Rainiers Recap - 7/3/14, Reno 1, Tacoma 5

Skydivers entered the stadium pre-game. America!

I attended the Rainiers' annual Independence Day spectacular, and it was spectacular indeed! I also chose it as my annual game to take score at, simply to find out if I still remember how to score a baseball game. It turns out that I do, and armed with my score card, I'm capable of a nice little game recap.

Aces 1, Rainiers 5

Summary: This game was a cluster luck special, though the Rainiers gleefully accepted the good fortune. Tacoma, according to Mike Curto's recap, went 20 innings without scoring a run before breaking though in the sixth inning last night. Jordan Pries stranded base runners left and right throughout his seven innings of work, while his adversary for the Aces, Charles Brewer, proved largely untouchable until the fateful sixth inning. The Rainiers strung together six consecutive hits in the sixth inning, with the pivotal blow stuck by Ji-Man Choi, a bases-clearing double (sort of - Justin Smoak got thrown out at the plate, so only two runs scored despite the emptied bases). Abraham Almonte added a home run that appeared to land on the hill across the street right outside the right field fence in the eight inning, adding a finishing touch to the game and serving as a fitting prelude to the fireworks extravaganza that followed the Rainiers victory.

Game notes:

• Jonathan Stewart, a current NFL running back for the Carolina Panthers, threw out the ceremonial first pitch. He graduated from Timberline High School and obviously maintains a connection with his hometown roots. It is odd to see the best athlete on a professional field throw out a ceremonial pitch and do nothing else. The wonders of AAA baseball, particularly on one of the biggest nights of the year.
• Jordan Pries makes the most of his talent thanks to his composure. Ultimately, his pitching line was pretty nice - 7 innings, 1 run, 6 hits, 3 walks, 7 strikeouts, 99 pitches. However, the line does not capture everything. Pries labored early on, throwing 18 pitches in the first inning and 25 in the second, where he also managed to wriggle out of a bases-loaded jam. His only clean 1-2-3 inning came in the third. He worked around a Chris Taylor error in the sixth. Pries had to deal with the stress of a very tight game too, given that the Rainiers did not score until the sixth inning. Pries topped out at 90mph, which is normal for him (I've seen him start a few times now), and if he threw a few miles an hour harder he would get way more buzz. His ability to manage his pitch count, continually strand base runners, and keep the Rainiers in the game until they broke through, was probably a bit lucky, but not all luck. Pries has high "pitchability" as scouts would say. He knows how to pitch.
• Stephen Kohlscheen pitched the eighth inning for the Rainiers. This was my first chance to see him and I was interested to see him. He hasn't generated much buzz despite blitzing through the M's minor leagues with impressive numbers out of the bullpen. He worked a fairly clean eighth inning, allowing no hits or runs with a walk and a strikeout. The first thing that stands out about Kohlscheen is his height - he's listed at 6'6" and looks every bit that tall. His eighth inning enthralled me because I'm not entirely sure how he generates the results that he does. Kohlscheen doesn't throw particularly hard. He consistently hit 90mph, and occasionally touched 91 or 92 when he reached back for a little extra on his fastball. However, he generated a surprising number of swings and misses, and some batters looked late and uncomfortable in the batter's box. The best explanation I have is Kohlscheen's wind-up. He uses his height to his full advantage with a high arm slot, which creates an abnormally downward angle for the ball's path to home plate. Moreover, Kohlscheen appears to hide the ball well from batters by keeping his pitching arm low behind his back and plant leg most of the delivery. The first comp that came to mind as I watched him last night is current Mariners miracle-worker Chris Young.
• Stephen Pryor worked the ninth inning for the Rainiers. He sat at 92mph early in counts with an easy delivery. However, the old flame-throwing Pryor seems to still be around, because once he got two strikes on a batter he dialed up to 95mph, again with a relatively easy delivery. He gave up a hard-hit double (that, by the way, probably gets caught by a better right fielder than Stefen Romero, who took a circuitous route before jumping up against the right field wall to try to catch it) but followed that with two strikeouts to finish off the Rainiers victory.
• Nick Franklin extended his hitting streak to 12 games with a double in the middle of Tacoma's sixth-inning barrage.

  

  Jesus Montero (#40) didn't play in the
  game, but warmed up Jordan Pries a
  few times between innings.

