Cardinals Bolster Lineup With Holliday

Barring a Roy Halladay trade, the biggest deal of the deadline went down this morning. Matt Holliday is now a St. Louis Cardinal. The Cardinals are sending Brett Wallace, Clayton Mortensen, and Shane Peterson to the A's for the slugging outfielder.

Holliday's value sunk after a sluggish start in Oakland. Power especially was lacking. However, there have been serious signs of life in July, and even his current production rate will help the Cardinals lineup. On top of that, Holliday's batting average on balls in play so far this year is about 50 points worse than his career mark, and his strikeout rate has not gone up. Perhaps Matt is not hitting the ball as hard, but on paper that looks like some bad luck.Between regression to the mean and returning to the NL, Holliday could explode in St. Louis.

As for who the A's acquired, Brett Wallace is the centerpiece. Faithful readers of mine likely remember him from last year's watchlist. I love his bat, as does pretty much everyone now. That's why the A's got him, and they may bring him up immediately to play third base. I do not think he is quite ready, but I thought the same about fellow 2008 watchlist member Gordon Beckham, and he is doing just fine for the White Sox right now.

Shane Peterson is an outfielder also from last year's draft class. In his first full pro season, Shane is already in AA and hitting modestly well. He makes consistent content, but does not have a ton of power. Speed is a tremendous asset for him though, and he is a smart baserunner too. Though I haven't seen him play, I have a hunch he plays awfully good defense with his skillset.

Clayton Mortensen was the Cardinals first round draft pick in 2007. He has a local connection as a former Gonzaga bulldog. Mortensen is a right-handed pitcher already in AAA. He gets a few more ground balls than an average pitcher, but everything else about him is pretty much just there. At 24 years old, Clayton will still develop some, but he doesn't look like much more than a decent starter to me.

Oakland originally traded Carlos Gonzalez, Greg Smith, and Huston Street for Holliday. Wallace essentially takes the place of Gonzalez, but I think most would consider Carlos a better prospect. He is younger and has hit better than Wallace in AAA. Mortensen is a young starting pitcher like Greg Smith, but Smith is definitely superior. Lastly, Huston Street and Shane Peterson are the hardest two to compare. If Peterson develops into a major league contributor for five or six years, with two or three of those as a starting-caliber player, he will be an upgrade over what the A's would have got from Huston this point going forward. Though Matt Holliday's value probably has sunk, the A's did not sell him at half price. They got a decent haul for him.

St. Louis needs to find a way to re-sign Matt Holliday to make this deal worthwhile for them. In the immediate future, this bolsters their playoff chances a ton. Pujols and Holliday are a scary good combo, especially in a division with several decent teams, but no great ones. The Cubs could still make a charge with Aramis Ramirez's turn and a bit more productive Alfonso Soriano, but St. Louis has to be the favorites now.

This feels a little bit to me like the Scott Rolen trade back in 2003. After Rolen turned down a huge contract extension in Philadelphia, it seemed likely he would get traded before the deadline. Holliday was in a similar position, where people expected him to get dealt before the deadline from the start of the season. Rolen ultimately signed an extension in St. Louis that was considerably smaller than the one he turned down in Philadelphia, and was a fixture in the heart of the Cardinals order for several years.

Holliday is a few years older than Rolen was in 2003, and the talent St. Louis gave up to get him may prove to be better than what they gave the Phillies back then. I have a hunch Matt Holliday will love playing in St. Louis, so perhaps he will stay for a bit of a discounted price. He will have to with Pujols around, gobbling up a significant portion of the payroll (and deservedly so).

I've been impressed with Cardinals GM John Mozeliak ever since he took over a few years ago. His drafts produced all the players St. Louis gave up in the Holliday deal. Now we know he has some serious guts. His legacy now rides on this deal. I'm even more impressed with him now.

Albert Pujols has been clamoring for more help and an indication that the team is really serious about winning. He shouldn't have any doubts now.

M's Sans Kuroda, A's Sans Haren

The baseball world did stop for the release of the Mitchell report, but just barely. The Hot Stove League continues to simmer with activity, with pitchers finally on the move. The two highlights were clearly the Dodgers signing Hiroki Kuroda (72), and the A's trading Dan Haren (86). Here is a look at both of the moves, from an AL West perspective:

Dodgers sign SP Hiroki Kuroda to a 3-year, $35.3 million deal - Between Bavasi and McLaren's trip to Japan, a Japanese catcher, and a reportedly larger deal offered than the Dodgers, I thought the Mariners were the front-runners for Kuroda the whole time. Most, especially the M's front office, see Kuroda as a big loss, but all things considered, I am very happy he decided to sign elsewhere. While it would be nice to see the M's add another solid starter, I would rather give the younger players already on the roster a chance before overpaying for free agents like Kuroda, Carlos Silva (75), and Kyle Lohse (73).

Athletics trade SP Dan Haren (86) and SP Connor Robertson (62/73) to the Diamondbacks for SP Dana Eveland (75/84), SP Greg Smith (62/75), SP Brett Anderson (43/86), OF Carlos Gonzalez (53/76), OF Aaron Cunningham (51/85), and 1B Chris Carter (40/83) - This trade is fair...sort of. I felt all along the A's absolutely would not trade Haren unless they were certain they were getting more talent in return for what they were giving up. Clearly, they did. The popular perception is that Gonzalez, the D'Backs best prospect according to Baseball America, was the key to this deal. However, I think the real key was Dana Eveland, who can replace Haren immediately and has a good chance to be just as good as him a couple years down the road. Anderson, Cunningham, and Carter also look impressive, and Smith looks like he will be a solid bullpen arm. Basically, if any of the five outside of Smith pan out for the A's, it will be a fair deal, and the odds are more than one of them lives up to their potential. As for Arizona, they now have one of the finest 1-2 starting punches in all of baseball, and they used their loaded farm system to avoid trading any major league contributors. They may have given up more talent than they acquired, but that is what a strong farm system allows a team to do.