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Showing posts with label Billy Wagner. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Billy Wagner. Show all posts

"Type A" Failing Baseball

Billy Wagner"Type A" has become a buzz term in baseball the past couple years. It signifies a certain status for a player as the hit free agency. In simple terms, a player is labeled a Type A free agent if they have performed well. In return, if they sign with a new team, their previous team gets a compensatory draft pick, as well as the first round pick of the team that signed them, as long as that team had one of the 15 best record in baseball the previous season. Since this is baseball, the system has several details and steps that I am glossing over. However, the general idea is to promote parody.

Rating free agents has been around for many years. In fact, there used to be Type A, B, and C free agents, but with the latest Collective Bargaining Agreement there are now only Types A and B. Type B free agents net a team compensatory picks in the second round instead of the first. Type B free agents also, in theory, have not performed at as high of a level as Type A free agents. The accuracy of the rating system is a whole separate debate though.

Despite the free agency rating system being around for many years, it has only garnered real attention that past couple years. This has directly coincided with teams valuing their draft picks more. Just today, Buster Olney talks about Billy Wagner's value when he hits free agency at the end of the year, and it centers on his likely Type A status.

Teams are valuing draft picks more than ever, perhaps partly due to the economy. However, revenue sharing is also to blame. It's allowing more teams to sign their young talent, depleting the talent in free agent pools. Even cracking down on PEDs is having an impact. That aging veteran in his mid to upper 30s is more likely to look like he is in his mid to upper 30s these days. Increasingly, any team's best chance to acquire an impact player is in the draft. So, giving up the best chance to acquire impact talent by signing a Type A free agent is a decision being taken very seriously.

As a result, the Billy Wagners of the world are getting unfairly penalized. They are the guys somewhere between productive starter and perennial all-star - plenty good enough to get Type A free agent status, but also not seen as central to a team anymore for some reason. They aren't perceived as impact players, particularly at their age, as much as strong complimentary pieces. In the end, players like Wagner are hurting their earning potential by producing.

That's a problem.

Moreover, that's a problem that the MLBPA has surely noticed, and should bring to the table in labor negotiations next year.

A fair amount has been written about the current draft system in the wake of Strasburg's deal. Everyone agrees it is broken to some degree, and will be an issue in labor negotiations next year. The Commissioner's office clearly wants to limit signing bonuses. Bud Selig has also trumpeted for years a desire to implement an international draft. That was a divisive enough issue last time around that it got tabled to get the current deal in place without a work stoppage. It is bound to come up again.

An international draft of some sort needs to happen, but it is not going to happen without giving the players something. That's how negotiations between any two sides works.

The owners have the carrot they need with the current free agency system. Changing the free agency climate to make it more friendly for veterans like Billy Wagner should be something that the MLBPA cares about. Getting that in return for an international draft and restrictions on earning power in the traditional amateur draft (which may also help veterans - a.k.a. players the MLBPA already represents), is the start of a deal with positive changes.

The draft is broken. Free agency is also broken. This is a case where concessions by both sides could make baseball exponentially better.

What a Wacky Free Agent Market

This year's baseball free agent market is completely ridiculous. Even what was expected makes no sense.

Paul Konerko and Brian Giles, two of the most coveted position players on the market, decided to re-sign instead of moving elsewhere. Konerko got 5 years, $60 million and Giles 3 years, $30 million. Both ended up with contracts in the range that was expected when free agency began.

However, considering the lucrative deals being handed out to closers, those contracts are not in line with the market. Brian Giles will actually get less per year than Billy Wagner and he's barely being paid more than B.J. Ryan. So, according to the market, an All-Star-caliber left fielder is equal to an All-Star-caliber closer. That simply is false. Position players like Brian Giles and Paul Konerko are superior to any reliever because they play so much more. Great position players have a greater opportunity to impact games than any reliever, so they end up impacting games more. Therefore, they should be payed more than any reliever. It is as simple as that.

This free agent market clearly favors relief pitchers. Though it remains to be seen whether this is a one year phenomenon or a trend, teams will be better off going with cheap youth in their bullpen and spending all their money on offense and starting pitching if premium relief pitchers continue to be this overpriced.

Holy $$$$ Batman, look at those free agent closers!


Today the Mets announced the signing of Billy Wagner to a 4 year, $43 million deal. Last week, the Blue Jays announced they had signed B.J. Ryan to a 5 year, $47 million contract. Both are quality closers, pretty clearly the top two free agent relievers this year. However, since when is any reliever worth $10 million a year? The answer is never. These may go down as the two worst deals of this offseason and here is why.

For argument's sake, let's say that both Billy Wagner and B.J. Ryan average 50 saves per year for the length of their respective deals (needless to say, that should be a ridiculously high overestimate). For B.J. Ryan to do that, he would have to save 250 games over the length of his contract and the Blue Jays would pay $188,000 per save. As for Billy Wagner, he would have to convert 200 save chances and the Mets would pay him $215,000 per save. For perspective, each team could call up any rookie pitcher from the minor leagues and let him close games out for less than $350,000 a year.

So, realistically, both the Blue Jays and Mets will probably end up paying their closers more per save than they could pay a rookie to do the same job for the entire year. Though Ryan and Wagner are clearly superior options to any prospect in any system, are they really 30-35 times better? No way. Unless either of these teams win the World Series in the next four years, they will both regret these ludicrous signings for a long, long time.