• Abe Almonte had a very promising night. He saw 10 total pitches in his first two at-bats before getting aggressive in his final two. He ended up with two hits, a solid single the opposite way to left field in the sixth inning (on the second pitch of the at-bat), and the aforementioned bomb he pulled to right field that led off the eighth inning. What also made the home run impressive to me is that it came on the first pitch of the at-bat, off of Kevin Munson, whom the Aces had just inserted into the game. This suggests to me that Almonte's confidence at the plate is on the rise. He went into that at-bat knowing he would swing if he saw a particular pitch - clearly, he got it, and did not miss it. He wasn't just swinging at anything thrown, as evidenced by his extended at-bats early in the game. Almonte has holes in his swing and must compensate for them with a disciplined approach at the plate. He exhibited great discipline in this contest.
• Justin Smoak had an unassuming night at the plate. He went 1-4, collecting a single in the middle of Tacoma's sixth-inning outburst. The single in the sixth inning was easily his most impressive at-bat as it came on the eighth pitch in a 2-2 count.
• Stefen Romero is too aggressive at the plate. He ended up with a single in the sixth inning on a hard-hit ground ball that just eluded the shortstop. He only saw seven pitches total in his three plate appearances on the night and did not make memorable contact.
• Chris Taylor, despite an error on defense and a strikeout in the seventh inning, had a solid night overall. He got two singles, one to left field and one to right, along with a stolen base. He also did a solid job working counts, seeing 15 pitches total in his 4 plate appearances. The only plate appearance he saw less than four pitches was his sixth inning single, which he hit on the second pitch of the at-bat and got an RBI out of. At the time, that single tied the score at one. It turns out Taylor's single was the first of Tacoma's six consecutive hits in the sixth inning.
• Xavier Avery deserves a shout-out. He went hitless on the night but was a pest. He only got three trips to the plate but saw 15 pitches. This is even more impressive given that he only saw one pitch in his second plate appearance, which he dropped down for a beautiful sacrifice bunt that moved Humberto Quintero to third base in the sixth inning (right before the Rainiers strung together six consecutive hits.) Avery lacks power but has good speed and does little things that at least make him an annoying out.

The Rainiers hit the road for a week before returning to Cheney July 11 for a quick three-game home stand against the Fresno Grizzlies before the AAA all-star break.

State of the Mariners (2014 Midseason Report, Part 2)

Roenis Elias (photo credit: gty.im/451385394 by Otto Greule Jr.)

The Mariners hit game 81 in the schedule last night in about as uninspiring a fashion as possible. Josh Tomlin's 1-hit, 11-strikeout, complete game shutout brought back that good old feeling of hopelessness and deflation that the Mariners have provided so many times the past few years.

Thankfully, that helpless feeling isn't so prevalent in 2014. The Mariners sit at 43-38 on the year, on pace for 86 wins if their totals are simply doubled. That's much closer to good than bad, and good enough to potentially squeeze a wild card berth out of.

The 2014 Mariners are a mix of bright and dark spots so far, as might be expected of a team with the M's win-loss record. Understanding what's gone right and wrong is vital to figuring out possible trades at the deadline which could push this team into the playoffs.

Here's my breakdown, group by group, of the 2014 Mariners at the halfway point. It's part 2 of my midseason report (part 1 focused on the minor leagues). Grades are used to help compare player production to preseason expectations:

Infield

• Mike Zunino, C - Zunino's the best defensive catcher the M's have had since Dan Wilson. He's also the most powerful catcher the M's have probably ever had. His low contact rate keeps him from being a good offensive player, but the power and defense are very, very nice, and easily enough to make him a bona fide starting catcher right now. I'm very impressed by Zunino's production this year and see star potential in him down the line. He's one of the biggest reasons the Mariners have a winning record this season. Grade: A
• Justin Smoak, 1B - Smoak has patience at the plate, sure hands at first base, and a great work ethic...but little else. How many more plate appearances do the M's need to decide he's not a starting first basemen in the majors? First base remains a black hole and should be a relatively easy spot for the Mariners to upgrade their production. Maybe LoMo is the answer. Smoak, unfortunately, is not. Grade: F
• Robinson Cano, 2B - Cano isn't a bust, but he's not a rousing success either. The lack of power remains troubling, though everything else is there. He's going to make the All Star team mostly on recognition, because he's played like an above average position player, not one of the premier talents in all of baseball. The Mariners are certainly better with him, and it's fun to watch him play, but there are lots of good players that are fun to watch that make less than $24 million. Grade: D
• Brad Miller, SS - The most underrated move of Lloyd McClendon's managing tenure so far was sticking with Miller through his deep slump. His defense remained good through the slump, which helped his overall production tread water. Now that he's starting to hit again his overall WAR is spiking quickly. Even with the huge hitting slump included, Miller's first half puts him on pace to be a decently productive starting shortstop. Personally, I wouldn't be surprised if he surges in the second half and ends up being one of more productive shortstops in the AL this year. I think he'll end up being just about what the Mariners hoped he could be this season. Grade: C
• Kyle Seager, 3B - Seager's home/road splits are crazy this year. He's on pace to put up the best season any batter has ever had at Safeco Field. He continues to improve each year and is now a borderline All Star talent. Moreover, his overall numbers don't suggest any fluky luck. He doesn't have an unsustainably high home run rate, or BABIP, or low strikeout percentage. Seager is one of the best bargains in baseball right now, and his step forward thus far makes him the offensive MVP, even above Cano. Grade: A

