This one's for Allen. He hasn't enjoyed
Brandon League's recent inability to save one-run ballgames.* Allen asked me what's wrong with League, and I said nothing. We went back and forth for a bit, and I steadfastly stuck to my initial statement. However, I have to admit that I haven't seen League pitch much this season (I follow on the radio for the most part), and I didn't have any numbers in front of me as Allen and I texted back and forth.
*
I haven't either, for the record.
I've looked at the numbers. Brandon League is different, but he's still Brandon League. The only thing that might be wrong is League's pitch selection, but that's nothing new.
Sample size is a significant issue with early season reliever data, but that's only if we are worried with predictions. Data helps us paint an exact picture of what's already happened, and that's at the heart of what Allen asked anyway. So, let's look at the numbers so far.
There are concerns in Brandon League's 2012 performance. Through 14 innings, his K/9 is 5.14, which would easily be a career low. His BB/9 is 3.86, which would be about a walk per 9 innings above his career average. League's ground ball rate is currently at 48.8%, and if that holds, it would be the first time he posts a rate below 50%. These are all troubling numbers.
However, League has counteracted the issues with some good fortune (or a newfound skill?) He has stranded 77.8% of baserunners so far, which is a rate 10% better than what we've seen out of him his past couple seasons as a Mariners. Also, with more fly balls, League should be more susceptible to home runs. However, he is yet to give up one!
The pros and cons of Brandon League's 2012 performance have roughly balanced each other. His ERA is at 2.57, which would be his lowest ERA as a Mariners, if it holds. The numbers suggest that Brandon League has been a bit more of a heart attack this season, but ultimately as effective.
The stranded runners and lazy fly balls won't last forever though. League has some concerns. The issues are connected, and hopefully can be fixed.