Strasburg Should Get More Starts

Stephen Strasburg got shut down for the year. He is the best pitcher on arguably the best team in baseball. A legitimate World Series contender just shut down their ace for the season. It miserably fails the "eye test" as a good decision. Add me to the chorus of silly and unfounded complainers.

I have two overarching issues with how the Nationals handled Strasburg this season, one more deeper and fundamental than the other.

Strasburg Debate Revisited

My 2009 College Players to Watch list, if it is to be remembered, will be remembered for one thing: I ranked Stephen Strasburg behind Dustin Ackley. Here is a portion of what I wrote about Strasburg when I posted the 2009 list:

...To say that Strasburg is the consensus top pick is an understatement. Many are calling him the best pitching prospect in decades, or even a prospect of the kind that we have never seen before. I will spare that debate for later...

Now, it's time for the debate. It's easier to have it now that both players are signed.

Stephen Strasburg is a special talent, but he is set up to fail. He really is. Scouts have gushed over him, calling him anything from the best prospect in the last 25 years, to the best pitching prospect ever, to the best prospect ever.

Really?

I don't want to come across as someone down on Strasburg, but somebody needs to bring some rational thought to this debate. Let's consider some other pitchers in recent memory:

• Josh Beckett: Is Strasburg a better prospect than Beckett was? Strasburg wasn't drafted out of high school, yet Beckett went second overall in 1999 as a prep flame-thrower with a promising power curve. I think it's safe to say that Beckett panned out - he shut down the Yankees in one of the more memorable pitching performances of the past decade, with his complete game in old Yankee Stadium to clinch the 2003 World Series for the Marlins. He was 23 years old when he did that. Since then, Beckett was the centerpiece of the deal that netted Hanley Ramirez for Florida, and has won another championship anchoring the Red Sox staff. Clearly, Beckett was well ahead of Strasburg as an 18-year-old, and Strasburg will have to be an emerging ace by 2011 to even be in the debate with Beckett.

I could pick any high school pitcher and claim they were a better prospect though. Stephen really exploded in college, so it is more fair to compare him to college prospects. Consider some of these from recent memory...

• Roger Clemens: Maybe Clemens is pushing the boundaries of "recent memory." However, he was drafted out of high school in 1981, but didn't sign. He signed when the Red Sox picked him in the first round in 1983. Clemens was in Boston's rotation in 1984, and won his first Cy Young in 1986 as a 23-year-old. Rumored steroid use has tainted his career, but I think he was clean until he became a Blue Jay in the late '90s. Clemens was the 19th pick in his draft, so arguably Strasburg is more highly touted. However, Boston clearly loved Roger. He was in the rotation immediately, and produced immediately.
• Tim Lincecum: I think Tiny Tim is a fantastic comparison. Lincecum put up similar numbers to Strasburg in college, but did it in a tougher conference. He caught eyes with his blazing fastball, much like Strasburg. The biggest difference is that Lincecum is shorter than Strasburg, and has a funkier delivery. That's what kept him from going higher in the draft, but he still went 11th overall. Lincecum ended up spending only a few months in the minors, and in his first full season won the NL Cy Young award. He is a front-runner to win the Cy Young again this year. In other words, Strasburg arguably will have to win a Cy Young before his rookie deal is over to compare with Lincecum.

Perhaps I should limit myself to only top overall picks, since I'm yet to pick one of those to compare to Strasburg. I'd agree that Strasburg is better than many other college pitchers picked first overall - the last five before Strasburg are David Price (2007), Bryan Bullington (2002), Matt Anderson (1997), Kris Benson (1996), and Paul Wilson (1994). They have a combined zero all-star appearances between them, though Price is still active and promises to be a good pitcher in the near future. If anything, past history suggests that the best player in a draft class is rarely picked number one overall.

I understand that there is a difference between potential and development. Some players with great potential never realize it, while others develop seemingly out of nowhere. Because of that, I can pick virtually anyone to make any argument I want.

Still, Josh Beckett was clearly a much more highly touted prospect in high school than Strasburg was. Doesn't that make him arguably a better prospect, especially considering what Beckett has become? He had high expectations as the second overall pick, and delivered.

Roger Clemens stepped into Boston's rotation immediately, much like Strasburg is expected to do with the Nats. Clemens was expected to do that as the 19th pick overall in his draft, so should we expect even more out of Strasburg? Expecting comparable production out of a guy as highly touted as Strasburg seems fair.

Tim Lincecum had comparable production to Strasburg in college, and was also a first round pick. It's hard to say he came out of nowhere. Should we expect at least two Cy Youngs out of Strasburg before he hits arbitration? After all, Stephen doesn't have some of the question marks that scouts had about Lincecum.