Outfield/DH

• Dustin Ackley, LF - Ackley, the left fielder, is much like Ackley, the second baseman. The hitting still isn't what it was supposed to be back when he was a top prospect. The defense remains surprisingly nice. Overall, that makes Ackley a bench player in a perfect world. There are some numbers to suggest that Ackley is the victim of some bad luck this season though, and if that's the case, he might be a candidate for a second half surge. That would be welcomed. Grade: D
• James Jones, CF - Jones is a fun player to watch, but he's not terribly productive. His defense, thus far, grades out below average in center field though I think he has the tools to become a good defender with more experience. His approach at the plate maximizes his speed, but also limits him to nothing much beyond a slap hitter. One thing worth noting is that Jones, for whatever reason, seemed to struggle the first half of seasons in the minors and get really hot to finish out the year. Perhaps Jones is just getting comfy in the majors and will go on a tear through August and September. Even though Jones shouldn't be a starter on a contending ball club, the reality is that he basically came straight from AA with only a pit stop in Tacoma and has helped the Mariners outfield stay afloat instead of totally imploding. I'm pleasantly surprised at how well he has done. Grade: B
• Michael Saunders, RF - Saunders might be the most important position player the M's have, simply because he's the only good outfielder they have. Saunders is blossoming this year into the quality outfielder many thought he could be as he worked through the minors. Thanks to James Jones he can play a corner slot too, which is his best fit. A healthy Saunders the rest of the way is essential to the M's success the rest of the season. Grade: B
• Corey Hart, DH - Hart looked pretty rusty, as might be expected, even before the injury that has sidelined him for some time now. Still like that the Mariners signed him, and thanks to the structure of his deal, they might have money to spend now because he isn't going to reach incentives put in the contract. A healthy and resurgent Hart would be a huge boost for the offense though. Grade: F

Bench

• John Buck, C - Is what he is; a dependable backstop you don't feel guilty about leaving on the bench most nights behind Zunino. Grade: C
• Logan Morrison, 1B/DH/OF - The jury is still out on LoMo, thanks to the injury that forced him to the DL. It would be nice if he could keep up the power he's shown recently. Grade: D
• Willie Bloomquist, INF - Like Buck, he is what he is and has been used accordingly. Grade: C
• Stefen Romero, OF - I am impressed at how many at-bats Lloyd McClendon finds for Romero. I worried about him getting buried on the bench when he made the team. Injuries have probably helped carve out his role. With that said, Romero isn't ready for the majors. Every number screams that. If I controlled the team I would demote him immediately and bring back Abe Almonte as a reserve outfielder. Grade: D
• Endy Chavez, OF - I can't believe Endy keeps finding his way back to the majors with the Mariners and playing significant innings. He's well past his prime and should be at the end of the bench (at best) mentoring younger players. I'm pleasantly shocked at the homer he hit the other day. He earns the following good grade because of that and how low my expectations are of Endy at this stage in his career. Grade: B
• Cole Gillespie, OF - Cole looks a whole bunch like a AAAA outfielder - consistently strong production in AAA that consistently does not translate in the majors. The Mariners got a short burst of production from him and that's probably about all that could have been hoped for. Grade: C

Starting Rotation

1. Felix Hernandez - Despite all the love and adoration showered on the King every five days, he is underrated. I really mean that. King Felix, to date, is having the best year of his career and it's not all that close. He should be a legitimate MVP candidate (not just Cy Young) with the way he's been pitching. Felix is in the middle of what could go down as the best season a Mariners pitcher has ever had. He's unreal. Grade: A
2. Hisashi Iwakuma - 'Kuma isn't a second ace, and thankfully that conversation seems to have subsided with his recent subpar starts. He's a good pitcher though, and his skills play up and look even better in spacious Safeco Field. Iwakuma has given the Mariners exactly what should be expected of him since returning from injury. Grade: C
3. Roenis Elias - There's an argument to be made that Roenis Elias is the unsung hero for the M's so far this year. The rotation started the year with all sorts of question marks and remains perilously thing thanks to continued injuries. Elias, as it turns out, was going to get the 17 starts he's made so far no matter how good or bad he was. Thankfully, he's been surprisingly good. He was ready for a rotation spot and has room to grow into a legitimate number 3, maybe a number 2 in a career year. Grade: A
4. Chris Young - Much has been made of Young's comeback season so far, and how much of a savior he has been. Young has been a savior, don't get me wrong, but his success is much less surprising than Elias's. Young just had to stay healthy. He's pitching the way he has pitched for years now when he's healthy. The Mariners would be wise to add some rotation depth before Young gets injured again. Grade: C
5. James Paxton - It's hard to grade Paxton. One one hand, those first two starts were phenomenal. It's easy to dream on what he could do for the Mariners coming down the stretch. However, he's injured...again. Paxton has a growing history of injuries that sideline him for stretches of seasons. It would be really, really nice if Paxton could get healthy and give the Mariners the depth they need in the rotation. Grade: D
6. Erasmo Ramirez - I've long been a believer in Erasmo, but he's been horrible this year. It's hard to figure out where his control and command has gone. He's had every opportunity to nail down a spot in the rotation this year and can't find a way to do it. There's still time for Ramirez to develop, given that he's only 24 years old, but this year has been very disappointing thus far. Grade: F
7. Taijuan Walker - Taijuan should make his season debut tomorrow, and that will be exciting. He has the potential to transform the Mariners rotation into a strength as the team pushes for a playoff spot. I expect Walker to have his ups and downs, but no other wild card contender has an arm like him bolstering their rotation midseason.

