Cuts Galore; Roster Taking Shape

A couple rounds of cuts this week leave the Mariners with 40 players left in camp. First, the cuts:

INEVITABLE: C Mike Dowd, C Jesus Sucre, 1B Ji-Man Choi, "1B" Jesus Montero, INF Carlos Triunfel, INF Ty Kelly, INF Chris Taylor, INF Nate Tenbrink, OF Xavier Avery, LHP Nick Hill, RHP Logan Bawcom, RHP Logan Kensing, RHP Matt Palmer

No offense to anyone in the "inevitables." Several of them have potential MLB careers. These were all players on the wrong side of the numbers game and more or less around for the experience of big league camp until it was time to get serious.

SOMEWHAT INTERESTING: LHP Bobby LaFramboise, OF James Jones

I though LaFramboise might have a chance to crack the opening day roster since Oliver Perez is now in Arizona. I thought that James Jones would eventually get cut but not for a while longer with all the playing time he got. I'm actually relieved Jones got cut at this point because I wondered if Lloyd McClendon was too in love with him. He has things to learn in the minors.

So who will make the team?

ON THE DL: Hisashi Iwakuma, Taijuan Walker, maybe Stephen Pryor (still recovering from last season). That brings us down to 37 players.

LOCKS (18): C John Buck, C Mike Zunino, 1B Justin Smoak, 2B Robinson Cano, 3B Kyle Seager, INF Willie Bloomquist, OF Dustin Ackley, OF Corey Hart, OF Logan Morrison, OF Michael Saunders, LHP Charlie Furbush, RHP Scott Baker, RHP Danny Farquhar, RHP Felix Hernandez, RHP Yoervis Medina, RHP Erasmo Ramirez, RHP Fernando Rodney, RHP Tom Wilhelmsen

I know Scott Baker is a non-roster invitee, but he just got moved from a start against the Angels to play in a minor league game. The M's open up the season against the Angels, and Baker has already faced them twice. Doubtful these facts have nothing to do with the change.

The remaining battles:

Shortstop: Brad Miller vs. Nick Franklin - I guess this is a battle because the Mariners say it is. Brad Miller should have been the favorite coming into the spring, and even if he wasn't he's had a very good spring that should shore up his standing. I almost included Miller as a lock. Nick Franklin will go to AAA unless/until he is traded.

Capable centerfielder on the bench: Abe Almonte vs. Endy Chavez - The cuts have at least made this battle clear, unless you also believe Cole Gillespie could play center field regularly. Quite honestly, I almost made Almonte a lock for this spot because he's already on the roster and Chavez quietly slipped to below replacement level last season and he's not getting any younger.

Fourth and fifth starters in the rotation: LHP James Paxton, LHP Randy Wolf, RHP Blake Beavan - I think Paxton nearly has a rotation spot nailed down given the control he's shown this spring. Beavan and Wolf are in an interesting duel though...or sort of interesting, at least. The reality is that the whoever wins this spring training battle will get booted from the rotation once Taijuan Walker or Hisashi Iwakuma is healthy, and neither project to sit out a ton of starts to begin the season. Still, Wolf vs. Beavan is at least too close to call. Beavan has outperformed Wolf, for what it's worth, but Wolf is more experienced and left-handed.

Bullpen lefty: Lucas Luetge vs. Joe Beimel - Again, younger guy verses veteran, though in a more limited role on the team. No idea how McClendon will choose with this one, though I'd simply stick with Luetge since he's already on the 40-man roster and Beimel isn't.

The last bullpen slot: This position could go to the odd man out in the rotation race or one of the remaining righties I am about to talk about. Both Zach Miner and Dominic Leone have appeared five times, which is tied for the most appearances by any M's pitcher this spring. It's a seven-way tie, so I don't want to make that too big of a deal, but playing time suggests that McClendon wants to see these guys for some reason. They have both done well for themselves, though I still like Carson Smith even more and he has performed very well in his 3.2 innings.

If you count up all the players you'll realized I totally ignored some that are still in camp. Those are folks I expect to go sooner rather than later.

There simply aren't interesting battles in camp this spring, unless you count the faux battle between Brad Miller and Nick Franklin. The other reality is that the winners of these battles simply get the first crack at the job and there will be movement during the season. We already know Iwakuma and Walker will be coming back, likely before April is over.

Still, there is something special about an opening day roster, and most positions have gone from an unruly glut to a few extra names after this week's cuts. The 2014 Mariners are taking shape.

Spring Training Update

The Mariners looked pretty good last spring, so their good start this year is nice but hardly a harbinger of things to come. Still, winning always beats losing - and I will write that line even though the M's lost pretty badly today. Overall, the spring has to be considered a success. I'm still skeptical of this team's talent though, which keeps me from getting real jazzed. Here are some of the more interesting developments as I see them at this point:

Plot thickening in the outfield

James Jones has emerged as the story of spring training thus far. He's hitting pretty well and Lloyd McClendon loves him. It shows up in his quotes and the amount of playing time he's giving Jones.