These are the expectations that have been put on Stephen Strasburg. Beckett, Clemens, and Lincecum are all exceptions, but Strasburg is expected to be an exception as well. On top of that, Stephen enters a situation where he is expected to be the savior, and everyone involved in scouting, drafting, and negotiating with him may be gone in a few months.

A big reason Strasburg went to San Diego State was to stay close to home, because he needed some support as he grew up some. By no means does Stephen have character issues, and he's certainly better prepared to handle a cross-country move now than he was three years ago. However, between moving far away from home, becoming a savior, becoming a millionaire overnight, and facing competition that will push him harder than ever before, Strasburg could use some support. Anyone could. A franchise in upheaval like the Nats right now aren't well equipped to give him that.

All things considered, Stephen Strasburg is set up to fail. In reality, he is among the best pitching prospects in recent memory, not far and away the best. From a production standpoint, he only caught Dustin Ackley this past season. It can't be overlooked that Ackley put up his numbers in the ACC, which is always one of the strongest baseball conferences in the nation. Ackley's higher level of production over a longer course of time, combined with the more realistic expectations surrounding him, and the history of position players panning out on a more consistent basis, make him a player I am more comfortable handing big money. Hence, I favored Ackley when I ranked college players, because I couldn't decide which one was actually a better prospect.

Strasburg's saving grace is his talent. He is good enough to beat the odds, and I hope he does. Just don't be shocked if he doesn't live up to the hype. Who could live up to what he is expected to do?

Breaking Down the Ackley Contract

I will warn you right from the get-go, this will be a very technical post. We're going to dig into the Collective Bargaining Agreement to understand exactly what the Mariners gave up when they gave Ackley a guaranteed major league deal. This will be a somewhat dense post, but I find baseball economics fascinating.

Dustin Ackley's contract is highly deceiving. It was originally reported that it's for $9.5 million. Then, it came out that it was $7.5 million with escalators. On top of all this, it is a major league deal. There is a bunch of technical language getting thrown around, and it's worth understanding. Digging in to Ackley's deal reveals that the M's hardly got a bargain, but also did some significant negotiating.

According to Jim Callis at Baseball America, here are the terms that Ackley agreed to:

• $6 million signing bonus
• MLB contract for 5 years (2009 - 2013)
• $1.5 million in guaranteed in salaries
• An additional $2.5 million is available based on how quickly Ackley reaches the majors

Let's start with the signing bonus. That's the easiest to understand. That's the money that is Dustin Ackley's once he signs his name. It's essentially a one-time lump sum. When it comes to the MLB draft and you hear a player "signs for 'x' amount of dollars," 99 times out of 100 that is the signing bonus. That's because draft picks are typically signed to minor league deals with a signing bonus.

Already, we can see why Ackley's deal is deceptive. Surely $6 million is well above MLB's recommended bonus for the second overall pick, but third pick overall Donovan Tate got a $6.25 million bonus.

The MLB contract is a big deal though. Tate did not get one, and few prospects get a guaranteed one straight out of the draft. To begin with, it requires the player to be added to the MLB 40-man roster. That means a team loses some roster flexibility while the player develops in the minor leagues. More importantly, from the player's perspective, it immediately puts them under the provisions of the Collective Bargaining Agreement.

What exactly does that mean?

It basically means a prospect is going to live the good life as they work towards the majors. Only players that have appeared in the majors, or are on a team's 40-man roster, are covered in the Collective Bargaining Agreement. All other players (the majority of minor-leaguers) are pretty much at the mercy of the franchise that controls them, until they are eligible for the rule 5 draft. Let's not get started on the Rule 5 draft here though.

Minor League Baseball's website says a minor leaguer makes at most $1,100 per month in their first season. After that, contracts are "up for negotiation."Assuming a player makes $1,100 a month for a six months (which is pushing it because a minor league season is more like five months), they will make $6,600. However, a player on his first major league contract, according to the CBA, must make a minimum of $32,500 in the minor leagues. So, to recap, a prospect not covered by the CBA gets $6,600 at most. A prospect covered by the CBA gets $32,500 at least. That's the difference a major league contract makes.

However, Ackley has it even better. He has a guaranteed $1.5 million in salaries for the duration of the contract, which averages out to $300,000 per year. That's well above the $32,500 minimum. However, it is also well below the $400,000 minimum major league salary. Hence, the $2.5 million "based on how fast Ackley makes it to the majors."

For this post's sake, let's assume that $2.5 million is spread evenly throughout the deal. That essentially makes it a $500,000 bonus per year for every year Ackley is in the majors. That would make his salary $800,000 per year for every year he is in the majors. That, of course is well above the $400,000 minimum.

Now it's time to throw out a hypothetical: What if Dustin Ackley had signed a more traditional contract? What if he had simply signed a minor league deal with a $6 million signing bonus?