Bullpen

• Joe Beimel - Beimel has resurrected his career in the M's bullpen and been a nice addition. Grade: B
• Danny Farquhar - Lord Farquhar's breakout 2013 campaign was no fluke. He's filthy this year too. Sneaky good acquisition in the Ichiro trade. Grade: C
• Charlie Furbush - The 'Bush has settled down after some early season struggles. He's taken a step back this year, though he's still quite good. Grade: D
• Dominic Leone - While it's nice to think that Leone "came out of nowhere," minor league scouts raved about his stuff once the M's made him a full-time reliever. His success is nice, perhaps a pleasant surprise, but it hardly came out of nowhere. I think he's the first of a handful of nice bullpen arms the Mariners will develop over the next few seasons. Grade: B
• Yoervis Medina - He is what he is, the definition of effectively wild - thankfully, emphasis on "effectively" so far this year. Grade: C
• Tom Wilhelmsen - The Bartender found his command again this year, at least a bit better than last year. If I were Jack Zduriencik I'd actually be shopping him around a bit, because I'm guessing some other teams can see him as a closer again, or depth in case their closer struggles or gets hurt. Grade: B
• Fernando Rodney - As much as I still believe that Rodney was an unnecessary investment, given how little budget the M's apparently had remaining, he's earning his keep. He is the M's best reliever, despite the roller coaster rides from time to time, because that fastball-changeup combo is rather unhittable. As a fan, I secretly enjoy ninth innings with Rodney. They are very entertaining, and for the most part successful. Grade: B

Averaging the grades I gave, the infield earns a 2.2 GPA, the outfield a 1.75 GPA, and the bench a 1.83 GPA. Overall, that suggests the offense has been near what was expected at the start of the year, or perhaps slightly below what was expected.

The starting rotation earns a 2.16 GPA from me, and the bullpen garners a 2.4 GPA. Overall, at least in my eyes, the pitching staff has been better than expected, and is ultimately the reason the Mariners have a winning record. I figured this would be a .500 team at the start of the year, and they are slightly better than that. Some of the credit for the pitching staff's success has to go to Mike Zunino and his precocious handling abilities early on in his career. Some also has to go to Lloyd McClendon, at least in my opinion, because both the rotation and bullpen seem to have a strong sense of when they will and won't pitch. I think that helps pitchers mentally prepare themselves and ultimately allows them to perform closer to their full potential.

I hope the Mariners make some deadline trades to improve this team. It's a team worth bolstering. They are in the thick of a playoff hunt and a little added talent could go a long way. There are clear areas of need at first base in the outfield, which makes improvement easier to do. It doesn't take an All Star to make this team better; a serviceable veteran at first base or in the outfield would do.

Overall, the Mariners have delivered an enjoyable season to date. There are good reasons to believe they can deliver an exciting pennant chase deep into September, if not beyond.

Double Take on Smoak

Lloyd McClendon didn't say much about his opening day lineup at this point, other than the blatantly obvious (Cano and Seager)...plus Justin Smoak. No, really, Justin Smoak is a lock at first base, even with Logan Morrison and Corey Hart around. McClendon expanded on his thoughts and suggested that Smoak will feature a different approach at the plate that makes him a doubles hitter instead of home run slugger. McClendon went as far to say that he envisions the potential for 40-45 doubles from Smoak to go with 20-25 home runs.

Smoak's career high for doubles is 24, mind you. He has hit more home runs than doubles each of the past two seasons. McClendon's vision for Smoak is quite different from the version that's stepped up to the plate. Smoak would have to change quite a bit.

But Justin Smoak might just have this change in him. And if he does, the Mariners have the first basement they thought they got from Texas in the first place.

McClendon's comments excite me mostly because I'm convinced that Justin Smoak never was meant to be the light tower slugger that the M's seemed to try to morph him into the past few seasons. Scouting reports from his high school days suggest that his lean build (at the time), plus the lack of classic raw power, made him a mildly unorthodox first base prospect. Granted, players change as they mature, and Smoak filled out, but even at the time of the Cliff Lee trade there were questions about his power potential.

Smoak's questionable power profile was also backed up by his minor league production as he rocketed through the Rangers system. In 723 minor league at-bats Smoak accumulated 32 doubles and 22 home runs - not the 40-25 split McClendon envisions, but a bit closer to that than the even split he's had the past few seasons.

I don't see 40 doubles for Smoak. McClendon seems a bit optimistic to me. However, the approach McClendon is preaching might fit Smoak's skills better than what he's been trying the past few seasons. A doubles approach might lead to more contact, and hard contact at that. It wouldn't hurt his plate discipline either, which is a strength of his. Maybe Smoak only hits 15 home runs, but if he gained some doubles and singles in the process he might be a better first baseman, and the best first baseman he can be.

Montero Down and Out

The inevitable finally happened. Jesus Montero got sent down to Tacoma to convert into a first baseman and designated hitter. Really, he's converting to anything but a catcher. Things might have turned out differently if Montero was hitting, but he wasn't, to say the least.

Smoak's Swing no Smoke Screen?

Justin Smoak is on a roll in September, seemingly out of nowhere. He has performed like the first basemen he teased us fans into imagining he could (or would) be after his strong start last season. I want to believe Smoak's September success is more than a mirage, maybe even proof that his altered swing is working out.

I went and broke down Smoak's batted ball data for each month this season. I noticed his BABIP is easily the highest in September out of all his months, and sometimes BABIP suggests good or bad luck in limited sample sizes. However, based on the batted ball data I present in the following chart, there is much more than luck involved with Smoak's surge:

Smoak Up. Oh Well.

Mike Carp hit the DL, courtesy of the remarkable stretch he made below:

The Mariners called up Justin Smoak to take his place. Smoak is a known commodity and got sent down because he wasn't hitting all that well. I saw him in Tacoma a few times, and he did not look much better to me. He did not hit a home run in 82 AAA plate appearances. The biggest difference was Smoak's walk rate, which spiked considerably. Hopefully he packs his patience with him as he returns to the majors, but franky, there aren't many reasons to expect his return to look all that different than what got him sent down in the first place.

I am irritated that Smoak got called back up. Not incredibly irritated, but irritated, much in the same way that a hangnail isn't really that big of a deal, but it's still a hangnail, and enough of a bother to notice and complain about. First base is now the Mariners version of a hangnail.

Progress Report: Hitters

Here's part two in my series of grading player performances based on their performances so far. If you want to read part one on the pitching staff, go here. I will note that these grades are mostly based on the players' hitting performance, rather than defense, or fashion sense.The rest of the grades are arbitrarily determined and whatever I felt like giving them. Enjoy!

Smoak About to get Pipped?

I've been working a little closer to non-stop than usual the past few weeks, hence the lack of updates. August tends to be a dead baseball month anyway, though I've got a couple more general posts are brewing. However, after last night, I have to say something about Justin Smoak and Mike Carp.

Smoak, of course, took a ball off his face last night, and broke his nose. It's a tough break, literally, in a season that has been a series of unfortunate events for Smoak since April. Carp has already been getting regular playing time, but seems even more assured of it for the time being.

Here are some facts about Carp and Smoak:

Smoak's Struggles

Justin Smoak is in a heck of a slump. It was enough to get him benched Friday night, though let's be honest, he doesn't even seem like a problem. The Mariners just took 30 innings to push across 1 run. That's not an exaggeration; that's reality.

Like most slumps, Smoak's is marked by some bad luck. So far in July, his BABIP is .161, which is brutal. At some point, some balls will avoid fielders.

However it isn't all bad luck. It's not as if Smoak has been stinging the ball lately. Low BABIP and weak contact go hand-in-hand, though it's difficult to quantify the relation. The best marker is that every hitter has an insanely high BABIP on line drives. For instance, Smoak's batting average on line drives is .607 for the year.

At some point, Smoak will snap out of this slump, but I think there is a bigger question that his past month has brought up. Which is closer to the real Smoak: the one we saw in April, capable of powering the order, or the one we see now, who is seemingly helpless?

In all honesty, I think it is impossible to say what kind of hitter Smoak really is. He has about a season's worth of plate appearances in the majors for his career. That's not a ton of data to go on. Furthermore, he is still finding his place in the majors, so fluctuations in his numbers aren't necessarily the statistical equivalent of background noise.

Still, that won't stop me from trying to glean something out of what we have seen so far. While Smoak won't always be in major slumps, he might be susceptible to them. There is an interesting trend in his batted ball profile.

Roster Purge Begins

I like to stick with Major League Baseball's etiquette and not talk about anything but the postseason while the postseason is happening, so it's time to talk about the Mariners again!

Honestly, though, we all needed a break from the Mariners after such a disastrous season. There were things I almost wrote about, but then reminded myself how uninteresting those things would be in the midst of meaningful and interesting baseball. Now the postseason is over though, meaning every team is relevant again, even the Seattle Mariners.

Also, the Mariners have been very busy in the few days since baseball's moratorium on news has lifted. Here are some quick-hitters on all the moves:

September Call-Ups Finally Arrive

The only downside of Tacoma's long playoff run is that the Mariners continued to play with 25 players (okay, 26 counting Guillermo Quiroz) through the majority of September. Prospects are more interesting to watch in lost seasons, so that was a bummer at the MLB level. However, I do think it was much more valuable for those prospects to experience winning together in meaningful roles at AAA. I'm not exactly sure prospects will get "The Big League Experience" watching this "big league offense."

