The Muscle Is Back

Well, the Mariners made a trade, just not the one most have been speculating about. In fact, nobody had really speculated that they were on the brink of acquiring Russell Branyan from the Indians for Ezequiel Carrera and Juan Diaz.

First of all, I am an unabashed Branyan fan. He isn't the best player in the majors, and he has his obvious holes, but nobody hits more majestic blasts. Nobody. He's just awesome to watch, and I've definitely missed watching him hit this year. The Mariners have missed his thunder as well, but for no longer.

Carrera is an outfielder that the M's acquired last year from the Mets in the epic J.J. Putz for half a roster swap. He had a killer year in AA, and has been steadily heating up in Tacoma this year. At best, he becomes a speedy leadoff hitter that sprays line drives with a good eye and good defense. At worst, he never squares up the ball as a big leaguer, which would pretty much completely kill any hitting value he could provide. There's no doubt that Ezequiel has very limited power, which makes him a questionable prospect. With Michael Saunders, Greg Halman, and Carlos Peguero in the system, as well as Guti and Ichiro locked in place, Carrera was expendable.

I don't know a ton about Juan Diaz, other than he is a shortstop in advanced A ball, and his hitting numbers are solid, as many are in the High Desert hitting paradise. He didn't hit before hitting the desert, but that includes a stop in the pitching friendly Midwest league, and it's reasonable to assume he has developed with some seasoning. Still, with Nick Franklin and Carlos Triunfel in the system, Diaz hardly leaves a gaping organizational hole.

Back at the major league level, I wonder what this move does for Casey Kotchman. He is blocked for good now, though he does have value as a defensive replacement. Personally, with Branyan back, I would keep Ryan Langerhans around and cut Kotchman loose. I think having both of them on the bench for good is redundant, especially with how little Don Wakamatsu uses his bench.

I wonder what this move does for Cliff Lee as well. My best guess is nothing. At last year's trade deadline, the Mariners made a serious push for Roy Halladay, while also trading away Jarrod Washburn. Jack Zduriencik is fully capable of buying and selling. Clearly, all that matters to him is that the price is right. What this move probably indicates is that the Mariners will hold on to Lee if they don't get the price they are looking for, which is a good thing in my book.

At the end of the day, I have mixed feelings about this move. The fan inside me is stoked to have Russell Branyan back. I think the price is fair too. This isn't like when the M's traded Shin-Soo Choo and Asdrubal Cabrera to the Indians for Ben Broussard and Eduardo Perez, respectively. The Mariners mortgaged a few marginal prospects for a legitimate upgrade this time around.

However, I don't think Albert Pujols could save this offense, much less Russell Branyan. This team is better with Russell back in the fold, but it's still not going anywhere, and now the organization has a couple fewer pieces that could have figured into the long-term future. There are two things keeping this deal from being an obvious bad move: 1. how expendable the guys the M's gave up are, and 2. how much of an upgrade Russell Branyan is (along with how awesome he is to watch). It is a deal I doubt that I would do, but it is one that Z did. In this case, I'm not sure either choice is right or wrong. It is simply a choice, so I will let the fan inside me dream of the Muscle's moonshots as I go to sleep tonight.

A Rosterful Weekend

The Mariners set their 40-man roster heading into free agency by the Friday deadline. Players not on the 40-man roster are eligible for the Rule 5 Draft, unless they are still pretty young (highly imprecise definition, but that's the basic idea). As we have come to expect under Jack Zduriencik, the M's were one of the most active teams. They added six prospects to the roster, lost a couple pitchers through waivers, and through it all the most interesting note from the weekend might be a potential position switch for a top prospect.

First off, the additions:

• Dan Cortes, RHP - Cortes was the prize of the Yuni Betancourt trade. He still has good stuff, but has control issues. Still, he is likely to hit AAA at some point this year. Definitely worth protecting.
• Ricky Orta, RHP - Orta spent most of the season in AA West Tennessee's bullpen, and enjoyed his finest professional season to date. He has a live arm, and maybe something clicked for him this past year. He should be in AAA in 2010.
• Edward Paredes, LHP - I am surprised that Paredes was added to the roster. He is yet to show much potential, and he has not played above advanced A ball. I don't think a team would have looked at Paredes as a possible Rule 5 pick, and even if they did, I'm not sure I'd feel real bad.
• JC Ramirez, LHP - The pitcher formerly know as Juan Ramirez (and still listed by most sources as Juan Ramirez) is an interesting case. Scouts continue to rave about his stuff and mental makeup. However, he is yet to turn that into real solid success, even in the low minors. Given how much some think of his future, he definitely is worth protecting, even though he has at least a few years before he is ready for the majors.
• Anthony Varvaro, RHP - Like several M's pitching prospects this past season, Varvaro was shifted from the rotation to the bullpen, and found much more success. His stuff is electric, though he doesn't always know exactly where the ball is going. Still, especially after a solid AFL showing, it was time to protect Varvaro. It wouldn't be shocking if he plays with the M's at some point this season either.
• Ezequiel Carrera, OF - As if the Putz deal didn't look bad enough for the Mets already, Carrera exploded in AA for the M's in 2009. He doesn't have power, but he makes consistent contact, has a great eye at the plate, and uses his speed for all it is worth. He has the skillset of a prototypical leadoff hitter, and will be in AAA in 2010.