For the record, I don't think James Jones should make the Mariners. He's got holes in his swing and he's yet to really play in AAA. The junk-ball veterans that often litter AAA pitching staffs will find Jones's holes. I think he's got some thing to learn in Tacoma that would serve him well.

With that said, Jones can play center field, and the Mariners are quite thin at the position. Xavier Avery can probably play some center field. So can Abe Almonte. However, both of those players aren't hitting like Jones in spring training, and neither have the tools that Jones possesses either.

I would still go with Almonte as the fourth outfielder, but Jones has a case at this point. He's outperforming everyone who was thought to have a chance at the fourth outfielder spot, and McClendon has clearly taken note. The outfield depth chart is getting rewritten with each game, and it's clear that Jones will shoot up it when all is said and done. The only question is how far.

The rotation race

Only seven pitchers have started a game in spring training for the Mariners; five will crack the opening day rotation. So the real question is who are the two odd men out at the moment?

I say one is Brandon Maurer. He has been roughed up a bit, has a start and a relief appearance, and probably started the spring as an outsider looking in.

The second man out is tougher to figure out. The next worst performer (in very limited innings) is Randy Wolf, but he has a ton of experience and potentially won't take a minor league assignment if that means anything to the M's. He is likely battling with James Paxton and Blake Beavan. Paxton has the most upside of the three, and at this point he will likely break camp with the M's if they decide he doesn't have something major worth developing in the minors some more before he takes on a role in the majors.

So, the real question is if Lloyd McClendon would prefer Wolf or Beavan. Personally, I'd probably favor Wolf just a tad, mostly because he is a veteran and left-handed. But I wouldn't complain about Beavan cracking the opening day rotation. Beavan is organizational depth if you ask me, but the Mariners are going to open the season with two starting pitchers on the shelf. I'm totally fine with Blake Beavan as the sixth or seventh starter on the team depth chart.

Maybe the more interesting sub-story here is that I think Erasmo Ramirez and Scott Baker already have cinched up roster spots, given their early performances and the injuries in the rotation.

So, if you are looking for guys to watch for in the box scores, basically every starting pitcher is interesting, plus James Jones and his direct competition (likely Abe Almonte and Xavier Avery).

Does Loe Have a Look in his Eyes?

I listened to my first Mariners game of the year on Sunday, which was awesome. The first action I catch is always soothing and refreshing to my baseball-starved ears. It was even nicer that the Mariners battered an aged Freddy Garcia and dispatched the Padres handily.

I also caught some of the pre-game show, where Rick Rizzs asked Eric Wedge about Saturday's ballgame. In particular, he asked about the pitchers, which included Taijuan Walker and Danny Hultzen looking quite good, not to mention starting rotation candidate Blake Beavan rolling out a new-look windup with success.

Yet the pitcher that Wedge described as most impressive was Kameron Loe. I'm dead serious. Wedge couldn't get enough of the action on Loe's sinker. Wedge talked about that more than Hultzen throwing seven pitches (all strikes) in an inning of work that included two strikeouts. He about talked about Loe's sinker more than the easy 97 miles per hour that Walker popped on the radar gun.

Imagine Blake Beavan as Rainiers Closer

An interesting metamorphosis may have happened in Baltimore near the end of the regular season. We will get confirmation this season. Tommy Hunter starting throwing really, really hard. Below is a graph of Hunter's average fastball velocities in every appearance his whole career to date. Notice the spike at the tail end:

image from Fangraphs

Hunter made the majors only a year after the Rangers made him a supplemental first round draft pick. He looked like a solid starting pitcher, but then he didn't seem to progress. Hunter was eventually traded to the Orioles last offseason, where it was expected he would begin to bounce between AAA and the majors as an insurance policy at the back end of a rotation. He had been, in essence, pigeon-holed as a replacement-level innings-eater.

Then Baltimore stuck Hunter in the bullpen, and his velocity increased about 6 miles an hour. It took his average velocity from the 90-91mph range, to 96-97mph. The spike completely changed the nature of Hunter's fastball, which in turn changed his approach. He can overpower hitters he used to have to out think.

Tommy Hunter may or may not have everything to do with Blake Beavan. I'd like to find out if Beavan can follow Hunter's example or not.

Progress Report: Pitchers

Congratulations to you for making it through a month and a half of Mariners' baseball! If you're reading this, you haven't completely given up on the M's this year (yet). You also haven't gouged your eyes out from watching this team throughout the roller coaster ride it has been since they opened the year in Japan back in March. Since then, we have seen winning and losing streaks, blown saves, and the Athletics. Boy, have we seen alot of Athletics baseball. In fact, Mariners fans have probably been to more Athletics games than Athletics fans have this year (Zing!).