In total, one player from West Tennessee and six players from Tacoma were added:

Cliff Lee Traded

Cliff Lee, and his borderline mythical tenure with the Mariners, is over almost as abruptly as it began. Today was clearly a frenzy, and he is now property of the Texas Rangers, along with Mark Lowe, for four players that I will touch on in the following paragraphs.

I've never hidden my attraction to Cliff Lee, the marvelous pitching ace. I didn't want him to go. I wanted him to be pried out of the M's hands with a deal that couldn't be turned down. As luck has it, he might have.

Justin Smoak is a legitimate first baseman for the future. He was the starting first baseman for the Rangers, but he is only 23 years old, and in the midst of his rookie campaign. The best is yet to come with Smoak, but he instantly becomes the starting first baseman here, and the best power threat aside from Russell Branyan.

As a brief side note, I am a little surprised that Branyan did not go to Texas. They need a starting first baseman. I thought that would have made sense for both sides with Smoak included. Why they wanted Lowe, whose season is already over, puzzles me some. From the M's perspective, it does not bother me that he was included.

Blake Beavan is the other significant piece that the Mariners got in return. He is a huge right-hander (listed at 6'7" and 250 pounds), but he hasn't struck many hitters out. However, the production overall is rather good, and he is only 21 years old with AA experience. I think Beaven is still a year away, but that's not that far away. He is a safe bet to make the majors, and be a solid starting pitcher. I don't think Beaven will ever be a star, but he will be quietly good, especially if he plays in a big ballpark with a good defense behind him.

In some ways, the most interesting piece is Josh Lueke. He is a 25-year-old righty blowing hitters away out of minor league bullpens. He is a little old for the levels he has played at, so take the eye-popping numbers with a grain of salt. However, one way or another, Lueke and Lowe are probably tied together in the deal. Did the Rangers want Mark Lowe bad enough that they were willing to add Lueke, or did the Mariners want Lueke bad enough that they were willing to give up Lowe? I am not sure, but my educated guess is that the final haggling was done over these two players.

Last, and probably least, is Matt Lawson. According to scouts, the guy plays a mean second base, and according to his hitting numbers, he knows a thing or two about what to do at the plate. Looking at his stature and production though, he set off Tug Hulett alarms all over my head. I am glad he did, because I have been looking for an excuse to link to Tug's stats all year long. He has fallen off a cliff this year in AAA Pawtucket, and for whatever reason, it's 15 seconds that make me feel good inside every time I look at them. I digress. Getting back to a meaningful point, Lawson profiles in a similar role as Hulett - the type of guy organizations love to have hanging around AAA, or their bench, or around their starting lineup for a couple weeks in a pinch, but that's about it. Considering the M's best options in this role are aging veterans Josh Wilson and Chris Woodward, Lawson was a worthwhile throw-in.

The price tag I put on Lee a couple weeks ago was the equivalent of a few first-round draft picks, plus something else. That is what would make a deal worth considering. Smoak and Beavan alone are worth more than a couple first-round draft picks (not surprisingly, both were first-rounders themselves). Neither are far from being contributing MLB players, and I personally think Smoak has a chance to be just a tick below Mark Teixeira. Their skillsets and paths to the majors are rather similar.

Smoak and Beaven for Lee, straight up, is a deal I strongly consider. Toss in Matt Lawson, and that's probably enough for me to bite. Add Lowe and Lueke to the deal, and my feelings don't change much. Lowe is probably better, but I'm not sure. His mounting injury history worries me. Even if Lueke is never as good, if he is solid for three or four years, it was probably worth trading him for Lowe straight up at this point of their respective careers.

All in all, without knowing about other offers, I have a hard time believing there was a better one than this on the table. The best player the Mariners got in return immediately fills the biggest black hole in the organization (with apologies to catcher, but I still have hope for Adam Moore). Not only is the price fair, but the talent acquired plugs holes. That is the definition of a good fit.

Jack Zdurienciek and friends got this deal right. They maximized their leverage, and got a package that made moving Cliff Lee worthwhile. It is going to be painful watching Lee anchor a Texas-sized playoff run in Arlington this year, but imagine all the Rangers fans that will cringe when Smoak starts assaulting the Hit It Here Cafe.