In the process, the M's exposed three players to waivers. Josh Wilson was outrighted to AAA, so the Mariners held on to him. However, they lost RHP Chris Jakubauskas to the Pirates, and RHP Robert Manuel to the Red Sox. Jakubauskas was the surprise of last year's spring training, and carved out a spot in long relief for most of 2009. He had a long road to the majors, which certainly showed with how much he enjoyed his time with the Mariners. For all those personal reasons, I am sorry to see him leave.

Manuel never appeared in a game for the Mariners. He was the player acquired in the Wladimir Balentien trade. In the end, he was a Mariner barely long enough to say hi before we say bye.

Ultimately, Jakubauskas and Manuel are the definition of replaceable relievers. Every team can use a few of them, but they are not highly difficult to find. I would much rather have guys like Varvaro, Ramirez, and Cortes protected, because there are good reasons to think that they will be above replacement level once they develop. Holding on to replacement level players for dear life was part of what got Bavasi in trouble as a GM. It destroyed roster flexibility for no good reason.

All the moves leave the Mariners with 37 players on their 40-man roster. That number does not include free agents like Russell Branyan, Adrian Beltre, and Erik Bedard. Obviously, additions will be made, so the space is needed. Still, since I didn't have to give up Manuel and Jakubauskas yet, I probably would have kept them. On the flip side though, if it was certain that they were going to leave, it is nicer for their futures to let them move on as early as possible.

Now, despite all those transactions, the biggest news of the weekend regards Dustin Ackley. The Mariners are going to have him work out at second base in January. For now it is an experiment, but I think it is an experiment that Seattle really hopes works out.

The Mariners have a logjam in the outfield. Franklin Gutierrez and Ichiro are not going anywhere anytime soon. Michael Saunders may be the opening day left fielder, and his future seems to be pretty bright. Ezequiel Carrera and Tyson Gillies both are promising top-of-the-order bats. Joe Dunigan performed fairly well in the AFL after a breakout 2009 campaign, so he can't be ignored either. It is hard to think that nobody out of that bunch of youngsters pans out.

The infield, however, is a different story. Matt Tuiasosopo is close to ready, but most do not see him sticking at second base long-term, if he ever plays there regularly. Carlos Triunfel lost a year with the broken leg, and he also does not appear to be a second baseman long-term. As of now, the M's best second base prospect might be Kyle Seager, Ackley's UNC teammate and fellow 2009 draftee.

If Ackley can play at second base, his bat would become even more valuable. There are not many good hitting second baseman, and even fewer of them defend well. Ackley, with his athleticism, baseball acumen, and work ethic, has a good chance to be the complete package at second.

I am excited that the Mariners are going to work Ackley out at second base. It makes some sense with where the roster is at right now. It further paves the way for Jose Lopez to get traded, or move to third base. Either move makes more sense than keeping him at second base.

This team continues to find ways to get better. It is either a sign of progress, or of complete ineptitude, when a guy who pitched as much as Jakubauskas is let go for nothing. In this case, it is progress. Two years ago, the M's were cutting players loose like Richie Sexson and Jose Vidro. Now, teams want the M's scraps. This roster still has a long way to go, but it has also come a long way.

2009 West Tenn Diamond Jaxx At a Glance

My Mariners midyear organizational review continues with a look at their AA team, the West Tennessee Diamond Jaxx. It has been a tough year for the team, though they are hot right now with six wins in a row. Even with the winning streak, their overall record for the season is 38-48. Still, there are a few Mariners prospects on the team worth mentioning and watching in the second half of the season:

Phillipe Aumont, RHP - The M's 2007 first-round draft pick was recently promoted to West Tennesee from High Desert, and so far so good. The new M's regime switched Aumont to the bullpen because they feel his mentality is better suited for it, and it also puts him on a faster track to the majors. His stuff is ready for the majors (remember how silly he made David Wright look in the World Baseball Classic?), but it is a matter of consistency for Phillipe. Considering he is only 20 and still growing into his 6'7" frame, a little inconsistency is more than understandable. It is only a matter of when Aumont joins the M's bullpen, not if. I think at least half a season in Tacoma would do him good, but a strong spring training in 2010 could land him a spot on the opening day roster. I would definitely send Phillipe to the Arizona Fall League after this season for a little extra work.

Ezequiel Carrera, CF - With all the players the M's acquired in the Putz trade that have already contributed at the major league level, it is easy to forget about the younger prospects in the deal. Carrera was one of them, and all he is doing is batting .320 with a .438 on-base percentage and great speed at the top of the Diamond Jaxx lineup. He just turned 22 and should be in Tacoma by next year. Carrera is similar to High Desert prospect Tyson Gillies.

Josh Fields, RHP - Last year's first round draft pick has a 4.70 ERA so far, but in his case that is a terrible judge of the season he is having. Josh is all about a power fastball and power curve, and after nearly a year off thanks to how long contract negotiations were, he figured to be rusty. He was, as evidenced by his high walk rate. However, his batting average against is under .200, and he is striking out well over a batter per inning. Moreover, half his walks came in April, and his ground ball to fly ball ratio has gone from around .5 to 1 at the start of the season to around 1 to 1 now. Josh is getting the ball down and in the strike zone as he shakes the rust off. His stuff is already major league quality, so it is only a question of command. I would definitely send Fields to the Arizona Fall League once the season is over, and prime him to come into spring training next year and compete for a spot in the Mariners bullpen. He is closer than his season statistics indicate.

Greg Halman, OF - A break-out 2008 season transformed Halman from a toolsy talent to one of the M's top prospects. Just 21 years old, Halman is having an interesting season in AA. His batting average is only .215, which is not surprising with his 114 strikeouts and just 17 walks in 274 at-bats. His plate discipline leaves plenty to be desired. However, 34 of his 59 hits are for extra bases, including 20 home runs! Halman has serious power, especially for his age. He also has good speed, though his stolen base numbers have plummeted this year. Halman needs to work counts more, and shortening his stroke would not be a bad idea either. Still, despite major flaws that would sink most 21-year-olds in AA, Halman is staying afloat. He probably has the most raw talent of any Mariner farmhand.

Nick Hill, LHP - The 24-year-old West Point graduate has found a home in the bullpen this year. Though a southpaw, he has been more effective against righties, but the split is not too drastic even in a limited sampling size. Hill keeps the ball on the ground and strikes out more than his fair share of batters. He should be in Tacoma next year, but also could be a dark horse to make the M's 2010 opening day roster, like 2008 Diamond Jaxx pitchers Chris Jakubauskas and Shawn Kelley did.

Kyle Parker, RHP - The 24-year-old UW graduate is putting together a solid season for the Diamond Jaxx. He has been solid and productive at every level so far, and though nothing stands out, he is a local product on track to be in Tacoma next year. Parker reminds me a bit of Ryan Franklin as a prospect - nothing real flashy, but if he gets a chance in the majors, he may stick around for a while.

Justin Souza, RHP - Justin split last year between low and high A, pitching primarily out of relief. This year, he has pitched primarily as a starter, and despite the new level and role is putting up comparable numbers to his 2008 performance. Souza generally does not work deep into ballgames, so his home may ultimately be in relief. He is also a fly ball pitcher, though those fly balls do not leave the ballpark often. Souza's good command certainly helps.

Between Aumont, Fields, and Hill, it seems likely that at least one player currently on the West Tennessee roster will play for the Mariners at some point next year. Looking down the road (perhaps as early as 2011), Aumont and Fields could be an end of the game tandem unlike Seattle has ever had. Can you imagine King Felix or Brandon Morrow handing the game to those two after seven strong innings of work? It is fun to think about.

Tomorrow wraps up the minor league portion of the Mariners midseason review with a look at AAA Tacoma. It will be a bit of an anticlimactic finish because so much of the talent has been up with the Mariners already, but it is where any help from inside the organization this year will come from.

Putz Traded in Megadeal

Jack Zduriencik made his first trade as the M's GM, and it is a big three-team one between the M's, Mets, and Indians. Here are the details:

Mariners Get: 1B Mike Carp (from NYM), OF Franklin Gutierrez (from CLE), OF Endy Chavez (from NYM), OF Ezequiel Carrera (from NYM), RHP Aaron Heilman (from NYM), LHP Jason Vargas (from NYM), and RHP Mikael Clato (from NYM)

Mariners Trade: 2B Luis Valbuena (to CLE), OF Jeremy Reed (to NYM), RHP J.J. Putz (to NYM), and RHP Sean Green (to NYM)

Indians Get: 2B Luis Valbuena (from SEA) and RHP Joe Smith (from NYM)

Indians Trade: OF Franklin Gutierrez (to SEA)

Mets Get: OF Jeremy Reed (from SEA), RHP Sean Green (from SEA), RHP J.J. Putz (from SEA)

Mets Trade: 1B Mike Carp (to SEA), OF Endy Chavez (to SEA), OF Ezequiel Carrera (to SEA), RHP Aaron Heilman (to SEA), RHP Joe Smith (to SEA), LHP Jason Vargas (to SEA), RHP Mikael Clato (to SEA)

This is a big deal with lots of players switching addresses. Pretty clearly, it was mainly a deal between the Mets and Mariners, and the Indians became involved to finish the deal. So, I'll start with the Indians.

