never have the power that JJ Hardy has. He is another prospect that I think is overrated just a bit, though I like his future. Expect JJ Hardy rumors to ramp up if Escobar has a great futures game.

Alex Liddi, 3B, A+, Mariners - This is the third time I've written about Liddi this week, so if you follow me you've probably got a good idea what I'm about to say. He has always had five-tool talent, but put it all together for the first time in High Desert. He is a threat to capture the California League triple crown right now, and I hope he gets significant playing time in the Futures game. I want to see how he handles himself against pitchers in more advanced leagues, even if it is for only an at-bat or two.

Dayan Viciedo, 3B, AA, White Sox - Viciedo, like Tazawa, was a highly touted international free agent. This time, the White Sox won the bidding war, and many believed Viciedo may go straight to the majors. Chicago started him out in AA though, and it is a good thing they did. The Cuban is overly aggressive, like Cubans tend to be, and as a result he has struggled. Then again, he is only 20 years old playing in AA ball, so it was probably unfair to expect him to dominate. Suffice it to say his production did not get him in the futures game; his raw talent and potential did.

Tyson Gillies, OF, A+, Mariners - Representing the M's along with Liddi is Tyson Gillies, a 20-year-old Canadian with significant hearing loss. He profiles as a leadoff hitter with good defense in center field, and he has enjoyed a fine season so far in the leadoff spot for the potent High Desert lineup. Again, if you follow me, this is the third time you've read something about Tyson this week. He's still the same player he was at the start of the week, and I am looking forward to seeing him play.

UNITED STATES ROSTER

Brad Lincoln, RHP, AAA, Pirates - The 2006 watchlist member is recovering from major arm surgery quite nicely, and will likely be in the majors by year's end. Pittsburgh has a few nice starters, but nobody with the power stuff that Lincoln has.

Brian Matusz, AA, Orioles - Baltimore's first-round pick just a year ago is flying through the minors, and may even reach the majors by the end of the year. He was considered one of the most polished pitchers in the 2008 draft, making him a candidate to rise through the minors quickly. Still, Matusz has certainly been more overpowering than I expected him to be thus far, and I think the Orioles may have a better pitcher on their hands than maybe even they thought they were getting.

Chris Tillman, AAA, Orioles - Yes, this is the same former Mariners farmhand included in the Erik Bedard deal. He is now one of the best pitching prospects in all of baseball, and if you think the Bedard trade looks bad now, wait until Tillman makes the majors. He and Matusz should anchor the top of Baltimore's rotation for years to come. They even complement each other nicely, with Tillman being a righty and Matusz a lefty.

Tyler Flowers, C, AA, White Sox - Flowers can flat-out rake. His bat would is easily good enough to get him to the majors at any position, but at catcher it makes him especially valuable. He is a little bit older at 23 years of age, but he should be ready to crush major league pitching right as A.J. Pierzynski runs out of gas.

Pedro Alvarez, 3B, AA, Pirates - The 2008 watch list member has prodigious power. In fact, I'd like to see him in home run derby on Monday, because he would more than hold his own. Pedro's plate discipline is lacking though, and I am worried that he may never develop it because it looks like Pittsburgh is already pushing him quickly through the minor league system. I expect him to look a bit like Wily Mo Pena at the plate in the futures game.

Brett Wallace, 3B, AAA, Cardinals - If there is one prospect to watch in this entire game, it has to be Brett Wallace. Granted, I am partial to him, considering he was on my 2008 watchlist. However, he should get the warmest ovation since the game will be in St. Louis. More importantly, the Cardinals need some bats to protect Albert Pujols, and Wallace is the best internal option they have. You can bet that Cardinals fans know that, and that they will be watching Brett intently. Wallace is the mostly likely player in this game to impact the 2009 playoff picture.

Jemile Weeks, 2B, A+, Athletics - Another 2008 watchlist member, Weeks started the year hurt, but is off to an extremely fast start as a professional now that he is healthy. He has been awful against left-handers (in a very small sample size though), but he has more than made up for it against righties. Also, Jemile's defense receives high marks. His set of skills at second base definitely make him a candidate to fly through the minors.

Every player in the game deserves a write-up, but here is more than a handful of gems that I am particularly looking forward to seeing. The futures game is a great kick-off to the all-star festivities, and the first opportunity to see many of baseball's future all-stars.