Flurry of Signings at the Deadline

Baseball needs deadlines to get things done. I guess that is true of virtually anything in life, but it seems particularly true in baseball. It amazes me every year how much happens right before any sort of deadline in Major League Baseball. It is part of what makes the sport so exciting to follow. Here is a blow-by-blow account of how today went down:

• Well before the deadline the Orioles announced their deal with Brian Matusz, and the Yankees announced that they would not come to an agreement with Garret Cole. Also, while a deal between the Giants and Buster Posey was not final, rumors were that they only had to put the finishing touches on an agreement.
• There was little news until about 15-30 minutes before the deadline. That's when it broke that Yonder Alonso had signed. He reportedly got a major-league deal, and a signing bonus in the $4-$4.5 million range. He started the day asking for a $7 million bonus, so the reason this deal got done (to my surprise) is because he lowered his asking price drastically in the last couple hours before the deadline.
• The Alonso deal paved the way for Justin Smoak to sign with the Rangers. He got a $3.5 million bonus, but no major-league deal. Popular belief was that Smoak was waiting for Alonso to sign, but I am not so sure the deals were as intimately connected as most think. If Smoak was truly waiting, I would think that he would have either taken the $3.5 million bonus but demanded a major-league contract, or asked for a $4 million bonus with no major-league deal. It seems that all the college players above Smoak were demanding major-league deals, so I would assume that significant negotiating took place to result in the deal that he signed. That negotiating had to take place while the Alonso situation was very much in limbo.
• The Padres did get Allan Dykstra signed with a $1.15 million signing bonus (and I'm assuming it is a minor league contract). Rumors were that they offered $1.5 million before getting worried about a hip condition that Dykstra has. I am mildly surprised the deal got done, but not so much when I saw that the final figure was only $350,000 less than the rumored pre-injury bonus. Considering Dykstra has had no problems with the condition for three years, I think the situation was a little overblown, and not worth the trouble of going down to the deadline.
• Buster Posey officially signed with the Giants sometime right around the deadline. There are still no confirmed reports, but rumors are that he got a major-league deal, and the signing bonus may be as high as $6.75 million. Some sources say the rumored bonus total is not right, and I would agree. I think it is less, especially if he got the MLB contract.
• It took until a half hour past the deadline for news to break that the Pirates had signed Pedro Alvarez, and the Royals Eric Hosmer. Both must have gone right down to the deadline. Alvarez reportedly got a $6 million signing bonus, but no major-league deal! The bonus is huge, but the minor league deal is quite surprising, especially given the number of college players picked below him that did get them. Early reports are that Hosmer also received a bonus in the neighborhood of $6 million, and I will go out on a bit of a limb and assume he also got a minor league contract.
• As seemed rather likely, the Nationals did not sign Aaron Crow. It will be interesting to see if Crow pitches a year in an independent league, or returns to Missouri. He definitely will re-enter the draft next year at this point. Frankly, I think he may pay dearly for his decision. Next year is supposed to be a strong draft for pitching, certainly a stronger one than this one. Crow is going to have to do something really special in the next year to make it in the top 10 again. As for the Nationals, they were really smart to hold their ground. They are already on track for a top-3 pick in the 2009 draft thanks to the awful season they are suffering through, and now they also have the 10th pick in 2009 as compensation for not signing Crow. As previously mentioned, next year's draft looks like it will have way more pitching talent, so the Nationals can likely land two pitching prospects better than Crow next year. Washington quietly has reason to be very happy tonight.
• As seemed even more likely, the Mariners did not sign Josh Fields. However, they have until May to sign him since he was a college senior. This is even less surprising considering how busy Scott Boras was tonight with all his other clients that needed to sign by the deadline.

Aren't deadlines fun, especially when teams are making decisions with the potential to alter the fortunes of their franchise for the next decade? I think it is great that the deadline is now August 15, but the advantages of the earlier deadline are a topic for another post.

Draftpick Deadline Tonight

Last year was the first under Major League Baseball's new rules for signing draft picks. It used to be that clubs had until one week prior to the next draft to sign their draftees. Now, the deadline is August 15, over 9 months earlier than what it used to be! Despite a drastically earlier deadline, every first round pick signed last year.

I did not think everyone would sign in 2007, I am even less confident about the 2008 crop. Too many remain unsigned with less than 12 hours before the deadline approaches, including a whopping 6 out of the top 10. Here are all the remaining unsigned first-round picks, with the rumors I am hearing, and my gut feeling on whether they will sign or not.

Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Pirates (2nd overall) - If you could not tell from Pittsburgh's deadline deals, their top priority right now is replenishing their farm system. On top of that, they have a bad rap the last couple years of being unwilling to shell out the big money for big-time prospects. While trying to work out a deal for Alvarez, the Pirates have also been trying to assess the arm strength of their second-round pick, RHP Tanner Scheppers, to determine if they want to sign him, and for how much. The bottom line is that the Pirates have way too many reasons that they need to sign Alvarez, and it is doubtful Alvarez will earn much (if any) more money by returning to school. I think he will sign.

Eric Hosmer, 1B, Royals (3rd overall) - Eric, a high-schooler, has a full-ride scholarship to Arizona State and Scott Boras negotiating, two big reasons to think he will not sign. But, ultimately, this is eerily similar to the situation the Royals had last year with Mike Moustakas. They got him signed, so I think Hosmer will sign too.

