Old But Good

It seems that the predominant overnight reaction to the Russell Branyan deal is "Why?" It does not make sense for a team out of a pennant chase to give up younger players for an older one.

There are exceptions though, and we do not have to look very far to find one.

Back in August of 2006, the Mariners traded Jamie Moyer to the Phillies for Andrew Baldwin and Andrew Barb. At the time, the Mariners were clearly out of the race, Moyer was on the wrong side of 40 years old, and Baldwin and Barb were in low levels of the minor leagues. This was a classic trade deadline kind of deal. Presumably, the Phillies were mortgaging small pieces of their future to bolster their 2006 team.

Fast forward to today. Moyer is still with the Phillies, and has been worth roughly 6 WAR for them over his tenure (I am guessing some on how much WAR he provided in 2006 for them, because I can only find his WAR for that entire season). He is now crowding 50, but is still a serviceable pitcher.

Andrew Barb got cut by the Mariners years ago. He never made it out of the low levels of the minors. Andrew Baldwin is in Tacoma for his third season, where he has posted mediocre numbers at best. He is now 27 years old, and is yet to make a major league appearance, or even get on the 40-man roster for that matter.

Oh, and furthermore, the hole left by Moyer in the M's rotation was filled by signing Miguel Batista as a free agent.

Again, the whole point of trading Moyer back then was to gain pieces for the future. However, long-term, Moyer has proven to be significantly better. With the advantage of hindsight, it is easy to see that the Mariners would have been in better shape for the foreseeable future if they had kept around the 40-something southpaw.

I bring this up now because of the Russell Branyan deal. Juan Diaz is totally cut out of the Barb/Baldwin cloth. Ezequiel Carrera is better, but not by leaps and bounds. The trade the Mariners made last night to get Branyan back is constructed similarly to the Moyer deal years ago, except this time around the Mariners are the ones acquiring the veteran.

Now, I just admitted that the M's gave up more in this deal than they acquired with Moyer. Furthermore, Moyer has stayed a serviceable pitcher much longer than I think anyone envisioned. The overwhelming odds are that Branyan does not provide the same kind of production for the Mariners that Moyer has given to the Phillies, and I also think it is likely that Carrera and Diaz provide more value to the Indians than Barb and Baldwin have given the Mariners.

Still, nobody doubts that the Mariners are a better team today than they were yesterday. Sometimes, good players stay good for a little while longer. Often, marginal prospects do not pan out. Branyan could end up impacting the Mariners long term as much as the prospects they gave up could have. We will not have that answer for several years, but the precedent is there.

Prospects Looking At Promotions

Though the unofficial halfway mark for the MLB, the All-Star Break, is still a month away, minor league teams are about halfway through their seasons now. Since the low level leagues divide the season into two halves, conveniently around the draft, it's fairly typical to see players who have done quite well so far this year to get promoted throughout the system. So, here's a look at some Mariners prospects that are most likely to get promoted:

WISCONSIN (A)
Andrew Barb, RP - Barb, acquired in the Jamie Moyer trade, has served as the closer for the TimberRattlers and he's been sensational, with a sub-1.00 WHIP and striking out well over a batter an inning. Like Kantakevich, he has nothing more to prove at this level.

Joseph Kantakevich, RP - Another product of last year's draft class, Kantakevich has done everything that can be asked of a reliever, even pitching multiple innings at times. He's got nothing left to prove at this level.

Kyle Parker, SP - Parker, a UW product, was drafted last year and so far has stood out, thanks to a dazzling whip hovering around 1.00. Nothing else is especially great about his numbers, but especially given how weak the High Desert staff has been, he's done enough to deserve a promotion to see what he can do. The lower minor league levels are going to have to be cleared out some anyway to make room for all the pitchers drafted this year.

HIGH DESERT (A-Advanced)
Casey Craig, OF - Craig has served primarily as High Desert's leadoff hitter, and he's done a marvelous job. He has shown good speed, a little power, but most impressively great plate discipline and the ability to hit for average. Craig has been on a tear the last couple weeks and has raised his batting average to almost .350 on the season. Though he's playing in a very hitter-friendly park, plate discipline and speed are not impacted by friendly confines.

Michael Saunders, OF - Saunders is on pace for a 20-homer, 40-steals year, all while hitting .300 with an OBP around .400. As with Craig, his stats are buoyed by the hitter's paradise he plays his home games in, but at the same time nobody else on the ballclub has flashed power and speed like Saunders.

Adam Moore, C - I wasn't happy when the M's drafted yet another catcher last year, but that guy turned out to be this guy, Adam Moore. All Moore has done is flash 30-homer potential with good hitting and plate discipline. He looks like a good, old-fashioned slugger. However, his power numbers could be largely a product of the ballpark he plays in. Still, I'd gladly demote current Diamond Jaxx backstop Rene Rivera to High Desert to see if Moore could bat better than .200 with just a hint of power in AA.

WEST TENNESSEE (AA)
Travis Chick, SP - Chick got hammered in a brief stint in Tacoma, but he's flat-out dominated AA in a couple outings. He's not getting challenged right now, so it's time to move him to Tacoma.