Since we've been through more than a month of baseball this year, I think it's time for a progress report. Remember back when you got progress reports in school? Remember when you would try to check the mail before your parents did so that way they never knew about that 'F' you got in Home Economics? Well, this is nothing like that. This is just me throwing out grades which I feel approximate how well the players have done so far and are in no way scientific. Simply put, these are my opinions. Feel free to disagree in the comments, I love a good argument.

For part one of this series, I'll focus on the pitching staff.

Cliff Lee Traded

Cliff Lee, and his borderline mythical tenure with the Mariners, is over almost as abruptly as it began. Today was clearly a frenzy, and he is now property of the Texas Rangers, along with Mark Lowe, for four players that I will touch on in the following paragraphs.

I've never hidden my attraction to Cliff Lee, the marvelous pitching ace. I didn't want him to go. I wanted him to be pried out of the M's hands with a deal that couldn't be turned down. As luck has it, he might have.

Justin Smoak is a legitimate first baseman for the future. He was the starting first baseman for the Rangers, but he is only 23 years old, and in the midst of his rookie campaign. The best is yet to come with Smoak, but he instantly becomes the starting first baseman here, and the best power threat aside from Russell Branyan.

As a brief side note, I am a little surprised that Branyan did not go to Texas. They need a starting first baseman. I thought that would have made sense for both sides with Smoak included. Why they wanted Lowe, whose season is already over, puzzles me some. From the M's perspective, it does not bother me that he was included.

Blake Beavan is the other significant piece that the Mariners got in return. He is a huge right-hander (listed at 6'7" and 250 pounds), but he hasn't struck many hitters out. However, the production overall is rather good, and he is only 21 years old with AA experience. I think Beaven is still a year away, but that's not that far away. He is a safe bet to make the majors, and be a solid starting pitcher. I don't think Beaven will ever be a star, but he will be quietly good, especially if he plays in a big ballpark with a good defense behind him.

In some ways, the most interesting piece is Josh Lueke. He is a 25-year-old righty blowing hitters away out of minor league bullpens. He is a little old for the levels he has played at, so take the eye-popping numbers with a grain of salt. However, one way or another, Lueke and Lowe are probably tied together in the deal. Did the Rangers want Mark Lowe bad enough that they were willing to add Lueke, or did the Mariners want Lueke bad enough that they were willing to give up Lowe? I am not sure, but my educated guess is that the final haggling was done over these two players.

Last, and probably least, is Matt Lawson. According to scouts, the guy plays a mean second base, and according to his hitting numbers, he knows a thing or two about what to do at the plate. Looking at his stature and production though, he set off Tug Hulett alarms all over my head. I am glad he did, because I have been looking for an excuse to link to Tug's stats all year long. He has fallen off a cliff this year in AAA Pawtucket, and for whatever reason, it's 15 seconds that make me feel good inside every time I look at them. I digress. Getting back to a meaningful point, Lawson profiles in a similar role as Hulett - the type of guy organizations love to have hanging around AAA, or their bench, or around their starting lineup for a couple weeks in a pinch, but that's about it. Considering the M's best options in this role are aging veterans Josh Wilson and Chris Woodward, Lawson was a worthwhile throw-in.

The price tag I put on Lee a couple weeks ago was the equivalent of a few first-round draft picks, plus something else. That is what would make a deal worth considering. Smoak and Beavan alone are worth more than a couple first-round draft picks (not surprisingly, both were first-rounders themselves). Neither are far from being contributing MLB players, and I personally think Smoak has a chance to be just a tick below Mark Teixeira. Their skillsets and paths to the majors are rather similar.

Smoak and Beaven for Lee, straight up, is a deal I strongly consider. Toss in Matt Lawson, and that's probably enough for me to bite. Add Lowe and Lueke to the deal, and my feelings don't change much. Lowe is probably better, but I'm not sure. His mounting injury history worries me. Even if Lueke is never as good, if he is solid for three or four years, it was probably worth trading him for Lowe straight up at this point of their respective careers.

All in all, without knowing about other offers, I have a hard time believing there was a better one than this on the table. The best player the Mariners got in return immediately fills the biggest black hole in the organization (with apologies to catcher, but I still have hope for Adam Moore). Not only is the price fair, but the talent acquired plugs holes. That is the definition of a good fit.

Jack Zdurienciek and friends got this deal right. They maximized their leverage, and got a package that made moving Cliff Lee worthwhile. It is going to be painful watching Lee anchor a Texas-sized playoff run in Arlington this year, but imagine all the Rangers fans that will cringe when Smoak starts assaulting the Hit It Here Cafe.