We'll have to make some educated guesses. Let's say that Ackley spends all of 2010 in the minors, not even on the 40-man roster. Let's say he spends all of 2011 in the minors too, but on the 40-man roster. After that, we will assume he is in the majors, where he would earn the major league minimum through 2013. Even though at that point there will be a new CBA, we will assume the minimum salary stays at $400,000. In all likelihood, it will go up, but I'm trying to be as conservative as possible.

We'll say Ackley doesn't even play in 2009, and earns $5,000 in the minors in 2010. Then, he earns $32,500 in 2011. After that, he earns $400,000 for two seasons. That's five years (the same length as the deal he signed), and an additional $837,500 in salary paid to him. With the $6 million bonus, that's a total of $6,837,500.

Let's make a little more realistic estimate. Let's say Ackley spends all of 2010 in the minors, but is up in the majors halfway through 2011. Also, let's assume the minimum salary goes up to $425,000 for 2012 and beyond. Since Dustin is a top pick, let's say the M's give him $6,000 total in 2010. We also already know he will play in 2009, so let's give him $1,100. Then, he makes around $220,000 total splitting time between the minors and majors in 2011. The next two years, at $425,000 per year, Ackley makes $850,000 total. So, over 5 years, with the the $6 million bonus, Dustin Ackley makes a total of $7,077,100.

Consider the same hypothetical career track from the last paragraph with Ackley's actual deal. We'll estimate the prorated amount of $300,000 per year for 2009 to be around $60,000. Spending all of 2010 in the minors gives him $300,000. Splitting time between the majors and minors in 2011 comes to $550,000. Finally, for the last couple years, Ackley makes $800,000 annually. With the signing bonus, that comes to a grand total of $8,510,000.

More terms on Ackley's deal are not known right now, and the odds are he probably earns more in the back end of the deal. That would drive up the the total money he earns. Still, the difference between Ackley's MLB contract and what he would have received otherwise is likely in the neighborhood of $1.5-2.5 million dollars. It's hardly a bargain for the Mariners, but a portion of the money agreed to in the contract is money that Ackley would have earned anyway without the guaranteed MLB deal. Also, that extra $1.5-$2.5 million is spread over five years, making it easy to absorb.

Dusting Ackley's deal did not happen in a vacuum though. Scott Boras said he was going for Mark Teixeira-type money. Teixeira, when he was drafted in 2001, also got a guaranteed MLB contract. Furthermore, Ackley was one of three 2009 draftees to receive a Major League contract, along with top pick Stephen Strasburg and ninth pick Jacob Turner. All these deals were negotiated by Boras. Here is a look at them side by side. Estimated values are in italic:

	Teixeira	Ackley	Strasburg	Turner
Bonus	$4.5 mil	$6 mil	$7.5 mil	$4.7 mil
Year 1	N/A	$200K	$400K	N/A
Year 2	$250K	$250K	$2 mil	$800K
Year 3	$750K	$500K	$2.5 mil	$900K
Year 4	$1.5 mil	$850K	$3 mil	$1.1 mil
Year 5	$2.5 mil	$1.1 mil	N/A	$1.5 mil

The known terms of Turner's deal right now is that he makes anywhere between $800,000 to $2.15 million annually depending on how quickly he reaches the majors. There are also some options years, and a few opt out clauses I chose to neglect to keep this comparison somewhat simple. Furthermore, Turner's terms only start with the 2010 season (which is why year 1 in the table is marked "N/A"). For this comparison, I'm assuming Turner spends two and a half years in the minors. That's a very fast track for a high school pitcher like him, but he went to the Tigers, who brought up prep pick Rick Porcello after only one full season in the minors. I'm taking complete guesses on how Turner's contract escalates, in case you are wondering.

For Ackley's deal in the comparison, I decided to take guesses at how it might escalate (since it likely does). I assumed he makes the majors part way through the 2011 season. That's a full year ahead of Turner in this projection. My guesses on how Ackley's deal escalates are what cause the table's numbers to look different than my initial analysis, where I simply averaged total values over the length of the deal. You'll notice that the total in the table for Ackley comes to a little over $9 million, which is within range of my above analysis. The Year 1 total would be prorated, just as Strasburg's is.

Compared to other guaranteed MLB deals in draft history, Ackley's looks good. His total approaches Teixeira's, but the structure is noticeably different. The bonus is bigger, but this is also 2009 versus 2001. Inflation must be considered. Also, Ackley will only maximize his deal if he gets to the majors in a hurry - a provision that wasn't a part of Teixeira's initial deal, or Strasburg's for that matter.

By the way, any doubt that the Nationals want Strasburg in the majors on opening day 2010 at the latest should be gone. Just look at the deal he signed. Nobody is paid millions to develop in the minors. Boras knows that too. It's no mistake Strasburg's contract runs out after what will be presumably three full seasons in the majors. It preserves all of Stephen's arbitration years. In the end, Washington gave up all the years that they could have payed Strasburg the league minimum, and got no breaks in return. Talk about a player-friendly deal.

Strasburg is a special case though, at least in most people's eyes. What's more interesting is comparing Ackley's contract to Turner's. Dustin Ackley is a college position player, while Turner a high school pitcher. Clearly, Turner is a higher risk pick. He was also selected later than Dustin, albeit only four slots later. However, while Turner's bonus was smaller, he probably will have higher annual salaries than Ackley. That's remarkable, considering Turner will probably spend longer in the minors, and is a much higher risk to flame out.

In the end, Dustin Ackley got paid. He's a clear winner in the deal. Not only did he get a bonus way above slot recommendation, he got an MLB contract that will pay him above MLB minimum salaries to boot. Scott Boras represented him quite well.

The Mariners should be happy too though. Compared to the other MLB deals signed this year, Ackley's is the most conservative, even though he is the safest bet to pan out. Furthermore, Boras did not get a Teixeira deal, even though the money could be similar. Ackley will have to earn it though, because of the $2.5 million tied to when he makes the majors. That's a safeguard that wasn't in Teixeira's contract.

I'm not a fan of giving draft picks MLB contracts, but Ackley is worth it. The deal is reasonable. The M's had room on the roster right now. There is a decent chance Dustin would have forced his way on to the 40-man roster by as early as next year anyway. I'd still say Boras won these negotiations, but I'm not going to call the Mariners losers.

Franklin Signs; All About Ackley Now

Good news for the Mariners today (which they could use after a tough last couple days). First round pick Nick Franklin has signed. The shortstop received a $1.28 million signing bonus, which is a bit higher than I anticipated a few weeks ago. It is also about $100,000 over the recommended slot bonus, so all in all Nick Franklin should be considered the winner of these negotiations.

However, from the M's perspective, $100K is not all that much, and the team has been consistently signing their higher selections to bonuses slightly above the recommended amounts by Major League Baseball. More importantly, the Franklin signing leaves only top pick Dustin Ackley among the M's top selections yet to sign. That means they should be able to focus all attention on Ackley, which is important given that the signing deadline is this Monday.

Ackley is a Boras client, so it is not surprising that negotiations are coming down to the last minute. Boras is the agent for the top three picks in the draft (a group that of course includes Ackley), and none of them have signed.

As unsettling as going down to the wire is, I think the surest bet to sign among the trio is Ackley.

Donovan Tate, the third pick, is a prep star with a strong commitment to North Carolina for baseball and football. Tate was practicing with the Tar Heels football team, but has left because Boras is close to striking a deal with the Padres according to a report. Still, reporting to practice is more than a bargaining tactic. I think it will take San Diego some pretty serious cash to pry away Tate from college, especially with Boras negotiating. Considering the Padres are dumping money left and right, I wonder how much money they have to offer.

San Diego wouldn't have drafted Tate if they did not think they had the money to sign him though. Ultimately, it will likely come down to Tate weighing a college football career versus a guaranteed multi-million dollar signing bonus. Depending on how much Tate enjoys football, and how much he enjoyed practice, that could be a very tough decision.

Top pick Stephen Strasburg's negotiations are fairly well-publicized, and will become a major story over the next couple days as the deadline gets closer. The most current reports are that the Nationals have offered a record deal, but no agreement is imminent. It has been known for a full year that it would take a record contract to ink Strasburg; the only question is how much of a record it will be.

Although on some level it makes sense for Strasburg to sign, given he can't go any higher than number one overall, there are several factors to consider. Scouts think he is one of the greatest prospects of all-time, so he will go high again next year, and could/will demand a record contract again next year. By 2010, the economy will likely have recovered some (or at least stabilized), so teams may be willing to shell out more money. Furthermore, Strasburg and Boras in 2010 should not have to deal with an interim GM that could be replaced any day. The haphazard mess that is the Nats front office right now, combined with an uncertain economic climate, and Strasburg's lofty status among scouts, likely make the Strasburg negotiations uniquely difficult.

Then there is Dustin Ackley. Even if Strasburg signs, the hype over prep catcher Bryce Harper has already begun. He seems to be somewhere between the 2010 version of Stephen Strasburg and Josh Hamilton (remember Hamilton went first overall when he was drafted). The point is that Ackley has maximized his draft position. On top of that, he got drafted by an organization that needs bats, so he has the opportunity to move quickly if he performs. Plus, Jack Zduriencik has a terrific player development track record, and he has infused the Mariners with a remarkable amount of talent, stability, and vision already.

Between Jack Z, the M's resources, and how the 2010 draft looks early on, it should be clear to Scott Boras (and Dustin Ackley too) that Ackley will not find a better situation next year than the one he is in right now. Negotiations will go down to the wire, but a deal will be reached. It makes too much sense for all sides involved. Expect it to be well over the suggested slot value, but expect it to happen sometime Monday evening.