Brent Johnson, OF - Johnson has quietly hit well at all levels, and he's continued that trend at West Tennessee. He hasn't shown much power, but he can definitely hit. He's right on the bubble, but I would push him to Tacoma to make more room for Saunders and Craig. Still, there's a playing time issue in Tacoma too, thanks to Jeremy Reed, Adam Jones, and Wladimir Balentien.

TACOMA (AAA)
Adam Jones, OF - The improvement Adam Jones has made in the last two and a half years is astounding, and he continues to get better seemingly every day. His strikeout rate is still worrisome, but he's batting .330 with a ton of extra base hits. On top of that, he's developing into an excellent defensive player. If the M's could find a decent deal for Jose Guillen, I would trade him, move Ichiro back to right field, and hand center over to Adam Jones. Jones has as much power as Guillen, and his defense is much better at this point.

Mike Morse, IF - It could be argued that Morse isn't a prospect anymore, but what can't be argued is that Morse is hitting very well for the Rainiers right now, and his versatility makes him even more enticing as a bench player for the M's right now. If I were in charge, I would bring up Morse and send down Bloomquist, because little versatility is lost and a legitimate right-handed pinch-hitter is gained. Jason Ellison could become the main pinch-runner, and maybe even get to play a little more in the outfield too.

Wladimir Balentien, OF - Balentien seems to have put power and discipline together this year for the very first time. Two years ago, he had lots of power with few walks, and last year lots of walks but diminished power. Maybe Wladimir is a one-year wonder, but there's plenty of reason to believe this is simply him developing. What's also overlooked is his versatility (he can play all three outfield positions), and his speed (he's on pace for over 20 steals this year). Much has been made about his strikeouts, but he's actually struck out less than the more-touted Adam Jones. It could even be argued that Balentien is more major-league ready than Jones at this point. I'd consider moving Raul to first base full time, benching Sexson, and seeing what Balentien can do. However, more realistically, Balentien will compete for a spot with the Mariners next year.

Jorge Campillo, SP - Though it was Ryan Feierabend that got called up for a few spot starts this year, it's Campillo that has been the best pitcher on the Rainiers staff all year long. He's no ace, but he doesn't give up many home runs, and he could be a reliable starter at the back end of the rotation right now. The only problem is that Campillo is not on the 40-man roster, which prohibits him from being called up without someone already on the 40-man getting released. However, if the M's don't protect Jorge somehow, I think someone will be smart enough to purchase his contract and give him a chance.

How Low Can They Go?

The Mariners are no longer on the verge of the playoffs. They are no longer on the verge of turning the season around. They are not even on the verge of a meltdown. The meltdown has arrived.

Tonight felt like their last gasp. It was game 10 of this 11 game road trip that the team felt would make or break their season. Already 0-9 on the trip so far, Seattle's odds did not look good tonight either with Jarrod Washburn going against John Lackey. The Mariners got down early 4-0 but battled hard and actually took the lead with a 5 run explosion in the fifth, highlighted by a three-run homer from Ben Broussard. It looked like the Mariners might hand the bullpen a lead for the first time in ages.

But it was not meant to be. Seattle was browbeaten for four more runs and the game seemed out of reach at 9-5 in the eighth inning. There was hope with runners on the corners and only one out, but with one pitch Scot Shields induced a double play ball off of Jose Lopez's bat to squelch that threat. Once again the Mariners mounted a charge in the ninth, but it fell short thanks to a series of questionable stike calls that led to a Snelling K to end the ballgame.

Then, as if the game and the losing streak was not enough of a gut shot, word broke that Jamie Moyer had been traded to the Phillies for a pair of low-level minor-leaguers. While Ichiro is very popular, Jamie Moyer in many ways was the face of this franchise. He certainly was a pillar in the community and a rare athlete who transcended sports in this region, especially considering he has never been a superstar. This is an absolute publicity nightmare, especially in the midst of a 10-game losing streak, but I would have been willing to swallow the deal if it made good, sound baseball sense. The problem is it does not. Moyer has now signed a mutual option for 2007 with Philadelphia, making a return to Seattle in 2007 seem unlike. The Mariners already had two holes to fill in their rotation with Meche and Pineiro likely to leave, and now the Mariners have added yet another one by eliminating Moyer, a rather safe bet to re-sign. Though one of the prospects they received in return looks like a potentially good reliever down the road, does the Seattle bullpen really look like a weakness right now? It does not help either that the first comment I read on the deal from GM Bill Bavasi was, "It's not a thrill." Though he was specifically addressing simply dealing away Jamie Moyer and he went on to say some good things about the prospects they picked up, that is not exactly the first thing you want to read from your GM's mouth.

I really cannot imagine things getting much worse for the Mariners. They have lost 10 straight games overall, and an unfathomable 19 straight against AL West opponents. And, if that was not enough of a gut shot, they traded Jamie Moyer. This has to be rock bottom, doesn't it?

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