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Padres face Rockies for Wild Card

I tend to shy away from previewing individual games, because the variance in performance by a team from one day to another is so wide (it's part of what makes baseball such a beautiful game). With that being said, I can't resist previewing tomorrow's one-game playoff between the Padres and Rockies:

Padres vs. Rockies, October 1, 4:37 PDT

Probable Starters: Padres - Jake Peavy (100) vs. Rockies - Josh Fogg (67)

Starting Lineup Ratings: Padres - 76, Rockies - 83

Adjusted Lineup Ratings: Padres - 84, Rockies - 58

Bottom Line: Jake Peavy is a bona fide ace, and arguably the best pitcher in all of baseball. Josh Fogg is a serviceable fifth starter at best. Though Colorado clearly has the better lineup, is at home, and also is clearly the hotter of the two teams, all of that is more than neutralized by Jake Peavy. For the Rockies to win, Josh Fogg must keep the Padres in check for five or six innings, because the odds are Colorado won't be scoring much. The Padres do have the better bullpen, but the gap between the two bullpens is nothing compared to the difference between Fogg and Peavy. Plus, a close game will keep the crowd in play.