Brian Matusz, LHP, Orioles (4th overall) - Rumors are that the two sides are close to an agreement as I write this. The 2009 draft pitching crop looks strong right now, so the odds of Matusz getting more money next year are slim. On top of that, Baltimore has all their other picks signed (that are going to sign), so they have the luxury of completely focusing on this deal at the deadline. It is safe to say that Matusz will sign.

Buster Posey, C, Giants (5th overall) - There are also rumors this morning that the two sides in these negotiations are close to a deal. Posey has been asking for a ton of money, and it will be interesting to see what kind of perks his deal includes. I have a hunch he will get a guaranteed major-league contract, which is a major perk. Even though these negotiations look like they have been tough, Posey maximized his draft stock with the epic year he had, and the Giants desperately need position players in their farm system. The high mutual interest in getting this deal done is why I say he will sign. Interestingly, the Giants are yet to sign several of their higher picks, and at this point they may not have enough time to work out contracts with all of them. How quickly this deal falls in place today could be crucial to the team's ability to sign their other remaining picks.

Yonder Alonso, 1B, Reds (7th overall) - Scott Boras is going to be a busy man today, as (surprise) a significant number of the picks on this list are his clients. Alonso is one of them. The rumor is that the Reds are offering a slot-level contract to Yonder (MLB has a slotting system for draft pick contracts like the NBA, but it's only a suggested contract in MLB), but he wants twice that. Alonso has also stated that he would be perfectly fine with going back to Miami and finishing out his college career, which I do not think is a bluff. He has steadily progressed, and it is fair to think that he could be drafted this high next year, if not higher. From the Reds stand-point, there is not a massive need to budge on their rumored offer either, since they already have a young first baseman in the majors in Joey Votto. This is one pick that I think will not sign.

Aaron Crow, RHP, Nationals (9th overall) - The Nationals are offering Crow a contract similar to the one they signed Ross Detwiler to a year ago. Considering Detwiler was selected a few slots higher last year, that is a plenty fair deal. However, Crow wants a ton more. Washington could really use some pitching, and frankly Crow probably only went this high because it was a down year for pitching prospects. It is only logical that Crow will sign, but there is also a report that he has already signed with an independent league team, which may trump reasoning in this case. That is enough for me to say that Crow will not sign.

Justin Smoak, 1B, Rangers (11th overall) - Smoak could have been a high draft pick coming out of high school, but his commitment to South Carolina was way too strong. So, he probably would not have a huge problem returning to school. The popular thinking is that Smoak is waiting to see how much Alonso gets. However, I don't think Alonso is going to sign. I have no idea what that would do to these negotiations. Texas is not exactly hurting on offense, and Smoak probably would have gone higher in a draft with average depth at first base. Still, despite all that, I will go on a true gut feeling with minimal reasoning to back it up. I'm going to say that Smoak will sign.

Josh Fields, RHP, Mariners (20th overall) - Nobody can figure out why Fields has not signed yet. He is a college senior, so he cannot go back to school. Rumors are that the Mariners have offered a contract right in line with his slot too. Fields even said on draft day that he was looking forward to getting in the organization and pitching right away, with some thinking he could reach the majors by September. Obviously, that is not going to happen. This deadline actually means nothing for this pick, thanks to an odd loophole in the rules. Since Fields is a college senior, the Mariners have until a week before next year's draft to sign him, meaning there is no real urgency to get the deal done now. Considering Scott Boras is his agent, and he is going to be busy with plenty of other clients today, I would think that this deal will be the last priority today. Ultimately, Fields will sign...but not today

Allan Dykstra, 1B, Padres (23rd overall) - It looked like Dykstra was close to signing a while ago, but then the Padres found something in his hip from high school that bothers them. It looks as if it bothered them enough to drop their offer, and obviously Dykstra is yet to take it. Another big year at Wake Forest could vault Allan up in the draft, especially with a crop of first-baseman that is bounder to be weaker than this year's. It looks to me like Dykstra will not sign.

Gerrit Cole, RHP, Yankees (28th overall) - This has all the making of a classic last-minute, maximum-leverage, Scott Boras deal. Boras is looking to sign Cole to a contract similar to the one he got for Rick Porcello last year. On the surface, it seems fair. Porcello was the 27th pick last year and was one of the best high school arms in the nation, much like Cole. However, Porcello fell solely because of signability issues, meaning the team that eventually took him (the Tigers) went well beyond the slot recommendation for a 27th pick to sign him. Cole is nowhere near as polished as Porcello, and so the Yankees are rightly holding their ground. In the end, New York has the money, Boras is simply trying to maximize the contract he can get for Cole, and I have a hard time believing Gerrit will turn down a chance to wear the fabled pinstripes. Cole will sign.

History says that virtually all first-round draft picks sign these days. Teams do too much scouting and sink too much money in the draft now to be completely surprised by a player's demands, or be unwilling to pay a little more than they wanted to. Plus, from the prospect's standpoint, how easy is it to turn down millions of dollars? It is safe to assume the deal will get done when it comes to baseball prospects. But, it sure seems like there are too many deals to get done in a few hours this year.