Why the Indians did the deal:
Cleveland is looking to bolster their bullpen after it took a major step backwards last year. They are finalizing a deal for Kerry Wood to be their closer (pending a physical, which definitely could derail the deal with Wood's injury history), and now they have Joe Smith to be another late-inning guy. Additionally, Smith is young, so he is under team control at a cheap price for several years. Valbuena is attractive to the Indians because it's looking more like Jhonny Peralta will move to third base in the near future, and Asdrubal Cabrera will take over shortstop. Since Josh Barfield has fallen off the map, Valbuena becomes the second baseman when he is ready. Franklin Gutierrez was a natural piece to trade since Matt LaPorta is close to ready to take over an everyday outfield spot, and the Indians already have Grady Sizemore, Shin-Soo Choo, and Ben Francisco. This is an all-around solid deal for Cleveland that makes a great deal of sense.

Why the Mets did the deal:
Clearly, their top priority this offseason was upgrading their bullpen. They signed K-Rod, and now they traded for Putz. He is the centerpiece of this entire deal, and it's clear that the Mets were willing to give up quite a bit to get him. They did protect some of their more highly touted prospects, but they gave up a bunch of solid players. Still, now they've got J.J. and K-Rod, and that's what made them say yes to this trade. As an added bonus/key component of the deal, Aaron Heilman is gone.

Why the Mariners did the deal:
The M's have lots of needs, and virtually all of them were addressed. Mike Carp is a possible long-term answer at first base. Franklin Gutierrez and Endy Chavez will both help out in the outfield. A couple young prospects are in the trade, and a couple players that might make the pitching staff too. Sometimes trading one great player to plug a bunch of holes is worth it, and Zduriencik feels that is the case with this trade.

How the deal developed:
Looking at the players involved, I feel it is pretty clear how this trade developed. I'm certainly not privy to any of the conversations that actually happened, but if I am right, we just learned a bunch about the new-look Mariners front office. Here is what I think happened. Much of this comes from Geoff Baker's Mariners blog for the Seattle Times.

1. Omar Minaya came to Jack Zduriencik to ask about J.J. Putz once he had officially signed Francisco Rodriguez. Jack says he needs an outfielder (perhaps preferably one with defense) in return. Minaya offers Aaron Heilman (since he wants to get rid of him) and Mike Carp. The M's are intrigued by the package, but say that it is not enough. They really need an outfielder.
2. Minaya goes to Mark Shapiro and asks about Franklin Gutierrez. He says it will take a young reliever and middle-infielder. Minaya offers Joe Smith and goes back to the M's to see if they are willing to give up a middle-infielder, as well as replace Joe Smith.
3. As luck would have it, the Mariners have Luis Valbuena and Sean Green, and they will trade both. Additionally, they like Endy Chavez, and are willing to part ways with Jeremy Reed to get him. For the M's troubles, the Mets include some additional prospects.

Like I said this is part rumors and part speculation, so it could be completely wrong. It makes some sense though, and if it is true, I am excited about Zduriencik even more. Neither Gutierrez nor Chavez provide much offense at all, but those two teamed with Ichiro are an insanely good outfield defensively. That will help the entire pitching staff more than any pitching acquisition, particularly "fly ball specialist" Jarrod Washburn. The upgrade those two provide defensively will go a very long way towards replacing Raul's production, since he was an awful defender. As an added bonus, the better numbers posted by Washburn and others may make a bunch of pitchers on the staff more attractive trade chips. This is the kind of creativity that I never saw out of Bill Bavasi.

Jack Zduriencik showed so much in this trade. He addressed so much in this one deal. I did not even touch on the talent he added to the farm system, particularly in Mike Carp. He doesn't look like a superstar in the making, but he's the young first base prospect that was never drafted under Bavasi. The 25-man roster is better today too, thanks to the killer defensive outfield the M's all of sudden have. Plus, Jack freed up some payroll. This is vision. This is creativity. This is having an encompossing organization-wide plan.

There are some concerns with the deal. First of all, it is hard to see J.J. Putz leave. Second, Aaron Heilman has no business being a starter, but he wants to be one, and he may get to be one. If Morrow is forced into the bullpen as a result, I will be quite disappointed. Still, the positives can't be ignored. Jack Zduriencik is fixing the Mariners.