Morneau Makes Some Sense

I mostly avoid hypothetical trades because anyone can come up with a made-up trade and they rarely come to fruition. My following proposal highlights a larger market trend that the Mariners might be poised to take advantage of. Here is my trade proposal:

• Mariners trade 1B/OF Mike Carp and OF Franklin Gutierrez to the Twins for 1B Justin Morneau

The upside for the Mariners is pretty clear. They get a proven slugger with some gas left in the tank at a position they can readily fill. The Twins have traded away both Denard Span and Ben Revere this offseason, so Guti provides them a little outfield depth, and Carp gives them another option besides Chris Parmelee to replace Morneau. Joe Mauer might find himself playing more first base too. Carp is a logical guy for the Mariners to trade because he is out of minor league options, and I doubt a shoo-in to make the opening day roster.

Morneau makes $14 million in 2013, but Guti slated to make $7 million. Overall, that means the Mariners take on $7 million, which still leaves them roughly $13 million to spend in free agency. I doubt that hinders them from signing any of the best bats still available besides Josh Hamilton.

Ultimately, this deal likely makes sense for the Twins only if they value the money they save. I would be willing to sweeten the deal with a marginal prospect, but none of the big names. Perhaps Carlos Triunfel intrigues the Twins. I'd even play around with including a guy like Charlie Furbush.

Let's suppose the Mariners and Twins make this trade, and then the Mariners sign Cody Ross in free agency. Here is what the M's lineup could look like:

Smoak About to get Pipped?

I've been working a little closer to non-stop than usual the past few weeks, hence the lack of updates. August tends to be a dead baseball month anyway, though I've got a couple more general posts are brewing. However, after last night, I have to say something about Justin Smoak and Mike Carp.

Smoak, of course, took a ball off his face last night, and broke his nose. It's a tough break, literally, in a season that has been a series of unfortunate events for Smoak since April. Carp has already been getting regular playing time, but seems even more assured of it for the time being.

Here are some facts about Carp and Smoak:

September Call-Ups Finally Arrive

The only downside of Tacoma's long playoff run is that the Mariners continued to play with 25 players (okay, 26 counting Guillermo Quiroz) through the majority of September. Prospects are more interesting to watch in lost seasons, so that was a bummer at the MLB level. However, I do think it was much more valuable for those prospects to experience winning together in meaningful roles at AAA. I'm not exactly sure prospects will get "The Big League Experience" watching this "big league offense."

In total, one player from West Tennessee and six players from Tacoma were added:

2009 Tacoma Rainiers At a Glance

Before delving in to today's post, I should mention something real quick. Kevin Cacebelos over at seatownsports.net approached me about writing a guest post, and that is now up. It's a closer look at the two M's in the futures game, Tyson Gillies and Alex Liddi. Check it out, as well as the whole blog. As the name suggests, they cover Seattle sports, and have all sorts of interesting content.

Finishing out the midseason glances at Mariners minor league affiliates is a quick look at AAA Tacoma. With all the M's injuries this year, several players on this list are known commodities that have logged some time in the majors. Also, this list will include a few older players that are not really prospects anymore, but are internal options to join the Mariners if needed. Any of these players could be called up by the end of the year. Without further ado, the Rainiers to keep tabs on:

Chris Shelton, 3B - Shelton definitely falls under the category of non-prospect that could help out the team. In fact, rumor is that he will be called up today. To call Chris a third baseman is being polite, but he has played there regularly for Tacoma all season. The 29-year-old is here for his bat, plain and simple. It will be interesting to see how what Don Wakamatsu does with him, especially if he hits really well, given his limited defensive abilities.

Mike Carp, 1B - The most advanced prospect the M's got in the Putz deal is enjoying a fine first season in AAA. Plate discipline is Carp's greatest attribute, and he has enough power to go with it to post good enough power numbers to be the first base prospect Bill Bavasi never drafted. Carp has been playing outfield from time to time in Tacoma too, though I think that has as much to do with getting everyone playing time down there as anything else.

Jeff Clement, 1B - That's right, Jeff Clement is no longer a catcher. I'm surprised this has not been talked about more. It was pretty clear when Guillermo Quiroz was called up in front of him. It's also clear considering that Adam Moore has been the everyday catcher in Tacoma since being called up a few months ago. Clement has been DHing primarily for the Rainiers, but played first base last night. At this point he is a bat without a position, and he is almost 26 years old. He should have been moved to first base years ago by the Bavasi regime once he developed elbow problems, especially with the black hole the M's had in the farm system at first base. I think Clement is one of the most likely Mariners to get traded at the deadline, and if not at the deadline, then in the offseason. He is no longer a key part of the organization's plans, and I would argue he isn't really a part of the plan at all at this point.

Doug Fister, RHP - One number stands out for the 6'8" righty, his walks. He only has five of them the whole year. That's a little better than one every other start. He gets hit around, but he also gets a fair number of strikeouts and keeps the ball in the ballpark fairly well. A pitcher with Fister's command and at least decent stuff is worth paying some attention to.

Bryan LaHair, OF/1B - Sometimes it is funny how things work out. Bryan LaHair was an outfielder in college, but the Bavasi regime switched him to first base because they did not believe he would stick in the outfield as he developed. Then, despite a black hole at first base for a couple years, he never got a look in the majors until the roof caved in last year. Now, with Mike Carp around, LaHair is back in the outfield. The 26-year-old is having his best pro season yet, but he is basically the same player we saw last year with a little bit more power.

Adam Moore, C - Adam is the Mariners catcher of the future, if they have one in the system at this point. He is a little bit older at 25 years of age, but year by year has progressed through the minor league system. His power numbers are down this year, and they will need to come up for Moore to seriously challenge for the M's starting catcher spot. His best bet for improving them is better plate discipline. Moore has room to walk a little more. Still, he is likely to get called up in September, and get more than a cursory look in spring training next year.

Prentice Redman, OF - At 30 years old, Redman definitely is not a prospect, but he has been pretty good in Tacoma for a couple years now. He never really got a chance in the majors, which is a shame because he is good enough to be a reserve outfielder and right-handed pinch hitter.

Ryan Rowland-Smith, LHP - When can we expect Hyphen18 back on the Safeco mound? Maybe sooner than later. His velocity has come back, and his last start was by far his best of the year. He went seving innings and delivered a very strong performance, throwing over 100 pitches along the way. The question is whether he is a better option than Jason Vargas, and that's debatable.

Michael Saunders, LF - The Victoria, BC native is not far away from the majors. He needs just one more home run to tie his total for all of 2008, and most of that season was spent in AA. Saunders is progressing quickly, and it is really encouraging to see power starting to come out of his 6'4" frame. He should be a September call-up, and he is the early favorite to start in left field on opening day 2010 for the M's if you ask me.

The lack of pitching prospects in Tacoma should not be too surprising or discouraging. The M's are carrying extra pitchers right now, and have been depleting by injuries too. Both Garrett Olson and Jason Vargas started the year in Tacoma, Ryan Feierabend is out for the year, and Cesar Jimenez is working back from an injury as well.

This wraps up a quick four-day tour of the Mariners minors. Some notable prospects were left out, including everyone in rookie leagues, but in the end I looked at 33 players that have put together good (or at least intriguing) seasons, with varying levels of potential. Overall, the system looks stronger this year than last, thanks to a good final draft by Bavasi, the Putz deal by Zduriencik, and perhaps the new development approach. Nobody has been rushed through the system this year, which was definitely something Bavasi had a bad habit of doing. Just like everything Jack Z has touched in this franchise so far, the farm system is on the rise.

Roster in Flux

As it has become apparent that the M's offense could use a boost, I have been thinking about possible solutions. So, a post about the roster has been in the back of my head for a while. However, as I was about ready to write something, the roster looks much different right now than it will next week, making a post somewhat silly until things settle down a little bit. It is hard to figure out where to even start. Here are the losses as of right now:

• Russell Branyan is gone today to attend a funeral
• Erik Bedard was placed on the DL yesterday, but retroactive to June 8. He may be out only a week, but he is seeing a doctor today.
• As of a couple hours ago, Jose Lopez is now on the bereavement list. His sister is dying. This comes about a couple years after his brother was killed in a crash. No matter what you think about his aggressive approach at the plate, your heart has to go out to him. He is probably gone for around a week now, though I hope he takes as long as is needed, even though the M's middle infield looks really bad without him.

