Miguel Cabrera may just win the triple crown. He leads the American League in batting average and RBIs. He is tied with Josh Hamilton for the league lead in home runs at 43. The last player to win the triple crown in either league is Carl Yastrzemski, back in 1967. Cabrera would become only the 13th triple crown winner since the birth of the World Series.
Wrapped up in the Cabrera triple crown race is an MVP debate, which has increasingly been colored as a battle between history and modern analysis. Traditionalists supposedly prefer and respect the historical glory of the triple crown more than sabermetricians, while the number-crunchers say that focusing on antiquated hitting statistics sells the rightful MVP recipient, Mike Trout, woefully short.
Get a taste of the debate for yourself, if you wish, via the internets. Arguments for Miguel Cabrera tend to romanticize what a triple crown represents. Arguments for Mike Trout tend to feel sound and logical, or cold and calculated, depending on your preferred view/adjectives.
I tend to live more on the sabermetric side of things, but the argument for the triple crown compelled me to investigate. What does it mean to win the triple crown, and what might that mean for Miguel Cabrera in the 2012 MVP race?
Smoak's Swing no Smoke Screen?
Justin Smoak is on a roll in September, seemingly out of nowhere. He has performed like the first basemen he teased us fans into imagining he could (or would) be after his strong start last season. I want to believe Smoak's September success is more than a mirage, maybe even proof that his altered swing is working out.
I went and broke down Smoak's batted ball data for each month this season. I noticed his BABIP is easily the highest in September out of all his months, and sometimes BABIP suggests good or bad luck in limited sample sizes. However, based on the batted ball data I present in the following chart, there is much more than luck involved with Smoak's surge:
I went and broke down Smoak's batted ball data for each month this season. I noticed his BABIP is easily the highest in September out of all his months, and sometimes BABIP suggests good or bad luck in limited sample sizes. However, based on the batted ball data I present in the following chart, there is much more than luck involved with Smoak's surge:
Comparing Mariners to Contenders
It is that magical time of year where it is hard to think up meaningful posts. The Mariners season is essentially over. They have assured themselves a better record than last year (woohoo) and would have to really fall flat on their face in the last week and a half to stumble past 90 losses. The Mariners, in all likelihood, will have a losing record that is not catastrophically memorable. The tale of their season has been written.
The Mariners just finished up playing the Orioles, a team in playoff contention. Baltimore had gone over a decade since being relevant. A winning record would have been an accomplishment for them, but they have come out of nowhere to legitimately challenge the beasts of the AL East. Could the Mariners pull a similar trick against Texas and Los Angeles of Anaheim (and dare I say Oakland?)
It is clear enough that the Mariners are not good enough to contend as is. How far away are they though? I decided to investigate this question by adding up WAR totals. I looked at American League teams with a better than 50 percent chance of reaching the playoffs and compared their starters to the Mariners. All numbers in the table below are WAR totals. For the Mariners, these are simple sums. For the contenders I calculated WAR totals for each team and then averaged them. All players are sorted by season WAR totals. Below are the results:
The Mariners just finished up playing the Orioles, a team in playoff contention. Baltimore had gone over a decade since being relevant. A winning record would have been an accomplishment for them, but they have come out of nowhere to legitimately challenge the beasts of the AL East. Could the Mariners pull a similar trick against Texas and Los Angeles of Anaheim (and dare I say Oakland?)
It is clear enough that the Mariners are not good enough to contend as is. How far away are they though? I decided to investigate this question by adding up WAR totals. I looked at American League teams with a better than 50 percent chance of reaching the playoffs and compared their starters to the Mariners. All numbers in the table below are WAR totals. For the Mariners, these are simple sums. For the contenders I calculated WAR totals for each team and then averaged them. All players are sorted by season WAR totals. Below are the results: