Forever Young

Chris Young

The Mariners signed RHP Chris Young to an MLB deal this morning, meaning the Mariners finally signed a starting pitcher! He likely thrusts either Blake Beavan or Roenis Elias out of a rotation spot (odds are it will be Beavan). The Mariners made room on the roster by designating LHP Bobby LaFramboise for assignment.

First, a note on LaFramboise. He's a side-arming lefty reliever who has been very productive in AAA the past two seasons. He got a quick look from the M's last year and in 10 innings gave up quite a few runs. However, he also struck out over a batter an inning without many walks. He's a capable bullpen arm and I'll be very surprised if he sneaks through waivers. Somebody will claim him, and he might even get some legitimate big league time depending on who claims him. Hector Noesi seemed like a more logical DFA candidate, given that he is out of options, seems to fit the role that Chris Young will now fill, and has struggled more than LaFramboise the last two seasons. I won't get up in arms yet though; it seems likely that there will be more casualties to get non-roster guys on the roster.

Young got cut loose by the Nationals just days ago so he wasn't an option when the Mariners signed (and cut loose) veterans like Scott Baker and Randy Wolf. Young is more interesting than either Baker or Wolf, and he just might be better too.

The first thing that stands out about Young is him standing - literally. He is 6'10", the same height as Randy Johnson. The height likely makes him more True to the Blue than either Baker or Wolf, both of whom are diminutive in comparison. That's about all that Young and the Big Unit have in common though.

Young is now tower of power on the mound. His fastball topped out in the low 90s when he cracked the majors back in 2007, and averaged a stunningly low 84.6 miles an hour in 2012. He didn't pitch at all in the majors in 2013 thanks to major shoulder problems. Furthermore, Young combines his soft pitches with extreme fly ball tendencies - so extreme, in fact, that he has a lower ground ball percentage than any other pitcher in the past decade.

Ladies and gentleman, your fifth starter! A 6'10" monolith to fly balls, finesse pitching, and shoulder problems. In all honesty I make this move sound worse than it probably is, though it is every bit as absurd as I make it sound.

Chris Young's injury history the past four seasons very strongly suggests that he will break down at some point this season. That's probably okay though. What the Mariners really need to know is that he can make it through April, and since he's healthy right now that's not a bad bet to make.

Also, velocity has never been a big part of Chris Young's game. That 85-mph heater in 2012 was good for a 4.15 ERA and 0.9 WAR over 115 innings with the Mets. Moreover, his only bad season was an injury-marred 2009 campaign (other than the missing seasons he has accumulated with injuries.) There are reasons to believe that the Mariners will get some solid starts out of Chris Young until he inevitably gets hurt.

In the end I wonder what makes Chris Young more desirable than Scott Baker or Randy Wolf. I will say that Young performed better in Nationals camp than Baker did with the Mariners. He's had a year off like Wolf, but was more productive before his injury than Wolf was with his, and Young's shoulder woes are arguably less impactful than Wolf's Tommy John surgery. However, it's worth noting that Chris Young got an MLB deal from the Mariners, which is a much higher commitment than the non-roster deals both Baker and Wolf signed.

Chris Young is a Mariners starting pitcher as of today. That's probably a good thing despite the odd, twisting path that got Young and the Mariners to this point. There is a good chance he pitches better than Beavan, Wolf, or Baker would have. I don't understand how the Mariners justify giving him the money they wouldn't hand Randy Wolf, but whatever. The Mariners added a starting pitcher today instead of dropping one and that's a positive development.

Cuts Galore; Roster Taking Shape

A couple rounds of cuts this week leave the Mariners with 40 players left in camp. First, the cuts:

INEVITABLE: C Mike Dowd, C Jesus Sucre, 1B Ji-Man Choi, "1B" Jesus Montero, INF Carlos Triunfel, INF Ty Kelly, INF Chris Taylor, INF Nate Tenbrink, OF Xavier Avery, LHP Nick Hill, RHP Logan Bawcom, RHP Logan Kensing, RHP Matt Palmer

No offense to anyone in the "inevitables." Several of them have potential MLB careers. These were all players on the wrong side of the numbers game and more or less around for the experience of big league camp until it was time to get serious.

SOMEWHAT INTERESTING: LHP Bobby LaFramboise, OF James Jones

I though LaFramboise might have a chance to crack the opening day roster since Oliver Perez is now in Arizona. I thought that James Jones would eventually get cut but not for a while longer with all the playing time he got. I'm actually relieved Jones got cut at this point because I wondered if Lloyd McClendon was too in love with him. He has things to learn in the minors.

So who will make the team?

ON THE DL: Hisashi Iwakuma, Taijuan Walker, maybe Stephen Pryor (still recovering from last season). That brings us down to 37 players.

LOCKS (18): C John Buck, C Mike Zunino, 1B Justin Smoak, 2B Robinson Cano, 3B Kyle Seager, INF Willie Bloomquist, OF Dustin Ackley, OF Corey Hart, OF Logan Morrison, OF Michael Saunders, LHP Charlie Furbush, RHP Scott Baker, RHP Danny Farquhar, RHP Felix Hernandez, RHP Yoervis Medina, RHP Erasmo Ramirez, RHP Fernando Rodney, RHP Tom Wilhelmsen

I know Scott Baker is a non-roster invitee, but he just got moved from a start against the Angels to play in a minor league game. The M's open up the season against the Angels, and Baker has already faced them twice. Doubtful these facts have nothing to do with the change.

The remaining battles:

Shortstop: Brad Miller vs. Nick Franklin - I guess this is a battle because the Mariners say it is. Brad Miller should have been the favorite coming into the spring, and even if he wasn't he's had a very good spring that should shore up his standing. I almost included Miller as a lock. Nick Franklin will go to AAA unless/until he is traded.

Capable centerfielder on the bench: Abe Almonte vs. Endy Chavez - The cuts have at least made this battle clear, unless you also believe Cole Gillespie could play center field regularly. Quite honestly, I almost made Almonte a lock for this spot because he's already on the roster and Chavez quietly slipped to below replacement level last season and he's not getting any younger.

Fourth and fifth starters in the rotation: LHP James Paxton, LHP Randy Wolf, RHP Blake Beavan - I think Paxton nearly has a rotation spot nailed down given the control he's shown this spring. Beavan and Wolf are in an interesting duel though...or sort of interesting, at least. The reality is that the whoever wins this spring training battle will get booted from the rotation once Taijuan Walker or Hisashi Iwakuma is healthy, and neither project to sit out a ton of starts to begin the season. Still, Wolf vs. Beavan is at least too close to call. Beavan has outperformed Wolf, for what it's worth, but Wolf is more experienced and left-handed.

Bullpen lefty: Lucas Luetge vs. Joe Beimel - Again, younger guy verses veteran, though in a more limited role on the team. No idea how McClendon will choose with this one, though I'd simply stick with Luetge since he's already on the 40-man roster and Beimel isn't.

The last bullpen slot: This position could go to the odd man out in the rotation race or one of the remaining righties I am about to talk about. Both Zach Miner and Dominic Leone have appeared five times, which is tied for the most appearances by any M's pitcher this spring. It's a seven-way tie, so I don't want to make that too big of a deal, but playing time suggests that McClendon wants to see these guys for some reason. They have both done well for themselves, though I still like Carson Smith even more and he has performed very well in his 3.2 innings.

If you count up all the players you'll realized I totally ignored some that are still in camp. Those are folks I expect to go sooner rather than later.

There simply aren't interesting battles in camp this spring, unless you count the faux battle between Brad Miller and Nick Franklin. The other reality is that the winners of these battles simply get the first crack at the job and there will be movement during the season. We already know Iwakuma and Walker will be coming back, likely before April is over.

Still, there is something special about an opening day roster, and most positions have gone from an unruly glut to a few extra names after this week's cuts. The 2014 Mariners are taking shape.

Justin Upton's Rejection a Shame

Justin Upton rejected a trade to the Mariners a couple days ago. This is the biggest news of the whole offseason for the Mariners, which sums up how the offseason has felt. The Mariners seems to have options, but none of them seem to happen.