Aside from the personnel losses, this is a clubhouse that probably is a little gloomy right now. The Lopez story has to hit hard, especially as it comes the day that Branyan is going to a funeral, and a day after Bedard goes on the DL, and not long after Rob Johnson lost his mother-in-law tragically in a car crash. I will say that I am glad this kind of situation did not happen last year, with that less-than-perfect clubhouse to say the least. Hopefully the team can rally around the losses, and play some inspired ball for their grieving teammates.

In conjunction with the losses, additions and changes are on the horizon:

• Mike Carp was called up to take Bedard's spot on the roster. He walked in his major league debut last night, and will start in place of Russell Branyan tonight
• Chris Woodward has taken Jose Lopez's spot for the time being. To make room on the 40-man roster, Carlos Silva was transferred to the 60-day DL.
• Rob Johnson will come off the bereavement list soon
• Kenji Johjima is close to coming off the DL, though he likely will have a rehab assignment
• Brandon Morrow gets the start tonight, as he transitions at the major league level into being a starter
• Ryan Rowland-Smith started again for Tacoma last night, and though his line was not all that great, he pitched deeper into the ballgame and his velocity was up, both signs that he is getting closer to ready
• Shawn Kelley is should be ready to come off the DL relatively soon as well

It is all a little overwhelming right now. A middle infielder had to be brought up, and Woodward was the most logical choice. He can play anywhere in the infield, and he has quite a bit of major league experience. He is what he is, though this could be a big break for him. Shortstop has been a black hole for the Mariners this year, and though Woodward is not all that great, he may prove to be a significant upgrade. His .674 OPS should make him a backup, but that's significantly better than both Yuniesky Betancourt and Ronny Cedeno's production thus far. Now that Woodward is on the 40-man roster, he may stick around a while. If I were the Mariners, I would strongly consider sending Betancourt down to AAA, and keep Woodward once Jose Lopez comes back.

Mike Carp is another interesting move. He has played a little left field in Tacoma, and perhaps he could get some regular playing time out there since he is up right now. That has been another spot where offensive production has been pretty bad. A couple good games from Carp could make things a little interesting, though I believe Jack Z when he says that Carp will only be up for a little bit, and I agree that he is not an answer for this team right now (for the record, I think Endy Chavez needs to play every day in left field and bat ninth).

So much is in the air with this roster right now, thanks to injuries and some unfortunate circumstances for key players. It is all compounded by Morrow's switch from the bullpen to the rotation. A few guys now have opportunities for the next couple days at least to show what they can do, and maybe stick a little while longer. This is still a team in transition from the old regime to new, but the team happens to be in a bit of a pennant race as the franchise reinvents its identity. It is interesting to watch, but also scary. After watching M's rosters that seemed to be stagnant at this point in the recent past, this certainly is a new day, a new way.

Putz Traded in Megadeal

Jack Zduriencik made his first trade as the M's GM, and it is a big three-team one between the M's, Mets, and Indians. Here are the details:

Mariners Get: 1B Mike Carp (from NYM), OF Franklin Gutierrez (from CLE), OF Endy Chavez (from NYM), OF Ezequiel Carrera (from NYM), RHP Aaron Heilman (from NYM), LHP Jason Vargas (from NYM), and RHP Mikael Clato (from NYM)

Mariners Trade: 2B Luis Valbuena (to CLE), OF Jeremy Reed (to NYM), RHP J.J. Putz (to NYM), and RHP Sean Green (to NYM)

Indians Get: 2B Luis Valbuena (from SEA) and RHP Joe Smith (from NYM)

Indians Trade: OF Franklin Gutierrez (to SEA)

Mets Get: OF Jeremy Reed (from SEA), RHP Sean Green (from SEA), RHP J.J. Putz (from SEA)

Mets Trade: 1B Mike Carp (to SEA), OF Endy Chavez (to SEA), OF Ezequiel Carrera (to SEA), RHP Aaron Heilman (to SEA), RHP Joe Smith (to SEA), LHP Jason Vargas (to SEA), RHP Mikael Clato (to SEA)

This is a big deal with lots of players switching addresses. Pretty clearly, it was mainly a deal between the Mets and Mariners, and the Indians became involved to finish the deal. So, I'll start with the Indians.

Why the Indians did the deal:
Cleveland is looking to bolster their bullpen after it took a major step backwards last year. They are finalizing a deal for Kerry Wood to be their closer (pending a physical, which definitely could derail the deal with Wood's injury history), and now they have Joe Smith to be another late-inning guy. Additionally, Smith is young, so he is under team control at a cheap price for several years. Valbuena is attractive to the Indians because it's looking more like Jhonny Peralta will move to third base in the near future, and Asdrubal Cabrera will take over shortstop. Since Josh Barfield has fallen off the map, Valbuena becomes the second baseman when he is ready. Franklin Gutierrez was a natural piece to trade since Matt LaPorta is close to ready to take over an everyday outfield spot, and the Indians already have Grady Sizemore, Shin-Soo Choo, and Ben Francisco. This is an all-around solid deal for Cleveland that makes a great deal of sense.

Why the Mets did the deal:
Clearly, their top priority this offseason was upgrading their bullpen. They signed K-Rod, and now they traded for Putz. He is the centerpiece of this entire deal, and it's clear that the Mets were willing to give up quite a bit to get him. They did protect some of their more highly touted prospects, but they gave up a bunch of solid players. Still, now they've got J.J. and K-Rod, and that's what made them say yes to this trade. As an added bonus/key component of the deal, Aaron Heilman is gone.

Why the Mariners did the deal:
The M's have lots of needs, and virtually all of them were addressed. Mike Carp is a possible long-term answer at first base. Franklin Gutierrez and Endy Chavez will both help out in the outfield. A couple young prospects are in the trade, and a couple players that might make the pitching staff too. Sometimes trading one great player to plug a bunch of holes is worth it, and Zduriencik feels that is the case with this trade.

How the deal developed:
Looking at the players involved, I feel it is pretty clear how this trade developed. I'm certainly not privy to any of the conversations that actually happened, but if I am right, we just learned a bunch about the new-look Mariners front office. Here is what I think happened. Much of this comes from Geoff Baker's Mariners blog for the Seattle Times.

1. Omar Minaya came to Jack Zduriencik to ask about J.J. Putz once he had officially signed Francisco Rodriguez. Jack says he needs an outfielder (perhaps preferably one with defense) in return. Minaya offers Aaron Heilman (since he wants to get rid of him) and Mike Carp. The M's are intrigued by the package, but say that it is not enough. They really need an outfielder.
2. Minaya goes to Mark Shapiro and asks about Franklin Gutierrez. He says it will take a young reliever and middle-infielder. Minaya offers Joe Smith and goes back to the M's to see if they are willing to give up a middle-infielder, as well as replace Joe Smith.
3. As luck would have it, the Mariners have Luis Valbuena and Sean Green, and they will trade both. Additionally, they like Endy Chavez, and are willing to part ways with Jeremy Reed to get him. For the M's troubles, the Mets include some additional prospects.

Like I said this is part rumors and part speculation, so it could be completely wrong. It makes some sense though, and if it is true, I am excited about Zduriencik even more. Neither Gutierrez nor Chavez provide much offense at all, but those two teamed with Ichiro are an insanely good outfield defensively. That will help the entire pitching staff more than any pitching acquisition, particularly "fly ball specialist" Jarrod Washburn. The upgrade those two provide defensively will go a very long way towards replacing Raul's production, since he was an awful defender. As an added bonus, the better numbers posted by Washburn and others may make a bunch of pitchers on the staff more attractive trade chips. This is the kind of creativity that I never saw out of Bill Bavasi.

Jack Zduriencik showed so much in this trade. He addressed so much in this one deal. I did not even touch on the talent he added to the farm system, particularly in Mike Carp. He doesn't look like a superstar in the making, but he's the young first base prospect that was never drafted under Bavasi. The 25-man roster is better today too, thanks to the killer defensive outfield the M's all of sudden have. Plus, Jack freed up some payroll. This is vision. This is creativity. This is having an encompossing organization-wide plan.

There are some concerns with the deal. First of all, it is hard to see J.J. Putz leave. Second, Aaron Heilman has no business being a starter, but he wants to be one, and he may get to be one. If Morrow is forced into the bullpen as a result, I will be quite disappointed. Still, the positives can't be ignored. Jack Zduriencik is fixing the Mariners.