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MLB Projected Standings, Week 4

One of these weeks I will write something besides a projected standings update.

This is not that week, ironically in part because I enjoyed the watching the Mariners be a first place team and destroy the Astros 11-1 on Tuesday night! Enjoying the game in person trumps writing every now and then.

You can read about the model here, or keep on reading for the updated standings (change in win total from last week in parentheses).

MLB Projected Standings, Week 4:

AL WestAL CentralAL East
Astros, 81-81 (-2), 0 GBIndians, 87-75 (-1), 0 GBRed Sox, 87-75 (+2), 0 GB
Mariners, 81-81 (+1), 0 GBWhite Sox, 86-76 (+2), 1 GB     Orioles, 83-79 (0), 4 GB
Angels, 80-82 (+2), 1 GBTigers, 82-80 (+2), 5 GBBlue Jays, 83-79 (0), 4 GB
Athletics, 77-85 (-2), 4 GBRoyals, 79-83 (-2), 8 GBYankees, 81-81 (-2), 6 GB
Rangers, 77-85 (+1), 4 GB     Twins, 74-88 (-2), 13 GBRays, 79-83 (0), 8 GB
.
NL WestNL CentralNL East
Dodgers, 95-67 (-3), 0 GBCubs, 102-60 (+2), 0 GBMets, 99-63 (+3), 0 GB
Giants, 89-73 (+3), 7 GBPirates, 90-72 (+2), 12 GBNationals, 95-67 (+1), 4 GB
Diamondbacks, 75-87 (0), 20 GB     Cardinals, 86-76 (+1), 16 GBMarlins, 79-83 (+2), 20 GB
Rockies, 73-89 (-1), 22 GB    Reds, 69-93 (-2), 33 GBPhillies, 69-93 (+1), 30 GB
Padres, 69-93 (-3), 26 GBBrewers, 68-94 (-2), 34 GBBraves, 58-104 (-3), 41 GB

Wild card play-in games: Orioles at White Sox, Pirates at Nationals
ALDS match-ups: play-in vs. Indians, Astros vs. Red Sox
NLDS match-ups: play-in vs. Cubs, Dodgers vs. Mets

Some musings:
  • The Giants are projected to miss the playoffs despite having a better record than every team in the American League.
  • Nobody is projected to lose 90 games in the American League.
  • The entire American League is spread apart by only 13 wins. 9 of the 15 NL teams are not within 13 wins of first place in their divisions.
  • It is really hard to tell how such radically different levels of parity will impact the trade deadline. In theory that should make the AL highly competitive and try to acquire lots of talent, but will some teams shy away given the likely gaudy records of several NL teams?
  • The Cubs are for real. They might be the most talented team in baseball the last several years, and with how young they are they have the look of a dynasty.