The rumored package to get Upton was headlined by Taijuan Walker, and filled out with Charlie Furbush, Stephen Pryor, and Nick Franklin.

Basically, I whole-heartedly agree with Dave Cameron's analysis. This was a fair trade for the Mariners. It would have hurt to see Walker leave, but great to see Upton in the M's lineup. Trades are trades, not free acquisitions of talent. A team loses something to gain something else.

This deal made incredible sense for the Mariners, particularly in light of who is on the roster right now.

Hanrahan, Melancon, and Bullpens

The Red Sox and Pirates officially completed a trade that was more or less done a few days before Christmas. Joel Hanrahan goes to Boston, either as the closer or insurance for oft-injured closer Andrew Bailey, and several players often characterized as spare parts go to the Pirates. One of those spare parts, Mark Melancon, happens to be the bullpen arm that Hanrahan more or less directly replaces on the Red Sox roster.

The idea is that Hanrahan upgrades Boston's bullpen. It is debatable if he actually will though. The fact that this trade happened suggests a team with a surplus of successful bullpens, like the Mariners may have at the trade deadline, could swing some interesting trades.

2012 AFL Wrap-Up

I wrote an Arizona Fall League preview when rosters were announced back at the end of August. The league finished up play a few weeks ago, and the weekend after Thanksgiving seemed like a decent time see how M's prospects fared. The predictions/questions I had back in August now have answers:

Mariners Make Flurry of Minor Moves

There was a mini firestorm of moves across baseball yesterday because baseball teams procrastinate. Yesterday was the last day to add players and protect them from the Rule 5 draft. Every move the Mariners made (and everyone else for that matter) must be looked through with the Rule 5 draft in mind, because it is the reason for all the movement on what would have otherwise been the latest, slow-as-molasses offseason day in baseball.

I will go in reverse order from how things are usually reported, because it helps make more sense of what happened. Here are the players the Mariners added to their 40-man roster yesterday:

Kuma And Ollie Coming Back

The Mariners hit free agency with the pitching staff in solid shape, thanks to keeping Hisashi Iwakuma and Oliver Perez before either hit the open market. Iwakuma got a two-year deal with a third-year option. Perez got a one-year contract with performance incentives.

I won't spend much time writing about either deal because there isn't much to say. Both Iwakuma and Perez finished 2012 strong and the deals will look nice if they carry their success into 2013.

Iwakuma was a logical fit in the rotation, given his familiarity with the team already, and his reasonable $6.5 million price tag annually for only two or three years. Iwakuma should join Felix, Jason Vargas, and Erasmo Ramirez as "locks" for the rotation, and the Mariners should be able to find an in-house option for the fifth spot from their minor league pitching depth. That projects to be a respectable rotation in my eyes. Felix is amazing, and everyone else should keep their team in games (provided the teams scores

Felix still needs a true sidekick for a formidable 1-2 punch before the Mariners rotation is really good. Iwakuma isn't that, but Taijuan Walker or Danny Hultzen might be in the next few years. Iwakuma can bridge the gap until the youth is ready to shine.

Personally, I wouldn't have signed Oliver Perez, but I'm not about to quibble over a $1.5 million commitment. Charlie Furbush established himself as the first lefty in the bullpen, so Perez is redundant - especially with Bobby LaFramboise and Brian Moran looking like serviceable bullpen lefties in AAA Tacoma for the league minimum. The Mariners did not need to bring Perez back, but I suppose he also costs next-to-nothing by MLB standards.

I will write more when the Mariners find themselves some hitters.

2012 Fall Leaguers

The Arizona Fall League is a like a bonus month of minor league baseball where every team picks the players they want to send the most. As a result, the fall league often features many of baseball's most promising prospects. It's almost like a real-life prospect fantasy league. The rosters were announced on Wednesday.

The Mariners will send eight players to the Arizona Fall League. They are listed below with some brief comments on what they might stand to gain, and what to look for out of them: